Member Briefing April 23, 2024
Siena Poll – New Yorkers Weigh in on Trump Trial, Biden and Hochul Job Approval and Other Issues
Sixty percent of New Yorkers say they are paying a great deal or some attention to the criminal trial in which former President Donald Trump is accused of falsifying business records. By 54-30%, they say the trial is ‘legitimate’ – the view of 77% of Democrats and 44% of independents – rather than a ‘witch hunt,’ the view of 66% of Republicans, according to a Siena College poll of New York State registered voters released Monday. Democrats make up just under half of all New York State voters, while Republicans account for 22% and party-unaffiliated voters 23%.
- Governor Kathy Hochul has her lowest ever favorability rating, 40-49%, down from 41-46% in February. Her job approval dropped from 48-47% in February to now 45-49%, her worst approval rating in a Siena College poll.
- Strong bipartisan majorities support safeguarding access to IVF (75-11%), enhancing protections for the LGBTQ community (69-24%), and requiring high school athletes to only compete with others of the same sex they were assigned at birth (66-27%).
- President Joe Biden has 45-52% favorability rating, down slightly from 46-50% in February, while his job approval rating also fell slightly and stands at 45-55%, from 45-52%.
- Trump has a 37-59% favorability rating, little changed from 37-58% in February.
- New Yorkers oppose the MTA’s congestion pricing toll plan 63-25%, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
- The vast majority of New Yorkers, 82%, continue to say the influx of migrants is a serious problem. And majorities continue to disapprove of the job that Mayor Adams, Governor Hochul and the Biden Administration are doing to address the migrant issue.
- A majority still say over the last year, crime in the state has gotten worse, and a plurality say crime in their community has stayed about the same. About 60% of voters still say they’re concerned about being a crime victim.
Read more at The Siena College Research Institute
Leading Economic Indicators Fell Slightly in March
The leading indicators for the U.S. economy fell in March, just a month after posting the first increase in two years, but there’s little sign that U.S. growth is slackening. The index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.3% last month, the Conference Board said Thursday. The leading index is a gauge designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. The index had risen slightly in February to mark the first increase since February 2022. It was the third-longest negative stretch ever. Despite the monthly decline in the LEI, the index is no longer signaling a recession.
Digging into this report's monthly moves, stock prices continued to lead the charge and the LEI by 0.13 percentage points (pp) in March. The positive contribution marks the fifth straight month of gains. While markets have seen some recent softness, credit conditions remain accommodative. The Leading Credit Index added 0.09 pp to the LEI in March. Beyond the financial sector, economic conditions look mixed. Average weekly hours worked by production workers in the manufacturing industry have inched up over the past few months, leading to a 0.06pp contribution. Manufacturers have also edged up their capacity utilization as new orders have awakened in recent months. The new orders component of the ISM manufacturing index broke into expansionary territory in March, yet it remains below its long-term average and thus continues to weigh on the LEI (-0.09pp).
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel and Hamas: The Latest News – The Guardian
- Tent Compound Rises in Khan Younis as Israel Prepares for Rafah Offensive - AP
- Israeli Troops Storm Back Into Eastern Khan Younis - Reuters
- Europe Needs to ‘Wake Up’ and Face the Iran Threat, Says Israel’s President - Politico
- U.S. May Sanction Controversial IDF Unit Netzah Yehuda—And Netanyahu Promises Fight – Forbes
- Israel’s Military Spy Chief Quits, First to Shoulder Blame for Hamas Attack - WSJ
- EU and US Impose Sanctions on Extremist Settlers Over Violence in West Bank – Politico
- Columbia University Cancels Classes Over Protests - Newsweek
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation in Gaza – Institute for the Study of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack on Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukraine and Russia: The Latest News – The Guardian
- Russia Warns of Direct Clash with West Over Ukraine – Reuters
- What’s in the House Aid Package for Ukraine and Israel? - NPR
- Poland: We’re Ready to Host Nuclear Weapons - Politico
- Russia Claims Second Gain in Two Days in Ukraine's Donetsk Region - Reuters
- NATO Ally Confirms F-16 to Ukraine as 'Entire Fleet' Decommissioned - Newsweek
- U.S. Aid Is a Lifeline for Ukraine’s Struggle to Hold Off Defeat - WSJ
- Ukraine ‘Will Have a Chance at Victory’ With New US Aid, Zelenskyy Says – Politico
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine – Institute for the Study of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- India is Holding a Mammoth Election With Nearly a Billion Voters - BBC
- Papua New Guinea PM Slams Joe Biden Over ‘Cannibals’ Comment - Politico
- Toxic: How the Search for the Origins of COVID-19 Turned Politically Poisonous - AP
- India’s Broken Education System Threatens Its Superpower Dreams - WSJ
- Three Suspected Chinese Agents Arrested in Germany, 2 in UK - BBC
- Haiti's Capital Under Gang Attacks Ahead of Government Transition – Reuters
- Finland Long Believed It Could Tame Russia. Now Moscow Is Enemy No. 1. - WSJ
- Egypt Reclaims 3,400-Year-Old Stolen Statue of King Ramses II – Reuters
Policy and Politics
Biden Marks Earth Day by Announcing $7 Billion in Federal Solar Power Grants, Expanded ‘Climate Corps’
President Joe Biden is marking Earth Day by announcing $7 billion in federal grants for residential solar projects serving 900,000-plus households in low- and middle-income communities. He also plans to expand his New Deal-style American Climate Corps green jobs training program. The grants are being awarded by the Environmental Protection Agency, which unveiled the 60 recipients on Monday. Forty-nine of the new grants are state-level awards, six serve Native American tribes and five are multi-state awards. They can be used for investments such as rooftop solar and community solar gardens.
Biden’s latest environmental announcements come as he is working to energize young voters for his reelection campaign. Young people were a key part of a broad but potentially fragile coalition that helped him defeat then-President Donald Trump in 2020. Some have joined protests around the country of the administration’s handling of Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
FTC to Vote Today on Non-Compete Rule at Virtual Meeting Open to Public
Today, April 23, 2024, the Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”) will vote on whether to issue a final rule that will prohibit organizations from enforcing non-compete agreements with current and former workers. The vote will take place during a virtual Special Open Commission Meeting held open to the public. The FTC’s vote comes more than one year after issuing its notice of the proposed rule on January 5, 2023. As we previously noted, the FTC’s proposed rule argues that most non-compete agreements are an unfair method of competition under Section 5 of the FTC Act (15 U.S.C. § 45).
The Special Open Commission Meeting will begin with the FTC voting on whether to authorize public disclosure of the proposed final rule now being considered. This initial vote will be followed by brief remarks from the FTC’s Chair, Lina M. Khan. If the FTC votes to authorize public disclosure, the FTC’s Office of Policy Planning will furnish a staff presentation on the parameters of the final rule. Finally, the FTC will vote on the ultimate decision to issue the final rule. Even if the FTC votes in favor of issuing the final non-compete rule, it is likely the rule will face numerous and immediate legal challenges. Although such challenges could enjoin the FTC from enforcing the rule pending the resolution of litigation, numerous states, including New York, are still actively considering their own prohibitions on non-compete agreements.
U.S.-China Internet War Intensifies as House Passes TikTok Ban
In the yearslong technology fight between the U.S. and China, the Americans are poised to land a major punch. The House on Saturday easily passed a bill that would force a sale or ban of TikTok, which is owned by China–based ByteDance, bringing closer to reality a law that could remove the popular app and deepen the internet divide between the two countries. The measure, which passed 360-58 and was tied to a sweeping aid package for Israel and Ukraine, would give ByteDance up to a year to sell the app—compared with the six-month period proposed in a prior bill.
If ByteDance can’t find a buyer within that time, TikTok—which has 170 million users in the U.S.—would be banned. The Senate could vote on the bill in coming days. President Biden has previously said that he would sign such a bill into law. The Chinese government has signaled it wouldn’t allow a forced sale of the company. TikTok says it has never been asked to provide U.S. user data to the Chinese government and wouldn’t do so if asked to. Passage of the legislation, which targets China’s most internationally successful app, comes as China steps up its longstanding campaign against U.S. and other foreign messaging and social-media services.
Health and Wellness
Popular Weight Loss Drugs in Tight Supply. Shortage Could Last Through June
Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk, and Zepbound, made by Eli Lilly & Co., are in tight supply and may be hard to obtain for the next several months, according to the pharmaceutical companies. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) updated its drug shortage database on Wednesday to reflect that most doses of Zepbound have limited availability due to "demand increase for the drug." Currently, just the lowest dose of Zepbound is readily available. Patients typically start at the lowest dose and work their way up to higher doses.
Zepbound, has the same active ingredient -- tirzepatide -- as the drug Mounjaro, which is also manufactured by Eli Lilly and also in shortage for nearly all doses. Zepbound is specifically approved for weight loss for people with obesity, while Mounjaro is approved to manage blood sugar levels in those with type 2 diabetes, along with diet and exercise. Eli Lilly told ABC News it had experienced "unparalleled surge in demand" for these drugs and the company is "working with purpose and urgency to help meet the surge in demand." Meanwhile, only the highest dose of Wegovy is available with the remaining doses in short supply and the shortage duration "to be determined," according to the FDA website.
Election 2024
- The Wealth Effect Can Prop Up the Economy — and Maybe Swing Elections - Marketplace
- RFK Jr. Candidacy Hurts Trump More Than Biden, Poll Reports -Forbes
- Joe Biden Has 9-Point Lead Over Donald Trump Among Actual Voters - Newsweek
- Real Clear Politics Latest GOP Primary Polls – Real Clear Politics
- Real Clear Politics Latest General Election Polls – Real Clear Politics
- Latest Polls - FiveThirtyEight
Industry News
Commerce Secretary Raimondo Downplays Huawei's Latest Phone Chip
When Huawei debuted its Mate 60 smartphone in mid-2023, it turned heads around the world after teardown artists found it contained a system-on-chip manufactured by Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) using a 7nm process. SMIC was thought not to be able to build that sort of thing. So while the Mate 60 didn't differ markedly from every other modern smartphone, its very existence called into question the effectiveness of US-led efforts to prevent advanced chipmaking tech reach the Middle Kingdom.
Much speculation has therefore concerned what Huawei would deliver next, and this week the world got its answer – in the form of the Pura 70. Early tests suggest it outperforms the Kirin 9000 found in the Mate 60, but independent assessments are yet to emerge. The crowdsourced evaluations currently available are sometimes dubious. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on Sunday the chip powering the Mate 60 Pro phone is not as advanced as American chips arguing that it shows U.S. curbs on shipments to the telecoms equipment giant are working.
Transportation Modes Absorb Pressures After Baltimore Bridge Collapse
In the aftermath of the Baltimore bridge collapse, supply chains are showing their resiliency amid pain points and logistical challenges like traffic congestion and volume diversion. Stakeholders have adapted to keep cargo flowing, even amid longer permitted hours for truckers, a rapid response to fully restore the channel, and nearby ports noting their ability to help handle diverted cargo.
The Port of Virginia, for example, handled 291,700 TEUs in March, and the port expects to handle an additional 18,000 to 20,000 containers through April. Additionally, railroads responded with more trains between Baltimore and New York, forwarders are navigating challenges and truck lane pressures have been met with ample capacity. At the same time, a spike in congestion following the tragedy has meant some trucks have had certain trip times double or triple, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration said in a public meeting on April 10.
Read more at Supply Chain Dive
VW Works Closely With Unions in Germany, but UAW May Be Less Cuddly
Volkswagen knows all about running a business with union representatives at the table. But that experience may not be a perfect guide for how to work with the United Auto Workers at its Chattanooga plant. After workers at the plant last week voted in favor of being represented by the UAW, VW thanked employees for participating in the ballot. Now, under federal labor law, the company must enter negotiations with the UAW on an agreement covering pay, work hours, safety protocols and other items.
VW may not have much choice but to make the best of it, analysts say, given the economic benefits of making cars near customers, especially because of tariffs and the possibility of more of them. VW’s American management could face challenges replicating in the U.S. the generally placid relationship it has developed with unions in Europe, given the adversarial posture the UAW has lately held toward U.S. manufacturers.
Court Orders Johnson & Johnson And Kenvue To Pay $45 Million In Talcum Baby Powder Lawsuit
An Illinois court late Friday ordered pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson and Kenvue to pay $45 million to a family that alleged the companies’ talcum-based baby powder led to the death of a relative diagnosed with a fatal cancer linked to asbestos exposure, the company’s latest legal issue involving talc products. Theresa Garcia died in July 2020 after being diagnosed with mesothelioma, a cancer frequently connected to asbestos exposure, and her family filed a lawsuit alleging that Garcia’s frequent use of the companies’ talcum-based baby powder led to her diagnosis, according to a news release from legal firm Dean Omar Branham Shirley, which represented the family.
The jury found that Kenvue, the former consumer healthcare division of the pharmaceutical giant that became an independent company in August 2023, was responsible for 70% of the issues that led to Garcia's death while Johnson & Johnson and another unit were responsible for the remaining 30%, according to the release. J&J’s Worldwide Vice President of Litigation Erik Haas said in a statement the company plans to appeal Friday’s ruling immediately and expects to be successful, going on to say: “The verdict in this trial is irreconcilable with the decades of independent scientific evaluations confirming talc is safe, does not contain asbestos, and does not cause cancer.”
Nike Reverses Course as Innovation Stalls and Rivals Gain Ground
In late February, boss John Donahoe led a virtual all-hands meeting where he delivered a message to his staff: The company wasn’t performing at its best and he held himself accountable. Since the pandemic, Nike has lost ground in its critical running category while it focused on pumping out old hits and preparing for an e-commerce revolution that never came. The moves, current and former employees say, have eroded a culture of innovation and edginess that made Nike one of the world’s best-known brands.
Donahoe had told The Wall Street Journal in 2020 that his No. 1 priority when taking over the company was “don’t screw it up.” Four years later, the company is unwinding key elements of the CEO’s strategy that have backfired as a growing number of upstarts nip at its heels. The strategic missteps have animated a debate inside the company about its identity. In its zeal to boost digital sales, some current and former employees say, Nike veered from its roots as a maker of cutting-edge footwear for serious athletes. It has opened itself to competition from newcomers such as On and Hoka, which have borrowed from the playbook that fueled Nike’s rise—including focusing on sport over lifestyle, and taking risks on innovation.
Aviation Companies Vie to Build Electric Aircraft
While automakers — led by Tesla — have turned out entire fleets of EVs in recent years, aircraft manufacturers are further away from electrifying the industry in the US. That makes an industry goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050 all the more elusive, energy experts say. "Aviation is really hard to decarbonize," Samantha Gross, director of energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution, told Yahoo Finance. "You're never going to see a battery-powered 737 [plane] because batteries are heavy."
That’s why the industry is working on a number of green energy solutions like sustainable fuels for larger, long-distance aircraft. Meanwhile, electrifying small planes and helicopters is also on the horizon. To date, a handful of North American startups have made strides toward the electrification of air travel. And their initiatives are attracting investments from manufacturing, airlines, and auto giants.
GM and Ford Count on Gas-Powered Trucks as EV Growth Slows
U.S. automakers General Motors and Ford face a challenge in common when they report first-quarter results next week: Explaining to investors where profit growth will come from in the months ahead as EV growth slows. The slowdown in global electric-vehicle demand, intensifying competition from Chinese automakers and high U.S. borrowing costs have forced the U.S. automakers to delay investments and ratchet down costs over the past 12 months. Legacy U.S. automakers, which rely heavily on sales of large trucks and SUVs, have been bogged down by higher expenses related to electrifying their vehicle lineups and bumpy demand for battery-electric vehicles.
That has companies like GM and Ford focusing on sales of their core gasoline-powered vehicles, from which they derive most of their profit. GM and Ford are scheduled to report results on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said the year was off to a good start and the company felt positive about where demand was trending, while Ford CFO John Lawler, in reaffirming the company's full-year profit outlook, said vehicle prices were holding up better than expected.
Next-Gen Humanoid Robots on the Horizon
While supply chain demand for robots remains very high, in particular, Gartner predicts that by 2027, 10% of new intralogistics smart robots sold will be next-generation humanoid working robots. These AI-enabled robots—which resemble a human in shape and can interact in a natural human way—have the potential to be the missing link in fully automated warehouse processes.
Moving around and picking up individual items of varying sizes, shapes and orientations is difficult for robots, but easy for humans. As a result, we project humanoid robots will evolve during the next several years to address the limitations of previous generations of automation, and will provide the necessary cost savings, flexibility, adaptability and scalability that will generate large-scale investments from a range of different organizations. Additionally, according to the same survey discussed earlier, around half of respondents cited rising labor costs and a similar number raised concerns about labor availability as notable reasons for investing in robotics.
Read more at Supply Chain Management Review
China's Flying Cars Ready for Liftoff with EV Technology
XPeng, EHang and other Chinese companies are commercializing flying cars this year, tapping the country's advantages in electric car technologies to claim a large share of the emerging global market.
China accounts for 50% of the world's total electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle models, according to a China Merchants Securities report, far above the U.S.'s 18% and Germany's 8%.