Member Briefing December 22, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

CPI = 2.7%: November Consumer Prices Rose Less Than Expected. Economists Caution On Wrinkles In The Delayed Data

Consumer prices rose less than expected in November. The consumer price index rose at a 2.7% annualized rate last month, a delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the CPI to have risen 3.1%. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also cooler than anticipated, increasing 2.6% over 12 months. It was expected to have risen by 3%.

Economists treaded lightly following the report. Sam Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointed out that: “A higher proportion of price quotes than usual for November likely were sourced during the Black Friday discount period,” he said in a note to clients. “November’s CPI data have to be treated cautiously, given that CPI data collection resumed only on the 14th after the end of the shutdown,” Tombs said. “The key takeaway is we need to wait and see what December and January data show,” Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union said. “Inflation probably didn’t ease in November, but it seems likely it isn’t getting worse. That gives the Fed time to pause and assess.”

Read more at Yahoo Finance

House Passes Plan to Fast-Track Energy Projects, Sends to Senate

The House on Thursday passed a bill that aims to speed up infrastructure and energy projects The SPEED Act aims to bolster infrastructure projects by decreasing the amount of scrutiny their environmental impacts face. This NAM-backed legislation tackles America’s broken permitting system by cutting delays and restoring certainty. It shortens environmental review timelines, limits regulatory and legal uncertainty, expands categorial exclusions and prevents duplicative reviews. It also reinforces recent Supreme Court precedent on the scope of the National Environmental Policy Act.

While bipartisan lawmakers have for years sought a deal to speed up energy and infrastructure projects — and the bill that passed the House on Wednesday represents a milestone in that effort — it could face setbacks in the Senate where at least seven Democratic votes are needed to pass the legislation. While senators negotiate out their own agreement, this week’s push by wind opponents casts some doubt on whether a deal is possible that will appease both them and enough Senate Democrats.

Read more at The Hill

Existing Home Sales Rose Modestly in November as Mortgage Rates Ease

A drop in mortgage rates delivered another boost to existing home sales. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.50% in early September to just 6.17% by the end of October, and it has essentially moved sideways since. As a result, resales improved 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million-unit pace. Although slightly below consensus expectations, this marked the third consecutive improvement and the highest pace since February.

Single-family resales increased 0.8% in November, driving the overall improvement in existing home sales. Single-family transactions are still running roughly 20% below pre-pandemic levels but are on clear uptrend since June. In contrast, condo and co-op sales receded 2.6% in November,following a robust 5.4% uptick in October. Price growth moderated in November, falling back in line with the softer pace of price appreciation we have seen for much of this year. The median single-family home sold for $414.3K, 1.2% higher than one year ago. For context, annual price growth averaged 5.6% from 2015 to 2019. Although single-family supply has grown 7.8% over the past year, it still remains low compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Read more at Wells Fargo

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Elise Stefanik Ends Bid For New York Governor And Plans To Leave Congress

Republican US representative Elise Stefanik – a staunch ally of Donald Trump – is ending her campaign for New York governor and will not seek re-election to Congress. Stefanik wrote on X: “It is not an effective use of our time or your generous resources to spend the first half of next year in an unnecessary and protracted Republican primary, especially in a challenging state like New York”.

Once considered the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for governor, Stefanik’s race became more complicated after Bruce Blakeman, the executive of Nassau county, entered the race. If she did manage to win the primary, she would have faced a tough battle to unseat New York’s Democratic governor Kathy Hochul, who has been polling far ahead in a state where Democrats far outnumber Republicans. Stefanik, who represents New York’s North Country region, will also be joining a number of Republican lawmakers leaving the House.

Read more at The Guardian

New York State Energy Board Approves 15-Year Plan Which Acknowledges Continued Need For Fossil Fuels Through At Least 2040

The State Energy Planning Board unanimously approved New York’s 15-year energy plan Tuesday, laying out a set of recommendations which seek to set the stage for the state’s energy-related planning through 2040. The plan acknowledges the significant shifts in circumstances, politics, and fiscal reality which have shaped the conversation around energy since New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act was passed back in 2019, and works to put a face on Gov. Kathy Hochul’s recent embrace of an all of the above approach to energy.

The plan’s recommendations are based on an assessment which took more than a year to complete, evaluating current systems and working to determine future energy needs over the next decade and a half. The outcome, the board said, is a plan which seeks to achieve “affordable, abundant, reliable, and clean energy while supporting economic development, equity, and a healthy environment.” Doreen Harris, president of the New York State Energy Research and Development Agency and chair of the State Energy Planning Board said the plan acknowledges that while the state’s objective of reducing emissions and moving toward renewable energy remains alive, it is clear it will require a diverse portfolio of resources to support that shift without compromising reliability.

Read more at NY State of Politics

House Republicans Pass Health Care Plan Without Re-upping Insurance Subsidies

The House passed a health care bill Wednesday evening that would not address expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits, all but guaranteeing the enhanced subsidies will lapse at the end of the year. The 216-211 vote on the legislation also capped a dramatic day for Speaker Mike Johnson, who can hardly call the measure’s passage a victory after spending the balance of the day managing an open revolt by his moderate flank. The House Republican health care bill would allow small businesses to offer their own health plans, crack down on drug intermediaries known as pharmacy benefit managers and fund another kind of subsidy designed to reduce out-of-pocket expenses for Obamacare enrollees.

Ultimately, the bill is dead on arrival in the Senate and will do little to quell a major intraparty split over the future of the subsidies, with many House Republicans vowing to continue to negotiate a compromise in 2026. House GOP moderates are now discussing options with their Senate counterparts about a bipartisan compromise bill that could pass both chambers. The lawmakers involved in these talks hope to be able to produce a proposal before the next government funding deadline Jan. 30.

Read more at Politico

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Research Finds Benefits From Cutting Saturated Fats, as RFK Jr. Promotes Them

A paper published Monday in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that people at high risk of developing cardiovascular problems saw a reduction in major health issues including heart attack and stroke when they cut back on saturated fats. The picture was different for people without those same cardiovascular risks. Within five years, cutting saturated fats didn’t yield the same benefits for that group, the review said. The significance of limiting these fats in a person’s diet is greater when a person replaces those foods with polyunsaturated fats, or healthy fats, the review said. Studies have found replacing saturated fats in a person’s diet with polyunsaturated fat, like fatty fish or canola oil, has lowered a person’s level of low-density lipoprotein, or bad cholesterol. It has also reduced their risk of cardiovascular disease.

The report comes ahead of an anticipated change to federal dietary guidelines that are likely to embrace the consumption of saturated fats. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said the government’s new guidelines would “stress the need to eat saturated fats, dairy, good meat, fresh meat and vegetables.” The secretary, who has said he follows a carnivore diet, has lauded food companies that use beef tallow, the melted-down fatty tissue of cattle carcasses, instead of seed oils.

Read more at The WSJ

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Friday May 8, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

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Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Winter Session, Virtual. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (15 half day sessions) January 6 - March 11 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Maritime Industrial Base (MIB) Announces Supplier Development Funding

The new and updated Fiscal Year 2027 (FY27) Supplier Development Funding (SDF) Proposal Portal is open as of November 21st. Supplier Development Funding is for projects or efforts at a supplier which will increase capacity/capability of the supply chain to support the goal of 1+2 for submarine production, increased surface ship production and sustainment. SDF is typically used for CAPEX but the MIB would evaluate the proposal in light of how it helps the Navy achieve its production and sustainment goals. 

Suppliers don’t need to have a Navy contract already but they will need to become a Navy supplier i.e. have a CAGE code in order to be considered for and receive funding. This year the Supply Chain team will be reviewing proposals on a rolling basis with all stakeholders via a working group process which we will initiate in January. The Maritime Industrial Base (MIB) Program leads the U.S. Navy's effort to revitalize America's shipbuilding and repair capabilities. Established in September 2024, the program strengthens and expands the industrial base that builds and maintains surface ships, aircraft carriers, and submarines vital to national defense.

Learn more about MIB

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Community Colleges Are Training The Next Generation Of Manufacturing Workers

The manufacturing industry has long bemoaned the decline of its workforce. Yet today’s manufacturing educational pathways look much like they did in the ’80s, when hiring numbers began declining. Apprenticeship programs remain scarce, with just 678,000 apprentices registered nationwide (in comparison, Germany’s labor force is less than a third of the U.S.’ yet maintains 1.22 million apprentices). And according to one Dewalt survey, students believe that trade schools are costly and offer limited networking opportunities.

One underrated option may hold the most promise for workforce growth: the local community college. That’s according to a series of reports by The Rutgers Education and Employment Research Center released in October, which examines the “hidden innovative structure” of America’s community colleges. Community colleges excel in ways conducive to a successful manufacturing career, said Shalin Jyotishi, founder of the Future of Work & Innovation Economy Initiative at think tank New America. The schools are accessible, closely plugged into the local manufacturing industry and usually more affordable. For many people, Jyotishi said, a community college is the best way to enroll in a program that offers all the benefits of an apprenticeship.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

FedEx Expects $175M Impact From MD-11 Fleet Grounding

FedEx is expecting a $175 million headwind to its adjusted operating income this fiscal year due to the grounding of its MD-11 fleet, EVP and CFO John Dietrich said on a Q2 earnings call Thursday. The carrier already incurred $25 million of that amount in November, with the remainder projected to take place in the third quarter, Dietrich said. The CFO noted that FedEx will face “significantly higher costs” in December in particular due to expenses associated with securing third-party air cargo capacity.

“It’s an expensive time of year to be getting outsourced lift to begin with, let alone when you have fleet grounded,” Dietrich said. FedEx’s current financial outlook accounts for its MD-11 aircraft to return to service in Q4, which begins March 1, he added. FedEx and UPS paused operations of their MD-11 aircraft last month at manufacturer Boeing’s recommendation after the deadly crash of an aircraft of that type. The Federal Aviation Administration also issued an emergency directive prohibiting MD-11 flights until inspections and corrective actions take place, straining both carriers’ air cargo capacity during the busy holiday shipping season.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Ford Cancels $6.5B Battery Supply Contract With LG Energy Solution One Week After Cancelling SK Joint Venture

Ford Motor Co. has terminated its multi-billion dollar supply deal with South Korea-based LG Energy Solution for 75 gigawatt hours of battery cells for its electric vehicles, according to a Dec. 18 regulatory filing by the battery maker.  The value of the supply contract for the European market was worth 9.6 trillion won ($6.5 billion) according to the filing, which was based on the battery selling price when the deal with Ford was executed on Oct. 14, 2024. The contract’s termination was effective Dec. 17.

The cancellation of Ford’s supply contract follows a major strategic move announced by the company this week to revise its previous electrification goals and focus more launching more affordable hybrid vehicles and others with highly efficient, internal combustion engine powertrains. According to LG Energy Solution’s regulatory filing, Ford’s decision was based on its plans to cancel certain EVs models, changes in the policy environment and weakening EV demand. The automaker also announced this week that it was canceling the electric F-150 Lightning due to sluggish sales.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Unions Come Out Against Rail Giants' $85B Merger

The proposed $85 billion merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads has lost the support of two unions that represent more than half their workers over concerns it will jeopardize safety and jobs, raise shipping rates and consumer prices, and cause significant disruptions. The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division are among the most prominent critics of the deal to create the nation’s first transcontinental railroad. When they officially announce their decision Wednesday, they will join the American Chemistry Council, an assortment of agricultural groups and competing railroad BNSF in raising concerns the merger would hurt competition.

After months of meetings with Vena and other executives, the presidents of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division unions — both affiliated with the Teamsters — said they have serious doubts about the potential benefits, and warned the promises Vena made to preserve jobs aren’t detailed enough to be reliable.

Read more at The AP

Sikorsky Reupped for More Black Hawks

Sikorsky Aircraft has drawn a $433.2-million adjustment to an existing U.S. Army contract that will cover the delivery costs for a total of 15 new Black Hawk helicopters, nine UH-60M and 15 HH-60M aircraft. The Pentagon’s announcement of the award notes it also will fund 18 months of Black Hawk program management, from July 2026 through December 2027. In addition to Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin holding, the UH-60 Black Hawk program’s major suppliers include GE Aerospace (turboprop engines), Honeywell Aerospace (avionics and electronics), Curtiss-Wright, Goodrich, and Hamilton Sundstrand.

The UH-60M is the current version of Sikorsky’s long-established Black Hawk multi-purpose utility helicopter, incorporating digital avionics, powerful engines, and enhanced lift/range for troop transport, medical evacuation, command-and-control, and search-and-rescue missions. According to Lockheed it is “the world’s most versatile helicopter.” The HH-60M is the U.S. Army's dedicated medevac version of the UH-60M that incorporates onboard oxygen, litter lifts, and an infrared camera for day or night, all-weather casualty transport from battlefields and disaster zones. It’s also serviceable as a search-and-rescue helicopter.

Read more at American Machinist

TSMC To Install Cutting-Edge 3-Nm Chip Tools In Arizona Next Summer

TSMC is reportedly moving to accelerate advanced U.S. chip production. According to Nikkei, sources say the company plans to begin moving chipmaking equipment into its second Arizona plant around the summer of 2026, setting the stage for 3nm manufacturing in 2027. Sources say equipment installation is expected in the July–September quarter of 2026. The report notes that once tools are installed at a chip plant, it can take up to a year to qualify production lines and ramp up output. However, it adds that more advanced chips may require additional time, as manufacturing now involves more than 1,000 steps and requires extensive work to transfer and validate processes at a new facility.

TSMC’s first overseas advanced chip plant, located in Arizona, has already begun producing some chips for Apple as well as NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell AI processors. The report highlights that once the $165 billion project is completed—including five chipmaking plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and an R&D center—TSMC expects around 30% of its most advanced chips to be manufactured in the U.S.

Read more at Trendforce

Micron Says Memory Shortage Will ‘Persist’ Beyond 2026

Micron, the maker of memory chips posted record revenue and operating income for its fiscal first quarter late last week; revenue jumped 57% year over year to $13.6 billion. That follows several quarters of strong growth for both metrics. Fueling the growth: demand for artificial intelligence systems that is sharply boosting sales of the specialized type of memory those products need. And the party seems far from over. Micron projected that sales will more than double to a record of $18.7 billion in the current quarter ending in February, while adjusted operating income will surge more than fivefold to $11.3 billion.

The company’s report also portends challenges in the year ahead for everyone who needs memory chips—that is to say, everyone who uses a PC, smartphone, tablet, game console or other electronic device. The brains of those devices, generally called central processing chips or CPUs, all require memory to function. And there is only so much memory to go around. Soaring demand for AI systems is soaking up more of the available memory supply. That, in turn, is driving up prices across the board. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra noted that the company is planning to break ground on a new memory fab in upstate New York early next year. Supply from that fab isn’t expected until 2030, though. Micron has other efforts under way to increase production. And the company plans to spend a record $20 billion in the current fiscal year to further that effort.

Read more at The WSJ

Quote of the Day

“The tears of the world are a constant quantity. For each one who begins to weep somewhere else another stops. The same is true of the laugh. Let us not then speak ill of our generation, it is not any unhappier than its predecessors.”

Samuel Beckett - Irish Poet and Playwright from his play 'Waiting for Godot.' He died on this day in 1989.

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