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Tariff and Trade War Headlines
China's Ascension to Top Economy Delayed... Again
China's rise to the world's largest economy is again delayed. Wells Fargo now estimates China overtakes the U.S. to become the largest economy in the world in 2049, pushed out from a prior estimate of early 2040s. Despite last year's resilience, the delay is a product of deteriorating underlying fundamentals that determine potential growth. China's population is smaller and older, deflation pressures are persistent and rising private and public sector leverage re-introduces "hard landing" risks in China.
At the same time, fundamentals in the U.S. are on an improving trajectory and diverging from underlying trends in China. Just as worsening fundamentals will keep China stuck in second place for a longer period of time, improvements across potential growth indicators should set a solid foundation for long-term U.S. economic growth. "Hard landing" risks in China are not as apparent in the U.S., which also keeps downside risks squarely centered in China and not so much in the U.S.
Read more at Wells Fargo
China Aims For 5-Fold Increase In Advanced Chip Output To Meet AI Demand
China's top chipmakers, including SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, are aiming to boost their output of advanced semiconductors to meet burgeoning artificial intelligence demand, Nikkei said on Wednesday citing sources. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co (SMIC), Hua Hong and several Huawei-linked chipmakers are expanding or aiming to start production of chips with the most advanced technology available, including on the 7-nanometer (nm) or even 5-nm performance level, Nikkei said.
China is aiming to boost its output of relatively advanced chips to 100,000 wafers in one to two years, from less than 20,000 currently, while also setting a more aggressive target of adding an additional 500,000 wafers of capacity by 2030, the Japanese newspaper said citing sources.
Read more at Yahoo Finance
Deere, CNH And Agco Brace For Low North American Sales In 2026 Outlooks
Tractor giants are continuing to ride out the slow demand cycle as farmers face high costs and low commodity prices. Companies with strong U.S. customer bases, such as Deere, CNH and Agco, have been deliberately underproducing, destocking inventories and navigating dynamic trade fluctuations. Conditions may be changing, however, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday to nullify a significant portion of the president’s tariffs. Here are some of the highlights from the companies’ latest earnings reports.
- Tariff pivots following Supreme Court decision - Deere & Co. and other manufacturers could seek hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff relief following the Supreme Court’s ruling.
- Destocking efforts slow as underproduction continues - To better align with customer demand, tractor makers are continuing to adjust production and destock inventory. CNH, a U.K.-based maker of Case and New Holland brands, will continue to produce at low levels in the current quarter, CFO James Nickolas said in an earnings call Feb. 17. Approximately 40% of the company’s 2024 net sales came from North America.
- Mixed 2026 outlooks as pressures continue - As farmers continue to face challenging market conditions, including high input costs and low commodity prices, tractor makers are revising their outlooks accordingly. Commodity prices remain low, below farmers’ breakeven point, and they want more confidence in their end markets before making equipment purchases.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Company Earnings of Note
Nvidia reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, driven by 75% revenue growth in its core data center business. Nvidia’s total revenue for the quarter climbed 73% from $39.3 billion a year earlier. The company now gets over 91% of sales from its data center unit, which houses its market leading artificial intelligence chips. Net income almost doubled to $43 billion, or $1.76 a share, from $22.1 billion, or 89 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago, the company said in a press release. Nvidia’s stock is outperforming all of its megacap peers so far this year, as the company continues to be the leading beneficiary of the AI boom. Guidance was also better than expected. Nvidia said revenue for the fiscal first quarter will be $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. Analysts were expecting $72.6 billion. Nvidia said it’s not assuming data center revenue from China in its forecast. - CNBC
Auto giant Stellantis on Thursday reported its first-ever annual loss after booking substantial write-downs amid a major strategic shift. The multinational conglomerate, which owns household names including Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, Chrysler and Peugeot, posted a full-year 2025 net loss of 22.3 billion euros ($26.3 billion), compared to full-year profit of 5.5 billion euros a year ago. The net loss was impacted by 25.4 billion euros in write-downs, Stellantis said, as the firm sharply scales back its electric vehicle strategy. The firm had an adjusted operating loss of 842 million euros in 2025, compared to an adjusted operating income of 8.65 billion euros in 2024 and it estimates net tariff expenses of 1.6 billion euros in 2026. Stellantis said it expects positive industrial free cash flow in 2027. - CNBC
Lowe’s is expecting a flat home-improvement market in 2026 as stalled housing sales, high interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to lead homeowners to delay remodeling and repair projects. For the fourth quarter, Lowe’s reported sales of $20.58 billion, up from $18.55 billion the year prior. Wall Street had expected $20.34 billion, according to FactSet. Comparable sales rose 1.3%, which the company said was “driven by continued growth in Pro, online, and home-services sales, as well as strong holiday performance.” Analysts had expected comparable sales growth of 0.2%. The company reported net income of $999 million, or $1.78 a share, down from $1.13 billion, or $1.99 a share, the year prior. The company guided for fiscal 2026 sales of $92 billion to $94 billion, comparable sales growth of flat to 2% and adjusted earnings of $12.25 to $12.75 a share. Analysts see 2026 sales of $93.26 billion, comparable sales growth of 1.8% and adjusted earnings of $12.90 a share. - WSJ
TJX Cos forecast annual sales and profit below Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, signaling strained discretionary spending among budget-conscious consumers hit by economic uncertainty. The off-price retailer reported a quarterly comparable sales rise of 5%, above an estimate of 3.6% growth, boosted by the holiday season. Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter came in at $1.43, surpassing an expectation of $1.39 per share.TJX forecast a rise in annual comparable sales between 2% and 3%, compared to analysts' average estimate of 3.5% growth. Earnings per share are expected to be between $4.93 and $5.02, compared to an estimate of $5.18 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. – US News
Salesforce’s revenue grew 12% year over year in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on Jan. 31, according to a statement. It’s the company’s fastest growth rate in two years. Net income of $1.94 billion, or $2.07 per share, increased from $1.71 billion, or $1.75 per share. Guidance for the fiscal first quarter included $3.11 to $3.13 in adjusted earnings per share on $11.03 billion to $11.08 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for $3.00 per share and $10.99 billion in revenue. For 2027 fiscal year, Salesforce called for $13.11 to $13.19 in adjusted earnings per share on $45.8 billion to $46.2 billion in revenue, which implies 10 to 11% growth. The LSEG consensus had $13.12 per share on $46.06 billion in revenue. - CNBC
Apple To Produce Mac Mini Computers In US For The First Time
Apple on Tuesday said it will bring Mac mini production to Houston later this year, expanding its compact desktop computer capacity to the United States for the first time. The Cupertino, California-based company also plans to expand production of its advanced artificial intelligence servers and provide hands-on worker training at its Advanced Manufacturing Center, which is currently under construction.Apple’s Houston expansion, altogether, is expected to create thousands of jobs, according to a news release.
The company began building a factory in the city last year for server production. The Mac mini expansion would double Apple’s manufacturing footprint in the area. The expansion is part of Apple’s $600 billion investment to boost domestic manufacturing and AI infrastructure over the next four years. Since August, the company said it has sourced more than 20 billion U.S.-made chips from suppliers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Broadcom and Texas Instruments. It has also invested in partner facilities in Sherman, Texas; Peoria, Arizona; and Harrodsburg, Kentucky, that produce wafers, packaging and cover glass for iPhone and Apple Watch.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Samsung Launches S26 Smartphone As Sector Braces For Memory Chip Crunch
Samsung Electronics unveiled its latest series of flagship smartphones on Wednesday, with two of the models costing $100 more than their predecessors as the industry tries to recover from a global shortage of memory chips. Samsung is touting improved AI and a privacy display in its new models against a backdrop of industry-wide memory chip shortages brought about by the rapid scaling of AI infrastructure. Memory prices in segments such as smartphones have doubled over the past two quarters, according to CSS Insight research, said Ben Wood, chief analyst at CSS Insight. While memory manufacturers are investing in new capacity, the chip shortage is expected to last until 2027 or early 2028, he added.
The average selling price of smartphones in 2026 was expected to rise 6.9% as a result of the memory crunch, Counterpoint Research said in a note in December. The S26 series is the third of “AI phones” by Samsung, following the S24 release two years ago. The company says the new models’ processing chips are faster than those of previous generations. It added they use AI tools to help with things like photo editing and document scanning. Samsung’s S26 series does take some “positive steps forward” in making AI features easier to use for consumers.
Read more at CNBC
Northrop, US Air Force Accelerate B‑21 Raider Production
Northrop Grumman and the US Air Force are accelerating production of the B-21 Raider, signaling a push to move the next-generation stealth bomber from testing into operational service sooner than planned. The company announced that it is expanding production capacity for the B-21 Raider, with final assembly continuing at its Palmdale, California, facility and manufacturing work spread across multiple US sites. The first operational aircraft remains scheduled to arrive at Ellsworth Air Force Base in 2027, the service’s initial main operating base for the bomber.
Northrop Grumman said its heavy use of digital engineering has shortened certification timelines and enabled faster validation of aircraft performance during tests. The bomber is designed to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons and to penetrate advanced air defense systems using sixth-generation stealth technologies. Its open architecture design is intended to allow upgrades over time, reducing long-term sustainment costs compared with earlier bombers. Northrop Grumman said it has invested more than $5 billion in digital engineering tools and manufacturing infrastructure to support higher production rates as the program matures.
Read more at Defense Post
Some Roundup Plaintiffs Seek To Delay Preliminary Approval Of Proposed $7.25 Billion Bayer Settlement, Court Filing Shows
Law firms representing nearly 20,000 people who sued Bayer over alleged injuries from its Roundup weedkiller urged a Missouri judge on Wednesday to delay reviewing the German company’s proposed $7.25 billion nationwide settlement, arguing that rushing would violate the rights of tens of thousands of cancer patients and their families. In a filing in a state court in St Louis, the firms said the accord should not be fast-tracked for possible preliminary approval on March 4, fifteen days after the proposed settlement was announced.
The request is the first major organized pushback against Bayer’s attempt to resolve most of the 65,000 remaining Roundup claims in state and federal courts.
Read more Yahoo Finance
Big Tech Companies To Meet Trump At White House To Sign Pledge On Data Center Power Costs
The major technology companies will meet President Donald Trump at the White House next week to sign a pledge that they will supply their own power for artificial intelligence data centers. Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, xAI, Oracle and OpenAI will sign the agreement at the March 4 meeting, a White House official confirmed to CNBC Wednesday. “Under this bold initiative, these massive companies will build, bring, or buy their own power supply for new AI data centers, ensuring that Americans’ electricity bills will not increase as demand grows,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told CNBC.
Trump said during his State of the Union address Tuesday that he had secured such a pledge from the tech sector, but did not provide detail on what the agreement entails. The Trump administration has warned the tech companies that they risk a backlash if the public believes their data centers are driving up energy costs, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday.
Read more at CNBC
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