Member Briefing May 13, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

CPI = 3.8% - Hormuz Closer Drives Consumer Prices Up By Highest Rate in 3 Years

The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8% respectively, keeping inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Fed officials consider core as a better indicator of longer-term inflation trends. The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since May 2023 and was up half a percentage point from March. Core inflation rose 0.2 percentage point annually.

  • Energy prices, which jumped 3.8%, again was a major contributor to the inflation surge and put the 12-month gain at 17.9%.
  • Food prices climbed 0.5%.
  • Shelter costs rose 0.6% after easing in prior months, indicating that inflation is a problem beyond the Iran war impacts.
  • The tariff-sensitive apparel category increased 0.6%. Tariffs also seemed to hit other areas, with household furnishings and operations up 0.7%.
  • Airline fares accelerated 2.8%, putting the 12-month gain at 20.7%.
  • Real average hourly wages slipped 0.5% for the month and fell 0.3% annually.

Read more at CNBC

Google Says It Likely Thwarted Effort By Hacker Group To Use AI For ‘Mass Exploitation Event’

Google’s Threat Intelligence Group said in a report on Monday that it thwarted an effort by hackers to use artificial intelligence models to “plan a mass vulnerability exploitation operation.” GTIG said it has “high confidence” that it recorded hackers using an AI model to find and exploit a zero-day vulnerability, or a software flaw unknown to developers, creating a way to bypass two-factor authentication.

The findings underscore how hackers are using available AI tools like OpenClaw to exploit software flaws in ways that can be particularly damaging to companies, government agencies and other organizations even as cybersecurity firms pump billions of dollars into bolstering their defenses. In Monday’s report, Google highlighted several examples of how hackers are already using tools such as OpenClaw to find vulnerabilities, launch cyberattacks and develop malware. Groups linked to China and North Korea “demonstrated significant interest in capitalizing on AI for vulnerability discovery,” the report said.

Read more at CNBC

Capex Activity Driving Machine Tool Demand Higher

U.S. machine shops’ and other manufacturers’ orders for new metalworking machinery increased 40.3% from February to March, up to $681.3 million for the month. The total represented a 31.5% rise in order values from March 2025, and the January-March order total of $1.61 billion is a 27.8% increase in order values versus Q1 2025. AMT reported the purchasing activity in its latest U.S. Manufacturing Technology Order report, a monthly summary of demand for metal-cutting and metal-forming machinery based on new-order value and machine units, nationwide and in six regions. The USMTO report serves as an index to future manufacturing activity, as machining operations invest in capacity to support their anticipated production activity.

Aerospace manufacturers orders decreased by roughly -12% from February, and still remain strong as commercial aerospace demand builds and military contracting activity increases. AMT noted that manufacturers of “engines, turbines, and other power transmission systems more than doubled” their manufacturing technology orders from the February period. “Increased demand for electrical power needed for data centers will likely spur additional investment from this sector in the coming months,” it observed. Regional USMTO results for March were strongest for the West, with a total of $195.6 million new orders recorded, up 41.5% from February and up 92.9% from March 2025. Each of the six regions tracked showed positive activity during March, with notable demand in the Northeast ($120.5 million, +89.4% from February).

Read more at American Machinist

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Trump/Xi Summit Headlines

Hochul Defends State Budget Process, 11th Extender, As Finalization Efforts Continue

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday defended the state budget process after brief conflicting messages from her and state Assembly Majority Leader Carl Heastie on where budget negotiations stood late last week, though a final deal remains unfinished. Hochul has long defended her use of the budget in pursuit of policies she feels are important to New Yorkers that would be challenging to achieve through normal legislation given the complexities of the legislature, and she claimed Monday that New Yorkers would likely back her up in that.

Lawmakers on Monday passed an 11th budget extender to keep state operations funded through Thursday, including payroll, health programs and unemployment insurance. While Hochul claimed New Yorkers would side with her over the policy holdup, Republicans used the opportunity to blast the governor and the legislature for real-life impacts, such as uncertainty around school budgets.

Read More at City & State

Proposed State Law Would Put Corporate Executives On The Hook For 'Knowingly' Causing A Catastrophe

A proposal introduced Monday would hold corporate executives criminally liable when they knowingly cause harm to New Yorkers’ safety, health and environment. Newly introduced, the legislation if passed would change New York’s model penal code to adopt the crime of catastrophe which would hold corporate executives criminally accountable who knowingly or recklessly cause widespread injury or harm. Democratic state Assemblymember Emily Gallagher and Democratic state Sen. Michelle Hinchey are sponsoring this legislation in their chambers.

“We are living in a time where corporations increasingly operate with impunity,” said Gallagher. “New York penal law is mostly geared towards personal crimes rather than larger harms affecting many people.” The proposal specifically states incidents including widespread injury, fire, explosion, flood, the collapse of a building, and the release of poisonous gas as catastrophes. Lawmakers say if signed into law, local district attorneys would enforce the act with backing from the state’s attorney general.

Read more at NY State of Politics

More Policy and Politics Headlines

What To Know About Hantavirus, The Illness Linked To A Cruise Ship Outbreak

An outbreak aboard a cruise ship of a rare rodent-borne illness called hantavirus has left three passengers dead and sickened others, but global health officials say the risk to the general public remains low because the germ does not easily spread between people. Hantaviruses have been around for centuries and are thought to exist around the world. The disease gained renewed attention last year after the late actor Gene Hackman 's wife, Betsy Arakawa, died from a hantavirus infection in New Mexico. Here are some things to know:

  • This outbreak may have come from Argentina - Investigators in Argentina suspect that the cases were initially contracted during a birdwatching trip in Ushuaia, at the country's southern tip, two officials told AP. But officials in Ushuaia note that the virus has not previously been detected in the province.
  • The virus is spread by rodents and, more rarely, people - Hantavirus is mainly spread by contact with rodents or their urine, saliva or droppings, particularly when the material is disturbed and becomes airborne, posing a risk of inhalation.
  • The illness starts with flu-like symptoms - An infection can rapidly progress and become life-threatening. Experts say it can start with symptoms including fever, chills, muscle aches and maybe a headache—much like the flu.
  • Infections have been relatively uncommon - Hantavirus infections are relatively uncommon globally. The WHO reported that in 2025, eight countries within the Americas had documented 229 cases and 59 deaths.
  • A lot of unknowns about the illness and treatment - There is no specific treatment or cure, but early medical attention can increase the chance of survival. Despite years of research, many questions have yet to be answered, including why it can be mild for some people and severe for others and how antibodies are developed.

Read more at Medical Xpress

Upcoming Council Programs

Events 

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Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

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Training

Introduction to Lean With Simulation, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  May 19. 8:30 - 4:30.

Trade Wars

Google Says It Likely Thwarted Effort By Hacker Group To Use AI For ‘Mass Exploitation Event’

Google’s Threat Intelligence Group said in a report on Monday that it thwarted an effort by hackers to use artificial intelligence models to “plan a mass vulnerability exploitation operation.” GTIG said it has “high confidence” that it recorded hackers using an AI model to find and exploit a zero-day vulnerability, or a software flaw unknown to developers, creating a way to bypass two-factor authentication.

The findings underscore how hackers are using available AI tools like OpenClaw to exploit software flaws in ways that can be particularly damaging to companies, government agencies and other organizations even as cybersecurity firms pump billions of dollars into bolstering their defenses. In Monday’s report, Google highlighted several examples of how hackers are already using tools such as OpenClaw to find vulnerabilities, launch cyberattacks and develop malware. Groups linked to China and North Korea “demonstrated significant interest in capitalizing on AI for vulnerability discovery,” the report said.

Read more at CNBC

GlobalFoundries Q1 Revenue Surpasses $1.6B, Beats Expectations

GlobalFoundries earned $1.6 billion in first-quarter 2026 revenue, down 11% from Q4 2025 and up 3.1% year over year. Results were driven by the manufacturing services sector as the company shipped about 579,000 300-millimeter-equivalent wafers in the quarter, up 7% from the prior-year period. The results “demonstrate a strong step forward in our multiyear journey to enhance the quality of our revenue composition, improve our structural cost position and achieve efficient scale acrossr world-class fabs,” CEO and Director Timothy Breen said on an the May 5th earnings call.

The company’s quarterly results also show further progress in implementing GlobalFoundries’ “three-pillar strategy”, which includes developing innovative technologies, deepening engagement throughout customers’ design cycles and scaling the company’s global footprint, Breen said. Among other innovations, he cited the company’s advances in optical networking, including its silicon photonics and silicon germanium capabilities. According to Breen, the market is moving to adopt these technologies for “pluggable, near and co-packaged optics.”

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

UPS and FedEx Up International Fuel Surcharge Rates, Add Surge Fees

FedEx and UPS have installed fuel surcharge rate increases and levied new shipping fees this month, adjustments that will impact a wide range of customers’ international shipments. The carriers are applying temporary fees for shipments between the U.S. and various countries until further notice. One from UPS is a 32 cent per-pound surcharge for volume to the U.S. from any origin country or territory, save for those in which a surge emergency fee already applies. “Our goal is to continue to meet our customers’ shipping needs without compromising on the quality or timeliness of service expected from us,” UPS said in a customer notice about the surcharge.

FedEx and UPS are upping their fuel fee calculations on import and export services as well. For example, if the price per gallon of jet fuel is $4 in a given week, FedEx will levy a 38.5% fuel surcharge for international exports. Previously, FedEx charged a 36.5% rate at that fuel price. Meanwhile, DHL eCommerce is increasing its fuel surcharge calculations for domestic products on May 30. The wave of surcharge hikes and adjustments adds to ongoing cost pressures for parcel shippers as logistics giants pass on increased expenses. Carrier surcharges tied to fuel prices have risen as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to squeeze the global oil supply.

Read more and see a chart of the fees at Supply Chain Dive

Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom? 

The Middle East conflict has caused the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH). While the closure has had major implications for global energy markets the effects on global supply chains are much broader. This is illustrated in the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). Over the two months since the conflict began, the index rose by 1.3 points, to 1.8 standard deviations above its average value.

The increase in the GSCPI has exceeded the level of the Fukushima nuclear crisis in 2011 but remains well below the peaks reached during the COVID-19 pandemic. High inventories in China and high-income Asian economies provide some runway before shortages reach the U.S.—but there is nonetheless risk that spillovers will materialize more quickly through the “weakest links” in ASEAN. Since the beginning of 2024, U.S. reported imports from ASEAN have increased by about 46 percent, including a nearly 30 percent growth rate last year. Imports from the high-income countries grew by a similar amount, while those from China have plunged. Total U.S. imports from these three groups of countries have grown strongly. ASEAN has become a key supplier of goods like networking equipment that are crucial inputs for the build-out of AI-related data centers in the U.S.

Read more at the NY Fed

Import Cargo Volume to Remain Below 2025 Levels

Despite a skewed year-over-year bump in May and June, import volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to remain below last year’s levels into early fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. “The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement.

Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said retailers have been cautious about building up inventories. “Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett said in a statement. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.” U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million TEUs in March, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.6% year over year and up 13.6% from February, when many Asian factories were closed for Lunar New Year celebrations and bad weather delayed the arrival of cargo at some U.S. ports.

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics

Space Force Weighs Vulcan Flights Without Solid Boosters

The U.S. Space Force is exploring whether it can resume flights of United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket without using the solid rocket boosters now under investigation, a workaround that could allow some missions to proceed even as the vehicle remains grounded for national security launches. “We think we can change the manifest slightly and eliminate the need for solids,” Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, head of Space Systems Command, said last week at the Space Symposium.

Vulcan has been sidelined since its Feb. 12 USSF-87 mission, when a performance anomaly appeared on one of its solid rocket boosters shortly after liftoff. The rocket still delivered its payload to geosynchronous orbit, but the Space Force halted further launches pending a joint investigation with ULA. Officials are reviewing flight data and imagery to determine the cause, with no timeline for a return to flight. In the interim, some missions have been reassigned to SpaceX, leaving the Space Force dependent on a single provider for critical national security launches.

Read more at Space News

Lufthansa Group Orders 20 New Airbus And Boeing Twin-Aisle Aircraft Worth $7.7 Billion

Germany’s Lufthansa Group has ordered 20 additional long-haul aircraft from Airbus and Boeing as it continues on the largest fleet modernisation program in its history. On 11 May, the carrier placed orders for 10 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners and 10 Airbus A350-900s in a deal said by the company to be worth $7.7 billion. The new aircraft are largely intended to replace the Group’s ageing and less efficient widebody aircraft currently in service, which includes Airbus A330s, A340s, plus Boeing 747-400s. Deliveries of the new aircraft are scheduled for between 2032 and 2034.

These latest orders mark the next step in the Lufthansa Group’s fleet modernisation programme, which kicked off when Lufthansa’s first Airbus A350-900 arrived in April 2022. Since then, the carrier has received an additional 30 of the type, with another two yet to be delivered from a previous order. Meanwhile, Lufthansa became a Boeing 787 Dreamliner operator in August 2022 and now has 16 aircraft in service, with a further 10 yet to be delivered from an outstanding order. The new order adds to an already large backlog of new aircraft across the Lufthansa Group. The group now has 232 aircraft on order in total, including both single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft types.

Read More at Aerospace Global News

FedEx Express Completes First McDonnell Douglas MD-11 Test Flight Following Six-Month Grounding

On 9 May, a FedEx Express McDonnell Douglas MD-11F (registration N621FE) conducted the first test flight for the type in roughly six months, after it was grounded following the crash of a UPS example in November 2025. The background to the recent test flight was the National Transport Safety Board inquiry into the UPS MD-11 accident, which found that an engine and pylon separated during take-off. Investigators linked the failure to structural fatigue issues in a bearing component, prompting regulators to ground the MD-11 fleet worldwide while Boeing developed a fix.

Built between 1990 and 2000, McDonnell Douglas (later taken over by Boeing) delivered 200 MD-11s in total. Although primarily designed as a widebody trijet to replace the DC-10, the aircraft later found its niche as a freighter, operating with several major cargo airlines worldwide during its career. However, the MD-11 became known as having something of a mixed safety record. Throughout the bulk of its operational life, there have been 10 hull loss incidents involving the type, with around 260 deaths as a result. Its hull-loss rate is noticeably worse than that of aircraft like the Boeing 777 or Airbus A330.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Coal-Based Steelmaking Outpaces The Industry’s Low-Emissions Transition

Growing investment in coal-based steelmaking capacity is outpacing the industry’s transition to low-emissions alternatives, such as electric arc furnaces, threatening global efforts to reach net zero goals, an energy watchdog group said. Steel producers plan to bring online 319 million tonnes per annum of new coal-based blast furnace capacity, a 5% increase from the previous year, according to the Global Energy Monitor’s sixth annual report, published Monday. They also plan to reline, or refurbish, 80 MTPA of existing blast furnace capacity.

Those efforts dwarf the amount of blast furnace capacity scheduled to retire as investment in EAF steelmaking begins to plateau. “We are not moving fast enough toward decarbonization to meet net zero goals,” said Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, project manager of GEM’s global iron and steel tracker and author of the report. The share of global EAF steelmaking capacity grew by 1% over the past year to 34%, according to GEM’s report. Emissions-heavy blast furnaces comprise the remaining 66% of global steelmaking capacity.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Daily Market Update May 12, 2026

The June ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.05 at $2.86. The June ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.65 at $100.72.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“If you cheat on your road work in the dark of the morning, you will be found out in the big fight under the bright lights.”

Joe Louis - American Heavyweight Boxing Champion who was born on this day in 1914.

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