Member Briefing May 14, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

PPI = 6% Wholesale Inflation Sees Biggest Increase Since 2022 In April

The producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% for the month, much higher than the 0.5% Dow Jones consensus forecast and the upwardly revised 0.7% March increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. This was the largest monthly gain since March 2022. On an annual basis, the index was up 6%, the biggest increase since December 2022. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI accelerated 1%, compared with the 0.4% estimate. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI rose 0.6 %.

  • Some three-quarters of the gain in goods prices stemmed from a 7.8% jump in final demand energy with more than 40% of that traced to a 15.6% surge in gasoline.
  • While much of the inflation move has been attributed to the war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs that were introduced a year ago, the PPI data shows the price pressures were broad-based.
  • The services index accelerated 1.2%, the biggest monthly gain since March 2022. Two-thirds of the move was attributed to a 2.7% rise in trade services, a sign that tariff costs could be starting to have a larger impact on prices.
  • The move also was buttressed by a 3.5% jump in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling.

Read more at CNBC

Manufacturing Industry Lost 2,000 Jobs In April: BLS

The manufacturing industry lost 2,000 jobs in April, losing some of the momentum it gained the prior month, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released May 8. It’s a moderate 50% increase compared to data from the same time last year, which showed 4,000 job cuts. However, month over month, it’s a plunge of over 113% from March’s 15,000 job count. The separate ISM employment index contracted last month as well, registering 46.4%, according to the ISM.

  • Of the six big manufacturing industries, only transportation equipment, computer and electronic products, and machinery reported higher levels of employment in April, Susan Spence, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement.
  • The transportation equipment sector, which includes trailers and motor vehicle bodies and parts, lost the most jobs last month with approximately 3,600
  • The beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied product sector lost 2,500 workers.
  • Machinery, apparel, paper and plastics and rubber products each lost 1,000 or more employees.
  • In terms of job gains, the chemical sector topped the list in April, adding 2,400 workers.
  • This was followed by the fabricated metal, food, nonmetallic mineral product, primary metal, electrical equipment, appliance and component sectors, which each added 1,000 or more jobs in April.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Mortgage Rates Move To Highest Level In 5 Weeks, But Homebuyers Shake It Off

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.46% from 6.45%, with points decreasing to 0.63 from 0.66, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. Homebuyers, however, appear to be getting used to the new normal of higher mortgage rates. Buyer demand for mortgages helped to push total mortgage application volume up 1.7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 4% for the week and were 7% higher than the same week one year ago. Buyer demand stalled at the beginning of the spring housing market, which coincided with the start of the war with Iran. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 1% for the week and were 28% higher than the same week one year ago.

Read more at Mortgage News Daily

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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Trump/Xi Summit Headlines

Kevin Warsh Has Big Plans For The Fed, But Results May Take Time

Fifteen years after leaving the Federal Reserve in opposition to an expansive bond-buying program that has since saddled it with a $6.7 trillion portfolio, Kevin Warsh is expected to return as the U.S. central bank's leader this month with a big reform agenda that may be tough to translate into quick changes. With ​critiques spanning everything from how the Fed monitors inflation to its willingness to bail out markets to its communications strategy, Warsh's ideas would involve not just technical reform to the central bank's economic analyses, but sensitive ‌shifts in how it speaks to financial markets and the public more broadly - issues previously hashed over and considered hard to meddle with quickly.

Warsh's immediate challenge will be to navigate that same conflict between Trump's rate-cut demands and economic data that leaves little room for them. Warsh has also indicated he would like to change some longstanding communication tools like the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the "dot ​plot" chart of rate projections. There's broad dissatisfaction about aspects of the ​SEP, for example, making that a possible area for ⁠faster reform.

Read More at Reuters

CBO estimates Golden Dome will cost $1.2 trillion over 20 years

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated Tuesday that the Golden Dome missile defense system will cost about $1.2 trillion to develop, deploy and operate over the next 20 years. In a 12-page report, the CBO stated that acquisition costs for a national missile defense system would total more than $1 trillion. That includes funding for interceptor layers, a space-based missile warning and tracking system, research and development and improvements in the system’s integration and performance. Gen. Mike Guetlein, the director of the Office of Golden Dome for America, estimated in March that the missile defense system will cost $185 billion.

Republicans in Congress already allocated $25 billion for the project via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which President Trump signed into law last July. The Pentagon is also asking Congress to provide $17 billion for the project via reconciliation, while officials at the Defense Department said last month that $750 billion of the Trump administration’s record $1.5 trillion defense budget request for fiscal 2027 is earmarked for the missile defense system, drones, artificial intelligence and building up the defense industrial base. The gulf between the cost estimates from Guetlein and the CBO indicate the possibility that the “objective architecture is more limited” for the Pentagon’s plans for the project than the missile defense system that the CBO is accounting for, the new report stated.

Read more at the Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

These Surprising Early Symptoms May Be Linked To Alzheimer's

It might seem like someone with Alzheimer’s disease or another form of dementia wakes up one morning and suddenly struggles to remember important information. But scientists know that what precedes those first memory symptoms is more complex. As long as a decade before memory impairment appears, tendrils of the disease are already subtly taking hold. These changes may even precede the amyloid plaques, detected in imaging tests, that are a known hallmark of Alzheimer’s. Scientists are urgently focusing on these less visible changes. Here are five changes scientists have discovered that might surprise you.

  • Mismanaged finances - People with dementia often forget to pay their bills. Still, it was unexpected when researchers documented in 2020 that missed payments can begin a full six years before a diagnosis.
  • Ongoing weight loss - Researchers have long observed a link between low body mass and dementia, but a study Zhang published in 2024 found that what’s important may not be total weight so much as its downward trajectory. Weight loss often begins a decade before a dementia diagnosis in both men and women, her study found, a process that accelerates in the two to four years prior.
  • Subtle language changes - Seven years before an Alzheimer’s diagnosis, people can already show subtle changes in the complexity of their speech, according to research published in the journal The Lancet. When computers analyzed data from a large, longitudinal study of some 1,200 participants, they found certain speech changes that could predict with 74 percent accuracy who will get the disease.
  • Reduction in sense of smell - While a decrease in odor detection does not automatically indicate coming cognitive disease, it can do so. For each point lost on a 16-point sniff test, one study’s participants had a 22 percent higher risk of a subsequent Alzheimer’s diagnosis.
  • Significant mood shifts - Apathy, irritability, impulsiveness, emotional volatility, and even clinical depression or anxiety can be signs of coming cognitive decline.

Read more at National Geographic

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Trade Wars

In Charts: How the U.S. Became the World’s Greatest Energy Exporter

The shale-drilling boom that began two decades ago not only flooded U.S. markets with oil and gas, it transformed the country into the world’s largest energy exporter. From crude oil and liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to other products such as propane and wood pellets, the flow of fuel from U.S. ports has put a big dent in the national trade deficit and helped to stabilize overseas markets during war and other periods of scarcity.

Energy-industry analysts expect export volumes—already at or near records for various products—to notch new highs. “The question arises as to how long the U.S. can maintain this high pace of exports without jeopardizing its own security of supply,” Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke wrote in a note to clients. One limiting factor will be the availability of export infrastructure, such as the multibillion-dollar terminals that chill natural gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit to make it a liquid suitable for ocean transport.

Read more at The WSJ

Boeing’s New Order Bookings Surge In April

Boeing ​booked 135 net new ​orders in ​April, nearly matching its total in the first three months of the year, the company said on Tuesday. Through the first four ⁠months ‌of the year, Boeing has booked 284 ⁠new orders after adjusting for cancellations and conversions. That is the highest total for that period since 2014. However, that trails European rival ‌Airbus, which has booked 405 orders after cancellations and conversions through April 30. Airbus delivered 67 jets last ​month.

Boeing delivered 47 jetliners in April, one more than the previous month.

Deliveries are when customers hand over most of the cash for a new airplane, ⁠and so are closely tracked by investors. Last month’s deliveries included 34 737 ‌Max jets and six 787s. April’s orders included 57 737 Max jets ⁠and 51 787s, mostly from unidentified customers. They also included 28 777X orders from undisclosed customers. Boeing ​continues working to certify the long-delayed ‌jetliner.

Read more at CNBC

Agentic AI Could Make Robots Affordable for Small Manufacturers

We’re nearly at the end of the AI hype cycle, when suggestions for how to leverage the technology become less flashy and more realistic. Like, for instance, the new agentic AI technology named Eigen, that Siemens revealed at this year’s Hannover Messe automation fair. Siemens pitches Eigen (a pun as the word means own in German but phonetically sounds like AI gen) as a brand-agnostic AI agent that can replace manual coding or programming for programmable logic controllers (PLC), distributed control systems (DCS) and robotics applications, updating code or instructions to reflect new priorities and goals.

“There’s a kind of new age of automation arising, because [with AI assistance to program robots and PLCs] means you could suddenly automate much smaller lot sizes on a good return of investment,” says Rainer Brehm, CEO of Siemens’ automation business. Eigen obviously has yet to prove itself in the wild, and the jury is still out on agentic AI as a whole. But what Siemens means to accomplish with Eigen feels comparatively banal compared to some of the science-fiction-inspired automation fantasies fueled by AI. Eigen feels down-to-earth and relatively simple.

Read more at Industry Week

Ford Cracks Down On Suppliers, Barring Some From New Contracts Over Quality Issues, Cost

Ford is tightening the screws on some of its parts suppliers, telling them they will be cut off from new contracts unless they hit tougher cost and quality benchmarks. The shift marks a sharper enforcement approach across the automaker's supply chain as it hunts for extra margin and tries to avoid the production snags that have dented profits in recent quarters. According to Crain's Detroit Business, company buyers have been warned that suppliers who consistently miss quality targets or fall short of new cost expectations could be ruled ineligible for fresh contract awards.

Sources cited by Crain's say Ford is not rewriting the rulebook so much as cracking down on existing requirements and making cost and quality a hard gate for any new business. The stricter rules raise the stakes for smaller tiered suppliers that rely heavily on Ford awards to keep their operations afloat. Losing eligibility for new work could translate into meaningful revenue hits or pressure to consolidate with rivals. Ford has said it is reorganizing its product-creation and industrialization functions to target "quality and cost" improvements across the lineup, a shift the company has framed as essential to meeting profit goals while stabilizing deliveries.

Read more at Hoodline

OpenAI Chief Sam Altman Denies Betraying Elon Musk, Defends For-Profit Push At Trial

OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman on Tuesday rejected Elon Musk's claim that he betrayed the ChatGPT maker's founding mission to serve the public good, and said it was Musk ​who was interested in seizing control of OpenAI and making money from it. In an August 2024 lawsuit, Musk accused Altman and OpenAI of persuading him into giving $38 million, only to see the ‌nonprofit abandon its mission to benefit humanity and instead become a for-profit corporation.

Under questioning from his lawyer in the Oakland, California, federal court, Altman denied Musk's contention that he and OpenAI President Greg Brockman, who is also a defendant, tried to "steal a charity." Altman said, "it feels difficult to even wrap my head around that framing," and that he hoped that "as OpenAI ​continues to do well, the nonprofit will do even better." During a contentious cross-examination, Musk's lawyer Steven Molo challenged Altman's honesty. He cited ‌testimony from a ⁠former OpenAI board member that Altman fostered a "toxic culture of lying," and from seven former OpenAI officials who said Altman wasn't trustworthy.

Read more at Reuters

GM Cuts 500-600 IT Jobs

General Motors is implementing a round of layoffs targeting 500 to 600 salaried workers in information technology roles, though specific totals are not known. The automaker acknowledged the job cuts following several published reports, but it has not connected the decision to its strategic goal. “GM is transforming its Information Technology organization to better position the company for the future,” it stated by email. “As part of that work, we have made the difficult decision to eliminate certain roles globally. We are grateful for the contributions of the employees affected and are committed to supporting them through this transition.”

Some workers affected by the cuts alleged that GM has encouraged its programmers and data analysts to adopt artificial intelligence in their projects and workflows, implying the IT job cuts will mean a wider reliance on AI to complete data functions. While the job cuts are reported to be “global” in scope, affected employees are concentrated at the GM Technical Center in Warren, Mich., and the IT Innovation Center Austin, Tex.

Read more at American Machinist

Hannover Messe Trade Show Highlights Humanoid Robots (Slide Show)

Humanoid robots were everywhere at Hannover Messe 2026. The show floor space was compacted and had fewer booths and attendees than at past shows, according to veteran attendees of the fair. This just meant it was possible to walk the entire floor and ask about every humanoid robot we could find. IndustryWeek wanted to know what made one model different from the others? How do manufacturers decide which humanoid robot model to deploy?

Industry Week presents fourteen humanoid robots they "met" at the show and tried to answer the all-important question: Why is your robot special? According to Industry Week “we didn't get too many answers. Take that for what you will.”

Read More at Industry Week

Nippon Steel FY2025 Profit Plunges 95%

Nippon Steel, Japan’s biggest steelmaker, posted a net profit of 17.2 billion yen ($109 million) for its fiscal year that ended March 31, 2026. That was down 95% from a year ago as the company navigated weak market conditions and one-off losses following the U.S. Steel acquisition last summer.Revenue was 10 trillion yen ($63.4 billion) during the period, up 15.7% from a year ago. The growth came mostly from its steelmaking and steel fabrication division as Nippon Steel advanced its expansion and production strategies in the United States, Europe, India and Thailand.

Despite an underlying business loss of 5.6 billion yen ($35.5 million) for the year, U.S. Steel is expected to eventually be a profit driver for Nippon Steel. Nippon Steel said U.S. demand is stable as steel exports and imports decline. U.S. Steel has a number of projects underway, including the relining of a blast furnace and a hot strip mill upgrade at Gary Works, as well as the installation of a new slag recycler at Mon Valley Works and a new premium thread line at Fairfield Works.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

OPEC Sees Slower Demand Growth This Year As Production Falls More Than 30% On Hormuz Closure

Oil production among OPEC members fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the start of the Iran war in late February, the cartel said in its latest monthly update on Wednesday. OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4 million bpd previously. Global demand is facing constraints because supply from the Persian Gulf has been effectively cut off by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of the Hormuz.

Oil production among OPEC members fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the start of the Iran war in late February, the cartel said in its latest monthly update on Wednesday. OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4 million bpd previously. Global demand is facing constraints because supply from the Persian Gulf has been effectively cut off by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of the Hormuz.

Read more at CNBC

Daily Market Update May 13, 2026

The June ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.06 at $2.90. The June ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.32 at $102.50. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

 "To do a common thing uncommonly well brings success."

Henry J. Heinz - American Businessman and Founder of H.J. Heinz who died on this day in 1919.

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