Member Briefing May 18, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Empire Manufacturing Survey: Activity Grows ‘Strongly’ in May

Manufacturing activity in New York State grew strongly, according to firms responding to the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business conditions index rose nine points to 19.6, its highest reading since April 2022.

  • The new orders index rose three points to 22.7, its highest level in more than four years.
  • Unfilled orders increased for the fourth consecutive month and the The delivery time index rose eight points to 20.4, a four-year high,
  • The supply availability index remained negative at -10.7, suggesting that delivery times were much longer and supply availability worsened.
  • The index for number of employees was little changed at 8.3, and the average workweek index came in at 11.5, pointing to an ongoing increase in employment levels and hours worked.
  • The prices paid index rose twelve points to 62.6, pointing to a sharp acceleration in input price increases for a second consecutive month, and the prices received index climbed ten points to 31.8.
  • The index for future business conditions rose fourteen points to 33.5, with over fifty percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months.
  • Capital spending plans remained modest.

Read more at The NY Fed

US Manufacturing Output Accelerates On Auto Production In April

U.S. factory production posted its largest increase in 14 months in April, driven by motor vehicles and demand for technology goods amid an artificial intelligence spending boom, but supply disruptions ​from the war with Iran cast a shadow over the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing output increased 0.6% last month, the largest rise since February 2025, after ⁠an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in March, the Federal Reserve said. Factory production advanced ​1.3% on a year-over-year basis in April. Motor vehicle and parts output jumped 3.7%. Production at high-technology industries increased 1.0% after rising 0.5% in March.

Output was boosted by computers and peripheral equipment, which increased ​1.5% for a second straight month. Production of semiconductors and related electronic components rose 1.0% while that of communications equipment increased 0.6%. Excluding high-technology industries and motor vehicles, manufacturing rose 0.3% in April after a similar gain in March. Durable goods production shot ​up 1.2% last month. But output of nondurable goods eased 0.1%, with chemicals falling 0.9%. Production of plastics and rubber products also dropped 0.9%. Output of petroleum and coal products, however, increased 1.0% for ​a second straight month. Production also rose for food, beverage and tobacco products.

Read more at Reuters

Household Debt Rises to $18.79 Trillion in Q1 2026

Total U.S. household debt climbed to a record $18.79 trillion in Q1 2026, a modest 0.1% ($18 billion) increase from the previous quarter. The overall rise was driven by increases across a handful of categories, specifically mortgage and auto loan balances. When adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the household debt balance falls just below its Q1 2009 peak of $19.38 trillion.

  • Mortgage balances increased $21 billion (0.16%) to $13.191 trillion.
  • Auto loan balances increased $18 billion (1.08%) to $1.685 trillion.
  • Balances on home equity lines of credit increased $12 billion (2.86%) to $446 billion.
  • Conversely, credit card balances decreased $25 billion (-1.96%) to $1.252 trillion.
  • Student loan balances decreased $6 billion (-0.36%) to $1.658 trillion.
  • All other debt decreased $2 billion (-0.37%) to $562 billion.
  • As of Q1 2026, mortgage and auto loan balances are at all time high debt levels while credit card, student loan, and other debt balances peaked in the previous quarter (Q4 2025). Balances on home equity lines of credit peaked in Q1 2009.

Read more at Advisor Perspectives

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Trump and Xi Want to Stabilize U.S.-China Ties. Now Comes the Hard Part.

At the end of President Trump’s state visit to China on Friday, with Air Force One lifting off through the haze at Beijing’s airport, both sides hailed a reset in relations—though each has a starkly different idea of what that means. For Trump, it is about opening China’s market to American business and reciprocal trade, reviving a U.S. policy he scrapped in his first presidency, when he had adopted a more hawkish attitude toward Beijing. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, meanwhile, wants “strategic stability”—a predictable relationship in which Washington doesn’t impede Beijing’s economic and geopolitical rise.

Under the surface, however, there remains an intense rivalry that holds the potential to disrupt the world stage, despite the bonhomie of the two-day visit. China is boldly pressing its claims on Taiwan, a self-governing island that the U.S. is committed to supplying with arms for its self-defense. China’s military is becoming increasingly aggressive in the Western Pacific, rattling U.S. allies and posing a serious military and geopolitical challenge to Washington. And China’s support of Iran—an issue Trump raised during his visit—could undermine U.S. efforts to force the regime to give up its nuclear program and halt its aggression in the Middle East.

Read more at The WSJ

New York Passes 12th Budget Extender, One Week Since Hochul Announced Agreement

New York's state legislature has passed a 12th emergency budget extender to keep the government operating and fund payroll through Monday, pushing the state budget to 45 days late. Republicans blame the delay on Democrats in power, while Democrats blame gridlock on Governor Kathy Hochul forcing non-fiscal items into the budget. Lawmakers are still working on changes to Tier 6 pensions, car insurance reforms, and immigration policy, and the final budget will likely push the state's electric school bus deadline back by five years. The extender legislation authorized billions in continued, temporary spending to prevent a government shutdown.

Democratic Assemblymember Gary Pretlow said negotiations are close on rolling back aspects of the State Environmental Quality Review Act and the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act. And Heastie confirmed that the final budget will likely push the state’s electric school bus deadline back, possibly by five years. He said that, on the whole, the state still lacks necessary infrastructure to make any current deadline realistic. State Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt argued that delaying the electric school bus mandate would be proof that the underlying policy is flawed.

Read More at Syracuse.com

Plastic Packaging Reduction Bill Sees Movement In New York Legislature

Thursday, New York state Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie said the packaging reduction bill will be conferenced “as time runs out for non-budget legislation," per Rebecca Lewis of City & State. Advocates are hoping that leads to a floor vote, but the clock is ticking with session scheduled to end on June 4, and lawmakers still negotiating budget policy behind closed doors, six weeks past the April 1 deadline. Last year, the Packaging Reduction and Recycling Infrastructure Act (A1749 Glick/S1464 Harckham), sponsored by the two environmental chairs in the Assembly and Senate, passed in the upper house, but ran out of time to get a floor vote in the Assembly.

The bill has been one of the most heavily lobbied in Albany. It would require manufacturers to reduce single-use plastic packaging in the state by 30% over the next 12-15 years. It would also limit manufacturers’ use of certain chemicals and shift the financial responsibility for solid waste disposal from municipalities to big business. “It’s going to force companies to change their production processes, change the materials they use, and in some cases, go from cheaper materials to more expensive materials. All of those things are going to add to the cost of goods to market,” said Vice President of the Business Council of New York Ken Pokalsky.

Read more at NY State of Politics

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Workers Told Monster Their Job Harms Their Mental Health

In recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, Monster® released its 2026 State of Workplace Mental Health Report, based on 1,000 employed U.S. workers, revealing that workplace stress, burnout, and toxic workplace dynamics remain a persistent reality for many employees. The workplace is wearing on workers’ mental health — with 59% saying their job harms their mental health on a monthly basis and 7 in 10 saying they feel pressure to appear “okay” at work, according to Monster’s 2026 State of Workplace Mental Health Report, released Friday. 

Burnout and stress are now commonplace, with 46% and 59% reporting such feelings on a daily or weekly basis, Monster found. More than one-third of the 1,000 currently employed U.S. workers surveyed also reported anxiety, panic, trouble sleeping and headaches, and 1 in 4 reported symptoms of depression. Top workplace contributors to negative mental health included increased workload or understaffing, poor management and difficulty attaining work-life balance. Workers also cited workplace conflict, stagnant pay and fear of layoffs.

Read more at HR.com

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April Retail Sales Up Despite Inflation & Gas Prices

April's retail sales data sent a reassuring signal Thursday morning: Despite rising gasoline prices, consumers aren't dramatically pulling back from spending in other areas. Overall, sales were up 0.5% last month compared with March, after rising by 1.6% the month before, according to the Commerce Department. That slowdown isn't as bad as it looks, because the March numbers largely reflected sharply higher gasoline prices. Gas prices didn't climb as fast in April, so the dollars spent at the pump didn't rise as fast either.

Sales growth at bars and restaurants picked up, showing that shoppers haven't lost their appetite for going out. Online sales growth accelerated too. On the whole, economists studying the numbers estimated that Americans' shopping continued to outpace inflation last month, suggesting that consumers were still contributing to economic growth. Nevertheless, there were some signs of weakness. Sales at furniture stores declined, and purchases at health and personal-care stores were flat.

Read more at WSJ

Anduril Raises $5B, Plans To Invest In Manufacturing, R&D

Defense startup Anduril Industries raised $5 billion in a series H funding, bringing the company’s value to $61 billion, CEO Brian Schimpf announced Wednesday. The funding allows the company to continue “investing aggressively in manufacturing capacity, research and development, and the infrastructure required to build and field advanced defense systems at scale,” Schimpf stated in the press release. The series H funding was led by venture capital firms Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.

In addition to the recent fundraiser, Anduril is one of five weapons makers that signed agreements to supply the U.S. Department of Defense with 10,000 low-cost missiles. The other manufacturers are Leidos, CoAspire, Castelion and Zone 5.  Anduril’s contract involves supplying a minimum of 3,000 surface-launched Barracuda-500M missiles to the U.S. Army’s Portfolio Acquisition Executive Fires program, according to the company’s press release. The Army’s PAE Fires program manages a portfolio of weapon systems, including long-range precision fires. The program also oversees development, production, fielding and sustainment, according to the Army’s website.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Pentagon Awards $2B for New Sub Construction

The Pentagon awarded a $2.3-billion contract modification to General Dynamics Electric Boat Corp. to cover the costs of long lead-time material acquisition and early manufacturing for the Virginia-class Block VI submarines. Most of the funding is designated for work by General Dynamics’ operation in Sunnyvale, Calif., though locations in 11 other states are also identified for smaller assignments.

The Virginia-class subs are fast-attack, missile-armed vessels designed for anti-submarine warfare and intelligence gathering operations. The program has been underway for over two decades, and the U.S. Navy anticipates they will replace the Los Angeles-class subs over the coming decades. The Virginia-class Block VI subs will be the next-generation iteration of the Navy's nuclear-powered attack submarines, in development with a focus on advanced seabed warfare, improved stealth technologies, and launch and recover capabilities for undersea drones. Block VI is expected to comprise a total of 10 new submarines, two of which have already been authorized for construction by, respectively, Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries Newport News Shipbuilding, with total projected cost estimated at $45–50 billion.

Read more at American Machinist

Takeaways From Q1's EV Sales In The U.S.

Americans bought some 216,000 new electric cars in the first three months of 2026, according to Cox Automotive’s latest estimates out Friday. Sales plunged by 27% on a year-over-year basis, after dropping 36% in the previous quarter. In terms of overall quarterly sales volume, the EV market has been set back to about late 2022. All the policy whiplash has dealt a one-two punch to the electric market—by dampening consumer interest in EVs and eliminating much of the pressure for carmakers to sell them. Car companies are now teasing out where the new normal for EV demand will land without tax credits. They have canceled or delayed numerous models as a result, which has deal a blow to sales; Americans can only buy what's available on dealer lots.

Electric car sales skyrocketed during Q3’s rush to claim the expiring EV tax credit, resulting in over 10% EV market share that quarter. Then sales crashed by some 46% in Q4. But EV share has been flat at around 6% over the last two quarters. Most brands saw EV sales drop in this rockier environment, but some fared better than others. Stellantis experienced well over 80% declines across the Fiat 500e, Jeep Wagoneer S, and Dodge Charger EV. Cadillac, meanwhile, was up by about 20% in Q1, the result of a large and growing lineup. Rivian’s sales also rose year over year. Hyundai managed to stay just about flat, after it slashed the price of its Ioniq 5 by nearly $10,000.

Read more at Inside EVs

Honda Posts First Annual Loss On $9 Billion EV Writedown, Scraps EV Sales Goals

Honda Motor posted its ​first annual loss in nearly 70 years as a listed company on Thursday, hit by more than $9 billion in costs ‌to restructure its electric-vehicle business, and the firm scrapped its long-term EV sales target. Revealing its worst financial report since Honda listed on the stock market in 1957 underscores how risky an aggressive bet on EVs can be for a legacy automaker when it slams into weaker-than-expected demand.

Its operating ‌loss totalled ⁠414.3 billion yen ($2.63 billion) for the year ended March, compared with a median estimate of a 315.6 billion yen loss in a poll of 22 analysts by LSEG and a 1.2 trillion yen profit a year earlier. Honda booked total EV-related losses of 1.45 trillion yen for the business year ended March and expects to face additional costs of 500 billion yen for the year just started. That compares with EV writedown ​costs of up to 2.5 trillion ​yen that Honda estimated in March. The ⁠company still expects to return to profitability this year, forecasting a 500 billion yen profit on cost-reduction measures and its profitable motorcycle business.

Read more at Reuters

Blue Origin Eyes Austin Suburb Of Hutto For $650M Industrial Megaproject

Blue Origin is zeroing in on Hutto for a massive industrial campus that could cement Williamson County as Central Texas’ aerospace hub. The aerospace company is eyeing Hutto for a 1.3 million-square-foot manufacturing, research-and-development, warehouse and logistics project in the fast-growing Austin suburb, the Austin Business Journal reported.

Officials said the proposed Hutto development would bring more than 2,000 jobs over five years with average annual salaries of roughly $88,000. Capital investment was pegged at more than $650 million, though the outlet reported that previous recruitment materials circulated by state and regional economic development groups suggested the total project could ultimately cost $1 billion.

Read more at The Real Deal

Boeing Plans $1B Investment In Kansas Facilities

Boeing CEO and President Kelly Ortberg announced last week that the plane manufacturer will invest $1 billion in its Wichita, Kansas, facilities over the next three years. The funds will be used to upgrade factories, expand worker training and bolster the company’s manufacturing system in preparation to increase production rates, as well as deliver “safe, quality” planes to its customers, according to a fact sheet. The investment came months after Boeing completed its $8.3 billion acquisition of former fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems in December 2025.

Additionally, Boeing partnered with Wichita State University’s Campus of Applied Sciences and Technology to build a new training facility. The 35,000-square-foot Boeing Workforce Training Center will include classrooms, specialized training labs and employee testing and assessment areas, according to the school’s May 8 press release. The center will serve as the centralized training hub for Boeing’s Wichita-area workforce with the capacity to support “thousands of trainees” yearly.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Emirates, GE Aerospace Partner To Enhance Engine Repairs

Emirates will leverage GE Aerospace knowledge and expertise to advance its Airbus A380 and Boeing 777 engine repair capabilities in Dubai, UAE. On May 14, 2026, Emirates announced a deal had been struck with GE Aerospace to provide technical and training support to develop piece part component repair capabilities for GE90 and GP 7200 engines. GE Aerospace’s GE90 engine powers Emirates Boeing 777 jets while Engine Alliance’s GP7200 is used by the bulk of the airline’s Airbus A380.

GE Aerospace will provide technical consultancy to Emirates in setting up the piece part component repair line, as well as in knowledge transfer to the EEMC team for best practices and benchmarks in component repair. Rolls-Royce’s RR Trent 900 is also used by Emirates to power some of its Airbus A380s. In November 2025, the two partners signed an agreement paving the way for Emirates to perform maintenance, repair and overhaul on their own Trent 900 engines.

Read More at Aerotime

New Boeing Jet Design is Underway

Boeing Commercial Airplanes has begun to evaluate design choices for a new narrow-body aircraft, larger than the forthcoming 737 MAX 10. According to a report by Bloomberg, Boeing is indicating it aims to introduce the new model by 2030 and make it available for commercial service by the middle of the next decade. Boeing is said to be seeking aircraft that can be as cost efficient as the single-aisle 737 MAX - but with capacity for more passengers and longer range. Boeing’s largest 737 option now is the 737 MAX 10, which will carry up to 230 passengers and has a range of approximately 3,300 nautical miles (3,796 miles / 6,110 km.)

Choosing the advanced design elements of the new aircraft is the process now underway for Boeing engineers. A lighter weight and more aerodynamic design incorporating insights from the 737 MAX, 777X, and 787 Dreamliner, including use of composite materials, may be assumed. The longer, carbon-fiber reinforced polymer, airfoil wings with folding tips featured on the 777X are a possible choice, according to reports. The reports also make clear that Boeing will not be opting for various emerging aircraft design possibilities, such as the blended wing or open-rotor engine concepts. A recognizable tube structure with turbofan engines appear to be likely, based on customers’ expectations.

Read more at American Machinist

Environmental Defense Fund: Q1 Saw Net Loss Of 5,900 Renewable Energy Manufacturing Jobs

Renewable energy manufacturing employment took a hit in the first quarter of 2026, with a total loss of about 8,100 jobs and a net loss of 5,900 jobs, according to an Environmental Defense Fund report. The sector also saw $1.4 billion in cancelled investments, although there was a $1.1 billion net increase in investments overall. The cancellations followed federal rollbacks targeting renewable energy incentives, including EV rebates and tax incentives for energy-efficient buildings, as well as emissions standards.

The most affected sectors from January 2025 through Q1 2026 were EVs and batteries, with 15% of announced EV investments and 12% of battery investments canceled. However, companies continued investing in transmission equipment, grid technologies and solar manufacturing in Q1. The report noted that international geopolitics also affected the U.S. renewable energy manufacturing sector. For example, Canada allowed the first imports of Chinese EVs starting March 1, and the war in Iran continues to roil energy markets. These and other events throughout 2025 and 2026 have forced manufacturers to rethink renewable energy projects in the U.S. According to the report, manufacturers canceled four facilities in Q1, resulting in a loss of $1.4 billion in previously announced investments. Several other facilities announced pauses in manufacturing.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Daily Market Update May 15, 2026

The June ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.06 at $2.95. The June ‘26 crude oil contract is up $3.22 at $104.39

Read more at NRG

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“The hardest thing to learn in life is which bridge to cross and which to burn.”

Bertrand Russell - Welsh Philosopher who was born on this day in 1872.

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