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Member Briefing February 19, 2026

Date postedFebruary 19, 2026
Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

More Than Just Tech: Durable Goods Growth Signals Evident in Broader Range of Industries

Get past the slip in aircraft orders and what emerges from the details of the December durable goods report are modest increases in orders across most durable goods categories. Since expectations were so tepid, even these modest gains exceeded expectations. As is often the case with the durable goods report, a headline reading often misses the important developments. December was no exception with overall orders for long-lived capital goods down 1.4%, and, after excluding defense spending, orders fell 2.5%. But most of the "weakness" was in civilian aircraft orders which fell 25% in December, but that follows a near doubling (+98%) in non-defense aircraft orders in November, so the giveback here in December is not terribly disconcerting. In fact, civilian aircraft orders are up 69% over the past year, more than any other major category of durable goods orders.

The other main transports category, motor vehicles and parts, notched a 1.2% increase in orders in December after back-to-back declines in the two preceding months. Once you start to exclude these notoriously jumpy categories, a brighter picture emerges. Orders excluding transportation have firmed in recent months and rose 0.9% in January which was three-times the consensus expectation. Orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex. air) looked better too, up 0.6% in December (twice the 0.3% expectation), and that better-than-expected reading came on the heels of an upward revision. Shipments of core capital goods rose 0.9% which also handily exceeded expectations, but remains consistent with our expectation for real equipment investment to rise at a near 4% annualized clip in Q4 when data print Friday.

Read more at Wells Fargo

US Industrial Production Ramps to 11-Month High as Trade Uncertainty Eases

U.S. industrial output charged ahead in January, according to data published by the Federal Reserve Wednesday morning. Production rose by 0.7% last month, after rising by 0.2% in December—a third straight month of higher output. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a 0.3% increase. Manufacturing activity rose by 0.6%, and output from utilities increased by 2.1%. Mining output declined by 0.2%.

Utilization of U.S. industrial capacity increased to 76.2%, from 75.7% in December. Over the past 12 months, U.S. industrial capacity has increased by 1.4%, driven by a 1.1% increase in manufacturing capacity and a 4.3% increase in utilities capacity.

Read more at The WSJ

Housing Starts Rise In December, Showing Momentum Going Into The New Year

New housing construction rebounded in the final two months of last year, a sign there could be gradual improvement in the beaten-down sector in 2026. Construction of new U.S. homes rose 6.2% in December to an annual pace of 1.40 million units, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s the highest level since July. Economists on Wall Street were expecting a 5.1% rise in housing starts to 1.31 million. All numbers are seasonally adjusted. The government released two months of construction data that had been delayed by the lengthy government shutdown in the fall.

The increase in home construction in November and December was concentrated in single-family starts. Lower mortgage rates may have played a role, and that could continue this year, economists said. Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 4.3% to a 1.45 million rate in December. That’s higher than the 1.40 million rate expected by Wall Street and is also a sign of momentum, economists said.

Read more at MarketWatch

NY Fed: Service Sector Business Activity ‘Declined Significantly’ In February

Business activity continued to decline significantly in the region’s service sector in February, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell ten points to -25.7. The business climate index dropped seven points to -41.7, suggesting the business climate remained much worse than normal.

The employment index moved down four points to -9.7, its sixth consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to drop. The wages index climbed seven points to 37.4. The prices paid index held steady at 62.6, and the prices received index was stable at 29.9, pointing to little change in the pace of both input and selling price increases. The index for future business activity rose five points to 17.5, signaling that firms anticipate a modest pickup in activity over the next six months. Employment is expected to grow. Firms continue to expect price increases in the months ahead, but those expectations were at their lowest level in over a year. Capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at the NY Fed

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Fed Minutes Reveal Officials Continue To Hold Mixed Views

The minutes of the Fed's January 27-28 meeting said several participants felt further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations. However, others believed it would likely be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for "some time" as the Fed carefully assesses incoming data. A number of these participants judged that additional policy easing may not be warranted until there was clear indication that the progress of disinflation was firmly back on track, the Fed said.

The minutes revealed those who favored leaving rates unchanged generally viewed the current stance of monetary policy was within the range of estimates of the neutral level following last year's rate cuts. "They commented that maintaining the current target range of the federal funds rate at this meeting would leave policymakers well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the policy rate," the Fed said. Meanwhile, the Fed said those who preferred cutting rates expressed concerns that the current stance of the policy rate was still meaningfully restrictive and viewed downside risks to the labor market as a more prominent policy concern than the risk of persistently elevated inflation.

Read more at Nasdaq

Kathy Hochul's Health Care Push Runs Into Wall In Washington

Gov. Kathy Hochul wants to work with House Republicans to ensure noncitizens and low-income New Yorkers continue to receive health care coverage beyond July. Finding any takers inside the Empire State’s GOP delegation hasn’t been easy. At stake is health care for roughly 1.5 million New Yorkers who may lose coverage following approval of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spending package. The Democratic governor, facing a tricky reelection, is trying to persuade recalcitrant House Republicans to advocate for a waiver from the federal government that would preserve coverage for roughly two-thirds of the people slated to lose benefits.

The public health plan offers affordable coverage to 1.7 million New Yorkers through the Affordable Care Act. The coverage extends to more than 700,000 lawfully present immigrants who will become ineligible in July due to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Hochul administration is looking to revert to a former iteration of its public health plan, which would allow the state to access an accumulated surplus of federal funding. If approved, that money would cover 1.3 million enrollees who would otherwise lose coverage or get rolled into the state’s Medicaid program. Hochul’s proposal would still leave roughly 470,000 Essential Plan enrollees without coverage.

Read more at Politico

ICE Retracts Statement On Chester Detention Center, Says Warehouse Was Not Purchased

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement now says it did not purchase the former warehouse in Chester, reversing an earlier confirmation sent to News 12. In a statement to News 12, an ICE spokesperson said, “ICE has not purchased a facility in Chester, New York. That statement was sent without proper approval and this mistake has since been rectified.” Federal officials had confirmed to News 12 last Friday that the property at 29 Elizabeth Drive had been purchased and could house up to 1,500 detainees as part of expanded detention capacity in New York.

ICE’s updated statement did not explain how the earlier confirmation was issued or clarify the current status of the property. The initial confirmation on Friday quickly sparked controversy across the Hudson Valley. Local leaders raised concerns about infrastructure, public safety and a lack of communication from federal officials. Lawmakers publicly opposed the move, protests were organized, and county officials began discussing preparations for potential large-scale demonstrations if the site were to become operational. It remains unclear whether the Chester site is still under consideration or what prompted the conflicting statements.

Read more at News 12

More Policy and Politics Headlines

FDA Chief Says ‘Everything Should Be Over The Counter’ Unless Drug Is Unsafe Or Addictive

In an interview Wednesday in Washington, D.C., Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Marty Makary said the FDA aims to make changes this year that allow more companies to offer their prescription medicines over the counter, or OTC. He noted that the agency is going through “the proper regulatory processes” to update OTC monographs – the rulebooks that determine which drugs can be sold without a prescription.

The FDA has long considered making some prescription drugs available OTC to improve accessibility, reduce health-care costs and help patients stay on their medications. For example, patients wouldn’t have to take time off work to see a doctor for a prescription or could refill a drug without delay. Congress boosted the effort through legislation in November that streamlines the regulatory process for prescription-to-OTC transitions, including full, conditional and partial “switch” pathways. Makary said the FDA is looking at “basic, safe” prescription drugs like nausea medications and vaginal estrogen, which is used to treat menopausal symptoms like dryness and pain.

Read more at CNBC

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, March 24, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

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Training

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Lean Overview & Simulation This two half-day virtual Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, provides a comprehensive introduction to Lean principles, tools, and methodologies. March 3 & 4 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Mistral CEO: Over 50% of Enterprise SaaS Could Flip to AI

The AI disruption of enterprise software just got a bold prediction attached to it. Mistral AI's CEO declared that more than 50% of enterprise software could switch to AI models. The statement from one of Europe's hottest AI startups puts a specific number on what many in the industry have been whispering - that AI agents and large language models are about to fundamentally reshape how businesses buy and use software. Investors are essentially asking: if an AI agent can draft emails, manage customer data, and generate reports, who needs standalone software for each function?

The mechanics of this shift are already visible. Traditional SaaS companies charge per user per month, whether that's $50 for a Salesforce seat or $30 for a Slack license. AI agents, by contrast, can handle tasks across multiple software categories simultaneously, potentially replacing several point solutions with a single AI system that costs pennies per query. A customer service AI could replace help desk software, CRM tools, and knowledge base platforms all at once. But Mistral's 50% prediction suggests something more nuanced than total replacement. The CEO appears to be drawing a line between software categories that are ripe for AI transformation and those that will persist in traditional forms. Transactional systems, creative tools, and workflow automation software face immediate pressure. Enterprise resource planning, security infrastructure, and compliance systems might prove more durable.

Read more at The Tech Buzz

Smithfield to Build $1.3B Pork Processing Plant

Smithfield Foods said Monday it would spend up to $1.3 billion over the next three years on a new combined packaged meats and pork processing plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The highly automated facility is set to be “the most modern of its kind in the U.S.,” the pork giant said in a statement, and will help deliver “significant efficiency gains” to the company’s fresh pork and high-value packaged meat operations.

The building will replace the pork giant’s existing manufacturing facility in the city, which is more than 100 years old. The plant is expected to begin production at the end of 2028. Smithfield is reshaping its U.S. manufacturing footprint as meatpackers face rising costs for live animals and look for new ways to save money. To reduce costs, Smithfield has looked to simplify its supply chain and find savings through manufacturing efficiencies. The pork giant recently said it would close a dry sausage plant in Massachusetts, with plans to move production to other facilities

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Nvidia Announces Multi-Year Partnership With Meta To Expand AI Infrastructure

Nvidia on Tuesday announced a wide-ranging, multi-year partnership with Meta (META) that will see the Mark Zuckerberg-led company use several of Nvidia's products to boost its artificial intelligence infrastructure. As part of the deal, Meta is going to increase its usage of Nvidia's Grace CPUs in its data centers. The collaboration represents the first large-scale NVIDIA Grace-only deployment, Nvidia added.

The two tech giants are also working on the eventual deployment of Nvidia's upcoming Vera CPUs, which may be deployed at scale next year. The Facebook parent also will use more of Nvidia's Spectrum-X Ethernet in an effort to boost network efficiency and throughput. Lastly, Meta has adopted Nvidia's Confidential Computing for WhatsApp, which allows for increased AI capabilities while protecting user privacy at the same time. Meta will use Nvidia's GB300 systems in its data centers and use Nvidia's cloud partner deployments to simplify its operations.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Widespread Growth Propels United States Business Aviation To Record Heights During 2025

As of February 17, 2026, the business aviation sector has officially closed the books on one of its most prolific years in history. According to the newly released 2025 Business Aviation Review from ARGUS International, flight activity across North America surged to 3.4 million operations, with a staggering 47 out of 50 U.S. states logging year-over-year growth. The true engine of this growth has been the fractional ownership segment. While traditional Part 91 (corporate-owned) flight departments saw a modest uptick of 2.1%, fractional operators, led by giants like NetJets and Flexjet, posted a nearly 10% increase in activity.

This trend suggests that even the largest corporations are diversifying their lift strategies, moving away from whole-aircraft ownership in favor of the flexibility provided by fractional shares. This shift has also impacted aircraft manufacturers, with Bombardier, Gulfstream, and Textron all reporting record deliveries in 2025 to keep up with fleet demand.

Read more at Aero Explorer

Oil Jumps 3% After Vance Says Iran Ignored Key U.S. Demand, Military Strikes On The Table

Oil prices rose 3% on Wednesday, after Vice President JD Vance said Iran did not address U.S. red lines in nuclear talks this week and President Donald Trump reserves the right to use military force. U.S. crude oil rose $1.99, or 3.19%, to $64.32 per barrel by 10:09 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent was up $2.04, or 3.03%, to $69.46 per barrel. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva on Tuesday. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the discussions as “constructive,” according to Iranian media.

Araghchi said the talks yielded a general agreement on guiding principles.

Oil prices closed lower Tuesday as traders interpreted the foreign minister’s comments as a sign that the U.S. and Iran could still reach a settlement. But Vance said Tehran had failed to address core U.S. demands. Trump reserves the right to use force if diplomacy does not succeed in stopping Iran’s nuclear program, Vance said. “We do have a very powerful military — the president has shown a willingness to use it,” the vice president told Fox News.

Read more at Oil Price

Amazon Pulls The Plug On 'Blue Jay' Warehouse Robot After Only A Few Months

Amazon has pulled the plug on one of its newest warehouse robots, a few months after unveiling it. Blue Jay, a multi-armed robotic system Amazon launched in October for its same-day delivery warehouses, quietly shut down in January, according to people familiar with the matter. Many employees who worked on the project were reassigned to other robotics initiatives, the people added, while asking not to be identified discussing private matters.

The move shows how hard it is to develop AI robotics technology that's useful and cost-effective. Generative AI has made huge gains in the digital world, thanks to free training data on the web. In the physical realm, useful training data is harder to come by, and the challenges of operating robots in real-world settings are much greater. Terrence Clark, an Amazon spokesperson, told Business Insider that Blue Jay's core technology will be carried over to other initiatives across the company's network of warehouses. Developed in just over a year, far faster than earlier robots like Robin or Sparrow, Blue Jay leveraged advances in AI to accelerate training and deployment. The machine featured multiple robotic arms capable of reaching and lifting several items at once, a design intended to boost productivity while creating a safer environment for frontline workers. Internally, though, the project ran into headwinds. People familiar with the effort cited Blue Jay's high cost, manufacturing complexity, and implementation challenges as reasons it was ultimately put on pause.

Read more at Business Insider

General Mills Cuts Outlook Due to Weak Consumer Sentiment

General Mills lowered its sales and profit outlook for the fiscal year, as stressed consumers are buying fewer snacks and looking for more promotions. “Weak consumer sentiment, heightened uncertainty, and significant volatility have weighed on category growth and impacted consumer purchase patterns, resulting in a slower pace and higher cost of volume recovery than initially expected,” the maker of Cheerios and Pillsbury said. Chief Executive Jeff Harmening said that inflation, SNAP benefits reductions and geopolitical uncertainty “have led to significant consumer stress, especially for the middle and lower income groups.”

The company said it is prioritizing product innovation, including for new protein-focused offerings, and expects a 25% increase in net sales from new products in 2026. “Anti-obesity drugs will have a lasting influence on the food market, “nudging some consumers toward smaller portions and more nutrient-dense protein and fiber-forward foods,” Harmening says. General Mills has cut prices across two-thirds of its North America segment’s portfolio, a decision the company said is now leading to higher sales volume.

Read more at the WSJ

Moderna Says The FDA Will Consider Its New Flu Shot After Resolving A Public Dispute

The Food and Drug Administration will consider whether to approve Moderna’s new flu vaccine after all, resolving a dispute that had blocked the company’s application for the first-of-its-kind shot. Moderna announced the change Wednesday, about a week after revealing that the FDA’s vaccine chief was refusing to review the new vaccine, made with Nobel Prize-winning mRNA technology.

The dispute centered over a 40,000-person clinical trial that concluded Moderna’s new vaccine was more effective in adults age 50 and older than one of the standard flu shots used today. In the FDA’s rare “refusal to file” letter, vaccine director Dr. Vinay Prasad faulted the trial for not including another brand specifically recommended for people 65 and older. Moderna publicly objected. It said that while the FDA had recommended that approach, the agency ultimately agreed to the study’s design — and that the company shared additional comparison data from a separate trial that used a high-dose shot for older people. Nor did the FDA identify any safety concerns.

Read more at The AP

Daily Market Update Feb 18, 2026

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.02 at $3.01. The Mar ‘26 crude oil contract is up $1.49 at $63.80.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“I wanted you to see what real courage is, instead of getting the idea that courage is a man with a gun in his hand. It's when you know you're licked before you begin, but you begin anyway and see it through no matter what.”

Harper Lee - American Author from her novel "To Kill a Mockingbird." She died on this day in 2016.

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