Member Briefing August 5, 2025
ISM: US Manufacturing Contracts at Fastest Pace in Nine Months
The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI registered 48% in July. This decrease of one percentage point from June’s figure of 49% indicates that manufacturing economic activity contracted at a faster rate last month. July marks the fifth consecutive month of contraction. “Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, only one (production) is in expansion territory, down from two in June,” says Susan Spence, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee. Anything lower than 50% represents contraction.
- The production index remained in expansion territory, gaining 1.1 points for a July reading of 51.4%.
- The new orders index continued contraction but at a slower rate after recording a 0.7-point increase to 47.1% last month.
- The employment index dropped 1.6 points to 43.4% in July. “For every comment on hiring, there were two on reducing head counts — a fairly wide ratio, historically speaking — reflecting companies’ continuing focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand,” says Spence.
- “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, none expanded in July, compared to four in June,” Spence says.
- In the comments of the survey, respondents report a mixed bag of business conditions depending on industry, but concerns around tariffs and uncertainty still dominate the conversation.
Manufacturing Employment Dipped in July, May and June Numbers Revised Lower
Manufacturing employment slipped by 11,000, and the collective job losses in June and May of 14,000 were revised upward by 8,000 jobs to a decrease of 26,000 jobs. Durable goods manufacturing employment stayed the same in July, while nondurable goods employment declined by 11,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in July occurred in fabricated metal product manufacturing, which added 1,900 jobs over the month.
Meanwhile, the most significant losses occurred in beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied product manufacturing, which shed 3,500 jobs over the month, followed by machinery manufacturing, which lost 3,200 jobs.
Worldwide Manufacturing Sector Slips Back Into Contraction At Start Of Third Quarter
Worldwide manufacturing business conditions deteriorated slightly in July, reflecting downturns in output, new orders, exports and employment. Business confidence about the year ahead slipped to a three-month low. The latest surveys showed signs of a fading impact from the recent frontrunning of US tariffs alongside ongoing concerns about the underlying strength of economic conditions in the months ahead.
The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI® posted 49.7 in July, down from 50.4 in June, falling back below the neutral 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction. Manufacturing production declined for the second time in the past three months, although the rate of contraction was only moderate. Data broken down by sector reinforced the sense of a reversal in fortunes. After seeing mild growth in June, all three of the industries covered (consumer, intermediate and investment goods) saw modest downturns in production during the latest survey month.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Iran Military Chief Warns of New Attacks - Newsweek
- Hamas Refuses To Disarm Until Palestinian State Established - BBC
- Videos Of Emaciated Israeli Hostages In Gaza Increase Pressure On Netanyahu For A Ceasefire - AP
- Israel Considers Expanding Gaza War As Ceasefire Talks Reach An Impasse - CNN
- France Launches Airdrop of 40 Tons of Humanitarian Aid Into Gaza - Newsweek
- Israeli Government Votes to Oust Attorney General - WSJ
- Photos Show Palestinians Pursuing Food Aid After The Latest Air Drops In Gaza - AP
- Lebanon President Vows 'Justice Is Coming' Five Years After Beirut Port Blast – France 24
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Downplays Trump's Submarine Move, Calls For Caution On Nuclear Rhetoric – France 24
- Home By Home, Russia Is Selling Occupied Ukraine To Russians - WSJ
- Witkoff Set To Visit Russia For ‘Last Chance’ Talks On Ukraine War – The Hill
- Putin Gives Update on Zelensky Talks - Newsweek
- Trump’s Deadline For The Kremlin Looms But Putin Shows No Sign Of Making Concessions - AP
- Ukraine Bets Big On Interceptor Drones As Low-Cost Air Shield - Reuters
- China and Russia Make Military Maneuvers After Trump's Nuclear Threat - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- UN Report: (Almost) No One Is Reading UN Reports - Reuters
- Hunger Mounts, Cemeteries Grow In Sudan's Besieged Al-Fashir - Reuters
- China Is Choking Supply of Critical Minerals to Western Defense Companies – WSJ
- Trump’s Penalty Threat Puts India In A Bind Over Russian Oil - CNBC
- Brazil's Bolsonaro Arrested, Adding To Tensions With Trump - Reuters
- Spain’s Summer Of CV-Related Resignations - Politico
- South Korea Makes Gesture of Reconciliation to North Korea - Newsweek
- China Pushes Back At US Demands To Stop Buying Russian And Iranian Oil - AP
- Russia Targeting Voters Across EU, Moldova Warns – Politico
Policy and Politics
DiNapoli: DOL Agrees to Enhancements in Access, Oversight and Data Accuracy in Apprenticeship Programs
New York state’s over 900 registered apprenticeship programs provide thousands of people with paid, hands-on training in skilled, in-demand trades, ranging from information technology to health care. A new audit released by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli highlights the potential of these programs but found key areas for improvements at the Department of Labor (DOL) which oversees them.
The audit recommends several important changes at DOL to improve efficiency, oversight and data integrity. According to DOL’s response to the audit, some changes are planned or underway, including:
- Faster Application Approvals: DOL approved 23 long-stalled applications from employers, unions or trade associations seeking to sponsor apprenticeship programs after auditors found that some applications had remained pending for more than three years. DOL plans to implement a Registered Apprenticeship System that includes a new digital application portal for potential sponsors to submit materials, track progress and help reduce future delays.
- Improved Monitoring: DOL is taking steps to ensure that monitoring visits to programs happen on schedule. These visits help determine sponsor compliance with program terms and provide technical assistance.
- Improved Data: DOL said its planned system will capture more information to support staff oversight, allow sponsors to identify and report errors and include data validation mechanisms.
- Increased Outreach and Promotion: DOL plans to incorporate questions about promotion of new trades and tax credit opportunities during staff visits with program sponsors.
The Council of Industry is an apprentice program sponsor. DOL officials noted the modernization of the Registered Apprenticeship system will address many of the audit’s findings, and their response is included in the audit.
Read more at the Comptroller’s website
Learn more about the Council of Industry’s Apprentice Program
New York Retaliates Against Texas Republicans’ Mid-Decade Redistricting Plan
Gov. Kathy Hochul and other state leaders said they would begin the process of redistricting in New York to benefit Democrats in response to Texas Republicans’ plans to alter that state’s congressional map ahead of schedule to create more GOP seats. “If Republicans are willing to rewrite these rules to give themselves an advantage, then they are leaving us no choice,” Hochul said at a press conference joined by Democrats from Texas. “We must do the same.” Typically, congressional maps are redrawn every 10 years after the U.S. census to reflect population changes. The maps were last redrawn in 2021.
Hochul said Democrats would soon begin crafting legislation to amend the state constitution to allow the creation of new maps. The state legislature would have to approve the measure twice in two separate legislative sessions. It could go on the ballot for voters to approve in the fall of 2027 and be enacted in time for congressional races in 2028, Hochul said. Hochul said she is in favor of eliminating or making changes to the New York State Independent Redistricting Commission, a bipartisan panel responsible for drawing congressional maps in the state. Hochul said she deeply values the aspirations of the commission but noted other states don’t care about providing a fair redistricting process.
Remember the NY Legislature’s 2022 redistricting mess – Brennen Center for Justice
White House Defends Firing Of Labor Official As Critics Warn Of Trust Erosion
White House economic advisers on Sunday defended President Donald Trump's firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, pushing back against criticism that Trump's action could undermine confidence in official U.S. economic data. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CBS that Trump had "real concerns" about the BLS data, while Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said the president "is right to call for new leadership." In an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation," Greer acknowledged there were always revisions of job numbers, "but sometimes you see these revisions go in really extreme ways."
Hassett said on Fox News Sunday the main concern was Friday's BLS report of net downward revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs had been created in May and June than previously reported. The BLS gave no reason for the revised data but noted "monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors." Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America said large revisions of economic data could undermine public confidence and that government officials should develop ways of improving data quality. "They can get this data, I think, other ways and I think that's where the focus ought to be: how do we get the data to be more resilient and more predictable and more understandable?" he said on CBS. "Because what bounces around is restatements ... that creates doubt about it."
Political Headlines
- Trump Set To Name Replacements At The Fed And Bureau Of Labor Statistics In Coming Days – CNBC
- Molinaro Confirmed As Head Of Federal Transit Administration – Mid-Hudson News
- Senate Heads Home With No Deal To Speed Confirmations – Spectrum
- PBM Market Dominated By Four Giants, Raising Concerns About Costs, Competition – Benefits Pro
- Trump Administration: States And Cities Will Not Receive Any Of $1.9 Billion In State Natural Disaster Preparation Funds If They Boycott Israeli Companies - Reuters
- Texas Democrats Leave State To Block GOP Redistricting Vote—Gov. Abbott Threatens Their Removal - Forbes
- Texas House Issues Arrest Warrants For Democrats Who Left State To Block Congressional Redistricting – Texas Tribune
- Advances In ‘Green Steel’ Production Could Stall Under The Trump Administration – Manufacturing Dive
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Gates Foundation Pledges $2.5 Billion To Women’s Health Initiatives
The Gates Foundation said Monday that it would commit $2.5 billion through 2030 to support dozens of different approaches for improving women’s health, from new medicines to prevent maternal mortality to vaccines to curb infections that disproportionately affect women. The figure represents an increase of about a third in the foundation’s funding for women’s health and maternal health compared to the previous five years.
The Gates Foundation said the goal of the new initiative is to address a long-running deficit in medicine that has disfavored women’s health — to the extent that the “typical” patient described to medical students has traditionally been male. In an article published in the BMJ last week, Ru Cheng, the foundation’s director of women’s health initiatives, said that only 1% of global research and development funding is allocated to women’s health issues outside of oncology, and that between 2013 and 2023, only 8.8% of NIH-funded research focused exclusively on women. While venture capital investment in women’s health grew by 300% between 2018 and 2023, it still accounts for just 2% of health care venture investments.
Industry News
Trade Wars
- Canadian Trade Minister Sees ‘Great Deal Of Common Ground’ With US – The Hill
- Swiss Tensions Run High As Clock Ticks On U.S. Tariff Deadline - CNBC
- How Are World Economies Reacting To Trump Tariffs? – France 24
- From Laos To Brazil, Trump’s Tariffs Leave A Lot Of Losers. But Even The Winners Will Pay A Price - AP
- US Tariffs Put 30,000 South African Jobs At Risk, Officials Say - AP
- EU Will Delay Planned U.S. Tariffs For Six Months To Allow For Trade Talks - CNBC
- WD-40 Shifts Supply Chain To Dodge Tariffs – Supply Chain Dive
- ICC Says Businesses Pause Plans Amid Continued Tariff Uncertainty - PYMNTS
- German Finance Chief Plans to Ask Bessent About Quotas for Steel – Yahoo Finance
- New Trump Tariffs: Early Modelling Shows Most Economies Lose – The US More Than Many – The Conversation
- Turmp’s Trade Deals, A Summary to Date – IndustryWeek
How Tariffs Could Reshape Global Manufacturing Supply Chains
U.S. manufacturers import a variety of products, parts, and raw materials from around the world, and supplemental tariffs levied on these items could affect supply chain strategies as organizations manage costs and potential supply chain shifts. “Economically viable opportunities for reshoring production to the U.S. are likely to be higher-value, complex products with strict quality standards, produced with technologically advanced, higher-capital-intensity processes, and a workforce with higher-level skills,” says Kate Hardin, a managing director with Deloitte Services LP.
Leaders appear focused on potential trade policy impacts for several reasons.
- Six of the top 15 manufactured goods imported by the U.S. are important intermediate inputs for U.S. manufacturing supply chains and operations, including motor vehicle parts, electrical and electronic components, and nonferrous metals (excluding aluminum), according to a Deloitte analysis of International Trade Administration data.
- 77%: share of survey respondents that cited trade uncertainties, including tariffs and trade negotiations, as their top business challenge, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.
- 71%: share of U.S. CEOs that plan to alter their supply chains over the next three to five years, notes an article from The Conference Board.
- 410,000: Number of U.S. manufacturing establishments, up from 334,000 in 2013.
Helion Begins Construction On Orion Fusion Power Plant In Washington
US-based fusion energy company Helion has announced the start of construction on the site of its new fusion power plant, Orion, in Malaga, Washington. The development follows an environmental review process that concluded with a mitigated determination of non-significance (MDNS) under the State Environmental Policy Act. The site in Chelan County is leased from Chelan County Public Utilities District and was selected for its strategic advantages, including transmission access and a history of energy innovation.
Helion’s strategy of rapid iteration and testing has allowed the company to make consistent advancements towards developing a commercial fusion machine. The company’s seventh-generation prototype, Polaris, will be the first to generate electricity from fusion. Previously, with its Trenta prototype, Helion became the first private company to reach a fuel temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius, a milestone typically regarded as essential for the operation of a commercial fusion power plant. In 2023, Helion entered its first power purchase agreement (PPA) to supply energy to Microsoft from the Orion fusion power plant, with Constellation Energy acting as the power marketer. With site works now initiated, Helion is on track to deliver electricity generated by fusion to Microsoft by 2028.
Tesla Approves $24 Billion Stock Award for Elon Musk
Tesla’s board approved a stock award for Chief Executive Elon Musk that it tentatively valued at $23.7 billion, which he can claim in two years unless a court rescues his prior, larger stock-option grant. The electric-vehicle maker said its “interim award” of 96 million shares will vest two years after approval as long as Musk remains on the job as CEO or under another executive title heading product development or operations, according to a securities filing. It described the award as a “first step, good faith payment” to keep Musk engaged.
He won’t receive the new award if the company wins its case before the Delaware Supreme Court, appealing an earlier Chancery Court decision invalidating Musk’s $50 billion 2018 pay package, and Musk is able to exercise stock options awarded in that package. Musk has said that his willingness to run Tesla for the next five years is contingent on his ability to have greater control of the company. In a video interview at the Qatar Economic Forum in May, Musk said he wanted enough voting control that he couldn’t be “ousted by activist investors.”
Foxconn Looks to Build AI Servers at Former Lordstown EV Factory
Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn plans to work with partners to convert a former electric-truck factory in Lordstown NRDE -1.41%decrease; red down pointing triangle, Ohio, into a plant making cloud computing hardware for artificial-intelligence applications, people familiar with the plans said Monday. Once the site of a General Motors car factory, the Lordstown facility was bought by a startup called Lordstown Motors in 2019 to produce electric pickup trucks. The startup made only a handful of trucks before declaring bankruptcy in 2023.
When Lordstown ran into trouble, Foxconn acquired the facility and discussed producing vehicles there in partnership with the startup. The partnership ended in acrimony and Foxconn has now embarked on a different plan. The company has sold the 6.2 million-square-foot plant and the manufacturing equipment in Lordstown for $375 million, but it will continue operating at the site and “expand into new business areas,” it said.
Governor Hochul Announces $46 Million Investment by Garonit Pharmaceutical to Establish Major Manufacturing Facility in New Windsor
Governor Kathy Hochul Monday announced that Garonit Pharmaceutical, Inc., a global manufacturer of antiseptic products and health care solutions, will establish a state-of-the-art, 200,000-square-foot pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in New Windsor, Orange County. With a $46.1 million investment, the facility will become the world’s largest chlorhexidine gluconate manufacturing operation, producing antiseptic products essential for surgical disinfection and infection prevention in hospitals worldwide. Construction is scheduled to begin in Q1 2026, with production operations anticipated to start in January 2027.
Garonit Pharmaceutical was founded in 1994 in Mumbai, India and specializes in antiseptic ingredients and healthcare solutions for medical facilities worldwide. As Garonit expanded globally, it built additional manufacturing capabilities to better serve customers. Today, the company operates manufacturing sites in the United States and India, with additional operations in the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Japan. New York State is supporting this project with $3.8 million, including up to $3.5 million through the Excelsior Jobs Program and a $300,000 Mid-Hudson Regional Economic Development Council capital grant. The project marks a major milestone in New York’s strategy to grow its life sciences sector and expand domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Amazon Autos Adds Used Hyundai Vehicles To Its Online Marketplace
Amazon Autos, the online car buying marketplace of e-commerce giant Amazon, is adding used and certified pre-owned (CPO) Hyundai Motor America vehicles to its platform, the company announced on Monday. Amazon launched the Amazon Autos online marketplace last December in partnership with Hyundai, which allows customers to purchase a new vehicle online and arrange for pickup at a local dealer of their choice. But the online store previously did not offer used vehicles.
Customers will have the option to filter results on Amazon Autos to show either new or used Hyundai vehicles. But all vehicles offered for sale shown will be limited to a 75-mile radius of their location. In addition, all used vehicles sold via Amazon Autos will come with a three-day, 300-mile return policy and a minimum 30-day, 1,000-mile limited warranty. The first online sales of used Hyundai models will be in the Los Angles area, with plans to expand to other U.S. cities in the coming months.
Big Tech's Critical Role in America's National Security Innovation
America’s economic strength and national security depend on maintaining superiority in critical technologies such as AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, and others that are part of the Global Competition and Innovation (GCI) framework. Yet policymakers often overlook the major role leading U.S. technology companies (“Big Tech”) play in driving innovation and supporting national security. Policymakers seeking to rein in or break up these market leaders should consider a more balanced approach that recognizes the crucial role Big Tech firms play in supporting America’s intensifying economic and geopolitical competition with China.
The prevailing policy debates around regulating leading U.S. tech companies must carefully balance safeguarding innovation with ensuring fair competition. Excessively restrictive policies or aggressive efforts to fragment these companies could diminish America's R&D capabilities precisely when the nation most needs robust private-sector investments. While SMEs generate valuable patents and drive agile innovation, they typically lack the resources and scale necessary to advance multiple critical technology domains simultaneously. Therefore, rather than broadly targeting market leaders, policymakers should adopt nuanced, innovation-friendly regulations designed to preserve the substantial efficiency gains from economies of scale, encourage productive collaboration, and maintain incentives for massive R&D investments.
UAlbany, University of Rochester Partner on AI Research to Treat Neurodegenerative Diseases
Governor Kathy Hochul last week announced the first Empire AI supercomputer projects from the University at Albany. Stemming from a partnership between UAlbany’s world-renowned RNA Institute and their partners at the University of Rochester, the newest member of the Governor’s Empire AI Consortium, researchers will now have access to New York State’s Empire AI supercomputer housed at the University at Buffalo. The work will be funded by approximately $230,000 in matching grants from the Muscular Dystrophy Association to UAlbany and UR, along with more than $2 million from the National Institutes of Health and U.S. Department of Defense.
The UAlbany work is the latest in a series of research projects that are up and running at the first “Alpha” phase of the Empire AI computing center. UAlbany researchers will work with UR colleagues to use computer vision and AI to analyze the recorded movements of patients with neuromuscular diseases like myotonic dystrophy (DM), the most common form of adult-onset muscular dystrophy. Researchers hope to use the Empire AI system to develop innovative treatments for neurodegenerative diseases like DM, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig's disease, and spinocerebellar ataxias.