Member Briefing August 7, 2025
Census Bureau: New Orders For Manufactured Goods Decreased 4.8% In June Up 3.8% Year on Year
New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in June as commercial aircraft orders plunged, reversing the surge in plane orders that had driven the overall upswing in orders in the prior month. Factory orders tumbled 4.8% after an upwardly revised 8.3% increase in May, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would decline 4.8% after a previously reported 8.2% jump in May. Orders were up 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in June.
- Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased $2.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $602.4 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent May increase.
- Unfilled orders, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $14.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $1,469.9 billion. This followed a 3.4 percent May increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 7.03, up from 6.98 in May.
- Inventories, up eight of the last nine months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $945.6 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent May increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.57, unchanged from May.
Read more at The Census Department
Reciprocal Tariffs Kicked In Today – Live Updates
Trump's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs hit US trade partners on Thursday when his deadline to strike deals expired at 12:01 a.m ET. President Trump took to Truth Social on Thursday boasting that billions of dollars in tariffs were now flowing into the US. "IT’S MIDNIGHT!!! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ARE NOW FLOWING INTO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!" Trump wrote.
The US president added that this additional money will come "largely from countries" that he says has taken "advantage" of the US. As the trade deadline loomed Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil. The new tariff, which will come into effect in 21 days, is set to "stack" on top of an existing country-specific tariff of 25%, which takes effect today.
Wells Fargo July CPI Preview: Summer Sizzle
The July Consumer Price Index will bring further signs of higher tariffs pushing up prices. Wells Fargo economists estimate the core CPI rose 0.3% in July. This would mark the strongest gain in six months and push the year-ago rate back up to 3.0%, as firming goods inflation is no longer being offset by the softening in services. Headline inflation is expected to rise a more modest 0.2% in July due to a drop in gasoline prices and slightly tamer food inflation. If realized, the year-ago rate in the headline CPI would hold steady at 2.7%—a touch stronger than in the spring but lower than the start of the year.
It is still early in the price adjustment process to see how higher import taxes will ultimately be distributed between the end-customer, domestic sellers and foreign exporters. At the same time, growing consumer fatigue is making it more difficult to raise prices in general. Wells Fargo economists continue to expect inflation to pick up, but not ratchet higher, over the second half of the year, with both the core CPI and core PCE deflator returning to around 3% in the fourth quarter.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Netanyahu To Propose Full Reoccupation Of Gaza, Israeli Media Report – BBC
- Israeli Military Chief Warns Against Takeover Of Gaza - CNN
- Iran Says Spy Executed for Passing Nuclear Secrets to Mossad - Newsweek
- Dozens Killed Seeking Aid In Gaza As Israel Considers Further Military Action - AP
- World Leaders Condemn Videos Of Emaciated Israeli Hostages In Gaza As Red Cross Calls For Access - BBC
- Survivors Of Israel's Pager Attack On Hezbollah Struggle To Recover - AP
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Kremlin Says Putin-Trump Meeting Agreed, Will Happen In 'Coming Days' - NBC
- Trump Envoy Witkoff Meets Putin Ahead Of Russia-Ukraine Peace Deadline – AP
- Russia’s Summer Offensive Is Turning Into An Escalating Crisis For Ukraine - CNN
- Countries Pledge Millions To Fund US Weapons For Ukraine - Politico
- Kremlin Says US-Russia Talks Were 'Constructive' As Ceasefire Deadline Looms - BBC
- Kyiv Confirms Top Economic Watchdog In New Reversal - Politico
- Ukrainians' Trust In Zelenskiy Dips After Wartime Protests, Pollster Finds - Reuters
- Russia Hit Again by Strong Earthquake - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Italy Gets Final Approval For €13.5B Sicily Bridge Project – Reuters
- New Polish President Begins His Term Clashing With PM Donald Tusk - Politico
- Hiroshima Survivors Fear Rising Nuclear Threat On The 80th Anniversary Of Atomic Bombing - AP
- Spain Scraps Plans To Buy F-35 Fighter Jets - Politico
- Brazilian Justice Eases Bolsonaro’s House Arrest To Allow Unrestricted Family Visits - AP
- New Virus Outbreak In China: What To Know About The Chikungunya Virus - Forbes
- US To Deploy New, Shorter-Range Missile System For Japan Drill – Nikkei Asia
Policy and Politics
OpenAI is giving ChatGPT to the government for $1
OpenAI on Wednesday announced it will offer its ChatGPT Enterprise product to U.S. federal agencies for $1 through the next year, making its technology available to the federal executive branch workforce at “essentially no cost.” OpenAI said participating agencies will get access to its frontier models through ChatGPT Enterprise, and it will also offer access to features like Advanced Voice Mode for an additional 60-day period. The company has partnered with the U.S. General Services Administration to launch the initiative.
“Helping government work better – making services faster, easier, and more reliable—is a key way to bring the benefits of AI to everyone,” OpenAI said in a blog post. In June, OpenAI launched a new offering called OpenAI for Government and said it was awarded a contract of up to $200 million by the U.S. Department of Defense.
Nations Gather In Geneva To Again Confront The World’s Spiraling Plastic Pollution Crisis
Nations kicked off a meeting on Tuesday to try to complete a landmark treaty aimed at ending the plastic pollution crisis that affects every ecosystem and person on the planet. It’s the sixth time negotiators are meeting and they hope the last. A key split is whether the treaty should require cutting plastic production, with powerful oil-producing nations opposed; most plastic is made from fossil fuels. They say redesign, recycling and reuse can solve the problem, while other countries and some major companies say that’s not enough.
About 300 businesses that are members of the Business Coalition for a Global Plastics Treaty — companies such as Walmart, the Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, and L’Oréal — support reducing production along with increasing recycling and reuse. The coalition includes major food and beverage companies and retailers who want an effective, binding treaty with global rules to spare them the headaches of differing approaches in different countries. The U.S. doesn’t support global production caps or bans on certain plastic products or chemical additives to them.
Pentagon Seeks To Slash Red Tape For Mass Drone Production
The Trump administration is slashing red tape to quickly equip troops with more small, easily replaced drones in a bid to keep up with the likes of Russia and China, the Pentagon’s chief technology officer told NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer in an exclusive interview. Emil Michael, the undersecretary of Defense for research and engineering, said the U.S. is speedily moving to reduce bureaucratic barriers and expand the quantities and types of drones U.S. troops can use to defend American bases, forces and interests.
The United States is currently outpaced by Russia and China in military drone use, a gap caused by a dearth in companies approved to make drones for the U.S. military as well as limited equipment and expertise needed to mass-produce drones, according to a report released Tuesday by The Heritage Foundation. Only 14 companies currently can make drones for the Defense Department, while just one Chinese company, DJI, accounts for 70 percent of all worldwide drone sales and makes millions of drones each year, putting Washington at a disadvantage. U.S. law bars the military from buying Chinese drones
Political Headlines
- Federal Reserve Governor Kugler Steps Down, Giving Trump Slot To Fill – AP
- Thune’s bid to change rules for nominees faces GOP opposition – The Hill
- UCLA Has More Than Half A Billion Dollars In Funding Suspended By Trump Administration - Politico
- Good Government Groups Fire Back At Hochul Over Redistricting After She Tells Them 'Politics Is A Political Process' – NY State Of Politics
- Democrats See Political Upside—and Risks—in Epstein Files - WSJ
- NYSERDA CEO Says New York Likely To Fall Short Of Climate Goals - Spectrum
- Are ‘Pocket Rescissions’ Legal? Congressional Watchdog Says ‘No’ – The Hill
- Government Data Is Under Fire, but It Makes the World Go ‘Round - WSJ
- Furious Voters Are Flooding Lawmakers’ Town Halls. Republicans Aren’t Worried. - Politico
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
HHS Slashes Funding For mRNA Vaccine Development
US Health and Human Services is “winding down” its mRNA vaccine development and will instead fund other vaccine platforms through the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, the agency said Tuesday. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a statement that BARDA would terminate 22 mRNA vaccine development investments, suggesting the vaccines “fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like Covid and flu,” despite evidence they protect against severe disease and death from Covid-19 and show promise against influenza. HHS said some final stage contracts will continue, but “no new mRNA-based projects will be initiated.”
Messenger RNA is a single strand of the genetic code that cells can “read” and use to make a protein. With the Covid vaccine, mRNA instructs cells in the body to make the particular piece of the virus’s spike protein. When the immune system sees it, it recognizes it as foreign and is then prepared to attack when there is an actual infection. HHS said it is canceling BARDA’s award to Moderna/UTMB for an mRNA vaccine for H5N1, known as avian flu. It is also terminating contracts with Emory University and Tiba Biotech. Emory has been working on a dry powder mRNA antiviral platform that could be inhaled and Tiba is working on a platform that uses a nanoparticle carrier technology, according to the BARDA website. HHS also said it is “de-scoping” mRNA-related work in contracts it has with Luminary Labs, ModeX, and Sequirus.
Industry News
Trade Wars
- U.S. Trading Partners Race to Secure Exemptions From Trump’s Tariffs - WSJ
- Mapping Trump’s Tariffs By Trade Balance And Geography – Supply Chain Dive
- Trump To Put Additional 25% Import Taxes On India, Bringing Combined Tariffs To 50% - AP
- Missed Signals, Lost Deal: How India-US Trade Talks Collapsed - Reuters
- End of De Minimis Alarms E-Commerce Sellers, Consumers - WSJ
- Switzerland Is In A Uniquely Difficult Position When It Comes To Tariffs. Here’s Why - CNBC
- ‘Less Bad’ US Trade Deal Is Simply Best The EU Could Get - Politico
- Trump Tariffs Cost Small Canadian Firms As Big Business, Oil Enjoy Exemptions - Reuters
- Aluminum Fee Dings Molson Coors - WSJ
- Trump’s Trade Deals, A Summary to Date – IndustryWeek
Apple To Invest Further $100bn In US
Apple CEO Tim Cook joined President Donald Trump on Wednesday to announce a new $100 billion investment commitment by the tech giant in the U.S. The announcement in the Oval Office included Apple’s commitment to a new “American Manufacturing Program,” a White House official confirmed to CNBC. With the new pledge, Apple’s total investment in the U.S. over the next four years now totals $600 billion, the official said.
Most of Apple’s flagship iPhones have been manufactured in China, though the company is moving some of its production to India. The announcement comes as Trump has pushed Apple to make its products in America — a feat that experts say would jack up prices by hundreds of dollars, if it can even be done at all.
The Tariff Effect So Far: Billions in Revenue but No Economic Earthquake
In recent months, the president pledged that a new tariff regime would slash the trade deficit and force manufacturers to move production back to the U.S. His detractors warned that the tariffs would spark sharp inflation and even shortages in stores as soon as this summer. Six months into the experiment, with more tariff announcements likely in the coming days, the economy hasn’t crashed. Inflation has ticked up but not soared. Consumers aren’t finding empty shelves.
Some of Trump’s pledges aren’t materializing. Companies aren’t broadly rushing to reshore, partly because the chaotic and ever-changing tariff policy has paralyzed decision-making. Some economists say it is also because the tariffs aren’t steep enough to force many types of manufacturing to relocate to the U.S. Trump’s actions so far have raised the effective average tariff rate on all imported goods to roughly 18%, from 2.3% last year. Those are the highest levels since the 1930s. “The tariffs, while high, often aren’t high enough to offset a still strong dollar that makes it expensive to produce in the U.S.,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former economic and trade official in the Biden and Obama administrations.
Honda Forecasts Drop In Profits Despite Strong US Auto Sales
Honda’s profit in the last quarter was half of what it was a year earlier, the company said Wednesday, as automakers were hit by 25% tariffs on vehicle exports to the United States. The Japanese automaker reported Wednesday that its April-June profit totaled 196.7 billion yen ($1.3 billion), about half of what it earned during the same period the previous year at 394.7 billion yen. Quarterly sales edged 1.2% lower to 5.3 trillion yen ($36 billion). The company’s auto sales declined year-on-year in Japan, the rest of Asia and Europe. Honda’s quarterly global auto sales totaled 839,000 units, down from 869,000 the same period last year.
The Tokyo-based maker of the Accord sedan and Asimo robot revised upward its profit forecast for the full fiscal year through March 2026 to 420 billion yen ($2.9 billion), better than its earlier estimate of 250 billion yen. The improved projection still marks a 50% drop from the previous year’s results. Honda stuck to its forecast to sell 3.62 million vehicles worldwide in this fiscal year.
AMD Earnings Suggest A Big Problem On Its Hands
AMD's latest financial results were solid, given that the company beat analysts' estimates on the top line. But the beat wasn't because of surging AI demand at Nvidia's expense. Instead, it was because of good old-fashioned CPU server demand and GPU sales for gaming. That poses a big problem for the company and its investors, given shareholders have been arguing for a year that the real reason to buy AMD isn't because of its legacy chips, but its next-gen chips designed to accelerate artificial intelligence training and inference.
Second-quarter revenue clocked in at $7.68 billion, up 32% from last year and better than Wall Street analysts' prediction of $7.43 billion. However, its operating margin was just 12% versus 22% one year ago. As a result, net income was $781 million, down 31% year over year. EPS was 48 cents, matching analyst estimates, but down from 69 cents the year prior. The company said that data center sales, including MI300 series chips used in AI training and inference, a massive market that has fueled tremendous sales and profit for Nvidia, came up short.
Shipping Rates Dive As China-US Front-Loading Tapers Off
sia-U.S. sea freight rates are set to drop further in 2025 as shipping capacity outpaces demand and trade routes shift due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, though vessel rerouting is expected to limit some losses, industry experts said. Average spot rates for containers from Asia to the U.S. west and east coasts have slumped by 58% and 46%, respectively, since June 1 and are expected to fall further, according to shipping analytics firm Xeneta.
Sea freight saw a brief uptick in late May and early June as shippers took advantage of a 90-day pause in U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, but rates quickly fell as capacity outweighed demand, Xeneta data showed. “There is significant overcapacity globally and this will continue to shape the market," said Erik Devetak, Xeneta's chief technology and data officer.
Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Weight-Loss Drug Sales Surge Despite Copycat Issues
Novo Nordisk said second-quarter sales of its blockbuster Wegovy weight-loss drug soared 67% on year, despite waves of U.S. patients using generic unbranded versions of the drug. The Danish company last week slashed full-year guidance, warning that copycat versions of its obesity and diabetes drugs in the U.S. were holding back sales of its branded treatments. Its share price plummeted on the news. Compounding pharmacies in the U.S. have been producing lower-cost generic versions of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy drugs, a practice the U.S. Food & Drug Administration allows while supplies of authentic treatments are in short supply. Second-quarter Wegovy sales rose to 19.53 billion Danish kroner, equivalent to $3.03 billion, from 11.66 billion kroner in the same quarter last year. Sales of Ozempic rose to 31.8 billion kroner from 28.88 billion kroner.
Semaglutide–which is marketed as Wegovy for weight-loss and Ozempic for diabetes–had been in short supply as the company raced to increase production and meet surging demand. But the drug came off the shortage list earlier this year and the FDA had told anyone distributing copies of the injections that they must stop by the end of May. Novo Nordisk said the generic versions are still being produced in vast quantities and estimates that around 1 million Americans are currently still using the compounded versions.
Sticking To It - Scotch Celebrates 100 Years
Scotch™ Brand marks its 100th anniversary this year, celebrating a legacy of breakthrough innovation that began in 1925 with the creation of Scotch Masking Tape, originally designed to help auto-body painters detail cars without damaging existing paint jobs. Over the past century, the brand has grown into a trusted global partner across nearly every industry, now offering a portfolio of more than 600 adhesives, sealants, and fillers.
From the original masking tape to today’s advanced adhesive technologies, Scotch Brand continues to solve challenges across industrial, automotive, electrical, and professional painting applications. Since inventing the first masking tape in 1925, Scotch™ Brand and 3M have developed more than 1,000 varieties of adhesive tape and countless other products—from spray adhesives and super glue to tape dispensers and laminators.
Read more at Assembly Magazine
Joby, L3Harris to Develop Hybrid VTOL Military Aircraft
Electric air taxi maker Joby Aviation and defense contractor L3Harris Technologies are collaborating to develop a hybrid vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft for defense operations. The gas-powered VTOL plane is designed to fly low-altitude missions with the option to be piloted by a crew or operated autonomously, according to the press release. Joby is also developing a gas-powered hybrid powertrain for its S4 aircraft platform. The news comes as the company ramps up aircraft production at its facilities in California and Ohio.
The collaboration will combine Joby’s existing commercial aircraft development program and manufacturing capabilities with L3Harris’ mission-specific surveillance and weapon platforms, including sensors, effectors and communication, the companies said. Flight testing is set to begin in the fall and the companies plan to perform demonstrations during government exercises in 2026.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive