Member Briefing December 18, 2023
Empire Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declined in New York State
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the December survey. The general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5, continuing to oscillate around -8.6—the average observed over the past year.
- The new orders fell six points to -11.3, pointing to a decline in orders for a third consecutive month, and the shipments index fell sixteen points to -6.4, indicating that shipments fell.
- The unfilled orders index held steady at -24.0, a sign that unfilled orders continued to fall significantly.
- After rising into positive territory last month, the inventories index retreated fourteen points to -5.2, suggesting that inventories moved lower.
- The delivery times index dropped ten points to -15.6, its lowest reading in several years, a sign that delivery times shortened.
- The index for number of employees fell four points to -8.4, its lowest level in several months, pointing to a modest decline in employment levels.
- The average workweek index was little changed at -2.4, indicating a slight decline in hours worked.
- The prices paid index moved down six points to 16.7, suggesting an ongoing moderation in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 11.5, a sign that selling price increases remained modest.
- Looking ahead new orders and shipments, as well as employment, are expected to increase only modestly over the next six months.
- The capital spending index remained depressed at 4.2, suggesting that firms’ investment plans remained weak.
War in Israel Headlines
- Israel and Hamas: The Latest News – The Guardian
- IDF Claims it Has Discovered ‘Biggest Hamas Tunnel’ in Gaza - CNN
- U.S. Says its Destroyer Shot Down 14 Drones in Red Sea Launched from Yemen - Yahoo
- Houthis Launch More Drone Attacks as Shipping Companies Suspend Red Sea Operations - NPR
- Israeli Troops Accidentally Kill Three Hostages: Live Updates - NYT
- Israel and Qatar Explore Revival of Deal for Gaza Hostages -WSJ
- Hamas Turns Gaza Streets Into Deadly Maze for Israeli Troops – Reuters
- Experts Note Israel's So-Called 'Dumb Bombs' Can Be Used With Precision - ABC
- Israel Tells U.S. its Current Phase of Heavy Fighting Likely to Finish in 2-3 Weeks, Two Officials Say - CBS
- Israel is Using an AI System to Find Targets in Gaza. Experts Say it's Just the Start - NPR
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation in Gaza – Institute for the Study of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack on Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
War in Ukraine Headlines
- Ukraine and Russia: The Latest News – The Guardian
- Putin Says Russia Wants to Reach Agreement on Return of WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich - WSJ
- ‘Exceptionally Heavy Losses’ As Russia’s Newest Airborne Division Attacks Ukraine’s Dnipro Bridgehead – Forbes
- Orban Says No to EU Accession Talks for Ukraine Ahead of Summit Showdown - Reuters
- Russia Shoots Down 35 Ukrainian Drones as Both Sides Step Up Attacks - Insider
- E.U. Accession Talks Lift Morale in Ukraine - NYT
- Ukrainian Marines on 'Suicide Mission' in Crossing the Dnipro River - Insider
- Abramovich Pledged $3 Billion for Ukraine War Victims. The Money Is Frozen in the U.K. - WSJ
- Putin Apologizes for the Price of Eggs as Russian Inflation Soars - Insider
- Ukraine Grenade Incident: Councillor Tosses Explosives Into Meeting - BBC
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine – Institute for the Study of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Auto-Strike Deal Boosts US Industrial Production, But Other Manufacturers Struggle
Industrial production rebounded in November and rose 0.2% after a major auto strike ended, but most other manufacturers saw little improvement. Auto output jumped 7.1%, the Federal Reserve said, after plunging in the prior month due to the United Auto workers’ strike. Defense orders continued to trend higher, rising 1.2%. That’s the 11th consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing production fell 0.2% excluding the auto sector, however.
Capacity utilization edged up 0.1 points to 78.8%, the Fed said. The number reflects how much of a plant is used to make things. The current level is about 1 point below the historic average. The industrial side of the economy has been in a slump for most of the past year. Higher interest rates and shifting consumer spending toward services have reduced the demand for big-ticket items. Heavy industry is unlikely to improve much until interest rates come down and the economy picks up steam. That could take a while.
U.S. Jobs Market Cools Again, Conference Board Employment Trends Index Shows
The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index fell to 113.05 from a downwardly revised 113.09 in October, the private-research group said Monday. The index has been falling steadily since reaching a peak in spring last year. Most new jobs over the last six months have been added in the major sectors of government and services like healthcare, and leisure and hospitality, Eren said. Other industries have seen flat growth or have lost jobs, he said.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment that aggregates eight indicators. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, while turning points in the index suggest a change in the number of jobs is likely to occur in the short term. Employees working in temporary posts, an early indicator for hiring in other industries, continued to decline in November. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, meanwhile, rose again over the month. More jobseekers reported that jobs were hard to find, and fewer employers reported difficulties in finding staff.
COVID 19 News – Evidence Suggest Growing JN.1 Variant is More Transmissible But Not More Deadly
Scientists are narrowing in on the fastest-growing COVID-19 variant, learning more about the strain that has coincided with a rise in cases as Americans head into the holidays.The JN.1 variant now accounts for more than one-fifth of all cases, based on estimates Friday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the CDC's latest Nowcast reporting period, cases involving this mutation make up between 15% and 29% of COVID infections. The variant previously accounted for an estimated 8% of cases.
This uptick suggests that JN.1 could be more transmissible and better at slipping past people’s immune systems, the CDC said. Hospitalizations and deaths, indicators for COVID-19 spread, also remain elevated, with cases rising in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. This follows a pattern of respiratory illnesses increasing in winter months with people indoors and visiting friends and family for the holidays. There is no evidence that JN.1 causes more serious illness compared with other circulating variants. The latest COVID-19 vaccine and treatments are expected to work against JN.1.
NYS COVID Update
The Governor updated COVID data for the week ending December 15th.
Deaths:
- Weekly: 74
- Total Reported to CDC: 81,346
Hospitalizations:
- Average Daily Patients in Hospital statewide: 1,840
- Average Daily Patients in ICU Statewide: No Data
7 Day Average Cases per 100K population
- 16.6 positive cases per 100,00 population, Statewide
- 17.8 positive cases per 100,00 population, Mid-Hudson
Useful Websites:
Hochul State of the State and Budget Expected to Present Roadmap to Focus on Mental Health Care, Medicaid Spending and Public Safety
Gov. Kathy Hochul’s top aides are deciding what will make it into her grand State of the State address and budget proposal set for January. Usually, the plan includes big ideas and promises, such as last year’s failed bid to get a sweeping housing plan across the finish line. With past setbacks in mind, sources told NY1 Hochul is expected to present a new roadmap to New Yorkers focused on mental health care, reigning in Medicaid spending and improving public safety. But she’s already appeared to back away from the key issue that deals to create more affordable housing across the state.
New York governors are typically the most powerful between January and March, while negotiating the state budget that is due April 1. Past governors have used the budget to gain leverage on policies that aren’t strictly financial, like bail reform. But right now, the legislature is stronger than ever because Democrats hold so-called super majorities, meaning they have enough votes to override and reverse a veto from the governor.
Schumer Delays Holiday Break, Pressing for Border Deal to Unlock Ukraine Aid
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Thursday that the chamber will continue to work next week to allow more time for bipartisan talks in the hope of reaching a deal to pass an emergency aid package with assistance for Ukraine, Israel and other priorities – and said the Senate will vote on an aid proposal next week “no matter what.” Republicans have insisted that an aid package must be paired with major border security policy changes. Negotiations are ongoing, but a deal has not yet been reached.
A number of lawmakers continue to express skepticism that a deal can be reached as early as next week. In addition, the House took its last scheduled votes for the year earlier on Thursday and has now adjourned. Any deal reached in the Senate, which Democrats control by a 51-49 majority, would also need to win the approval of the House, which Republicans control 221-213, before passing into law. House lawmakers left Washington as scheduled on Thursday to begin their holiday recess.
House Sends Annual Defense Authorization Bill to Biden’s Desk
The House passed the annual Defense authorization bill Thursday, sending the $886 billion Pentagon policy and funding package to President Biden’s desk. The vote was 310-118, with 45 Democrats and 73 Republicans opposing the measure. The House passed the legislation under a suspension of the rules, which means it needed a two-thirds majority. House and Senate negotiators released the compromise version of the NDAA last week, stripping out a ban on the Defense Department’s abortion policy and a prohibition on Pentagon funding for gender-affirming care opposed by conservatives.
Conservative lawmakers also opposed the inclusion in the NDAA of an extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) through April 19. The FISA extension also drew some protests in the Senate, but the provision was ultimately left in the bill. The Defense bill also provides $11.5 billion to deter China in the Indo-Pacific region and another $800 million to support Ukraine against a Russian invasion.
SUNY New Paltz Engineering Launches 2023 Virtual Engineering Project Review
The Division of Engineering Programs invites you to view the projects and prototypes of their Senior Design I students. Enjoy the video presentations and provide your valuable professional feedback in the comments section. Your feedback will help the students as they prepare to present their final Senior Design projects at the Annual Engineering Design EXPO May 3, 2024. Be sure to save the date for the EXPO!
The school thanks their EXPO Sponsors (Council members ELNA Magnetics and Central Hudson) and invites more firms to become sponsors.
Click here to become an EXPO sponsor
US Retail Sales Pick Up Unexpectedly In November
Retail sales in the United States rose unexpectedly last month, according to government data released Thursday, with consumer spending holding up in the face of higher interest rates. US consumption has been more resilient than anticipated even as the central bank embarked on an aggressive campaign to ease demand and rein in inflation by hiking rates rapidly. But with inflation coming down, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the end of its latest meeting on Wednesday as policymakers assessed the state of the economy.
Compared with the same period a year ago, retail sales were 4.1 percent higher, according to the Commerce Department report. Sales at gasoline stations slipped 2.9 percent from October to November, likely on the back of lower gas prices, while those at electronics and appliances stores dropped 1.1 percent as well. There is "no sign of an imminent collapse in consumption," according to economist Kieran Clancy of Pantheon Macroeconomics. But areas like auto sales are seeing a slowing trend as higher financing costs weigh on purchases, he noted. Pantheon said in an earlier report that auto sales have "been more or less flat since the start of this year."
New OSHA Reporting Rule Targeting Certain Employers - Including Many Manufacturers - Set to Take Effect
Most employers are generally familiar with the longstanding concept of “recordkeeping” and OSHA “recordables” that a business must record and log for any triggering injuries and illnesses during any given year under OSHA 300, 300A, and 301 recordkeeping requirements. Under the new OSHA regulation, however, not only will certain employers be required to submit the OSHA Form 300A Summary of Work-Related Injuries and Illnesses annually, but also business establishments with 100 or more employees in designated industries are also required to submit case-specific information from the OSHA Form 300 Log and the OSHA Form 301 Incident Report.
A list of the high-hazard industries subject to the new requirement can be found at OSHA’s injury reporting website, known as the Injury Tracking Application, and include:
- NAICS 3119: Other Food Manufacturing.
- NAICS 3121: Beverage Manufacturing.
- NAICS 3261: Plastics Product Manufacturing.
- NAICS 3262: Rubber Product Manufacturing.
- NAICS 3272: Glass and Glass Product Manufacturing.
- NAICS 3273: Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing.
- NAICS 3361: Motor Vehicle Manufacturing.
OSHA’s website contains several sets of FAQs and a fact sheet. The due date to submit the information is March 2, 2024.
Adverse Trend Continues for Machine Tool Demand
U.S. machine shops’ and other manufacturers’ new orders for capital equipment increased to $409.7 million during October, up 4.0% from September, though the new result is a -10.6% drop from the October 2022 total. More concerning is that the 10-month total value for new orders is now $4.05 billion, -13.5% less than last year’s comparable 10-month result. The figures are provided by AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology in its latest U.S. Technology Orders Report.
Manufacturers of household and major appliance manufacturers made their largest investment since September 2018. Manufacturers of power transmission equipment – engines, turbines, and other parts – continued to post strong rates of investment during October, with orders 8.0% now ahead of the 2022 rate. “This sector is benefiting from recent government investment, pushing orders of manufacturing technology to levels not seen since the industry was transitioning from coal-fired plants to natural gas,” according to AMT.
Read more at American Machinist
Global EV Sales Hit New Record in November
Global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) rose 20% versus a year ago as strong growth in North America and China offset lower sales in Europe, according to market research firm Rho Motion. Sales of BEVs and PHEVs hit a fresh monthly record of 1.4 million units, up from 1.1 million in November 2022. "Sales have continued to rise despite a lot of negative sentiment in the market and we're expecting sales to remain strong in December," data manager Charles Lester told Reuters.
Globally, BEVs made up 70% of sales and PHEVs made up the remaining 30% in November, Rho Motion said. China posted a 25% increase in sales and were up 43% in the United States and Canada, while Europe saw sales drop 3% versus the same month in 2022. The drop in Europe reflects a strong end of the year in 2022 as Germans bought electric cars before a reduction in government subsidies kicked in, Rho Motion said.
Leasing Group Orders 140 Jets Worth $18 Billion
Avolon, one of the world’s largest aircraft leasing groups, booked an estimated $18-billion worth of new narrow-body jets – 100 Airbus A321neo jets and 40 Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft. Deliveries will be scheduled through 2032, and the new capacity will boost Avolon’s total fleet under lease to 1,037 aircraft. The two orders reconfirm the overall bullish long-range outlook for expansion in the commercial aerospace sector, with growing demand for newer and more fuel-efficient aircraft.
The order for 40 Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft, worth about $4.9 billion according to list prices, will expand the lessor’s pool of MAX jets to 140 aircraft, of all three variants, including eight that have been delivered to date. “We have now committed to 80 new, fuel-efficient 737 MAX airplanes this year, supporting the transformation of our fleet to lower-emissions airplanes. Avolon has been a long-standing supporter of the 737 MAX platform, delivering the 1,000th 737 MAX produced earlier this year and the first-ever 737 MAX in 2017. It is a pleasure to partner again with Boeing on this new order." Avolon CEO Andy Cronin said.
Read more at American Machinist
More Older Americans are Working, Earning Higher Wages
About one in five U.S. adults 65 and older were employed in 2023, almost twice the share that worked in 1987, according to a recently released Pew Research Center report. The report, released Thursday, also found that the older workforce has grown more racially and ethnically diverse, and that women comprise a larger share of older workers. In 2023, women made up 46 percent of all workers 65 and older, up from 40 percent in 1987.
The share of workers in that age group who are white has declined over the same period, falling from 92 percent in 1987 to 75 percent in 2023. Older workers have also started to earn more in recent years. The typical worker who is 65 or older earned $22 an hour in 2022, according to the report. Meanwhile, older workers earned an average of $13 an hour in 1987.
Lamborghini Introduces Four-Day Week for Production Workers
Lamborghini has reached a deal with unions to introduce a four-day week for its production workers, the labour associations and the company said on Tuesday, as more manufacturing groups re-consider the structure of the work week for their employees. The FIOM and FIM-CISL unions said the agreement is "historical" as it is the first in the automotive industry in Europe to achieve a significant reduction in working hours without cutting wages, but rather increasing them.
"Work less and work better, this is the principle that guided this negotiation, and which is part of a comprehensive reasoning," a statement from FIOM and FIM-CISL said. Production workers on a rotating two-shift schedule will alternate a five-day week with a four-day week, overall cutting 22 days of work each year, the unions said. Those on a three-shift rota, which includes night shifts too, will have a five-day week alternated with two four-day weeks, cutting their yearly working days by 31.
Legislators Urge Hochul to Nix Plan for Iroquois Natural Gas Pipeline Improvements
Fifty New York legislators signed a letter delivered to Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday demanding that she stop the Iroquois Pipeline Operating Company from boosting the capacity of its 30-year-old fracked gas pipeline, which runs from Canada to New York City. The expansion is the latest fossil-fueled infrastructure project to earn the ire of local environmental groups, who say such investments are at odds with the goals of New York’s Climate Leadership and Protection Act. Passed in the summer of 2019, the law sets benchmarks for the state to reduce 85 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2050.
The expansion project will enhance four of the pipelines’ compressor stations—which help push the flow of gas through its pipes—and increase the fossil fuel’s supply to the Big Apple by November 2025. In total, the project aims to add 125 million cubic feet per day of natural gas to its existing infrastructure, to be distributed by utilities like National Grid and Con Edison.
Global Demand For Dirtiest Fossil Fuel Reportedly Hit All-Time High In 2023
In its Coal 2023 report, the IEA projected that demand for coal rose to 8.54 billion tons, up 1.4% compared to last year—largely fueled by an 8% rise in usage in India and 5% in China in response to increased demand for electricity and “low hydropower output.” By the end of 2023, the biggest decline in coal consumption is expected to take place in the U.S. and the European Union—with an estimated drop of 20%—while other advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, Canada and Australia report smaller declines.
The IEA said it expects global coal demand to “drop in 2024 and plateau through 2026,” even if governments don’t implement strong climate or clean energy policies—with the total consumption in 2026 being 2.3% than this year. The report notes that China—the world’s largest consumer, producer and importer of coal—will be key to these projections as it turns to coal power generation when hydroelectricity fails. Chinese coal usage is expected to fall next year as hydro power recovers, although India and other emerging economies are likely to continue heavily relying on the dirtiest fossil fuel to meet their power generation needs.