Member Briefing February 13, 2025
CPI = 3.0%. Inflation Higher Than Expected In January
The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs in goods and services across the U.S. economy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. They were higher than the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than December. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, CPI rose 0.4% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.3%. That compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.1%. The annual core rate also was up 0.1 percentage point from December.
- Shelter costs continued to be a problem for inflation, rising 0.4% on the month and accounting for about 30% of the entire increase.
- Food prices jumped 0.4%, pushed by a 15.2% surge in egg prices related to ongoing problems with avian bird flu that have forced farmers to destroy millions of chickens.
- New vehicle prices were flat, but used cars and trucks saw a 2.2% increase.
- Motor vehicle insurance was up 2%, pushing the annual increase to 11.8%.
- Energy prices climbed 1.1% as gasoline prices rose 1.8%.
- The jump in prices ate into worker paychecks, as the CPI increase entirely offset the 0.5% move higher in average hourly earnings.
940 Million Flowers Being Shipped Through Miami For Valentine's Day
In the run up to Feb. 14, agricultural specialists at Miami International Airport have processed about 940 million stems of cut flowers, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Around 90% of the fresh cut flowers being sold for Valentine's Day in the United States come through Miami, while the other 10% pass through Los Angeles. Roses, carnations, pompons, hydrangeas, chrysanthemums and gypsophila arrive on hundreds of flights, mostly from Colombia and Ecuador, to Miami on their journey to florists and supermarkets across the U.S. and Canada.
Miami's largest flower importer is Avianca Cargo, based in Medellín, Colombia. In the past three weeks, the company has transported about 18,000 tons of flowers on 300 full cargo flights, senior vice president Diogo Elias said during a news conference last week in Miami.
10-Year Treasury Yield Shoots Above 4.6% After Hot CPI Report
U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Wednesday as investors reacted to the hotter-than-expected January consumer inflation report. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points at 4.627%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 7 basis points to 4.363%. The hot inflation report could push expectations of the next Federal Reserve rate cut further into the future. The Federal Open Market Committee chose to keep rates unchanged last month after cutting in the previous three meetings.
“Today’s stronger than expected CPI release is likely to further cement the FOMC’s cautious approach to easing,” Whitney Watson, global co-head and co-chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions within Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a statement. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared before the Senate Banking Committee, and said the central bank “doesn’t need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates further.
Global Headlines
Middle East
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Israel Sees Opening for Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, U.S. Intelligence Finds - WSJ
- Israel Says Gaza Ceasefire Will End If Hamas Does Not Free Hostages By Saturday – BBC
- Israeli Military Calls Up Reservists As Concern Over Gaza Ceasefire Mounts - Reuters
- U.N. Suspends Humanitarian Work in Yemeni Area After Houthis Detain More Staff - NYT
- Jailed Iranian Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi Says 'Determined To Continue Fighting' – France 24
- Israel Fears For Condition Of Remaining Hostages, As Intel Suggests Male Captives Treated Worse Than Women - CNN
- Syria’s Interim Foreign Minister Says Russia-Iran Ties To Assad Are An Open Wound After War – The Hill
- Arab League Chief Rejects Trump Plan To Displace Palestinians From Gaza - VOA
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Trump Speaks With Putin, Says Negotiations To End War In Ukraine Will Begin ‘Immediately’ – Politico
- Zelensky Warns Putin Is Not ‘Preparing For Peace’—Russia Strikes Kyiv After Trump Talks Progress On Ending Ukraine War - Forbes
- Russia Blames Ukraine For Disrupting IAEA Rotation At Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant - Reuters
- Rubio Heads To Munich Amid Diplomatic Push For Ukraine Peace Deal - VOA
- Russian Defense Spending Overtakes Europe, Study Finds - Politico
- Hegseth Says Return To Ukraine's 2014 Borders 'Unrealistic' - BBC
- American Detainee Marc Fogel Arrives in U.S. Following Release From Russian Custody - Newsweek
- Russian Bitcoin Exchange Co-Founder to Be Freed in Deal for American’s Release - WSJ
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- U.S. Sanctions Strand Iran, Russia Oil On Tankers, Driving Up Crude Costs - Reuters
- Chinese Navy Flotilla With Laser-Armed Warship Sails Into Pacific - Newsweek
- Hegseth Rules Out NATO Membership For Ukraine And Says Europe Must Be Responsible For Country’s Security - CNN
- Apple Suppliers Exploring iPhone Production In Indonesia – Nikkei Asia
- As Pope Francis Condemns Trump, Vatican Cracks Down on Own Border - Newsweek
- RFE/RL Journalist Released From Belarus Jail - VOA
- Brazil Agriculture Agency Plans Long-Term Research Into Cannabis Cultivation - Reuters
- Macron And Modi Tour Marseille As France And India Push For Geopolitical 'Independence' – France 24
- Farming in France is on the decline. Who will feed the French? – Christian Science Monitor
Policy and Politics
House Republicans Release Budget Plan, With Trillions In Tax And Spending Cuts
House Republicans released a budget resolution on Wednesday, laying a foundation for advancing President Trump's agenda on border security, defense, energy and tax priorities, despite momentum around a competing proposal in the Senate. The budget proposal says that the House Ways and Means Committee can pursue up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, and sets a goal of cutting mandatory spending by $2 trillion. It would also increase the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
The long-awaited budget resolution comes as congressional leaders have been pursuing a massive legislative package under the budget reconciliation process that would enact Mr. Trump's agenda, including resources to bolster border security, extend some of the 2017 tax cuts, incentivize domestic manufacturing and invest in American energy, while working to trim government programs and address the debt limit. The House Budget Committee is also set to begin marking up its newly released budget resolution on Thursday, as House Republicans look to keep pace with the competing Senate proposal.
Trump Will Likely Unveil His Most Sweeping Tariffs Today: What To Know About Reciprocal Tariffs—And Inflation Impact
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday afternoon she believes Trump will unveil his reciprocal tariffs Thursday morning. The duties would go into effect “almost immediately” on “every country,” added Trump on Sunday. Reciprocal tariffs are straightforward in theory: The U.S. would pose the same levies on imported goods from a given country that the other country imposes on their U.S. imports. But it gets far murkier in practice, as countries often charge different tariffs on different classes of goods, and the taxes charged can often take several different forms. Goldman Sachs economists Alec Phillips and Elsie Peng outlined three approaches Trump could take in a Tuesday note to clients.
- “Country-level reciprocity” is the “simplest” strategy which would have the U.S. impose the same average tariffs trading partners slap on U.S. goods, according to the economists.
- “Product-level reciprocity by country” would have the U.S. place marching tariffs on a good-by-good basis by trading partner."
- Reciprocity including non-tariff barriers” is the “most difficult” approach as it would encompass a complicated web of inputs including inspection fees and value-added taxes.
First DOGE Committee Hearing Becomes Referendum On Elon Musk
Democrats on the panel took intense aim at Elon Musk, who is heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative under President Trump, accusing him of breaking the law in his quest to eliminate spending he deems wasteful and analyze government payments. The hearing did get into some discussion of the technicalities of improper payments. Witness Haywood Talcove, the CEO for Government at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, estimated that implementing front-end identity verification, eliminating self-certification and monitoring the back end of the programs could save $1 trillion annually across federal, state and local governments. That, he said, could take a fraud rating of around 20 percent to around 5 percent.
But another witness dinged the Trump administration’s actions for potentially hurting efforts to combat waste, fraud and abuse by firing inspectors general. “It seems to me that if an administration were serious about wanting to root out waste, fraud and abuse, they would support and resource whistleblowers and inspectors general, they would not demonize them, and they would certainly not fire them en masse in an unlawful midnight purge,” said Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette, director of government affairs at the Project on Government Oversight.
Trump’s First 100 Days
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Judge Lifts Freeze on Trump’s Buyout Plan for Federal Workers - WSJ
- Senate Confirms Gabbard To Serve As Nation’s Top Intelligence Chief – The Hill
- Are Trump’s Attempts to Overhaul the Federal Workforce Legal? – WSJ
- Trump, Musk Want To Curb FEMA. The Agency’s North Carolina Response Says Volumes. – Christian Science Monitor
- Tesla Faces Protests, Vandalism And Boycott Threats Over Musk’s MAGA-DOGE Work - Forbes
- Republicans Try to Save USAID Food Program - WSJ
- Democrats Dodge Questions Over Calling Off Special Elections Bill – NY State Of Politics
- Trump Says No Exemptions With Metal Tariffs To Start In March - BBC
- Federal Watchdogs Fired By Trump Urge Court To Reinstate Them - Politico
- Trump Orders US Agencies To Plan For 'Large-Scale' Staff Cuts - Reuters
- 4 FEMA Workers Fired Over Payments Made To NYC To Shelter Migrants - Gothamist
- Video: How Trump Is Testing the Boundaries of Presidential Power - WSJ
- OPM Eases Plans To Target All Federal Workers On Probation – The Hill
- The Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Confirmations - NYT
Health and Wellness
Apple Launches Sweeping New Health Study That May Inform Future Features
Apple on Wednesday announced a new longitudinal research study that will investigate relationships between different aspects of health that can be measured using its devices, potentially informing the development of new health features. The study spans a number of health and disease areas, including activity, aging, cardiovascular health, circulatory health, cognition, hearing, menstrual health, mental health, metabolic health, mobility, neurologic health, respiratory health, sleep, and more.
Called simply the Apple Health Study, the project is a collaboration with researchers at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and will enroll volunteers through Apple’s Research app, who will share as much or as little of their health data as they like. In addition to data about physical activity or sleep that might be captured in the Health app, the researchers will be able to distribute questionnaires to participants. People using Apple devices to collect data like steps or heart rate will also be able to contribute more granular data collected by built-in sensors. Right now the study is slated to run for five years.
Industry News
Amscan Hosting Job Fair Today for Laid Off Workers at Chester Location
Earlier this month Amscan, Inc. announced that, as a result of its bankruptcy, it was closing its Chester New York facility and laying off the 500 or so workers there effective mid-February. The company‘s HR team is working very hard to help their staff find employment elsewhere in the region. They have shared that they will be hosting an onsite job fair to bring employers into Amscan to meet their employees.
Thursday, February 13, 2025
1:30 – 6:00 PM
47 Elezabeth Drive
Chester, NY 10918
Main Cafeteria
Contact Shanique Warren at Amscan to learn more
Three Categories of US Goods That Could Rise In Price Due To Metal Tariffs
A 25% tax is set to be imposed on all imports of steel and aluminium into the US , ending exemptions from the rules for goods from major trade partners including Canada, Mexico, Brazil, as well as the European Union. The expanded tariff measures announced by President Donald Trump, expected to go into effect next month, will mean many US businesses wanting to bring the metals into the country will have to pay more. But there is a risk that the companies will pass on the added costs, or some portion of it, to consumers.
Since steel and aluminium are key components in many goods, what items could get more expensive?
- Canned food, beer and fizzy drinks. About 70% of the steel used in the US to make cans for food is imported today, coming in from countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Canada, according to the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI), a business group representing can-makers.
- Cars. TD Economics has estimated cars could go up in price by about $3,000 if blanket tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada came into force.
- Construction, housing and appliances. The construction industry as a sector is one of the single biggest users of steel, which developers and homebuilders need for everything from building frames to appliances. After Trump imposed steel tariffs in 2018, appliance maker Whirlpool faced an unexpected $350m jump in costs it said was driven by the increase in steel prices.
China Is Racing To Make Itself Less Reliant On The Outside World’s Products And Technology
China is racing to make itself less reliant on the outside world’s products and technology—part of a yearslong effort by leader Xi Jinping to make China more self-sufficient and impervious to Western pressure as tensions with the U.S. rise. Beijing has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into favored industries, especially in high-end manufacturing, while exhorting business leaders to fall in line with the government’s priorities. In many ways, the effort is succeeding.
Instead of relying on foreign firms for robots and medical devices, China is now making more of its own. Chinese-made solar panels are replacing some of the country’s need for imported energy. The success of China’s electric-vehicle makers and artificial-intelligence upstart DeepSeek has ignited fears that China might even eclipse the West in some cutting-edge sectors. Beneath those wins, however, Xi’s industrial policy is hugely expensive, eating up state resources as government revenues are stagnating. One estimate by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies put China’s annual spending on industrial policy at around $250 billion as of 2019.
Zelle Payments Top $1 Trillion In 2024 As Network’s Growth Outpaces Rivals Including PayPal
Zelle, the payments network run by bank-owned Early Warning Services, crossed $1 trillion in total volumes last year, which it said was the most ever for a peer-to-peer platform. The firm said Wednesday that its user base jumped 12% to 151 million accounts in 2024, and that the total dollars sent on the platform jumped 27% from the year earlier. Last year’s payment volumes were “by far the most money ever moved by a P2P payments service in a single year,” Denise Leonhard, general manager of Zelle, told CNBC.
Zelle, which was launched in 2017 in response to fintech platforms like Venmo, PayPal. Zelle’s meteoric rise comes amid accusations that the network and the three biggest U.S. banks on it failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursement. The company has introduced measures to reduce fraud and has said that 99.95% of transactions are free of fraud and scams. Growth is being driven as bank customers increasingly use Zelle instead of cash or checks, and as small businesses adopt the payment option, said Leonhard.
Interview: The CEO Mindset That Brought Xerox Back to Life
As a college intern at xerox in 1980, Ursula Burns didn’t walk the halls assuming she would run the whole joint one day. Yet less than three decades later, she did just that, becoming CEO in 2009, and the first Black woman to run a Fortune 500 company. By then, interns were no longer being asked to “Xerox” papers. Turning the juggernaut on a dime, Burns guided Xerox as it shed its photocopier branding to become one of the most diversified business-services companies worldwide. In her third year, back-office IT services to process healthcare claims, retail transactions, E-ZPass and parking fees accounted for more than 50 % of its $22.2 billion revenue.
As for the role of luck in one’s career decisions? Ursula Burns is clear: “There’s no such thing as pure luck. I work on preparedness. Besides, luck often comes at you in ugly forms.” It sure can: She started her tenure as CEO just as the country was emerging from a severe recession.
What Would It Actually Take To Make U.S. Steel Into The Global Titan It Once Was?
U.S. steel producers certainly have something to celebrate with the new 25% tariffs on imported steel. But even if it helps the industry, the U.S. has nothing like the control of the global market it once had. And steel is far from the great American employer it once was. Not much can change that. Before the 1970s, “we made more steel than anybody else in the world,” said Raymond Monroe with the Steel Founders’ Society of America. Then other countries started to lead the pack, like Russia, Japan and, nowadays, China. “This year we’ll make 90 million tons. China will make 1 billion tons. Make more steel than the rest of the world combined,” Monroe said.
The U.S. was still the fourth-biggest producer globally in 2023, according to the World Steel Association. It’s just that our production hasn’t grown much. And U.S. steel employment has shrunk significantly. Tom Prusa, an economist at Rutgers University, attributes that to technology. “Yes, there’s a lot fewer workers. Is that because of imports, or is that because they’ve gotten way better at producing steel? I think it’s the latter,” he said. Prusa said American steel just takes many fewer people to make than it used to, which helps it stay competitive.
Container Imports For January Hit Record 2,487,470 TEUs, Said Descartes.
Amid a backdrop of tariff volatility, with the U.S. imposing a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods as of February 4 while more aggressive 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were paused until March, U.S. container imports reached a record for January at 2,487,470 TEUs. This figure came from the February Global Shipping Report. issued by Descartes Systems Group on Februrary 10.
Despite elevated volumes for a seventh consecutive month, overall port transit time delays are not significantly lengthening at the top 10 U.S. ports, the report notes. Imports from China were up for a second month, with January volumes reaching 997,909 TEUs, a notable 10.6% rise over December and just 2.4% shy of the all-time high of 1,022,912 TEUs set in July 2024. “The impact of new and potential tariffs, coupled with a late Chinese Lunar New Year (January 29 – February 12), may have contributed to higher U.S. container imports in January,” said Jackson Wood, director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, in a statement.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Declining Sales to the Auto Industry Cause Overall Robot Sales to Stall in 2024
The story of robotics in 2024 seems defined by expansion into non-automotive companies like food and consumer goods, that saw robot orders increase by 65%, and life sciences, pharma and biomedical companies, that as a sector increased robot orders increase by 46%. Q4 2024 specifically showed some decent numbers over 2023, with 8% growth in both units shipped and revenue for North American companies. Food and consumer goods showed 77% year-over-year growth. Overall, however, the Association for Advancing Automation (A3) North American robotics market report for 2024 showed some unimpressive overall numbers, a 0.5% increase in units shipped and 0.1% increase in revenue over 2023.
In industries we more commonly associate with robotics, A3 reports losses. Orders for semiconductor and electronics companies fell by 37% annually and automotive component companies posted a 15% decline in orders. Semiconductor, electronics and automotive companies have always been ahead of the curve when it comes to robotics. Their industries might not even be possible at scale without robots, so it makes sense that without precipitous rises in the number of companies operating in these sectors, robot orders would cool.
Natural Doesn't Always Mean Better: How To Spot If Someone Is Trying To Convince You With An 'Appeal To Nature'
Often called an "appeal to nature", or the "naturalistic fallacy", it is one of the most commonly-seen types of logical fallacies, or flaws in reasoning that can make a claim sound surprisingly convincing. Anytime you hear someone make a claim that a product or practice is superior because it is "natural", or that one is inferior (or even harmful) because it is not "natural", this is the naturalistic fallacy at work. So are arguments that something is "as nature intended", or that something is bad specifically because it is a "chemical" or "synthetic".
Nature is, in many ways, wonderful. And it has a great deal to teach us. So why isn't it true that something is better merely because it comes from nature? For one thing, because nature, of course, does not have intentions – not in any conscious sense. As such, nor does it have intentions to be good, or to help humans, specifically. And this is the trouble with the use of the word natural that is so commonly used to market products. It is a poorly defined term that doesn't necessarily mean the product labelled as such will be better for you, or indeed safer, than any other alternatives.