Member Briefing February 28. 2024
Durable-Goods Orders Drop 6.1% in January on Fewer Airplane Contracts
Orders for long-lasting goods in the U.S. fell more than expected last month, suggesting a slump in demand at the start of the year. New orders for products meant to last at least three years, such as appliances, computers, cars and other manufactured goods, fell 6.1% on month, according to adjusted Commerce Department data published Tuesday. This was more than the 5% decrease forecast by economists in a poll compiled by The Wall Street Journal and continues the 0.3% fall booked at the end of last year.
Orders for commercial planes nosedived 59% in January. Boeing garnered a big flush of contracts in December, and as expected, saw new deals dry up in January. Its business tends to be highly cyclical. Carmakers for their part, saw a slight 0.4% decline in orders. Sales tend to be strong in the final month of the year and soften at the start of a new one. Omitting those two dominant industries, orders minus transportation showed a slight decrease. Shipments of core manufactured goods, meanwhile, rose 0.8% in January after barely any gain in the prior month. The figure omits defense and transportation and is a proxy for broader business performance.
Professional Forecasters Raise Expectations for US Economy in 2024
The economy looks set to grow 2.2% this year after adjusting for inflation, according to the National Association for Business Economics. That’s up from the 1.3% that economists from universities, businesses and investment firms predicted in the association’s prior survey, which was conducted in November. In its survey, the NABE said 41% of respondents cited high rates as the most significant risk to the economy. That was more than double any other response, including fears of a possible credit crunch or a broadening of the wars in Ukraine or the Middle East.
It’s the latest signal of strength for an economy that’s blasted through predictions of a recession. While the outlook for the U.S. economy remains bright, expectations for the international economy are less sanguine. On Monday, the head of the World Trade Organization warned that war, uncertainty and instability were weighing down the global economy and urged the bloc to embrace reforms.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel and Hamas: The Latest News – The Guardian
- Biden Hoping For Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Next Week - Forbes
- Details of 40-day Gaza Truce Draft Proposal Being Studied by Hamas - Reuters
- Israel and Hamas Distance Themselves from Biden’s Optimism on Gaza Ceasefire Deal - CNN
- What a New Palestinian Government in the West Bank Means for the War in Gaza? - AP
- 2024 Israeli Municipal Elections May Offer a Glimpse of the Political Mood - NYT
- How Israel's Assassination Campaign Against Hamas Could Backfire – Foreign Policy
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation in Gaza – Institute for the Study of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack on Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukraine and Russia: The Latest News – The Guardian
- WSJ: “A Report to Our Readers” on Evan Gershkovich - WSJ
- Russia Warns NATO of Certain War if West Puts Troops Into Ukraine - Politico
- How Many Russian Soldiers Have Died in Ukraine? The Economist
- Macron Says Sending Western Troops to Ukraine Cannot be Ruled Out - FT
- NATO’s Confusion Over the Russia Threat – Foreign Policy
- Prominent Russian Human Rights Activist Oleg Orlov Gets 2 1/2 Years in Prison for Criticizing War - AP
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine – Institute for the Study of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Sudan Authorities Block Cross-Border Aid to Stricken Darfur – France 24
- Chinese EV Billionaire Boosts His Wealth To Almost $10 Billion - Forbes
- Germans Debate the Once-Unthinkable: Do We Need Nuclear Weapons? - WSJ
- The Plan to Replace Huawei Gains Steam – Politico
- China’s Former Foreign Minister Qin Gang Resigns from Legislature After Long Absence from Public View - SCMP
- Senegal President Proposes General Amnesty Amidst Political Tensions – Africa News
- Nationwide Protest Kicks Off As Nigerian Labour Congress Meeting with Government Ends In Deadlock – Sahara Reporters
- Security Council 'Perhaps Fatally' Undermined by Gaza, Ukraine Deadlock, Says UN Chief – Reuters
- Venezuela Halts Flights of Deported Migrants From U.S. and Mexico - WSJ
Policy and Politics
Tensions Over Ukraine, Border Overshadow Shutdown at White House Meeting
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Tuesday said he is “very optimistic” Congress will avert a shutdown by Friday’s deadline after meeting with President Biden and top congressional leaders at the White House. “We have been working in good faith around the clock every single day for months and weeks, and over the last several days, quite literally around the clock to get that job done. We’re very optimistic,” Johnson told reporters on the White House lawn.
The positive outlook comes three days ahead of Friday’s partial government funding deadline, when four of the 12 annual spending bills are due. Without congressional action, a slew of programs and agencies will shut down. The remaining eight bills will lapse March 8. Congressional leaders had hoped to unveil the compromise spending measures over the weekend, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) informed members in a Sunday letter that negotiators had not yet reached an agreement on the legislation. The lack of substantial progress days before the deadline is fueling chatter that another short-term stopgap bill will be needed to keep the lights on and give negotiators more time to hash out their differences.
‘Classic Mismanagement’ at The Federal Trade Commission
For decades, the FTC was respected on both sides of the aisle for its professional leadership and bipartisan approach to enforcement and policy making. But as a report on the Federal Trade Commission from the staff of the House Judiciary Committee makes clear, under chair Lina Khan the agency has not only been captured by an ideological agenda, but also plagued by classic mismanagement.
Agency managers complain of “stated objectives that sound more like progressive buzzwords than actual direction,” routine “scapegoating of career staff,” micromanagement, unnecessary delays that sap morale, and an overall disregard for whether or not the agency can win in court. data from the Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey. Asked whether senior leaders of the agency maintain high standards of honesty and integrity, employees at the FTC scored their agency at 87% in 2020, but 53% in 2021, 49% in 2022 and 58% in 2023. On the key question of whether senior leadership generates high levels of motivation and commitment from staff, scores dropped from 80% in 2020 to under 50% in each of the subsequent three years.
State Democrats Introduce New Congressional Maps After Rejecting Redistricting Commission's Latest Proposal
New York Democrats are wasting no time presenting a new set of congressional maps after the state Legislature on Monday rejected the newest proposed boundaries drawn by the state's Independent Redistricting Commission. The biggest changes would be on Long Island, where more of eastern Suffolk County would be ceded from the 2nd Congrssional District, represented by Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino, to the 1st District, represented by Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. Part of western Suffolk County would shift the 2nd District to the 3rd, soon to be represented by Democrat Tom Suozzi when he is sworn in this week after winning a special election to replace former Rep. George Santos.
Across upstate, much like the IRC’s proposal, the biggest change from the current lines should this map be enacted would be in the 22nd District, which is anchored by the city of Syracuse and represented by Republican Rep. Brandon Williams. It would include all of Onondaga and Madison counties, southern Oneida County, southern Cayuga County and northern Cortland County. Democrat Pat Ryan's 18th District would lose more of Ulster County to Republican Marc Molinaro's 19th District.
Read more at NY State of Politics
Health and Wellness
Gen Z is More Likely to Call in Sick Than Gen Xers Thanks to a Mental Health Crisis ‘Turbocharged’ by Young Women
People in their early 20s are more likely to be not working due to ill health than those in their early 40s, a report has found. This is "radically different" from the past, the Resolution Foundation said. Poor mental health among young people is on the rise, official figures show. This can hamper their education and lead to them being in lower-paid jobs or unemployed, the report said. One in 20 young people (5%) were economically inactive due to ill health in 2023, it said.
According to the report, young people now have the poorest mental health of any age group - a reversal from two decades ago when they had the lowest incidence of common mental disorders. In 2021/22, 34% of young people aged 18 to 24 reported symptoms of a mental disorder, such as depression, anxiety or bipolar disorder. In 2000, that figure stood at 24%. As a result, more than half a million 18 to 24 year olds were prescribed anti-depressants in 2021-22. The study found that young women fare worse, and are one-and-a-half times more likely to experience poor mental health as young men (41% compared with 26%).
Election 2024
- Biden, Trump Win Michigan Primaries – Fox News
- More Than 2,300 Westchester Voters Flipped From Republican to Dem for Bowman-Latimer Primary - LoHud
- Real Clear Politics Latest GOP Primary Polls – Real Clear Politics
- Real Clear Politics Latest General Election Polls – Real Clear Politics
- Latest Polls - FiveThirtyEight
Industry News
US Consumer Confidence Decreases for First Time in Four Months
Consumer confidence remains shaky—that's the takeaway from the February Consumer Confidence report. it slipped to 106.7 in February. The outturn is surprising to us given rising equity values, slowing inflation and a still-sturdy labor market. But if you ask consumers, they're growing increasingly concerned about labor prospects, and that's to blame for this drop in confidence. Confidence dropped by the most in four months in February, slipping 4.2 points. The drop coincides with downward revisions to past months' data. Prior to revisions, confidence had hit a two-year high in January, but now the data suggest confidence was just the highest in six months at the start of the year.
The drop in consumers perceptions of current conditions reversed the January gain, driving the Present Situation Index down to the level that prevailed in December. Household expectations also weakened in February. The Expectations Index declined by the most in four months (-1.7 points) and marked the second consecutive decline.
Boeing Safety Culture Can Be ‘Inadequate And Confusing,’ Report Finds After 737 Max Issues
An independent panel convened by the FAA found Boeing’s attempts to improve safety were not where they needed to be, saying there was still a “disconnect” between management and the organization on “safety culture”. The panel, which was made of independent experts in the industry, said in a report Monday it observed “inadequate and confusing implementation” of elements of a positive safety culture and that Boeing’s procedures for safety management systems weren’t structured in a way that “ensures all employees understand their role,” saying the procedures and trainings were “complex and in a constant state of change.”
The report also found Boeing’s safety reporting systems weren’t structured in a way to best avoid retaliation and ensure open communication. The FAA said in a statement it would “immediately begin a thorough review of the report and determine next steps regarding the recommendations as appropriate,” adding it will “continue to hold Boeing to the highest standard of safety.” Connor Greenwood, a spokesperson for Boeing, said in a statement on Monday that Boeing “supported the panel’s review,” and had “taken important steps to foster a safety culture that empowers and encourages all employees to share their voice, but there is more work to do.”
Federal Trade Commission Sues To Stop Kroger-Albertsons Merger
The Federal Trade Commission sued to block a proposed merger between grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons, saying the $24.6 billion deal would eliminate competition and lead to higher prices for millions of Americans. The FTC filed an administrative complaint against the companies Monday, which will be considered by an administrative law judge at the agency. It also filed a lawsuit with the U.S. District Court in Oregon requesting a temporary injunction blocking the merger. That lawsuit was joined by the attorneys general of eight states and the District of Columbia. Both companies, immediately after the FTC announcement, said that they will challenge the agency in court.
Kroger and Albertsons, two of the nation’s largest grocers, agreed to merge in October 2022. The companies said a merger would help them better compete with Walmart, Amazon, Costco and other big rivals. Together, Kroger and Albertsons would control around 13% of the U.S. grocery market; Walmart controls 22%, according to J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman.
Macy’s Will Close 150 Stores Over The Next 3 Years
Macy’s on Tuesday announced plans to shutter 150 stores and expand its Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury chains, part of the retailer’s plans to revitalize its fortunes and usher in “a bold new chapter” as it fends off a looming takeover bid. Macy’s said it will close the 150 “underproductive” stores through 2026 as part of a plan to “accelerate our path to market share gains, sustainable, profitable growth and value creation for our shareholders.”
The figure, representing around a third of Macy’s U.S. stores, will bring the company’s store count down to around 350 stores. Approximately 50 stores will close by the end of the fiscal year, Macy’s said.
Norfolk Southern Urges Shareholders to Reject Activist Investor's Takeover Plan at the Railroad
Norfolk Southern is bolstering its board as it seeks to fend off a shareholder-activist group waging a proxy battle against the freight railroad. The company is looking to add former Amtrak and airline executive Richard Anderson and former U.S. senator Mary Kathryn “Heidi” Heitkamp to its board of directors as investor group Ancora Holdings presses its own effort to overhaul Norfolk Southern’s leadership through its roughly $1 billion stake in the carrier.
Ancora argues that Norfolk Southern hasn't done nearly enough to improve its efficiency because its profits continue to disappoint, and its operating ratio — a key measure of profitability that rail investors track — lags behind the other major freight railroads. So Ancora wants to hire former UPS executive Jim Barber and former CSX chief operating officer Jamie Boychuk to run the the railroad. Ancora’s slate of new directors includes former Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Norfolk Southern warns in its proxy materials that Boychuk has a reputation for extreme cost-cutting. That’s a potentially precarious path for the railroad, which faces intense regulatory scrutiny over a toxic train derailment early last year.
Hybrids Lead Consumer Reports’ Top 10 New Vehicle Picks
Hybrid vehicles led the 2024 top vehicle rankings released Tuesday by influential product testing organization Consumer Reports. Such “electrified” vehicles, including plug-in hybrid models, represented six of the top 10 picks by the nonprofit consumer organization. The non-hybrid models rounding out the list were the all-electric Tesla Model Y crossover and three gas-powered vehicles with no hybrid variants.
It marks the second consecutive year that seven electrified or fully electric vehicles have been included in Consumer Reports’ top picks, as automakers release numerous models of the vehicles to meet consumer demand as well as tightening federal fuel economy regulations. Toyota Motor had the most top picks of any automaker, at four, followed by Subaru at two. Tesla, Ford Motor, Mazda and BMW each had one vehicle on the list. Toyota’s four vehicles in the top 10 rankings were all hybrid or plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Majority of Workers at Mercedes Plant in Alabama Sign UAW Authorization Cards
A majority of workers at Mercedes-Benz's largest plant in the United States have signed authorization cards for United Auto Workers representation, the union said on Tuesday. The milestone comes less than seven weeks since the Detroit-based union hit the 30% milestone at the plant in Vance, Alabama, outside Tuscaloosa. Securing a majority of the autoworkers' backing means the union will hold a rally to drum up further support. Once 70% of workers at a plant sign authorization cards, the UAW would demand the company recognize its representation, or else pursue a National Labor Relations Board election.
The union hasn't hit the 70% mark at any transplant location since launching its campaign to organize foreign-owned and EV startup plants after securing record national contracts last year with the Detroit Three. The Mercedes plant is the second to hit the 50% threshold after workers at Volkswagen AG's plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, did so earlier this month.
Robot Technologies Trends are Converging to Create Solutions Manufacturers
As the number of operational robots globally reached a new record of 3.9 million units, The International Federation of Robotics offers its analysis of the trends in 2024, that will continue to be responsible for this uptake. First, the trend of using artificial intelligence in robotics and automation keeps growing. Robot manufacturers are developing generative AI-driven interfaces which allow users to program robots more intuitively by using natural language instead of code. Workers will no longer need specialized programming skills to select and adjust the robot´s actions.
Second, is co-bots or human-robot collaboration. Rapid advances in sensors, vision technologies and smart grippers allow robots to respond in real-time to changes in their environment and thus work safely alongside human workers. Collaborative robot applications offer a new tool for human workers, relieving and supporting them. They can assist with tasks that require heavy lifting, repetitive motions, or work in dangerous environments. Other 2024 and beyond trends include mobile manipulators, digital twins, and humanoid robots.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Intuitive Machines Expects Early End to IM-1 Lunar Lander Mission, Shares Photos
Intuitive Machines said Feb. 26 it expects to communicate with its Odysseus lunar lander, tipped on its side on the lunar surface, for only one more day, a much shorter timeline than previously expected. In an update posted Feb. 26, the first since a Feb. 23 briefing where the company revealed the Nova-C lander likely tipped over while landing the previous day, the company released a low-resolution image taken by the spacecraft after landing. The image showed part of the lander and the shadow it cast on the surface, but few other details about the health and status of the lander. The company also released an image taken during the lander’s descent.
The company said the lander “continues to communicate with flight controllers” but did not disclose how much data that the spacecraft has returned beyond those images. At the Feb. 23 briefing, Intuitive Machines executives said they were working to reconfigure antennas to increase downlink rates but did not estimate what sort of data rates they expected.