Member Briefing December 30, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

US Pending Home Sales Surge To Highest In Nearly 3 Years In November, NAR Says

Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly shot to the highest in nearly three years in November, as improving affordability conditions drew in buyers, the National Association of Realtors said on Monday. Pending home sales rose 3.3% last month after an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in October and were up 2.6% from a year earlier the NAR said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 1.0%. The index tracking sales rose to its highest level since February 2023. Sales rose in all four regions of the US.

Mortgage rates have edged lower since the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts in September, though it is unclear if rates will fall much further in the months ahead with the central bank signaling a likely pause in the reductions. Data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed the latest 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.18%, near the lowest since the fall of 2024.

Read more at Reuters

US Economy To Ride Tax Cut Tailwind But Faces Risks

A see-saw year for the U.S. economy in 2025 looks set to give way to a stronger 2026 thanks to tailwinds from President Donald Trump's tax cuts, less uncertainty around tariffs, the ongoing artificial intelligence boom and a late-year run of interest-rate reductions from the Federal Reserve. Among the biggest drivers of a pickup in growth, economists say, are fatter tax refunds and smaller tax withholdings on paychecks that are expected to provide a lift to consumer spending, the backbone of the American economy. "The boost from fiscal stimulus alone could add one-half percent or more to first quarter GDP growth," wrote KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk.

Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill also gives companies a range of credits and tax breaks, including the ability to fully write off expenses from investments, that may fuel capital spending beyond data centers and other AI-related areas. At the same time, the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices is projected to peak in the first half of the year. If price pressures then recede, as Fed policymakers increasingly believe they will, wages will have more room to outpace inflation, bolstering household finances further. There are many other risks: A weakening labor market, still-elevated inflation, and a central bank deeply divided over which of those dueling problems to focus on.

Read more at Reuters

Burning Questions for 2026: Industry, AI, Geopolitics and the Future of Manufacturing

As we enter 2026, manufacturing leaders face a landscape shaped by converging disruptions: AI acceleration, geopolitical fragmentation, sustainability pressures and industrial policy. Below are eight “burning questions” that I see defining what happens in 2026 and beyond—and why the answers matter.

1.     Is the AI bubble going to burst?

2.     Will the tariff whirlwind continue—and which industries get hit next?

3.     Will humanoid robots take over industrial operations at scale?

4.     Does quantum computing bring real value to the industrial sector?

5.     Can we remove humans from AI- and agent-managed processes?

6.     Cybersecurity: Who’s the next victim?

7.     Does the U.S. keep its technology dominance?

8.     Is sustainability still a priority, or has industry moved on?

The pace of technological, geopolitical and industrial change makes precise forecasting nearly impossible. Organizations that anticipate corrections and embrace flexibility will navigate 2026 more successfully than those chasing certainty.

Read more at IndustryWeek

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Clock Ticking On Government Funding Deadline As House Battles Other Issues

The two-week holiday recess, a contentious health care debate and discharge petition showdowns are squeezing the House’s legislative calendar, raising doubts about whether lawmakers can finalize government funding before the Jan. 30 deadline. So far, lawmakers have passed only three of the 12 appropriations bills needed to fund the government. They must pass the remaining nine bills — or enact a temporary stopgap measure — to keep the rest of the government running past the end of January. If not, another shutdown is on the table.

Republicans are facing mounting pressure as Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are set to expire at the end of the month. Four GOP lawmakers broke ranks to join Democrats in advancing a discharge petition to bring a three-year subsidy extension bill to the floor in January over the objections of leadership. Lawmakers expect the Senate to amend the bill if it passes the House. And any bill that passes the Senate with changes has to be sent back to the House for another vote — a process that will likely also be lengthy and contentious. Complicating matters further is the push for a congressional stock trading ban that is expected to take up additional floor time.

Read more at The Hill

NY LLC Transparency Act Takes Effect on January 1, 2026: What Companies Need to Know

Starting January 1, 2026, limited liability companies operating in New York will face new reporting requirements under the state’s LLC Transparency Act. The law requires all LLCs to file beneficial ownership information—or an exemption attestation—with the New York Department of State. Governor Kathy Hochul, who signed the law in 2023, said the measure will help “give law enforcement and state regulators the tools they need to hold bad actors accountable.”

LLCs formed before January 1, 2026, must submit their initial filing by December 31, 2026, while any LLC formed or registered in New York on or after January 1, 2026, will have just 30 days from formation to comply. Required information includes the full legal name, date of birth, address, and identification number of company applicants and beneficial owners. Unlike federal filings, FinCEN identification numbers will not be accepted. Failure to comply could result in penalties of up to $500 per day, making early preparation critical for business owners across the state.

Read more at Paul Weiss

Overtime Thresholds In NYS To Increase On January 1st

New York State will raise its overtime salary thresholds for certain salaried employees, a change that will affect businesses and workers across the state, starting on January 1, 2026. The updated limits determine which executive and administrative employees can be classified as exempt from overtime pay. Under the new rules, employees working in New York City, Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk counties), and Westchester County must earn at least $1,275 per week, or $66,300 annually, to be exempt from overtime. For the remainder of the state, including the Hudson Valley and Catskills regions, the threshold will rise to $1,199.10 per week, or $62,353.20 annually.

The increases continue New York’s tiered system, which sets different salary levels depending on region. Employees who earn below these thresholds are generally entitled to overtime pay at one and a half times their regular rate for any hours worked over 40 in a workweek, regardless of their job title or duties. The annual adjustments are set by the State Department of Labor and are designed to ensure that more salaried workers receive overtime protections as wages and living costs change.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

More Policy and Politics Headlines

8 Mental Health Trends for 2026 and What They Mean for Your Workplace

AI, economic instability, global conflict, and shifting employee expectations have reshaped the workplace in just the past year. For HR and Benefits leaders, staying ahead of these trends isn’t just about planning—it’s about protecting the mental health and resilience of your workforce. So what should you be preparing for in 2026? We asked a handful of Spring Health leaders and our LinkedIn community one question: What is one mental health issue that 2026 will be defined by, and how can HR and benefits leaders get in front of it?

1.     Always-on care that meets our always-on reality

2.     The integration of AI in mental health

3.     How AI is reshaping employee stress and anxiety

4.     Cost containment without compromising mental health

5.     The rise of mental health–related leave

6.     Tackling burnout in all its forms

7.     Politics and division drive anxiety

8.     Increasing support for neurodivergent employees

Read more Spring Health

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Friday May 8, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

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Training

LAST CHANCE - CLASSES START NEXT WEEK Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Winter Session, Virtual. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (15 half day sessions) January 6 - March 11 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

The Trade War Is De-Escalating And Settling Around 15% Tariffs, Bank Of America's CEO Says

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said the Trump administration's trade policy is showing signs of de-escalation after a year in which tariffs unsettled businesses. "If you go back to where we were in April, there was a lot of lack of understanding about where this would end up, and that affected small businesses and medium-sized businesses," Moynihan said on CBS News' "Face the Nation," which aired Sunday. "They were shocked," he said.

Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has rolled out a 10% baseline tariff on imports, alongside higher rates for certain countries and product-specific duties such as those on automobiles. But what initially disrupted planning and purchasing decisions is now becoming clearer, Moynihan said, with Bank of America's internal outlook pointing toward a broad tariff floor. As negotiations progressed, Moynihan said tariffs have begun clustering around roughly 15% for many countries, with higher levels reserved for those that decline to buy US goods or ease non-tariff barriers. China, however, is an exception, Moynihan said. "China's a different question, because the national security interests, the rare earth minerals, the magnets, batteries, just AI, all that stuff. It's a very different case."

Read more at Business Insider

China Leads Decline in Global Steel Output

Global steel production is on track to drop for the fourth consecutive year, as the eleven-month output for 2025 now totals 1.66 billion metric tons, down -2.0% from the January-November 2024 result, according to the World Steel Assn. Many of the same conditions that contributed to the past annual declines continue to affect steel output worldwide, including weak industrial demand and slow construction activity. One factor that has influenced the global steel market is the enactment of U.S. tariffs on steel imports since April, which has resulted in rising output by domestic steelmakers.

  • Chinese raw-steel output in November was 69.9 million metric tons - roughly half of the world’s total last month - which was -3.0% less than the October total and -10.9% less than the November 2024 result.
  • During November, Indian steelmakers produced 13.7 million metric tons of raw steel, nearly 10.0% of the global output for the month. The total is roughly even (+0.7%) with the October total, but 10.8% more than last November’s result.
  • During November, U.S. steelmakers produced 6.8 million metric tons of raw steel, -2.9% less than during October but 8.5% more than the November 2024 result.
  • Japan, now ranking fourth among the world's largest steelmaking nations, produced 6.8 million metric tons during November, -1.5% less than during October and -1.6% less than November 2024.
  • In the European Union, including Germany, the eight-largest steel-producing nation, November yielded 10.2 million metric tons of raw steel, which was -3.5% less than last November.

Read more at American Machinist

Be Prepared to Keep Paying More for Electricity

Most Americans are paying more for electricity—and need to prepare their wallets for further pain ahead. Data centers are getting much of the blame lately for rising power costs, but they aren’t the only catalyst and don’t always cause increases. The reasons our bills are rising are complex and varied. Hurricanes, wildfires, state renewable-energy plans and the replacement of aging or damaged grid equipment are all playing a role. “I do think that we’re entering a new era, a new politics of electricity,” said Charles Hua, executive director of PowerLines, a nonprofit that advocates for utility customers.

The Energy Department expects the U.S. average residential electricity rate to rise around 4% next year following a 4.9% increase in 2025. Spending on power is usually the second-biggest energy-related expense for consumers after gasoline. The cost of electricity generally has moved higher with inflation, but it began outstripping other cost increases in 2022, when natural-gas prices soared after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Outsize price shocks haven’t been universal. Customers in most U.S. states saw electricity-price increases that were lower than inflation from 2019 to 2024, according to a study led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Read more at The WSJ

Nvidia takes $5 billion stake in Intel under September agreement

Nvidia has purchased Intel shares worth $5 billion, the ​American semiconductor firm said in ‌a filing on Monday, carrying out a transaction ‌announced in September. The leading AI chip designer said in September it would pay $23.28 per share for Intel ⁠common stock, in ‌a deal that is seen as a major financial ‍lifeline for the chipmaker after years of missteps and capital intensive production capacity expansions ​drained its finances.

The world's most ‌valuable firm has bought over 214.7 million Intel shares at the price set out in the September agreement, in a private placement, according to ⁠Monday's filing. U.S. antitrust agencies ​had cleared Nvidia's ​investment in Intel, according to a notice posted by the U.S. ‍Federal Trade ⁠Commission earlier in December.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

GM’s Record Stock Performance Beats Tesla, Ford And Other Automakers In 2025

General Motors is on pace to be the top U.S.-traded automaker stock of 2025, as shares of GM are having their best year since the Detroit company’s reemergence from bankruptcy in 2009. GM stock is up over 55% to a record of more than $80 per share, as of Friday’s close, topping the company’s previous annual increase of 48.3% last year. That includes a nearly 13% rise so far in December, adding to five consecutive months of share gains, according to FactSet.

Several factors have been driving the share increase. But GM CEO Mary Barra and other executives have contended for years that the automaker’s stock has been significantly undervalued given its consistent earnings performance. “Great vehicles, innovative technology, a rewarding customer experience, along with strong financial results, will continue to set GM apart in an increasingly competitive landscape,” Barra said during the company’s last quarterly earnings call in October. GM’s stock performance compares with a 17% yearly increase for Tesla as of Friday’s close, a 34% jump for Ford Motor and a 15% loss for Chrysler parent Stellantis. Other U.S.-traded automakers such as Honda Motor and Toyota Motor have had smaller annual gains.

Read more at CNBC

Lockheed Awarded $3.6B for F-35 Support

The Pentagon awarded $3.63 billion to Lockheed Martin as a modification to an existing contract to fund ongoing logistical support for F-35 jets, for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and foreign military operators of the Joint Strike Fighter aircraft. The funds will cover a wide range of services and activities through 2026, including ground maintenance, “action request solution,” depot activities, automatic logistics information system operations and maintenance, reliability and maintainability, and supply-chain management.

Lockheed is the prime contractor for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, which has more than 1,600 total suppliers, including major manufacturers like BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, and Pratt & Whitney. The single-engine, Stealth-enabled aircraft is deployed for ground attack and combat, and available in three variants. More than 1,200 of the fighter jets have been completed and delivered to the USAF, USMC, USN, and defense forces in about a dozen other nations.

Read more at American Machinist

Border Delays of Industrial Goods Stall Global Infrastructure

Disruption in industrial supply chains is hampering global infrastructure development, according to a new report from DP World. The report, based on a global survey, finds that 94% of industrial cargo owners face customs or border delays, slowing the movement of essential machinery, steel and equipment to construction and energy projects worldwide. The study highlights a sector struggling to meet the global population’s needs, threatening economic growth, climate security and quality of life. Industrial goods supply chains – which power everything from roads and bridges to factories and renewable energy - are now operating with near-constant disruption.

Ninety-one percent of respondents report border delays and container shortages, while 88% report climate-related disruptions pushing projects beyond milestone windows and commissioning dates. The effect on project performance is immediate. Each extra day at a port or border has a double impact – raising logistics costs and inflating the cost of people and assets waiting on-site. In response, the sector is shifting toward predictive capability and upstream control, with 79% of businesses expecting to increase logistics spending over the next three years. Crucially, data from the report shows that investment in inbound logistics and production logistics technology can reduce disruption by 60%. 

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics

Oil Prices Rise As Tensions Flare In Yemen, Peace Hopes Dented In Ukraine

Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday as traders braced for potential supply disruptions in the Middle East due to rising tensions in Yemen, and Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on its President Vladimir Putin's residence. Brent crude futures rose $1, or 1.7%, to $61.64 a barrel by 1:18 p.m. ET (1818 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.10, or 1.9%, at $57.84.

"The market's focus has shifted toward the Middle East, where fresh instability, including Saudi air strikes in Yemen, is keeping supply-disruption headlines in play," Gelber & Associates said in a note. Yemen's Saudi-led coalition said any military moves by the main southern separatist group in the eastern province of Hadramout that undermined de-escalation efforts would be countered to protect civilians, the Saudi state news agency reported on Saturday.

Read more at MSN

New NASA Boss Isaacman Says U.S. Will Return To The Moon Within Trump’s Term

Recently appointed NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on Friday told CNBC that the U.S. will return to the moon within President Donald Trump’s second term. Isaacman, a close ally of SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” that Trump’s recommitment to exploring the moon is key to unlocking the “orbital economy.” “We want to have that opportunity to explore and realize the scientific, economic and national security potential on the moon,” he said.

Lunar opportunities include establishing space data centers and infrastructure, as well as potentially mining Helium-3, a rare gas embedded in the moon’s surface that could become a major fuel for fusion power, Isaacman said. He added that after building a “moon base,” NASA will look into making investments in nuclear power and space nuclear propulsion to further exploration. NASA is currently working with various contractors including SpaceX, Jeff Bezo’s Blue Origin and Boeing, to participate in its Artemis campaign, a moon exploration program that also aims to prepare for Mars missions.

Read more at CNBC

Quote of the Day

“Now this is the Law of the Jungle -- as old and as true as the sky;

And the Wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the Wolf that shall break it must die.

As the creeper that girdles the tree-trunk the Law runneth forward and back --

For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.”

Rudyard Kipling - English Poet and Author from his novel "The Jungle Book." He was born on this day in 1865.

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