Member Briefing January 20, 2025
Strong Finish to 2024 Overstates Strength in Industrial Production
Industrial activity popped to end what was a pretty lackluster year for the sector. Overall production jumped 0.9% in December which marked the fastest monthly gain since February, but that leaves the index up just a half a percent compared to where it stood a year ago. Production received a lift by all major components in December. Mining output rose 1.8% and utilities production jumped 2.1% on stronger natural gas production. Much of the overall gain can be traced to the largest component, manufacturing output, which rose 0.6% in December on the heels of upwardly revised data for November.
A majority of the strength can be tied to a 6.3% gain in civilian aircraft production reflecting the end to a strike at Boeing. The overall manufacturing index finished the year at 99.3, which is precisely where it ended 2023. There have been some pockets of strength that have bucked the dull trend, namely in high-tech industries like computer & electronic products and electrical equipment & appliances. A notable offset to broad-based weakness also came from the large chemical industry where production was up 5.4% over the past year. But most industries experienced flat-to-down growth in 2024 with capex demand sapped by less liquidity, high interest rates and most notably continued uncertainty.
U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts, Permits Hit 10-Month High In December
U.S. single-family homebuilding increased to a 10-month high in December, indicating some improvement in housing activity at the end of the year, though rising mortgage rates and an oversupply of new properties on the market could constrain recovery. The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed permits for future construction of single-family homes rising last month to the highest level since last February. Economists said the data was likely flattered by a generous seasonal adjustment factor, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the numbers.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.050 million units last month, the highest level since February 2024. Single-family homebuilding shot up 14.3% in the Northeast. Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment soared 58.9% to a pace of 418,000 units. Overall housing starts jumped 15.8% to a rate of 1.499 million units, the highest level since last February. Starts dropped 4.4% from a year ago. An estimated 1.364 million housing units were started in 2024, down 3.9% from 2023.
U.S. Retail Sales Broadly Advance, Capping a Solid Holiday Season
December retail sales data showed the US economy ended 2024 growing at a solid pace amid questions over how quickly the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, increased by 0.7%, above economists' estimates for 0.4% sales growth.
Headline retail sales rose 0.4% in December, less than the 0.6% economists had expected, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in November were revised up to 0.8% from a prior reading that showed a 0.7% increase in the month, according to Census Bureau data. December sales, excluding auto and gas, rose 0.3%, below consensus estimates for a 0.4% increase. "All told, this year's holiday shopping season was even stronger than last year's, as a resilient labor market has continued to support household income growth," Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Live Updates: First Hostages Return To Israel As Gaza Cease-Fire Takes Hold - Reuters
- First UN Aid Trucks Enter Gaza As Ceasefire Takes Hold – France 24
- Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Gaza Ceasefire And Hostage Deal - Forbes
- Who Are The Israelis Released Or Recovered On The First Day Of The Ceasefire? - AP
- Israeli Far-Right Ministers Oppose Gaza Ceasefire Deal With Hamas - Reuters
- Watch: Cautious Celebrations In Gaza As Ceasefire Begins - BBC
- Shattered Homes, Uncertain Fates: Israel’s Hostage Families Anxiously Await Reunion - WSJ
- Incoming Trump Administration May Go 'As Far As War' With Iran, Expert Says – France 24
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Attacks Kyiv With Ballistic Missiles, Ukraine Says – NYT
- Russian Drone, Missile Strikes Kill At Least Three In Kyiv – France 24
- Ukraine's Oldest McDonald's Vows to Rebuild After Russian Missile Strike - Newsweek
- It Was ‘Unfortunate Suicide’ For A Lonely Russian Crew Conducting A One-Tank Assault In Eastern Ukraine - Forbes
- 'War Will Last As Long As Russia Does': Ukrainian Talk Of Victory Fades As Trump Returns - BBC
- How Ukraine's Grieving Women Are Finding Hope - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- US Rejects Venezuelan President Maduro’s Reelection, But Keeps Financial Lifeline For His Government – AP
- Xi And Trump Discuss Trade, TikTok In Phone Call, U.S. President-Elect Says – Nikkei Asia
- Rubio Vows To Oppose Thai Uyghur Deportations As US Secretary Of State - VOA
- Protesters Storm South Korea Court After It Extends Yoon's Detention - Reuters
- Kenya Deploys 217 More Police Officers To Haiti Under UN-Backed Mission To Tackle Gang Violence - AP
- TikTok's Cultural Footprint In America Is Huge. Why Is Its Disappearance Being Met With A Shrug? - NYT
- Planet-Warming Gas Levels Rose More Than Ever In 2024 - BBC
- Escalate To De-Escalate: How The World Will Deal With Trump’s Trade Offensive - Politico
- Former Canada Finance Minister Freeland Running To Replace Trudeau - Reuters
Policy and Politics
Trump Set to Start Slashing Regulations Across Government in Bonfire of Red Tape
President-elect Donald Trump has said he plans to embark next week on one of the most sweeping deregulatory drives in U.S. history, slashing at rules emanating from every channel of executive authority. Trump’s fellow Republicans say lighter regulation will unleash the economy. Some businesses and consumer groups are planning to push back in court, however, echoing legal disputes over executive actions on immigration, healthcare and the environment during Trump’s first term.
Trump’s rule-cutting plans are taking shape at the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, an outside advisory group led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Musk and Ramaswamy plan to work with Russell Vought, Trump’s pick to lead the Office of Management and Budget. Vought wants to dismantle what he calls the “administrative state,” and challenge career civil servants. As OMB director during the first Trump’ administration, Vought helped craft Schedule F, an executive order Trump issued in October 2020 to eliminate job protections for federal workers. The Biden administration blocked the order, but Trump is expected to reintroduce it with stricter return-to-office policies that could lead some federal workers to quit.
Trump Plans 100 Immediate Executive Actions. Here's What Could Be Coming.
President-elect Donald Trump intends to start his second White House term with a bang through a flurry of executive orders and directives that leave no doubt a major transformation is underway. Trump is planning to surpass the century mark in executive actions over his first few days of office after getting sworn in as the 47th president on Monday ‒ a moment he's called a "liberation day for America." "There will be over 100 executive actions ‒ commands to the bureaucracies to change their ways," Stephen Miller, Trump's incoming deputy chief of staff for policy, told Fox News last week.
The orders will undo President Joe Biden's policies ranging from climate to diversity and inclusion in the federal workforce while carrying out Trump's campaign promises to secure the southern border, expand domestic energy production and target transgender Americans. Many of the actions will be controversial and draw protests from Democrats and others on the political left. Some orders, particularly involving immigration, are expected to invite lawsuits. Here's a look at some of the executive actions that Trump and his top advisers have signaled the incoming president might take.
The New Ivies: Why Smart Kids And Their Cost Conscious Parents Flock To SUNY Binghamton
For freshman Brady Ellicott, New York’s Binghamton University was her Goldilocks school—bigger than Lehigh University in Pennsylvania and smaller than Virginia Tech, two other finalists on her shortlist. She enrolled this past fall to pursue an interdisciplinary major in philosophy, politics and law, and as a North Salem, New York state resident, she’ll get her degree for $32,044 a year—$20,080 less than what out-of-staters must fork over, $29,970 less than what Virginia Tech would cost her and $50,156 less than private Lehigh.
Binghamton is a gem in New York—and New Yorkers know it, but its renown doesn’t extend far past the east coast. “People can’t spell Binghamton—they think there’s a P,” Harvey Stenger, Binghamton’s president for the past 13 years, says with a laugh. But the university’s academic rigor rivals that of many other elite public universities. The median Binghamton student scores a 1430 on their SATs—within the 98th percentile—and higher than those at Ohio State, Rutgers and the University of Florida. Its graduates earn a median salary of $73,400 six years after graduating, and $136,600 10 years out. In April, Forbes named Binghamton one of the ten public New Ivies, alongside better-known powerhouses University of Michigan and the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Transition 2024
- Biden Leaves Office Nostalgic About Five-Decade Career, And Frustrated By How It Ended - CNN
- See The Inauguration Day Schedule For Trump's 2025 Presidential Swearing In – CBS News
- Severe Cold Forces Trump Inauguration Indoors, First Time In 40 Years - Reuters
- Voters Want MAGA Lite From Trump, WSJ Poll Finds - WSJ
- Trump Takes Credit for Defeating ISIS; Now He Must Fight Its Comeback - Newsweek
- Get Ready For Trump’s Executive Order Onslaught - Politico
- Trump to Begin Large-Scale Deportations Tuesday - WSJ
- IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel Announces Departure - Forbes
- 6 Dramatic Moments That Shaped Biden’s Presidency - The Hill
Health and Wellness
Today is ‘Blue Monday’ – Here Are Expert-Approved Ways To Be Happy All Year Round
While experts have noted that seasonal changes can impact our mental health, the concept of Blue Monday – originally a PR move to sell holidays – has well and truly been dispelled. Beyond the fact that there is no credible evidence to suggest a particular Monday in January is the most depressing day of the year, there is no set pattern for when we experience "good" and "bad" days, and everyone is different. It also runs the risk of conflating poor mental health and mental illness with temporarily feeling down.
Of course, those with mental health conditions should seek professional advice on how to manage their symptoms. But for those wishing to boost their mood, there are steps we can all take to help bolster our mental health, productivity and general outlook. Here are 16 expert-recommended ways to be happier and healthier in 2025 – all year round.
Industry News
NY Fed: Region’s Service Sector Contracts in January
Business activity fell slightly in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the January survey. The headline business activity index held steady at -5.6. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month and 28 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index remained negative at -21.8, pointing to an ongoing worsening business climate.
The employment index came in at -1.5, suggesting employment levels were little changed. The wages index rose four points to 33.8, indicating that wage increases picked up slightly. The prices paid index was similar to last month at 48.5, a sign that input price increases were little changed. The index for future business activity climbed for a sixth consecutive month, edging up two points to 30.3, and the index for the future business climate remained positive at 13.2, with the two readings suggesting that firms expect activity to improve and the business climate to be better than normal in six months. A solid increase in employment is expected in the months ahead.
Federal Government Awards CHIPS Act Funds To Upstate Factories
The U.S. Department of Commerce officially announced funding for three factories in upstate New York. It's awarding the company Corning in the North Country up to $32 million to expand production of glass products used in advanced semiconductor chips. Edwards Vacuum at the Genesee County STAMP Facility will get up to $18 million to support the construction of its dry pump facility, also vital to semiconductor manufacturing. U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer first announced the investment earlier this week.
And the federal government is increasing its investment in GlobalFoundries' Saratoga County facility by as much as $75 million as the company plans to expand its packaging of cutting-edge circuits. While the Biden administration and a Democratic Senate led by Schumer championed the CHIPS Act, Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce President Bob Duffy believes momentum will carry over with new leadership.
Read more at NY State of Politics
China’s Economy Expands 5% In 2024, Hitting Target Helped By Strong Exports, Stimulus Measures
China’s economy expanded at a 5% annual pace in 2024, slower than the year before but in line with Beijing’s target of “around 5%” growth, thanks to strong exports and recent stimulus measures. The economy picked up speed in the last quarter, the government reported Friday, growing 5.4% in October-December. Exports have surged as companies and consumers rush to beat potential tariff hikes President-elect Donald Trump may impose on Chinese goods.
Manufacturing was a strong engine for growth last year, with industrial output jumping 5.8% from a year earlier. Total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.5% at an annual rate. Exports expanded 7.1% in annual terms, while imports grew 2.3%. The world’s second largest economy has struggled with weaker consumer spending and resulting deflationary pressures.
Davos Forum Kicks Off This Week – Collaboration for the Intelligent Age is the Theme
The 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum takes place from 20-24 January in Davos, Switzerland. The meeting convenes under the title Collaboration for the Intelligent Age, accessible to the wider public with livestreamed sessions and an overview of the themes is available on the dedicated event website. The meeting brings together nearly 3,000 leaders from over 130 countries, and 350 governmental leaders, including 60 heads of states and governments, from all key regions. The meeting is organized under five areas:
- Reimagining Growth - Reviving and reimagining growth is critical to building stronger and more resilient economies.
- Industries in the Intelligent Age - Industries have had to adapt their business strategies to account for major geo-economic and technological shifts.
- Investing in People - Geoeconomic changes, the green transition and technological advancements are impacting everything from employment, skills and wealth distribution to healthcare, education and public services.
- Safeguarding the Planet - Innovative partnerships and dialogue that enable investments and the deployment of climate and clean technologies will be critical to make progress on global climate and nature goals, as well as to address the energy triangle of achieving equitable, secure and sustainable energy systems.
- Rebuilding Trust - In an increasingly complex and fast-moving world, societal divides have deepened, geopolitics is multipolar, and policy is shifting towards protectionism, hampering both trade and investment.
Learn more at World Economic Forum
DoD Contracts Boeing for Tanker Support
The U.S. Dept. of Defense announced a $43.6-million, U.S. Air Force award to Boeing Defense for three years of support to its KC-46 tanker and heavy transport aircraft. The order is structured as a modification to a previously awarded contract, and runs through December 2027. Boeing’s work under the award will be carried out at McConnell Air Force Base in Kansas; McGuire AFB in New Jersey; and Travis AFB in California.
The KC-46 is assembled at Boeing’s Everett, Wash., complex, which was among the operations hit by striking International Assn. of Machinist workers in September and October 2024. Recently, Boeing reported it delivered 10 of the aircraft in 2024. The KC-46 was developed by Boeing for military aerial refueling and strategic military transport, based on the twin-engine, wide-body 767 platform. Reportedly it can refuel all allied and coalition military aircraft compatible with international aerial refueling procedures, and can carry passengers, cargo and patients.
Read more at American Machinist
Car Plants In Europe, North America Face Closures In 2025, Gartner Says In Report
Several European and North American car factories are at risk of being closed or sold this year as automobile brands struggle with overcapacity and price competition, research and advisory firm Gartner said in a report on Thursday. Automakers will likely cut production capacity on the two continents in 2025 as they face emissions targets and tariffs, while China's electric vehicle (EV) dominance will increase due to its edge in software and electrification, the firm said.
Closures or sales are more likely in high-cost countries, where political and societal pressure will be offset by mounting competition, Gartner VP Analyst Pedro Pacheco told Reuters. "This is a little bit like a pressure cooker," Pacheco said. "The pressure increases, increases and... that will push the number of automakers to take more pragmatic decisions." Chinese brands could buy plants to overcome trade barriers, or open new factories in lower-cost European countries and free-trade partners like Morocco or Turkey, the firm predicted.
5 Automotive Topics To Watch When Trump Takes Office
Automotive industry stakeholders are facing regulatory uncertainty as they prepare for policies to change significantly after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. The incoming administration aims to tackle a wide agenda relevant to automakers, experts told Automotive Dive, including changes to policy surrounding global trade, emissions and vehicle standards. However, experts also noted the incoming president will face several obstacles.
Tariffs, Trade with Mexico & Canada, Fuel Economy & Emissions Standards, EV Tax Credits and Limits on Federal Power all will likely change to one degree or another with the new administration. Read on to learn more about some of the key topics for automakers to watch in the second Trump administration — and what industry stakeholders are expecting.
Nearly Half Of Workers Will Consider A Job Change If Ordered Back To The Office, Survey Finds
Nearly half (46%) of workers said they would consider leaving their job rather than return to full-time, in-office work if their current employer were to eliminate work-from-home options. Currently, 75% of the respondents have a flexible work arrangement, either working fully from home or adopting a hybrid model that includes some remote work days. In the debate over return-to-office policies, women show a slightly higher propensity (49%) to seek new employment compared to men (43%).
Younger workers—under 50—demonstrate a significantly higher willingness to change jobs (50%) if remote work is eliminated than their older counterpart (35%). Fully remote workers are more adamant about maintaining their work-from-home status (61%) compared to those with hybrid (47%) or occasional remote work arrangements (28%). Employees with low job satisfaction are more prone to considering job changes if remote work options are eliminated.