Skip to content

Member Briefing June 4, 2025

June 4, 2025

Posted By: Harold King in Daily Briefing,

Top Story

April JOLTS: Labor Demand Holds Up, While Turnover Remains Subdued

The April Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey showed that the labor market continues to tread water. Job openings rebounded slightly from an upwardly revised level in March, but at 7.4 million are nonetheless down 8% from their recent peak in November. Amid another increase in the ranks of the unemployed in April, the number of job openings per unemployed worker—a closely watched ratio by Fed officials as an indication of labor market slack—was little changed in April. The ratio continues to hover near its lowest level in a period of economic expansion since early 2018.

The ebb in labor demand was better reflected by the quits rate falling back to 2.0%, reversing the prior month's unexpected increase. The slide in voluntary separations coincided with an inch up in involuntary separations; the layoff & discharge rate edged up a tenth to 1.1%. The weakening in quits and perk up in layoffs will keep downward pressure on labor compensation growth despite consumers' renewed concerns about near-term inflation. On balance, the cooling in labor turnover is illustrative of firms responding to heightened uncertainty by pulling back on hiring, rather than preemptively laying off workers.

Read more at Wells Fargo

US Factory Orders Slump In April

New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods dropped sharply in April and business spending on equipment appeared to have lost momentum at the start of the second quarter as the boost from front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs faded. Factory orders fell 3.7% after an unrevised 3.4% jump in March, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday.

Commercial aircraft orders plunged 51.5% in April. Orders for motor vehicles, parts and trailers dropped 0.7%, helping to depress transportation equipment orders by 17.1%.
Orders for computers and electronic products gained 1.0%.
Electrical equipment, appliances and components slipped 0.3%.
Machinery orders rose 0.6%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.5%, matching March's decline.
The government also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, decreased 1.5% in April rather than 1.3% as estimated last month.
Shipments of these so-called core capital goods fell by an unrevised 0.1%.

Read more at The NAM

OECD Lowers Global Outlook As Trump Trade War Hits US Growth

Global economic growth is slowing more than expected only a few months ago as the fallout from the Trump administration's trade war takes a bigger toll on the U.S. economy, the OECD said on Tuesday, revising down its outlook. The global economy is on course to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said, trimming its estimates from March for growth of 3.1% this year and 3.0% next year.

The OECD forecast the U.S. economy would grow only 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year, assuming for the purpose of making calculations that tariffs in place mid-May would remain so through the rest of 2025 and 2026. For 2025, the new forecast marked a sizeable cut as the organisation had previously expected the world's biggest economy would grow 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year. In China, the fallout from the U.S. tariff hikes would be partly offset by government subsidies for a trade-in programme on consumer goods like mobile phones and appliances and increased welfare transfers, the OECD said. It estimated the world's second-biggest economy, which is not an OECD member, would grow 4.7% this year and 4.3% in 2026, little changed from previous forecasts for 4.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.

Read more at Reuters

Global Headlines

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Policy and Politics

Byrd Rule: The Senate Is Assessing The "Big Beautiful Bill" Line By Line To Eliminate Non-Budgetary Measures

It’s the Senate’s turn to dig into the GOP’s big tax and spending bill. This isn't hitting the Senate as a normal bill, which basically requires the support of at least sixty senators to pass. Instead, it's being treated as a "reconciliation package," which means it could pass the Senate with a simple majority. But there are rules for what kinds of things can go into reconciliation packages, including a big one called the Byrd rule. Pushing legislation through Congress using reconciliation lets it get around the filibuster, the 60-vote requirement for regular bills and shortens floor debate.

Now, the Senate is going through the House bill, looking for anything that might violate the Byrd rule, “section by section, line by line, word by word,” said Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress. “Both Democrats and Republicans,” he said, “are going through the entire bill and scrubbing it, prepping for their arguments before the parliamentarian.” The Senate parliamentarian is the arbiter of what does and does not make it through the so-called “Byrd Bath.” (Congress does love its puns.)

Read more at Marketplace

Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado Launches Campaign For Governor

After months of speculation, Lt. Gov Antonio Delgado officially entered the Democratic primary for governor on Monday, fresh off a public split with Gov. Kathy Hochul and a roundabout town hall tour of the state. Sources told City & State that Delgado’s nascent campaign has already reached out to important stakeholders and progressive groups like the New York Working Families Party, Citizen Action of New York and New York Communities for Change as he positions himself for a run to Hochul’s left.

Delgado is the first major candidate to officially challenge Hochul, though several other elected officials in both parties are publicly eyeing the position. Rep. Ritchie Torres has publicly weighed a primary run against Hochul, while on the Republican side, Reps. Elise Stefanik and Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman have all entertained the possibility of running for governor next year. Delgado now has roughly a year to close the wide gap between himself and Hochul, both when it comes to money and name recognition.

Read more at City & State

It's June In Albany: What's Still In Play As State Lawmakers Enter Final Legislative Sprint

It’s crunch time at the state capitol, as lawmakers work to get controversial legislative items like the NY HEAT Act, the Packaging Reduction and Recycling Infrastructure Act and a slate of prison and immigration reform measures over the finish line before leaders deliver their closing remarks and flee the capital city. With just days left in the legislative session, for Democrats the race is on to accomplish as much as possible on a compressed timeline thanks to the latest state budget in 15 years. For Republicans in the minority, the mission is to resist where necessary and find common ground where possible.

Asked her priorities, State Senate Finance Committee Chair Liz Krueger told Spectrum News 1 that the HEAT Act, which seeks to align the state’s utility policy with a transition away from natural gas, end the expansion of natural gas infrastructure, and seeks to cap utility rates at 6% of household income for many residential payers, will ultimately save rate payers once they have transitioned, arguing that the state and utility companies will primarily foot the bill for any transition costs. State Senator Mario Mattera slammed the bill as ‘putting the cart before the horse,’ and suggested it would wreak havoc for ratepayers and negatively impact those employed in jobs related to natural gas infrastructure. The Packaging Reduction and Recycling Infrastructure Act and Bigger Better Bottle Bill are also on the move as the clock ticks down.

Read more at NY State of Politics

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

Mental Health Stigma: Why There Is Still ‘A Lot Of Work’ To Do

In the five years since COVID first struck, employee mental health has increasingly become a core focus for HR. By 2021, Boston College research found that 91% of employers surveyed said they were expanding their investment in mental health offerings. However, the intensity of the efforts to reduce stigma that the early pandemic prompted has “leveled off,” Smolensky says. “I think that drive, that focus to help managers have those robust conversations, to undergo the training, to build the psychological safety that’s needed—that’s somewhat stabilized or even lost a little momentum,” she says.

Yet, risks to employee mental health haven’t. Research out last week from The Hartford revealed that 40% of Gen Z employees surveyed report feeling anxious or depressed—and 46% said stigma is preventing them from seeking care. Despite some concerns that discussing the stigma around mental health could drive it up even more, the ongoing mental health crisis necessitates a proactive approach, experts say. “Often, there is still a stigma that comes with an ongoing lack of understanding and a fear of talking about mental health in the workplace,” says Sara Fyfe, chief people officer of telehealth platform provider Iris Telehealth. “We have come a long way—but we still have a lot of work to do.”

Read more at HR Executive

Industry News

Trade War Updates

Trump’s Tariffs: Tracking The Status Of International Trade Actions

After vowing to implement wide-sweeping duties on the campaign trail, Trump has signed multiple executive orders enacting higher levies and initiated multiple trade reviews over the last few months, building on actions from his first term. Following the rollout of Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy on April 2, the landscape has continued to shift, with the U.S. and China temporarily suspending some duties while the White House pauses most other country-specific duties for 90 days.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tariffs have been met with legislative and judicial resistance, including an injunction from the United States Court of International Trade that would strike down duties enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The injunction is currently under appeal. To help companies keep up in this fluctuating environment, here’s a look at the current status of tariff-related actions taken by the U.S. and its trading partners since the beginning of 2025. Supply Chain Dive will keep updating this table as new information arises.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

The Commerce Department Recalled Funding For 6 Manufacturing Tech Hubs. What Happens Next?

Six U.S. technology and manufacturing hubs that were previously approved for a total of $210 million in federal grants must now reapply for the funding after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick decided to revamp a Biden-era investment program last month. On May 16, Lutnick issued a statement criticizing the prior administration’s selection of six applicants for Tech Hubs Program funding earlier this year, calling the process “rushed, opaque, and unfair.” As a result, he said another competition is in the works this summer, with plans to announce the winners in January 2026.

Despite the reversal of funds, the affected tech hubs are moving forward as planned with help from other supporters. Doug Merrill, regional innovation officer for the Vermont Gallium Nitride Tech Hub — one of the hubs that recently lost $23 million in funding for semiconductor development and workforce training — said in a statement that the hub is “eager to re-apply” as it moves forward with support from other members and partners.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Pentagon Pushes US Dronemakers To Innovate As Quickly As Ukraine Does

A new Pentagon program is pushing drone makers to continuously improve their systems based on troops’ feedback, hoping to spur innovation that moves as quickly as the war in Ukraine. Launched on Monday, the Defense Innovation Unit's Project GI initiative aims to embed frontline insights into a perpetual loop of design, testing, and deployment. It’s a deliberate effort to mimic how the Ukrainian military has out-innovated Russian forces by rapidly fielding and iterating drone technology under fire.

Emeneker, who has spent considerable time communicating with Ukrainian forces and other innovators, said arms makers need far closer and more constant contact—not with contracting officers but with operators on the front lines. One such company he spoke to is already incorporating feedback from Ukraine’s soldiers into its drone designs. “They have roving teams of engineers that go to their partner units constantly and get feedback within a kilometer or two of the front lines. They live with the guys,” he said.

Read more at Defense One

Meta Signs Nuclear Power Deal With Constellation Energy

Meta has signed a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy, continuing the wave of tech giants teaming up with the industry in order to meet the growing power needs of data centers. Beginning in June 2027, Meta will buy roughly 1.1 gigawatts of energy from Constellation’s Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois, which is the entire output from the site’s one nuclear reactor. The companies said the long-term agreement will support the continuing operation of the plant, as well as its relicensing. Without the commitment from Meta, the plant was in danger of closing when its zero-emissions credit, which it’s relied on since 2017, expired.

“We are proud to partner with Meta. ... They figured out that supporting the relicensing and expansion of existing plants is just as impactful as finding new sources of energy,” said Joe Dominguez, Constellation’s president and CEO. “Sometimes the most important part of our journey forward is to stop taking steps backwards.” Terms of the deal, which will also expand Clinton’s output by 30 megawatts, were not disclosed. The plant will not power Meta’s data centers directly — instead it will continue to provide power to the regional grid, while contributing to the tech giant’s goal of 100% clean electricity.

Read more at CNBC

Bristol Myers Squibb Signs $11bn Cancer Drug Deal With BioNTech

BioNTech and Bristol Myers Squibb have agreed to jointly develop and commercialize BioNTech’s BNT327 cancer-drug candidate in a deal potentially worth more than $11 billion to the German drugmaker. As part of the deal, Bristol Myers will make a $1.5 billion upfront payment to BioNTech, along with $2 billion in non-contingent anniversary payments through 2028, the companies said Monday. BioNTech is also eligible to receive up to $7.6 billion in development, regulatory and commercial milestones payments, they said.

Princeton, N.J., biopharmaceutical company Bristol Myers and BioNTech said they plan a broad clinical-development program to evaluate and advance BNT327 across numerous solid tumor types, adding that they will equally split joint development and manufacturing costs, along with global profits and losses.BioNTech’s BNT327 is currently being evaluated in multiple studies, including Phase 3 trials, as a first-line treatment in extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer and non-small-cell lung cancer.

Read more at the WSJ

Williams International To Build $1B Aviation Engine Plant In Florida

Boeing supplier Williams International is spending more than $1 billion to establish a gas-powered turbine engine manufacturing site in Okaloosa County, Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced last week. The 1-million-square-foot manufacturing complex will create 336 jobs, with an average annual wage of $69,434, according to county commissioner documents. Construction on the company’s first 250,000-square-foot facility is expected to begin later this month due to “pressing customer demands.”

The site will be built in three phases. Williams’s first facility is set to be completed in late 2026, followed by another 250,000-square-foot plant expected to be completed in Q4 2028 and a 500,000-square-foot facility set for completion between 2035 and 2036.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Ford Reports 16% Sales Increase In May Amid Employee Pricing, Tariffs

Ford Motor on Tuesday reported a 16.3% year-over-year U.S. sales increase for May, as the automaker continues an employee pricing program amid rising tariff costs and vehicle price increases. Sales for the Detroit automaker were led by a 17.2% increase in purchases of its vehicles with traditional internal combustion engines, as well as a roughly 29% jump in hybrid models. Those gains offset a 25% drop in sales of all-electric vehicles — notably its electric F-150 — compared with May 2024.

May marked the third consecutive year-over-over, double-digit sales increase for the automaker, led the past two months by its employee pricing program that’s continuing through the Fourth of July weekend. Cox forecast the May seasonally adjusted annual rate, or sales pace, to be about 16 million, up slightly from a year earlier but a significant decline from March’s sales pace of 17.8 million and April’s 17.3 million. Sales volume in May is expected to rise 3.2% from last year and 2.5% from last month, assisted by one additional selling day, according to Cox.

Read more at CNBC

Akio Toyoda Plans $33 Billion Buyout Bid to Tighten Grip on Toyota’s Founding Firm

Toyota Industries Corp., the original company that brought forth the world’s biggest carmaker, will be privatized for ¥4.7 trillion ($33 billion) by a group led by Akio Toyoda — a move that could hand the founding family a stronger grip on Japan’s biggest business empire for significantly less than its current market value.

The deal, first reported by Bloomberg in April, would rank among the biggest buyouts on record anywhere and could resolve a parent-child structure that has been criticized in the past. It would also align with the Japanese government’s efforts to encourage large companies to unwind cross-held shares with subsidiaries and other businesses. At the same time, a takeover may give Toyoda greater influence over the venerable automaker founded by his grandfather.

Dealing With Surging Power Prices

The “capacity cost” of electricity is rising, very high. Capacity refers to the amount of electricity generating capacity that is instantly available from the grid to meet power demands from consumers, and it is dwindling to concerning levels across the grid. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has been warning about this trend for years. Two of the largest grid operators, PJM and MISO have been doing the same, and both grid operators saw dramatic price increases in their most recent capacity auctions.

Basically, the amount of electric generation is decreasing while electricity demand is increasing. Electric grid operators run the grid and wholesale power markets in their territories. Utilities purchase power from the wholesale market when they need it, and the base price charge is determined when the grid operator conducts a wholesale price auction. The number of generation assets available has been decreasing steadily, for many reasons. Of particular concern is the dwindling number of “baseload” generators – those that can run essentially all the time, and called upon at short notice to add power to the grid. Large coal- and natural gas-based power plants account for much of the baseload power currently available, but many of those units have been retired – without equivalent alternative power sources ready for use. And that trend continues.

Read more at Foundry Magazine

Member Briefing June 3, 2025June 3, 2025 Member Briefing June 5, 2025June 5, 2025