Member Briefing March 12, 2025
NFIB SURVEY: Small Business Optimism Recedes in February
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7. This is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading. Key findings include:
- The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37%.
- Twelve percent of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down five points from January. This is the largest monthly decrease since April 2020.
- Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from January and now just below labor quality as the top issue. The last time it was this low was in October 2021.
- The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 10 points from January to a net 32%. This is the largest monthly increase since April 2021, and the third highest in the survey’s history. The percent of owners lowering their prices is 10 points lower than it was one year ago.
- Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose three points to 12%, only one point below the survey’s highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. The last time labor costs ranked this high was in February 2023.
- The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 24%, up one point from January.
- A net 2% of owners reported that their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts (down one point). The last time this reading was this low was in February 2022.
- Twenty-four percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down three points from January and the lowest since May 2022.
JOLTS: Job Opening Rise to 7.74 Million in January
Job openings increased in January, providing at least a momentary sign of stability as questions linger over labor market stability, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that postings rose to 7.74 million on the month, up 232,000 from December. The tally kept the ratio of openings to available workers around 1.1 to 1. Much of the gain came from retail, which saw an increase of 143,000 available positions, while finance gained 122,000. Professional and business services saw a decrease of 122,000 and leisure and hospitality fell by 46,000.
Quits, a measure of worker confidence in the ability to move to other jobs, moved higher to 3.27 million, an increase of 171,000. While job openings were increasing, hires and layoffs held basically flat. Actions to pare the federal government workforce by the newly created Department of Government Efficiency advisory board, led by Elon Musk, were not captured in the January data.
There were 462,000 openings Manufacturing in January Up from 431,000 in December but down from 556 in January 2024. There were 332,000 manufacturing hires, up from 300,000 in December but off from 384,000 in January 2024. Total separation in the sector were 324,000 up from 315,000 in December and down from 374 in January 2024.
Ontario Suspends U.S. Electric Surcharge, Says Lutnick Agrees To Trade Talks
Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Tuesday said he was temporarily suspending his province’s planned 25% surcharge on electricity exported to the United States after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick agreed to renewed trade talks. Ford said that he and Lutnick “had a productive conversation about the economic relationship between the United States and Canada” earlier Tuesday.
“We have both agreed, let cooler heads prevail,” Ford told reporters, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump escalated an already hot trade war by saying he would raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%. He said Lutnick agreed to meet with Ford and the U.S. trade representative in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday to discuss a renewed United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- US Cuts Force UN Rights Office To Shut Some Work, Including For Iraq Torture Victims– Reuters
- Iran Says It Never Got Trump Letter - Newsweek
- Syria’s New Government Strikes Deal To Integrate Powerful Kurdish Rival In Landmark Agreement - CNN
- UN Official Accuses Israel Of Weaponising Aid To Gaza - BBC
- Trump Envoy Further Inflames Israel’s Concerns About Direct Talks With Hamas - WSJ
- Ukraine Fires Back at Elon Musk Over X Cyberattack Claim: 'Very Bad Timing' - Newsweek
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- U.S. to Restore Military Support to Ukraine After It Agrees to Cease-Fire - WSJ
- Russia 'Offering No Concessions' in Ukraine Peace Talks With Trump: ISW - Newsweek
- Why Ukraine Hopes Trump Minerals Deal Will Win Back US Support - BBC
- Ukraine Hits Moscow With Biggest Ever Drone Attack - WSJ
- How NATO Without US Stacks Up Against Russia - Newsweek
- In Rare Meeting Without U.S. Ally, Western Army Chiefs Meet To Show Ukraine Unity - Reuters
- Ukrainian Concessions ‘The Only Way’ To End Russia’s War, Rubio Says - Politico
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Man Arrested On Suspicion Of Manslaughter After Fiery Crash In North Sea – France 24
- Uganda Deploys Troops To South Sudan To Secure Capital - Military Chief - BBC
- Philippines’ Former President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested After ICC Warrant—What To Know - Forbes
- Welfare Vs. Warfare: France’s Political Parties Divided Over Cash For Defense - Politico
- Volcano Eruption In Guatemala Forces Hundreds To Evacuate - CNN
- China Tightens Trade Rules As Canadian Tariffs Spark Price Volatility – Reuters
- Why Was China’s No 3 Official Zhao Leji Missing At The End Of ‘Two Sessions’? - SCMP
- Greenlanders Vote In Election Dominated By Trump's Control Pledge - Reuters
- NORAD Jets Train To Catch Russian and Chinese Bombers Over Alaska: Video – Newsweek
Policy and Politics
House Republicans Pass Bill To Avert Government Shutdown
The House on Tuesday passed a funding bill to avert an end-of-the-week government shutdown, teeing up the measure for consideration in the Senate. The chamber cleared the continuing resolution (CR) in a largely party-line 217-213 vote, with just one Democrat — Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) — bucking his party’s leaders to back the measure. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was the lone GOP “no” vote. The legislation would fund the government through Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year, while boosting funds for defense programs and imposing cuts to nondefense funding. Current funding expires at 11:59 p.m. Friday.
While several Senate Democrats have slammed the legislation — raising concerns about spending cuts included and instead pitching a shorter stopgap to allow more time for bipartisan negotiations on full-year bills — a number of vulnerable members are withholding judgment, weighing their concerns with the bill against the political reality of potentially forcing a shutdown.
Trump Says He Will Raise Tariffs On Canada Metals To 50% As Trade War Escalates
US President Donald Trump has said he will double the tariffs he previously announced on Canadian steel and aluminium imports into the US, taking the levies to 50% in total. In the latest twist in a deepening trade war, Trump said it was in retaliation for 25% tariffs Ontario placed on electricity it sends to northern US states. Trump said if tariffs including those on agricultural products were not dropped, he would hike taxes on the car industry, "which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada".
Ontario premier Doug Ford said: "Until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, we won't back down." Ford added in a post on X that Trump had "launched an unprovoked trade and tariff war with America's closest friend and ally". Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said his tariffs would go into effect on Wednesday morning, and that he would declare "a national emergency on electricity" in those states.
Trump Administration Proposes Changes To Affordable Care Act That Would Shorten Open Enrollment, End 'Dreamer' Eligibility
President Donald Trump’s administration is proposing a docket of changes to enrollment in the Affordable Care Act, looking to clamp down on some policies aimed at boosting accessibility from former President Joe Biden’s time in office. Among the top modifications being pursued by the administration through a proposed rule released Monday is a shortening of the annual open enrollment period by a month, closing the window on Dec. 15 instead, as well as ending coverage eligibility for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, known as “Dreamers." The Biden-era rule to expand access to the ACA to "Dreamers" was expected to apply to 147,000 immigrants but was already temporarily blocked by a judge in 19 states.
Meanwhile, to specifically take on what the administration called a “dramatic uptick” in reports of people enrolled in the Affordable Care Act without their knowledge, it is looking to add a requirement that enrolled individuals pay a $5 monthly premium if they do not confirm or update their eligibility determination. Other proposed changes include ending a monthly special enrollment period for those with household incomes below 150% of the federal poverty level and beefing up requirements to verify eligibility. In a release on the proposal from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, the administration said the goal of the changes is to address improper enrollments in marketplace coverage and protect taxpayer dollars. The administration estimates its alterations would reduce federal spending on premium tax credits by $11 billion to $14 billion by 2027.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Hochul Expected To Slow-Walk Election To Replace Stefanik – Semafor
- Department of Education to Lay Off Half of Staff - AP
- Senate Democrats Leery Of Blocking GOP Bill Fear Shutdown Politics Have Changed – The Hill
- Senate Confirms Lori Chavez-Deremer As Labor Secretary - Politico
- Trump’s Approval Dips Amid Concerns Over Economy: Poll – The Hill
- White House Says Trump Won’t Cut Social Security, Medicare After Musk Remarks – The Hill
- Federal Judge Blocks Deportation Of Palestinian Activist Mahmoud Khalil - NDTV
- Department Of Education Investigating 60 Colleges And Universities Over Antisemitism Claims - CNN
- Federal Judge Says Musk’s DOGE Must Make Records Public - Forbes
- USDA Cancels $1B In Local Food Purchasing For Schools, Food Banks - Politico
- Trump Vows To ‘Lead The Charge’ To Oust Massie – The Hill
- Elon Musk Spotlights Cost Of Federal Entitlements Amid Fear Of Cuts To Programs - CNN
Health and Wellness
Employees Still Not Talking About Mental Health
A recent Workplace Mental Health Poll from The National Alliance on Mental Illness found that while 81% of people will discuss mental health with a close friend at work, and 57% will talk to their manager, only 39% feel comfortable sharing with HR, and less than three in ten (28%) would share with senior leadership. For those who say they feel uncomfortable discussing mental health at work, the top five reasons include:
- Stigma or judgment around mental health,
- Lack of discussion from colleagues,
- Not wanting to appear weak,
- Fear of losing opportunities or retaliation,
- Job's effect on their mental health.
Even with increased awareness of mental health concerns in general, there is still stigma around it. The groups poll last year, NAMI-Ipsos found that "most Americans believe it’s appropriate to talk about mental health at work but may not be prepared or feel comfortable to do so." To address this the NAMI has created a Stigma Free Workplace Initiative. This initiative offers both employers and employees no-cost resources and tools to prioritize mental well-being. This include downloads of presentations.
Industry News
Steep Drop in Machine Tool Demand In January
Domestic manufacturers reduced their new orders for metal cutting, forming, and fabricating equipment by -29.8% from December to January, according to the latest U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report. The $357.3 million total for the month is marked by a sharp decline in demand from several industrial sectors that typically drive ordering activity for machine tools and similar capital equipment, as summarized in the monthly report by AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology. However, AMT noted that the January 2025 order volume is 5.7% higher than the comparable figure from 2024, and 16.2% higher than the average January order volume. The trade association suggested that, “After the shallow downturn of the last two years, order activity – measured both in value and units – seems to have found a bottom.”
Aerospace sector demand in January fell almost -50% below the December level, but also measured 11% higher than the January 2024 figure. The automotive sector demand for machining equipment fell almost 66.0% below the December result. In contrast to these examples, demand for machining equipment from the medical manufacturing sector rose in January to the highest level since September 2023.
Read more at American Machinist
Logistics Tech Startups Are Back in Demand as Companies Navigate Tariffs
A crop of startups that arose in the pandemic to help address hamstrung supply chains is having another moment, as companies confront an array of U.S. tariffs whose parameters and start dates seem to be in perpetual motion. For these startups, that upheaval has been a boon. Chicago-based Project44, for instance, in recent weeks has helped large multinational customers in retail and other sectors customize software to determine whether shipments will arrive before or after a tariff date, and then break down the costs of trying to get ahead of the levy versus paying the extra cost, the company said.
Another supply-chain analytics startup, New York-based Altana, launched a service in January that it calls a “tariff simulator,” which allows clients to quantify the financial impact of tariffs and find alternative suppliers globally that might not be subject to tariffs. “There’s definitely a ton of demand,” Co-Founder and CEO Evan Smith said. “There’s a lot of big shocks in the system and that tends to be very helpful for our business.” Of the eight large enterprise customers Altana has closed deals with since releasing the software, five have come in the past week and a half, Smith said.
No Reprieve From Steel Tariffs in Sight Despite Lobbying Efforts
The White House granted a temporary reprieve for many of its tariffs on Canada and Mexico last week, but a similar pause seems less likely for revamped global steel and aluminum tariffs set to go into effect today. President Trump’s team has repeatedly said there would be no exceptions or exemptions from the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. In internal discussions and conversations with industry and labor groups, the administration appears to be sticking to that line, at least for now, say people familiar with conversations.
The tariff move this week would increase levies on aluminum and tighten loopholes for existing tariffs. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminum in 2018. During his first term, and subsequently under the Biden administration, the U.S. negotiated exclusions and duty-free quotas for allied nations—including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Ukraine, the EU, and the U.K.—as well as a litany of individual companies that received exemptions for specific products. Last month, Trump issued a proclamation increasing the aluminum tariffs from 10% to 25%, effective March 12. He directed the Commerce secretary to end all exemptions to the steel and aluminum levies on that date, and prohibited new ones. He also ordered Commerce to widen the scope of steel and aluminum products covered by the tariffs.
Nissan Taps ‘Real Car Guy’ Ivan Espinosa As New CEO
Nissan said Tuesday that Ivan Espinosa, its chief planning officer, would take the helm from April 1, ending weeks of speculation over who will succeed Makoto Uchida as leader of the troubled Japanese carmaker. Uchida had been under pressure to step down following a worsening earnings performance at Japan’s third-largest automaker and the collapse of merger talks with Honda (HMC). It was not clear whether the appointment of Espinosa, 46, would put those talks back on the table or open up the possibility of investment from another partner.
Espinosa, a Mexican citizen who joined Nissan in 2003, has spent much of his career in Mexico but has also held positions in Southeast Asia and Europe. He has overseen product planning and development initiatives and managed the automaker’s global product strategy and portfolio. He has been in his current role since April 2024, a job he took up as part of a shake-up aimed at accelerating the automaker’s pivot to electric vehicles. “I think it sends a good signal that Nissan wants to give product a higher priority because the Nissan brand has been drifting for a long time and not really standing for that much, and so putting a strong product guy in charge, that could be interesting.” said Christopher Richter, Japan auto analyst at brokerage CLSA.
Boeing Preparing To Deliver F-15EX Lot 2, Planning Additional Capabilities
Boeing is preparing to deliver Lot 2 of the F-15EX's US Air Force (USAF) order, Robert Novotny, the company's executive director for F-15EX business development, told Janes on 5 March at the Air & Space Forces Association's Air Warfare Symposium. Lots 1A and 1B wrapped up delivery in June 2024, with eight F-15EXs delivered. Of those, six went to developmental testing at Eglin Air Force Base (AFB), Florida, while two were delivered to the type's first operational base in Portland, Oregon, for operation by the 142nd Wing of the Oregon Air National Guard (ANG).
“EX [tail number] nine is the first jet of Lot 2 that flew on [3 March],” Novotny said. “I'm fully expecting EX nine to [be stationed in] Portland.” Tail numbers 10 and 11 are set to follow, both all but constructed and awaiting flight-testing. The delivery process typically requires three or four flights: two Boeing flights and one or two from the US Defense Contract Management Agency, which accepts aircraft on behalf of the Department of Defense, Novotny said. Both tail numbers are expected to head to the Oregon ANG.
Boeing Deliveries Rise 63% In February From A Year Earlier
Boeing said on Tuesday it delivered 44 aircraft in February, up from 27 in the same month a year ago, as it works to stabilize and then increase production of its 737 MAX and 787 models. It was only slightly behind January when the planemaker's 45 deliveries were the company's best for a single month since 2023. In February, Boeing's deliveries included 32 of its best-selling 737 MAX single-aisle jets and five 787 widebody planes.
Aircraft deliveries are closely watched by Wall Street because planemakers collect the majority of their payment when they hand over jets to customers. The U.S. planemaker booked 13 gross orders, plus eight cancellations, for a net total of five orders in February. The 13 new orders were all for 737 MAX jets. The cancellations included Florida-based cargo carrier Western Global Airlines abandoning orders for two 777 freighters. Through the first two months of the year, Boeing booked 41 net orders, compared to 65 net orders for its European rival Airbus.
Metal Additive Manufacturing Is Finding A Role In The Design And Development Components For Military And Defense Technologies.
The New Zealand-based enterprise, Foundry Lab, developed and markets the Digital Metal Casting system that has been adopted now by the New Jersey Innovation Institute (a research-linked “accelerator”,) NJII is installing the production package as part the COMET maker-space operation that its affiliate New Jersey Institute of Technology operates in partnership with the U.S. Army DevCom Armaments Center, a primary R&D location for that military branch. DMC has been drafted.
Foundry Lab has been portrayed as metalcasting innovator, but by locating at COMET it will be among the additive manufacturing/3D printing options at the service of researchers and prototypers working on critical components for emerging applications, particularly in defense and health care technologies. AM/3DP is a clearer depiction of DMC’s value and purpose. The connection to the defense manufacturing sector is significant because those interests have been tuned to the advantages of additive manufacturing for much of the past decade. AM, and particularly metal 3D printing, is understood as a route to overcoming obstacles like replacement of out-of-production components, or remote repair of systems, which are major concerns in the defense supply chain.
Gas Prices Drop For Third Consecutive Week—As Tariff Uncertainty Swirls
The average price of gasoline in the U.S. dropped for the third straight week, falling to $3.03 per gallon, according to GasBuddy—reaching the lowest average price for the month of March since 2021, as analysts cite uncertainty over the state of the economy, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The price fell 0.6 cents from last week’s average of $3.04, and is down 8.9 cents from one month ago and 36.7 cents from a year ago, hitting the lowest March price in four years, GasBuddy reported Monday.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a press release that caution around potential tariffs is “likely having a moderate impact” on prices. While some analysts have predicted tariffs on imported Canadian oil could push prices higher in some U.S. regions, oil prices are also closely linked to the state of the wider economy: If tariffs lead to lower economic growth, demand for oil could sink as fewer people travel and buy goods, causing prices to fall. De Haan also said the news that OPEC+, a coalition of oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will “gradually begin restoring oil production after nearly two years of cuts” has added downward pressure on oil prices.