Member Briefing March 4, 2025
Trump's Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Added Duties on China Take Effect
President Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect first thing Tuesday. Canada responded with plans to rapidly impose 25% tariffs on nearly $100 billion of U.S. imports. The U.S. also introduced an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports overnight, adding to a 10% levy imposed a month ago, and other existing duties. China swiftly announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. food and farm goods, and other measures against American companies. Beijing also filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization challenging the new tariffs.
U.S. stocks fell Monday after Trump confirmed that the tariffs would go ahead. Global stock markets largely fell Tuesday, while U.S. stock futures were muted. Economists say American importers and businesses will likely pass along the cost of tariffs to consumers, meaning individuals are likely to see higher prices at grocery stores and car dealerships
ISM Stays Above 50, Thanks to Lift from Long Wait Times
U.S. manufacturing was steady in February, but a measure of prices at the factory gate jumped to near a three-year high and it was taking longer for materials to be delivered, suggesting that tariffs on imports could soon hamper production. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3 last month from 50.9 in January, which marked the first expansion since October 2022.
New orders fell 6.5 points to 48.6, inventories remain in contraction at 49.9 and employment fell 2.7 points to return to contraction territory at 47.6 in February. These three components all feed into the headline index which was only able to boast a reading north of 50 by virtue of two other components. The production index fell 1.8 points, but was still expansionary at 50.7, but the real lift came from supplier deliveries which shot up to 54.5. This was the broadest indication of wait-times since the supply chain disruption year of 2022. Longer wait times for supplier deliveries are additive because in normal times such a development is associated with a factory sector that cannot keep up with demand. Since that is not an accurate characterization of what is contributing to wait times today, the "expansionary" signal from the ISM should, for this month at least, be taken with a massive grain of salt.
Poll: Manufacturers Loathe Tariffs
Manufacturing leaders expressed net disapproval of President Donald Trump’s performance in office so far, especially the threat of tariffs that could disrupt businesses. And those who dislike the president’s actions are very vocal about it. In a poll conducted by IndustryWeek following Trump’s first month in office, nearly 53% of 1,100+ responses were "negative" or "very negative." And those holding poor views of the president had more to say than those applauding his performance.
Disgruntlement and dismay on tariffs lit up the comments section, with 86 thumbs-down tariff-related comments, and only five thumbs up. One sample comment: Trump and company are all over the board with a lot of policies that will affect manufacturing and especially consumer behavior—which directly affects manufacturing. Without a consistent direction it is hard to forecast production goals and leads to inaction. Nature hates a void and lack of direction on manufacturing is no different. Further, tariffs in particular, as well as labor uncertainties, contribute to inaction. It would be helpful if the President and his team would take a hands-off approach to the economy. — Respondent in plastics manufacturing, “somewhat negative” on Trump.
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips 0.2% In January, Up 3.3% Year on Year
The Commerce Department said construction spending slipped by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of $2.193 trillion in January after climbing by 0.5 percent to a revised rate of $2.196 trillion in December. Economists had expected construction spending to come in unchanged. The unexpected dip by construction spending came as spending on private construction fell by 0.2 percent to an annual rate of $1.686 trillion.
- Spending on residential construction slid by 0.4 percent to an annual rate of $932.7 billion.
- Spending on non-residential construction was virtually unchanged at an annual rate of $753.3 billion.
- Spending on public construction inched up by 0.1 percent to an annual rate of $506.6 billion.
- Spending on educational construction decreased by 0.4 percent to an annual rate of $109.8 billion.
- Spending on highway construction climbed by 0.6 percent to an annual rate of $145.0 billion.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Egypt's Alternative To Trump's 'Gaza Riviera' Aims To Sideline Hamas – Reuters
- Hamas Responds to Latest U.S. Gaza Ceasefire Proposal - Newsweek
- Netanyahu Thanks Trump For Weapon Support To 'Finish The Job' Against Iran Axis – France 24
- Why Arab Leaders Are Struggling to Agree on Hamas’s Future Role in Gaza - WSJ
- Arab States And UN Condemn Gaza Aid Blockade By Israel - BBC
- Trump’s Vision for Gaza Revives an Idea Once Reviled in Israel - WSJ
- Israeli Fire Kills Two Palestinians In Gaza Amid Impasse Over Ceasefire - Reuters
- Israeli Police Say One Killed In Bus Station Knife Attack - BBC
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
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Trump Pauses All US Military Aid To Ukraine After Clash With Zelenskiy – Reuters
- How Not to End the War in Ukraine – Foreign Affairs
- Ukraine Confirms Mass Casualty Russian Missile Strike on Military Range - Newsweek
- Ukraine Is Scrambling To Find Fresh Fighters – The Economist
- Can Ukraine-US Relations Be Repaired? - Politico
- Zelensky Says Ukraine Ready To Sign Minerals Deal With United States – France 24
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy Says He Can Salvage Relationship With US - Reuters
- Starmer Unveils 4-Step Ukraine Plan: ‘We Are At A Crossroads In History’ – The Hill
- UK, France Propose Partial One-Month Ukraine Truce, Paris Says - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Defense Promises But Scant Detail As Europe Enters Decisive Week – Politico
- The ‘Hustling Expert’ Behind Argentina’s $250 Million Crypto Scandal - WSJ
- US Aircraft Carrier Arrives In South Korea After North Korea Test-Fired Missiles - Politico
- One Dead After Car Drives Into Crowd In German City Of Mannheim, Police Say - Reuters
- King Charles Popularity Sinks to Lowest of His Reign - Newsweek
- Trump’s Embrace of Russia Rocks NATO Alliance - WSJ
- Thousands Evacuated As Japan's Biggest Fire In Decades Continues To Burn - BBC
- German Chancellor-In-Waiting Promises Swift Moves On Defence, Investors Sniff Bonanza - Reuters
- How China Is Challenging the West With Its Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Plan – WSJ
Policy and Politics
What You Need To Know About Trump's Address To Joint Session Of Congress
President Trump will deliver an address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, his first since returning to the White House six weeks ago. The speech comes as the administration is seeking to dramatically reshape the federal government, crack down on illegal immigration and redefine the U.S. role abroad. President Donald Trump arrives to deliver the State of the Union address in the chamber of the U.S. House of Representatives on Feb. 04, 2020.
He will address Congress at a time when Republicans hold a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Despite those majorities, progress on delivering legislation to fund the president's key campaign promises has been slow going. Here's what you need to know ahead of Tuesday night's speech. Including what time it starts, what he is likely to talk about ans what the Democrat response is likely to be.
Ways And Means Committee To Start Drafting Plans For Enacting Trump Tax Agenda Next Week
House Ways and Means Republicans are tentatively scheduled on March 10 and 12 to start drafting the GOP’s party-line bill enacting President Donald Trump's tax agenda. In the sessions, which are anticipated to last all day, committee members will begin to hash out how they will attempt to extend Trump's expiring tax cuts from his first term and enact his campaign promises such as eliminating tax on tips and overtime work. But tax writers will have a narrow window to enact those priorities because the House budget set an upper limit of $4.5 trillion on the costs of the legislation.
Ways and Means committee Republicans have floated various proposals, including a cap on certain deductions for companies, in order to tamp down on the costs. Tax writers have indicated they may have to implement some tax policies on a short-term basis to fit everything in. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are expected to come up with their own plans that would spend more to achieve the president's wishes. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the top tax writer in the Senate, have said they want to treat an extension of Trump's expiring tax cuts as costing nothing. That approach would provide leeway for Republicans to enact Trump's other proposals. However, House Ways and Means chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has expressed concern that the scoring method would be rejected by the Senate's parliamentarian, the chamber's independent legislative referee.
Americans Split Over Musk, Federal Workforce Cuts: Survey
Americans in a new survey are split over their views of Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) the tech billionaire leads as well as federal workforce cuts during the opening weeks of the second Trump administration. In the CBS News/YouGov poll, 27 percent of respondents said they believe “Elon Musk and the DOGE task force” must wield “a lot” of influence “over the spending and operations of U.S. government agencies.”
When it comes to “deciding whether federal workers should be dismissed or fired,” 52 percent of those in the CBS News/YouGov poll said that they believe Musk and DOGE are giving “too much” input while 15 percent said they believe it is “not enough” and 33 percent said it is just “right.” The CBS News/YouGov poll of 2,311 respondents was conducted from Feb. 26 to 28. It has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Education Department Offers $25K For Staffers To Quit — The Hill
- Trump Delays De Minimis’ End For Canada, Mexico Products – Supply Chain Dive
- Elon Musk Accused of Social Security 'Disinformation Campaign' - Newsweek
- RFK Jr. Says Texas Measles Outbreak A ‘Call To Action’ – The Hill
- Democrats Plan A Different Kind Of Response To Trump’s Big Speech - Politico
- Inside Trump’s Federal Worker Firings – The Hill
- Hegseth Orders Pause In US Cyber-Offensive Against Russia - BBC
- Pete Hegseth Issues Update to Pentagon on Elon Musk's DOGE Order - Newsweek
- Frustrations Mount As Stefanik Stuck In Limbo — Even After House Clears Hurdle – The Hill
- Powerful Teachers Union Head Faces Reelection Test Amid Contentious Mayoral Primary - Politico
- The Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
The Science Behind Long COVID Brain Fog
Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection or PASC, commonly known as Long COVID, has been recognized as a significant public health concern. Among its many symptoms, "brain fog" is one of the most reported and debilitating cognitive impairments, affecting memory, concentration, and executive function. Studies suggest that memory problems and cognitive dysfunction occur in up to 88% of individuals with Long COVID, regardless of their age or the severity of their initial infection.
Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the underlying mechanisms of brain fog in Long COVID patients. These include neurological, inflammatory, and vascular factors. The interplay between these factors suggests that brain fog is a multifaceted condition, influenced by immune responses, brain metabolism, and oxygen delivery. Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 can impact the brain indirectly through neuroinflammation and altered neurochemical signaling. Numerous studies have demonstrated using animal models that even mild COVID-19 infections can lead to sustained microglial activation, which disrupts neural networks and impairs cognitive function. Research also indicates that brain fog may be linked to persistent changes in neurotransmitter levels, particularly involving dopamine and serotonin. These neurotransmitters play essential roles in cognition, attention, and emotional regulation.
Read more at Medical and Life Science News
Industry News
Shop Class Revival - Hands-On Skills Are Staging A Comeback At Leading-Edge School Districts
In America’s most surprising cutting-edge classes, students pursue hands-on work with wood, metals and machinery, getting a jump on lucrative old-school careers. School districts around the U.S. are spending tens of millions of dollars to expand and revamp high-school shop classes for the 21st century. They are betting on the future of manual skills overlooked in the digital age, off. With higher-education costs soaring and white-collar workers under threat by generative AI, the timing couldn’t be better.
In a suburb of Madison, Wis., Middleton High School completed a $90 million campus overhaul in 2022 that included new technical-education facilities. The school’s shop classes, for years tucked away in a back corridor, are now on display. Fishbowl-style glass walls show off the new manufacturing lab, equipped with computer-controlled machine tools and robotic arms. Interest in the classes is high. About a quarter of the school’s 2,300 students signed up for at least one of the courses in construction, manufacturing and woodworking at Middleton High, one of Wisconsin’s highest-rated campuses for academics.
In Shipbuilding, the U.S. Is Tiny and Rusty
Asian shipyards churn out hundreds of big boxships and oil tankers a year. The U.S. is lucky if it can finish more than one each year. It has been that way for decades. Few major American shipyards remain and they now mostly build or repair vessels for the U.S. Navy. Those that do produce new commercial ships mostly make small vessels for U.S. companies operating on domestic routes, not the giant containerships and ocean vessels that underpin global trade.
The Trump administration has floated a proposal that would seek to reverse the trend by imposing port fees on Chinese-built ships and requiring some U.S. exports to move on U.S.-built ships. The idea faces both labor and financial challenges. American shipyards employed more than one million people during World War II, but in the decades that followed the U.S. ceded much of the market to other countries. The number of welders, engineers and other people building boats and ships hasn’t reached 200,000 since the early 1980s, though the numbers have ticked up in recent years thanks to military contracts.
Chinese Buyers Are Ordering Nvidia’s Newest AI Chips, Defying U.S. Curbs
Chinese buyers are circumventing U.S. export controls to order Nvidia’s NVDA 3.97%increase; green up pointing triangle latest artificial-intelligence chips, illustrating the challenges the Trump administration will face in choking off cutting-edge American technology. Traders in the country are selling computing systems with Nvidia’s Blackwell chips installed by routing them through third parties in nearby regions. Some sellers promise buyers delivery within six weeks.
The transactions are the latest example of how U.S. restrictions barring China from buying high-end AI processors have failed to stop the trade. Since 2022, Washington has imposed export controls to curb China’s access to semiconductors for training and powering state-of-the-art AI, but an underground network of brokers has sprung up to get around the controls. What to do about the gray-market activity is a challenge for the Trump administration, which is weighing how to manage the technological rivalry with China. Beijing is promoting AI development, and the recent frenzy surrounding Chinese AI developer DeepSeek has prompted local companies to deploy the technology more widely.
UK Factories Cut Staff At Fastest Pace Since 2020 But Optimism Rises, PMI Shows
British factories cut staff at the fastest pace in nearly five years last month as the government's payroll tax increase began to push up their costs and demand at home and abroad was weak, a survey showed on Monday. But manufacturers also turned the most positive in six months as they hoped for a pick-up in the economy. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index for UK manufacturing remained below the 50.0 threshold that divides growth from contraction for a fifth month in a row, sinking to a 14-month low of 46.9 in February.
The PMI's jobs measure fell to its lowest since May 2020 - early in the COVID-19 pandemic - with factories responding to a rise in their social security contributions bill by laying off temporary staff, reducing the working hours of some employees, making redundancies and not replacing leavers. The rise in National Insurance Contributions - announced by finance minister Rachel Reeves last October to help pay for more public services and investment - takes effect on April 1. That is also the date for a nearly 7% increase in the minimum wage.
Budget Shift Could Bolster Space Force Capabilities
President Donald Trump created the US Space Force in 2019 to protect and defend America’s interests in space. Adversary actions in contesting this domain, combined with a burgeoning demand for space-based capabilities on earth, required a robust response to consolidate and align national security space activities, while also developing new strategies, operational concepts, tactics, and technologies. This includes offensive and defensive measures. This was a major shift given that for decades, U.S. policy prevented members of the military from even using the words “warfighting” and “space” in the same sentence.
Today, Space Force leadership is aggressively transforming the service into a warfighting enterprise. This is crucial as the service develops new tactics, techniques, procedures, and training to decisively address adversary threats on orbit. This includes new levels of situational awareness and the ability to gain a maneuver advantage with our assets in space. This is an incredibly complex, demanding set of challenges, and Guardians are making rapid progress—delivering results in months and years that would normally take decades. The scale and scope of the threat demands nothing less.
Read More at American Machinist
TSMC Poised to Announce $100 Billion Investment in US Plants
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plans to invest $100 billion in chips plants in the US over the next four years, a move President Donald Trump is set to announce at the White House later Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter. TSMC is the world’s leader in production of advanced semiconductors used for artificial intelligence, and the investment would help bolster Trump’s pledge to make the US dominant in AI. The person who described the plans did so on condition of anonymity ahead of the announcement.
The president has expressed a preference for using tariffs to boost US chipmaking instead of government subsidies — the approach adopted by Chips Act under President Joe Biden. That legislation, passed in 2022, led to TSMC winning $6.6 billion in grants to support three plants in Phoenix. During Trump’s first term, his administration lured TSMC to the US partly out of national security concerns. When TSMC first announced its investments in an advanced plant in the US in 2020, Trump officials back then said chips made by the Taiwanese chipmaker in Arizona will power everything from artificial intelligence to F-35 fighter jets.
Intel Delays Ohio Chip Project Again To 2031
Intel is once again pushing back its project timeline for two semiconductor plants in New Albany, Ohio, this time to 2030 and 2031, according to a memo sent to employees Friday. The chip manufacturer’s Mod 1 and Mod 2 fabrication facilities were previously expected to be ready by the end of 2026, but the project’s timeline was extended to ensure completion in a “financially responsible manner,” the memo says. Despite the slow progress, Intel has already started hiring and training people for the slated campus, with the memo saying “in no way does this diminish our long-term commitment to Ohio.” A prior release said the project would create 3,000 Intel jobs and 7,000 construction jobs over the course of the build.
The $28 billion Ohio One project, which initially broke ground in September 2022, is part of Intel’s long-awaited effort to make the state one of the leading hubs for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Intel received nearly $8 billion in CHIPS funding to support its fabrication expansion in Arizona, New Mexico and Oregon, with $1.5 billion going directly to its Ohio One project in November 2024, two years after the project’s groundbreaking.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Kia and Hyundai Report Smashing February Success in America
Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's top automaker, saw its sales in the United States climb 3 percent from a year ago in February, marking its biggest sales for the month, the company said Sunday. Hyundai Motor's US sales reached 62,032 units last month, compared with 60,341 units sold in the same month last year, according to the automaker. The figure marked the largest for any February, the company added. The growth was driven by a 194 percent surge in sales of the Santa Fe hybrid electric vehicle and a 12 percent increase in sales of the Ioniq 6 EV.
Kia Corp., Hyundai's sister company and South Korea's second-largest carmaker, also set a US sales record for the month, according to the company, with sales rising 7.2 percent on-year to 63,303 units. The company attributed the increase in sales to its lineup of sport utility vehicles and solid sales of the new K4 sedan. (Yonhap)