Member Briefing November 6, 2024
Trump Defeats Harris, GOP Take Senate, House Control TBD
- Trump Defeats Harris, Marking Historic Comeback – WSJ
- Republicans Clinch Control of the Senate – USA Today
- Close Races To Decide Control Of US Congress – Reuters
Locally:
- Riley (D) Defeats Molinaro In NY-19 – News 10
- Ryan (D) Holds NY- 18 – Mid-Hudson News
- Lawler (R) Holds NY-17 – PIX 11
- Lattimer (D) Wins – NY 16 – News 12
Get Full Election Coverage at the AP
US September Trade Deficit Widest In Over Two Years
The US trade gap expanded to its widest since early 2022 in September, according to government data released Tuesday, as imports increased and exports slipped. The world's biggest economy saw its trade deficit jump 19.2 percent to $84.4 billion, said the Department of Commerce, with imports growing by 3.0 percent. The expansion was significantly more than a market consensus expected, according to Briefing.com.
The rise in imports came ahead of the year-end holiday season, and with analysts earlier noting that some companies could also be increasing imports ahead of the US presidential election. In August, the revised trade deficit was $70.8 billion, according to the Commerce Department. Imports came in at $352.3 billion in September, boosted by areas like consumer products and items such as computers and semiconductors. Exports, meanwhile, were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion below the level in August. This came as exports of civilian aircraft and pharmaceutical preparations both slumped.
ISM Services PMI Rises to 56 in October
The economic activity in the US service sector expanded at an accelerating pace in October, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 56 from 54.9 in September. This reading came in above the market expectation of 53.8. Other details of the report showed that the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, edged lower to 58.1 from 59.4. While most labor data point to a jobs market that is on shaky footing, the ISM services report continues to suggest labor moderation isn't so black and white. The employment component rose nearly five points to 53.0 last month which is consistent with the broadest expansion in services-hiring since the summer of 2023. Recall, it was just last week that employers reported adding just 12,000 net new jobs in the very same month.
"Concerns over political uncertainty were again more prevalent than the previous month," said Steve Miller, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Business Survey Committee. "Impacts from hurricanes and ports labor turbulence were mentioned frequently, although several panelists mentioned that the longshoremen’s strike had less of an impact than feared due to its short duration."
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel And Hamas: The Latest News – The Guardian
- Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant - WSJ
- Israel’s Drawn-Out Conflict Raises Pressure – And Questions – Among Israeli Reservists - VOA
- Iran Rejects Nuclear Weapons but Will 'Defend Itself by All Means' - Newsweek
- Thirty-Five Palestinians Killed In Gaza, Israel Issues New Evacuation Orders - Reuters
- Air France Suspends Red Sea Flights After Houthis Missile Attack – Horn Observer
- Egypt Claims Houthi Attacks Have Cost Its Economy $6bn In Lost Suez Revenue – The Loadstar
- The West Bank Is on the Edge of Economic Collapse - WSJ
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukraine And Russia: The Latest News – The Guardian
- At UN, US Confronts Russia Over North Korean Troops For Ukraine - VOA
- Ukraine Clashed With North Korean Troops For The First Time, Minister Says - Politico
- Mystery Fires Were Russian 'Test Runs' To Target Cargo Flights To US - BBC
- American Loses Appeal in Russia After Conviction on Drug Charges - Newsweek
- Ukraine Reports Downing 48 Russian Drones - VOA
- Russia’s Rapidly Intensifying Shahed Offensive Threatens A Dark Winter - Forbes
- Ukraine War Map Reveals Multiple Russian Advances Along Vast Front Line - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Kremlin Does Not Recognize Maia Sandu As President Of Moldova - AP
- 17 Wild Facts About New Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s Team – Politico
- China's Latest Cry For More Babies May Fall On Deaf Ears - Reuters
- EU Top Official Ursula Von Der Leyen To Skip UN Climate Talks - Politico
- Puerto Rico's Election Could Make History in Statehood Debate - Newsweek
- A Commander’s Defection Sparks Revenge Killings, Rapes and a New Exodus in Sudan - WSJ
- Spain’s King Felipe Pelted With Mud on Visit to Flood Hit Region - WSJ
- US Issues Election Eve Warning Of Ramped-Up Russian Influence Ops - VOA
Policy and Politics
Are You Ready For The Day After The Election?
The day after Election Day is sure to be emotionally charged. In many organizations, employees have a wide range of political opinions. While some people may be feeling relieved or enthusiastic about the results, others might be feeling angry or anxious. And people’s feelings might be even more intense if the results are unclear or contested. So, what do you say, if anything, to your team about it?
You might wish to avoid the topic, but experts say that recognizing the emotional atmosphere within your team and the broader mood of the country is important. “Name the elephant in the room,” says Wendy Smith, a professor at the University of Delaware’s Alfred Lerner College of Business & Economics. Keep your comments brief, respectful, and focused, advises Dorie Clark, who teaches at Columbia University School of Business. “There will almost certainly be people who are upset no matter the outcome, but you can’t allow that to derail the work you’re doing or spill over and affect other employees,” she says. “Your goal as a leader is to find a balance between recognizing that people have feelings about the election results, and remembering that the collective reason we’re all there is to get our jobs done.”
Read more at Harvard Business Review
New York Education Leaders Back The End Of Mandatory Regents Test By 2027
The Class of 2027 is expected to be the last in New York who need to pass Regents exams to earn a high school diploma, state education officials announced Monday. The projected timeline is part of a $11.5 million, five-year plan presented to the Board of Regents to rework graduation measures, including to drop the high-stakes tests as a requirement. Other changes on the horizon would consolidate three types of diplomas into one, adjust credit requirements, and broaden the skills and knowledge students need to graduate.
“While Regents exams will be one of many ways for students to demonstrate mastery of the state’s rigorous learning standards, there will no longer be a separate assessment requirement to graduate high school,” said Shannon Logan, director of standards, instruction and educational technology at the state Education Department. Each of the proposals require approval by the Board of Regents before they can go into effect. State education officials first proposed dropping the Regents requirement and other changes to high school graduation measures in June. Their plan was based on a series of recommendations made by a key commission of teachers, administrators, parents, researchers, and business and higher education interests last fall.
White House
generation.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Health and Wellness
Why You Should Nourish Workplace Friendships
Workplace friendships may seem like motherhood and apple pie: Seemingly hard to challenge based on their inherent goodness. But are workplace friendships really worth nourishing? And are there drawbacks to having friends at work? The answers are more nuanced than you might think. In fact, the data is clear that mental health and wellbeing are significantly driven by connections — from superficial acquaintances to deeper relationships. And work is one of the most important opportunities to find friends, build bonds and enhance interactions which contribute to your fulfillment.
50% of people want more social connections at work and would even give up salary or career advancement to have stronger ties with others. All of this is according to a survey by BetterUp. But the current state of work can make connections harder to create and maintain. When you’re distant because of remote or hybrid work, you may miss seeing your favorite teammates or closer colleagues—and you’ll need to be intentional about how you nurture friendships and find the right balance in developing trust, intimacy and relationships.
Election 2024
- Election Results – NBC News
- Election Results – Fox News
- Election Results - NYT
- Election Results - WSJ
- New York State Board of Elections Results
Industry News
After Boeing Strike, CEO Must Tackle Deep Rifts In The Company
Ending the strike only stemmed the bleeding at Boeing. Now, CEO Kelly Ortberg, just three months into the job, is faced with repairing a divided, demoralized, and drifting American corporate icon. The strike has exposed divides that run right through the company, not just between the board and machinists, but also rifts within the union membership and resentment between white-collar staff and factory workers, according to interviews with more than 20 people with knowledge of Boeing’s operations, including current and former senior officials, suppliers, union leaders and plant workers.
The union deal came days after Boeing raised an unexpectedly hefty $24 billion to prop up its depleted finances. But a longer-term fix such as renewing the all-important 737 franchise Boeing has signaled it will move at a deliberate pace. It is anxious to avoid any mishap that might rock the confidence of investors, regulators or the public following the litany of setbacks it has suffered during a wretched year, sources said.
Toyota To Post First Profit Drop In 2 Years As Demand Cools After Big Run
Toyota Motor is expected to post its first profit drop in two years when it reports second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, signalling cooling demand after a run of robust earnings helped by a consumer shift away from electric vehicles. The world's largest automaker is nonetheless expected to deliver almost $8 billion in quarterly operating profit, benefiting as drivers in several major markets opt instead for petrol-battery hybrids, which typically command higher profit margins than standard petrol cars.
Still, recent sales and production figures have indicated a modest slowdown for Toyota. It faced a delivery suspension of two models in the United States and, like global rivals, is dealing with fierce competition in China, the world's biggest auto market and one where demand for EVs has not cooled. The Japanese automaker is expected to report a 14% year-on-year operating profit decline in July-September, to 1.2 trillion yen ($7.9 billion), according to the average of nine analyst estimates in an LSEG poll.
GM Claims a Milestone in EV Sales
As some of its rivals shift their emphases to more options for internal combustion and hybrid-fuel vehicle options, General Motors continues to highlight the progress of its electrification program. Now, the automaker reported that its 32,000 electric vehicles sold during 3Q 2024, up 46% over 2Q and up 60% over 3Q 2023, making it the number two supplier of EVs in the U.S. GM also noted it has sold more than 300,000 EVs in the U.S. since 2016, and more than 370,000 in North America. Tesla remains the North American market’s top EV supplier, having sold a reported 5 million electric vehicles since 2008.
“We’re doing more than building EVs,” according to GM. “We’re making it easier for more Americans to switch to EVs, expanding access to public charging and building new charger stalls in convenient locations across the country. We’re unlocking more convenience with home charging and ways to use your EV as a backup power solution.”
Read more at American Machinist
How Connected Manufacturing Can Help Solve The Trillion-Dollar Downtime Problem
Toyota’s Japanese manufacturing plants crank out about 13,500 new vehicles every day—but last year, 14 of them were knocked offline for 24 hours by a single software glitch. In Australia, a Chevron natural gas plant went offline for unplanned repairs, driving up global energy prices. And when plating equipment caught fire at a Renesas semiconductor fab, it took months to restore production, costing the company $156 million per month. This is the reality of modern manufacturing: industrial facilities are incredibly sophisticated, but they can be knocked offline by a single failure anywhere along the assembly line. Exactly how much money is lost when that happens varies by industry, from $36,000 per hour in the fast moving consumer goods space to an average of $125,000 per hour in the energy and heavy industry sectors. Experts estimate that unplanned downtime costs the world’s biggest companies more than $1.4 trillion per year.
Scheduled maintenance can help to keep plants running smoothly. But to reduce unplanned downtime, we need to go further and join the dots between plant operators and equipment manufacturers. With better communication between these stakeholders—with truly connected manufacturing—we have an opportunity to solve this trillion-dollar problem and radically improve the status quo.
Tariffs Hikes Could Be Coming. Stanley Black & Decker Says It’s Ready.
tariffs have been a topic of discussion for several companies as they strategize mitigation plans ahead of the U.S. election. This includes Stanley Black & Decker, which has more than 100 manufacturing facilities in its network, 50 of which are located in the U.S., according to a fact sheet on its website. Part of the toolmaker’s mitigation plan includes working through the price increases associated with tariffs, Allan said. Once the tariffs become “more concrete,” the CEO noted that Stanley Black & Decker will focus on getting those price changes into the market within a “reasonable time frame.”
But there is a lot to be determined depending on how the election and ensuing policy plans play out, Allan said. “Is it going to be just China? Is it going to be every country? Is it going to be 60% China? Or is it going to be 25% China for everything?” Allan said on the call. Regardless of the election outcome, the CEO said that the company has “a playbook on the shelf ready to go.”
Read more at Supply Chain Dive
Musk Now Says It's 'Pointless' To Build A $25,000 Tesla For Human Drivers
When Reuters reported in April that Tesla had scrapped plans for a long-promised, next-generation $25,000 electric vehicle, the automaker’s stock plunged. Chief Executive Elon Musk rushed to respond on X, his social-media network. “Reuters is lying,” he posted, opens new tab, without elaborating. Tesla’s stock recovered some of its losses. Six months later, Musk appears to have backed into an admission that Tesla dropped its plans for a human-driven $25,000 car. He said in an Oct. 23 earnings call that building the affordable EV would be "pointless” unless the car was fully autonomous.
On the October earnings call, Musk said that Tesla does plan a “$25K car” – its “Cybercab,” a two-door, two-seat, fully autonomous vehicle. Musk unveiled a prototype at a Hollywood-style event on Oct. 10. Musk says Tesla will start production of the Cybercab in 2026, after it deploys fully autonomous versions of its current Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Texas and California next year. The automaker faces steep technological, regulatory and legal challenges in delivering on Musk’s latest promises of fully autonomous vehicles, which echo others dating back about a decade.
General Dynamics Q3 Aircraft Deliveries Hampered By Supplier Issue
General Dynamics experienced yet another quarter of lower than expected aircraft deliveries due to supply chain troubles. In Q3, the aerospace and defense company delivered four Gulfstream G700s, despite planning to deliver up to 16 of the aircraft. In Q2, the company delivered 11 of a planned 15 units. Novakovic said the company “still had a reasonable belief” three weeks before the end of Q3 that it could deliver at least 11 G700s during the quarter. The recent component issues aren’t the first disruptions to plague General Dynamics’ supply chain. In 2023, the company called out supplier Honeywell for late shipments. While the aerospace and defense company did report supply chain improvements later that year, aircraft production was then disrupted by the Israel-Hamas war.
The company also delivered one less each of the G600, G500 and G280 models year over year in Q3, Novakovic told analysts. Besides the vendor quality issues, timing on engine certifications led to late engine deliveries, further impacting the company’s aerospace sector. Since aircraft were painted prior to receiving the engines, there was a significant need for repaint, upping both time spent and costs, the CEO said. Hurricane Helene also hampered four days of productivity for the company.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
U.S. Chip Toolmakers Move to Cut China From Supply Chains
The U.S. semiconductor industry is uprooting Chinese companies from supply chains. Spurred by directives from Washington, chip toolmakers are telling suppliers that they need to find alternatives to certain components obtained from China or risk losing their vendor status. Companies involved include Applied Materials and Lam Research, Silicon Valley stalwarts that are among the world’s biggest manufacturers of equipment used in the production of microprocessors.
The push is part of the broader effort by the U.S. and its allies to suppress China’s involvement in sensitive next-generation technology. The U.S., Japan and Europe are spending tens of billions of dollars to support chip manufacturing in a bid to gain more control over the process. U.S. officials fear that if companies rely on Chinese suppliers for parts, it could hand Beijing a card to play against the U.S. in a crisis.
BYU, Toyota Develop New Welding Technique For Minivan Doors
BYU partnered with Toyota to develop a more efficient welding method for the sliding doors on the Toyota Sienna. The current welding technique — resistance spot welding — is designed for steel. The new process, refill friction stir spot welding, is based on the same fundamental principles but tweaked and specialized for aluminum’s unique chemical properties.
The new technique is more relevant than ever as car manufacturers focus on utilizing lighter aluminum parts rather than steel. It uses 40 times less energy, emits fewer emissions, and produces welds that are 10 times stronger, a release from BYU said. Refill friction stir spot welding joins metal together without melting it, resulting in the metal remaining in a solid state. Pressure is applied, then a pin is inserted into the metal where it is softened by friction. The two sheets of aluminum are then stirred together with a tool and when the pressure is released, the hole fills in. This creates a strong-quality joint that requires fewer spot welds than typical joints in a vehicle.