Member Briefing April 14, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Top Story

PPI = 2.7 Wholesale Prices Unexpectedly Fall, Dragged Lower by Energy

Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in March, setting up a favorable inflation backdrop as President Donald Trump began intensifying tariffs against U.S. trading partners, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The producer price index, considered a leading indicator for pipeline inflation pressures, declined a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, after rising 0.1% in February. Headline PPI showed a 2.7% 12-month rate. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI also dropped, down 0.1% for a 12 month rate of 3.4%. It was the first decline for PPI since October 2023.

March inflation measures will be viewed as somewhat stale considering the uncertainty behind Trump’s trade policy. The president slapped a broad 10% levy against all imports while also revealing a menu of individual duties against dozens of other trading partners. Trump on Wednesday backed off what he termed “reciprocal” tariffs, instituting a 90-day negotiation period in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit.

Read more at CNBC


US Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations Deteriorate Sharply In April

U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers on Friday said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month from a final reading of 57.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index falling to 54.5. The University of Michigan's statement said interviews for Friday's release were conducted between March 25 and April 8.

"Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month." said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations soared to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5.0% in March. Over the next five years, consumers saw inflation running at 4.4% compared with 4.1% in March.

Read more at Reuters


Trump Exempts Phones, Computers, Chips From New Tariffs

President Donald Trump exempted smartphones, computers, and other tech devices and components from his reciprocal tariffs, new guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows. The guidance, issued late Friday evening, comes after Trump earlier this month imposed 145% tariffs on products from China, a move that threatened to take a toll on tech giants like Apple, which makes iPhones and most of its other products in China. The guidance also includes exclusions for other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, and memory cards.

The 20 product categories listed in the CBP guidelines are apparently exempt from the 125% tariff imposed by Trump on Chinese imports and the 10% baseline tariff on imports from other countries. A 20% tariff on all Chinese goods remains in effect. The order provides no relief for thousands of other consumer products that must pay the tariffs but lack the clout to win exemptions, or if you’re a small manufacturer that relies on a component from China.

Read more at CNBC


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Policy and Politics

NYS Lawmakers Pass 4th Budget Extender Through April 15th

The New York State budget is 10 days late. Lawmakers have passed a fourth budget extender to make sure state workers get paid.  “It will run until Tuesday in observance of Passover,” Blake Washington, New York State’s Budget Director told reporters on Wednesday. However, lawmakers themselves have their paychecks withheld until a state budget is finalized. Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie recently introduced a bill that would allow them to get paid if policy issues, which don’t have a financial impact, hold up the budget.

All three leaders— the Governor, Senate Majority Leader, and the Assembly Speaker had a meeting on Thursday. “Governors use the leverage of not getting a budget done until they get their policy initiatives and that doesn’t mean that everything that has been brought up post the executive budget is something we can agree to. If it’s something that the members are okay with, I’m okay talking about it, but this is why year after year, after year, budgets are late. It’s never late because of the numbers. Never late,” said Heastie.

Read more at News 10 Albany


10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.5% After Surge This Week That’s Worrying Wall Street And The White House

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed higher Friday, adding to its steep weekly rise, as dizzying trade moves by President Donald Trump caused investors to dump U.S. assets in favor of other global safe havens. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield advanced more than 17 basis points to 4.567%, its highest level since Feb. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points on the day at 3.899%. The 10-year yield this week has risen more than 50 basis points this week after ending last week around 4%, marking one of the biggest spikes on record.

The move marks a stark reversal in how investors view Treasurys. Traditionally, investors have turned to U.S. debt as a safe haven during tumultuous times. That doesn’t appear to be the case this week as China and Japan appeared to be selling Treasurys amid the heightened trade tensions, traders speculated. Other suspected reasons include somewhat plausible ideas revolving around complex trading strategies employed by hedge funds to conspiracy theories focused on nefarious dealings by foreign governments. But the answer might be far simpler: U.S. government debt is doing badly because, well, investors don’t want to buy it.

Read more at WSJ


Real ID: What You Need To Know As The May 7 Deadline Approaches

The federal government says it will finally begin enforcing the national Real ID law starting on May 7 — for real this time, after nearly two decades of delays. For many people, this matters most for boarding domestic flights. Non-Real ID driver's licenses and identification cards won't get you through security at U.S. airports when the law is fully enforced. But are the millions of daily U.S. airline passengers — as well as the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials who screen them — ready for the changeover? As the latest Real ID deadline approaches in less than a month, here's what you need to know.

On May 7th federal agencies including the TSA say they will accept only state-issued driver's licenses and IDs that meet Real ID requirements, which include having applicants provide certain identifying information such as Social Security numbers. This doesn't mean that you need a Real ID to board a domestic flight. You can still use a passport or passport card, an enhanced driver's license issued by some states, a permanent resident card or one of many other forms of ID allowed by the TSA. But it does mean that state-issued driver's licenses that aren't Real ID-compliant will no longer be accepted.

Read more at NPR

Learn about Real ID at the NYS DMV website


Trump’s First 100 Days



Health and Wellness

Best Mental Health Apps of 2025: Expert Picks for Stress Awareness Month

Stress is a normal part of life, but when it becomes overwhelming, it can seriously affect one's mental and physical well-being. Whether you're dealing with everyday worries or something more overwhelming, the right mental health app can be a great way to find relief. Since April is Stress Awareness Month, it's the perfect time to check in with yourself and explore tools that can support your mental well-being.

With between 10,000 and 20,000 wellness apps out there, it can be difficult to find the best option. The best mental health apps can help boost your mood, lower anxiety and more. Here are the top mental health apps, tested and vetted by our staff. That's why CNET researched for you. Below, you'll find their picks for the best mental health apps you can use today to elevate your happiness.

Read more at CNET


Industry News

Trade War Updates


How the U.S. Lost Its Place as the World’s Manufacturing Powerhouse

President Trump says his sweeping tariff regime is aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. Economists are skeptical that tariffs could make that a reality, and worry that the damage they create will outweigh any benefits. To understand whether restoring manufacturing to the U.S. is possible, it helps to first understand how the U.S. lost its place as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. In the 1950s, around 35% of private-sector jobs in the U.S. were in manufacturing. Today, there are 12.8 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S., an amount equal to 9.4% of those private-sector jobs.

After the 1950s, manufacturing’s role in the U.S. economy began to slip. Some of this came about merely because Americans were becoming more affluent, and devoting more of their spending to services, such as travel, restaurants and medical care. The jobs followed the spending, with more people going to work for service-sector employers such as hotels, banks, law firms and hospitals. There were ups and downs with recessions and recoveries, but from the mid-1960s through the early 1980s, manufacturing employment essentially leveled off, as services jobs grew and grew. Changes in non-durable goods, China’s joining of the WTO and other factors accelerated the trend and are detailed in this WSJ article.

Read more at the WSJ


Airbus, Boeing in Tight Race at End of First Quarter

The world’s two major aircraft builders are on even ground for the first time in several years – at least in terms of their aircraft deliveries for the current year. Airbus has reported 136 aircraft delivered during the first quarter of 2025 aircraft, while its rival Boeing’s deliveries totaled 130 commercial jets. The deliveries are critical for both manufacturers as they directly affect revenues. For Airbus, the tally of aircraft delivered during Q1 included 65 A321neos, one of several models for its top-selling narrow-body jet series. It delivered just one A220-100, from its mid-range jet series, and one wide-body A350-1000 aircraft. Boeing’s Q1 deliveries were similarly led by its major seller, the narrow-body 737 MAX series. Airlines received a total of 105 of those jets during January-March 2025. Also delivered were 13 wide-body 787 Dreamliners, seven long-range 777s, and five 767 cargo jets.

The closeness of the two results should be seen as a credit to Boeing, whose activities over the past year have been slowed by federal oversight, a seven-week work stoppage, and its own supply-chain problems. The Q1 total is more than Boeing delivered during any single quarter last year. The group delivered only 348 during all of 2024, compared to 766 deliveries last year for Airbus.

Read more at American Machinist


Amazon launches LTL service in US

Amazon is now offering less-than-truckload services to customers shipping inbound to its fulfillment facilities, according to an April 4 news release. Customers can access the new offering via the e-commerce giant’s self-service portal. The platform provides quotes for shipments 14 days out, comparisons of FTL and LTL options and status tracking for shipment loads. Billing, invoicing and online payment features are also available.

The new LTL capability has access to over 60,000 trailers and thousands of lanes across the U.S., per the news release. Introducing LTL services in the U.S. builds on Amazon’s efforts in international markets. In 2024, the company launched an LTL program in Germany, which was an expansion of its LTL offering in the United Kingdom.  Currently, Amazon’s U.S. LTL service is limited to customers shipping inbound to its fulfillment centers. But the company will continue to evaluate shippers’ needs on the new service.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive


How AI is Transforming Automotive Design

AI is beginning to transform the automotive design process by allowing designers to rapidly ideate, sketch and render new designs, experts say. Until recently, designers had to spend several weeks or months sketching before refining and rendering those images in 3D. The experience can be frustrating for designers because of the immense manual labor required to produce dozens or hundreds of drawings that differ “in the tiniest ways,” said Alan Macey, an automotive design and brand consultant and faculty member at the ArtCenter College of Design.

AI-powered design tools fast-track the process of transforming 2D drawings into 3D renderings, which can be “time-consuming,” Macey said. Typically, when designers have an idea, they must draw several 2D images in multiple views, such as a front three-quarter view, and combine them to create a 3D model.  The latest AI image generators can create 3D models “instantly” because they have been programmed extensively with massive data sets, including photos of vehicles. Vizcom, for example, can create a 3D model using a single image, such as a side view, and one additional reference point, like a center line.

Read More at Automotive Dive


South Korea's POSCO Considers Joining Hyundai Steel's $5.8 Billion Steel Plant Project In US, Reports Say

South Korean steelmaker POSCO is considering joining a project by Hyundai Steel to build a $5.8 billion plant in Louisiana as the country's steel industry tries to respond to U.S. tariffs on the sector, news reports said on Sunday. Hyundai Steel said it did not have any comment on the matter. POSCO said the company was considering various strategic options regarding its investment in the United States, but nothing had yet been decided.

Read more at Yahoo Finance


Pharmaceutical Giant Novartis Commits To Spending $23B On US Manufacturing

Novartis will substantially expand its U.S. footprint, announcing Thursday plans to spend $23 billion over five years to build six new factories, expand three existing ones and add a new research and development hub. The Swiss drugmaker said its expansion will allow it to manufacture all of the medicine intended for U.S. patients in the country, at a time when President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have thrown global trading plans into turmoil. Novartis follows Eli Lilly, Merck & Co. and Johnson & Johnson in rolling out new capital expenditure initiatives as Trump pressures major corporations to bring manufacturing to the U.S.

Novartis said it will build two new plants to manufacture radiopharmaceuticals like its cancer drugs Pluvicto and Lutathera in Florida and in Texas, as well as expand existing plants in Indianapolis; Millburn, New Jersey; and Carlsbad, California. The sites for four facilities haven’t been determined yet. Three will make biologic drug substances, products, devices and packages, while the fourth will make chemical drug substances, pills and packaging. Novartis will also establish a $1.1 billion “biomedical research innovation hub” in San Diego. That site is due to open between 2028 and 2029.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive


DOE Allocates First Round of HALEU to Five U.S. Advanced Nuclear Reactor Developers

In a critical step aimed at bolstering advanced reactor development and their domestic nuclear fuel readiness, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has issued its first round of allocations for high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) under its HALEU Availability Program to five American nuclear developers. On April 9, the DOE said it made conditional commitments to TRISO-X, TerraPower, Kairos Power, Radiant Industries, and Westinghouse Electric Co. The first-round recipients represent Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) Pathway 1 awardees, companies planning to demonstrate reactors in the DOE’s DOME test bed, and select ARDP risk reduction participants.

As a next step, the DOE said it will “initiate the contracting process to allocate the material to the five companies, some of which could receive their HALEU as early as this fall.” While the initial distribution marks the program’s launch and sets the stage for broader allocations in the coming months, the agency noted the allocation process “is ongoing, and DOE plans to continue HALEU allocations to additional companies in the future.”

Read more at Power Magazine


A Cotton Farm, a Made-in-the USA Dream and a Manufacturing Dilemma

What began as a financial goal for Mark Yeager evolved into a business that exceeded the family’s wildest dreams. Cotton farming, like many agricultural endeavors, has become increasingly expensive. While the cost of farming cotton continues to rise, the price of the cotton itself has not increased enough to keep up with these escalating costs. In response, the Yeager family decided to transform their Alabama-grown cotton into finished products, leading to the creation of Red Land Cotton.

Over the past nine years, Red Land Cotton has expanded significantly, growing from a small operation in Mark’s office to a full-fledged business with a retail store, a distribution facility, and two cut-and-sew factories. What was once a modest idea to turn cotton into products has now become a symbol of American craftsmanship and entrepreneurship. However, as the business expanded, the cutting and sewing process became a bottleneck. In response, the Yeager family rented an abandoned plant in Mississippi from the local government and purchased all the machines and furniture that the previous manufacturers had left. Manufacturing takes place exclusively in the U.S., so Red Land Cotton stands to benefit from the tariffs being placed on quality linens imported from countries like Turkey, Pakistan, and India.

Read more at IndustryWeek