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Member Briefing August 14, 2025

August 14, 2025

Posted By: Harold King in Daily Briefing,

Top Story

Machine Tool Orders Up at Midyear

U.S. machine shops’ and other manufacturers’ orders for capital equipment spiked +9.1% from May to June, totaling $429.2 million and 1,608 total units for the month as demand improved from two of the top market segments. The new results also showed improvements of +7.7% over June 2024, and +13.7% year-to-date compared to January-June 2024.AMT noted that the value of new orders during January-June 2025 is +21.2% higher, and number of machines ordered is lower than the average year, suggesting growing automation has been an important factor for the investments made in recent months.

There is some optimism based on the sources of the recent orders: AMT noted that contract machine shops (aka “job shops”) show signs of rebound following several months of weak order activity. These operations are the largest buying segment for manufacturing technology, and both the value of their orders and the units have increased +12.0% versus January-June 2024. However, AMT remains cautious about further demand improvement from contract machine shops. Another positive indicator is the continued strong investments by aerospace manufacturers and suppliers. Those operations have increased the value of their orders by +6.0% year-over-year during the first half of 2025.

Read more at American Machinist

When Cardboard Talks: What Q2 Packaging Demand Says About Your Next Freight Market For Small Carriers

Corrugated boxes, linerboard, medium, coated boxboard—this is the packaging that everything else rides in. When mills run hotter, converters buy more rolls, warehouses stack more cartons, and the truck market usually follows. When mills cool down, that heat fades out on your trailer a few weeks later. Cardboard is the heartbeat of goods demand.

The newest reads from the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) give us a clean pulse check on Q2. Here’s the short version: containerboard softened, boxboard held roughly flat, operating rates ticked lower, and inventories swelled and then eased. That mix signals a goods economy that’s not collapsing—but isn’t charging ahead either. And because packaging sits upstream of retail freight by a few beats, these signals matter to your calendar and your wallet.

Read more at Freight Waves

Weekly Mortgage Refinancing Demand Shoots 23% Higher

Refinance demand, along with renewed demand for adjustable-rate loans, drove a sharp increase in overall applications last week. Total mortgage application volume rose 10.9% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.67% from 6.77%, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.59, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate is 13 basis points higher than it was the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) decreased to 5.80% from 6.06%. ARM loans are generally fixed for a term but then adjust to market rates, making them riskier products. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 23% for the week and were 8% higher than the same week one year ago. That was the strongest week for refinancing since last April. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.5% of total applications from 41.5% the previous week. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 1% for the week and were 17% higher than the same week one year ago.

View Chart at CNBC

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Policy and Politics

Trump Revokes Biden-Era Order On Competition, White House Says

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday revoked a 2021 executive order on promoting competition in the U.S. economy issued by his predecessor Joe Biden, the White House said. The move by Republican Trump further unwinds a signature initiative by Biden, a Democrat, to crack down on anti-competitive practices in sectors from agriculture to drugs and labor. The Justice Department welcomed Trump's revocation of the order, saying it was pursuing an "America First Antitrust" approach focused on free markets instead of what it called the "overly prescriptive and burdensome approach" of the Biden administration.

Biden signed a sweeping executive order in July 2021 to promote more competition in the U.S. economy as part of a broad push to rein in what his administration described as a pattern of corporate abuses, ranging from excessive airline fees to large mergers that raised costs for consumers. The initiative was championed by top Biden economic officials, many of whom had previously worked for or with Senator Elizabeth Warren, who played a key role in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under former President Barack Obama.

Read more at Yahoo News

H-1B Visas Changes Approved by White House: Report

A proposed Department of Homeland Security rule that would alter how H-1B visas are allocated has cleared review by the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), according to Bloomberg Law. Federal regulators cleared a proposed rule that would apply a "weighted selection process" by replacing the current random lottery with a new system that gives priority in the selection process to registrants who meet or exceed certain criteria, such as wage or education level. The H-1B cap of 85,000 slots annually influences employers' ability to hire specialized foreign workers in fields including engineering and computer science. Any change to the selection criteria could incentivize employers to offer higher wages to improve odds in a weighted system or change recruitment strategies.

The H-1B program supplies tens of thousands of specialty-occupation workers to U.S. employers each year and is heavily used by the technology sector. Any shift from a random lottery to a weighted, wage- or skill-based system could change hiring incentives for employers, affecting which foreign professionals obtain U.S. work authorization. The Institute for Progress, a nonpartisan think tank examining innovation policy, earlier this year suggested eliminating the H-1B lottery. It argued that the economic value of the visa program could be increased by 88 percent if applicants were evaluated based on seniority or salary.

Read More at Newsweek

Centers For Medicare And Medicaid Services Rate Region’s Hospitals

A total of 132 hospitals across New York have been rated by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for quality by analyzing a myriad of information including readmissions, safety of care, patient experience, timely care and mortality with each medical center earning anywhere from one to five stars. Twelve hospitals received the highest five-star rating while 29 earned the lowest.

Hudson Valley hospitals recognized with the five-star rating from Uncle Sam include Northern Westchester Hospital, Hudson Valley Veterans Administration Hospital in Montrose and White Plains Hospital.
Four-star ratings went to Hudson Valley Hospital in Peekskill-Cortlandt and Northern Dutchess Hospital in Rhinebeck.
three-star designations went to Putnam Hospital Center in Carmel, Garnet Health Medical Center in the Town of Wallkill, Phelps Memorial Hospital in Sleepy Hollow, Montefiore St. Luke’s Cornwall Hospital in Newburgh and Vassar Brothers Medical Center in Poughkeepsie.
Hospitals awarded two stars were Bon Secours Community Hospital in Port Jervis, Columbia Memorial Hospital in Hudson, Good Samaritan Hospital in Suffern, Health Alliance Hospital Mary’s Avenue Campus in Kingston, Nyack Hospital in Rockland County and St. John’s Riverside Hospital in Yonkers.
Area hospitals earning the lowest score of one star were New Rochelle Hospital, St. Joseph’s Medical Center in Yonkers and the Westchester Medical Center in Valhalla.

Read the more at Mid-Hudson News

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

Do You Have Long COVID? Depends Whom You Ask, Study Says

The medical field still lacks a clear answer as to what constitutes long COVID, despite hundreds of published studies and millions of sufferers worldwide, researchers reported Aug. 12 in JAMA Network Open. The definition of long COVID varies so widely that the percentage of people identified as having the ailment can differ dramatically, making it harder to properly diagnose and treat patients, researchers said. For the study, researchers applied five published long COVID definitions from previous studies to a group of more than 4,500 COVID patients being tracked as part of an ongoing research project. The prior studies took place in the U.S., U.K., Netherlands, Sweden and Puerto Rico.

The five definitions differed by symptom duration, ranging from four weeks to six months, researchers said. The definition also varied by the number of potential symptoms, from nine to as many as 44. The percentage of patients with long COVID varied from 15% to 42%, depending on which definition had been used, results showed. These differences can lead doctors to miss legitimate long COVID cases while misdiagnosing others who actually don’t have the syndrome, said senior researcher Dr. Joann Elmore, a professor at David Geffen School of Medicine.

Read more at US News and World Report

Industry News

Trade Wars

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GE Appliances Plans $3 Billion U.S. Investment to Help Blunt Tariffs

GE Appliances said it plans to invest $3 billion to expand and modernize its U.S. factories over the next five years, helping to blunt the effects of tariffs by reshoring some work now done in China and Mexico. The appliance maker, which is owned by China-based Haier Smart Home, said the money will go into factories in South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama. A previously announced project, the $490 million expansion of a washing-machine factory in the company’s home base of Louisville, Ky., is also part of the total.

Kevin Nolan, GE Appliances’ chief executive, said that while the company has long aimed to build its products close to their end markets, trade considerations played a role in the decision to upgrade its aging plants. Once this round of investment has been completed, the company said it will have spent $6.5 billion on its U.S. factories and distribution network since 2016. The investment will allow the factories to make new models of water heaters, air conditioners, gas ranges and refrigerators, and will create 1,000 jobs, the company said.

Read more at The WSJ

Daimler, Volvo, Other Truckmakers Sue California To Block Emissions Rules

Daimler, Volvo, Paccar and International Motors, formerly Navistar, said they have been "caught in the crossfire" after Trump reversed waivers issued during the Biden administration that let California set its own standards. In a complaint filed on Monday, the truckmakers said Trump's rescinding U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approval of California's plan to boost zero-emission heavy-duty truck sales and reduce nitrogen oxide emissions preempted the state's enforcement.

The truckmakers said the regulatory uncertainty has caused irreparable harm because they cannot plan production in advance without knowing which vehicles they will be permitted to sell. Monday's complaint names the California Air Resources Board and Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom as defendants, and was filed in the federal court in Sacramento, the state's capital. On Tuesday evening, the Federal Trade Commission ended an antitrust probe into the Clean Truck Partnership, and said Daimler, Volvo, Paccar and International Motors agreed to avoid future anticompetitive agreements with state regulators.

Read more at Reuters

US Embeds Trackers In AI Chip Shipments To Catch Diversions To China, Sources Say

U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge of the previously unreported law enforcement tactic. The measures aim to detect AI chips being diverted to destinations which are under U.S. export restrictions, and apply only to select shipments under investigation, the people said.

The trackers can help build cases against people and companies who profit from violating U.S. export controls, said the people who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. Location trackers are a decades-old investigative tool used by U.S. law enforcement agencies to track products subject to export restrictions, such as airplane parts. They have been used to combat the illegal diversion of semiconductors in recent years, one source said.

Read more at Reuters

Blueprint For Golden Dome Taking Shape

Details of the Trump administration's ambitious Golden Dome plan are starting to come to light, with defense contractors eager to grab a piece of the action. The proposed defense shield will reportedly consist of four integrated layers, one space-based and three on land, and 11 short-range missile batteries. The details, as reported by Reuters, were included in U.S. government presentation titled "Go Fast, Think Big!" that was shown to 3,000 contractors at an event in Alabama last week.

The Golden Dome's space-based sensing and targeting layer would be for missile warning and tracking as well as missile defense. The other three layers would be land-based, consisting of missile interceptors, radar arrays, and potentially lasers. The presentation mentioned a new large missile field, possibly in the Midwest, for Next Generation Interceptors made by Lockheed Martin. The new proposed site would be part of the Golden Dome's "upper layer," alongside Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Aegis systems made by Lockheed. The last lines of defense - the "under layer" and "Limited Area Defense" - would include new radars, current systems like the Patriot, and a new "common" interceptor launcher.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Just In Time? Manufacturers Turn To AI To Weather Tariff Storm

Manufacturers like U.S. lawnmower maker The Toro Company (TTC.N), opens new tab are not panicking at the prospect of U.S. President Donald Trump's global trade tariffs. Despite five years of dramatic supply disruptions, opens new tab, from the COVID pandemic to today's trade wars, Toro is resisting any temptation to stack its warehouses to the rafters.

Among U.S. manufacturers, inventories have roller-coasted this year as they rushed to beat Trump's deadlines for tariff hikes, only to see them repeatedly delayed. But since their post-pandemic expansion, inventories have mostly contracted, according to U.S. Institute for Supply Management data. Instead, "just in time" inventory management - which aims to increase efficiency and reduce waste by ordering goods only as they are needed - is back. But how can firms run lean inventories even as tariffs fluctuate, export bans come out of the blue, and conflict rages? One of the answers, they say, is artificial intelligence.

Read more at Reuters

GM Plans Renewed Driverless-Car Push After Cruise Debacle

General Motors (GM) is reportedly reviving its efforts to develop autonomous vehicles (AVs) with a focus on personal-use cars, as reported by Bloomberg, citing familiar sources. The initiative was unveiled by Sterling Anderson, a recent addition to GM's team and former Tesla autopilot chief, in an employee meeting held on 6 August. Anderson noted that the company is actively seeking to rehire some former Cruise employees and plans to expand its talent pool for the project, with recruitment efforts targeting its Mountain View, California, US office, among other locations.

This move indicates CEO Mary Barra's commitment to the competitive driverless vehicle market, despite the company's exit from the robotaxi business. The decision to shut down Cruise came after an incident that caused serious injury to a pedestrian, leading to regulatory scrutiny and the departure of several executives, including former CEO Kyle Vogt. GM had previously planned to introduce a personally owned autonomous vehicle by the middle of the decade, but the timeline has since been removed from public view. The development of this vehicle is ongoing, alongside improvements to GM's Super Cruise hands-free driving system.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

GM Inks Domestic Rare Earth Magnet Supply Deal With Noveon Magnetics

General Motors has signed a multi-year supply agreement with Texas-based Noveon Magnetics for neodymium magnets (NdFeB magnets) for its full-size trucks and SUVs, according to an Aug. 6 press release. The deal provides GM with a steady supply of rare earth magnets, while also helping to establish a more resilient domestic supply chain and lessen the reliance on imported critical materials.

Noveon Magnetics has already started production of magnets for GM. The first deliveries began last month. NdFeB magnets, which are primarily composed of neodymium, iron and boron, are considered the strongest type of permanent magnet commercially available. They are used in a wide variety of automotive and industrial applications. The company is supplying GM with sintered magnets, a manufacturing process that results a very strong magnetic field. Noveon is currently the only active manufacturer of sintered NdFeB rare earth magnets in the U.S., according to the release. The company intends to scale production as demand for these magnets accelerates across the automotive, energy and industrial sectors.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

The Lightning Strike That Stretched a Record 515 Miles Across the Great Plains

There is a new king of lightning: A record-setting strike that lasted more than seven seconds and stretched 515 miles, from eastern Texas almost to Kansas City, Mo. The massive size of the megaflash, which touched ground in five states in 2017, was revealed by a new analysis of satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The next largest lightning flash, recorded in the Great Plains in 2020, was 38 miles shorter. The average lightning strike is between 2 and 10 miles long.

While researchers have been tracking lightning flashes for decades with ground-based instruments, they have only recorded such large megaflashes since the launch of NOAA’s Geostationary Lightning Mapper, according to Randall Cerveny, professor of geographical sciences at Arizona State University and an author of a paper, published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, that described the event. Megaflashes happen when a charge accumulates over a large area and then spreads for miles behind a line of thunderstorms, according to Michael Peterson, senior research scientist at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, who analyzed the NOAA data for the study. “As the lightning moves horizontally through the clouds, you actually do have cloud to ground strikes along the many branches, one after the other,” Peterson said.

Read more at the WSJ

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