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Member Briefing August 13, 2025

August 13, 2025

Posted By: Harold King in Daily Briefing,

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CPI = 2.7% Inflation Rises Less Than Expected Amid Tariff Worries, Signs of Heat In Core

The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends.

A 0.2% increase in shelter costs drove much of the rise in the index.
Food prices were flat.
energy fell 1.1%.
Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% jump.
Transportation and medical care services both posted 0.8% moves higher.

Tariffs did appear to show up in several categories. For instance, household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase after rising 1% in June. However, apparel prices were up just 0.1% and core commodity prices increased just 0.2%. Canned fruits and vegetables, which generally are imported and also sensitive to tariffs, were flat. Tariff-sensitive New vehicle prices also were unchanged.

Read more at Fortune

Small Business Optimism Bounces in July

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points in July to 100.3, slightly above the 52-year average of 98. Contributing most to the rise in the Optimism Index were respondents reporting better business conditions and reporting that it is a good time to expand. In contrast to the Optimism Index, the Uncertainty Index increased by eight points from June to 97.

There was a notable improvement in overall business health. When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 13% reported excellent (up five points), and 52% reported good (up three points).
The percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem rose one point to 11%. This is the highest level of poor sales since February 2021.
The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell one point from June to a net 6% (seasonally adjusted).
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 14 points from June to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted). This reading is comfortably above the historical average.
In July, 16% (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up five points from June.
Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported labor quality as their single most important problem, up five points from June and ranking as the top problem.
Eleven percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from June’s lowest reading since September 2021.
Twenty-two percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, up one point from June, but seven points below the historical average of 29%.

Read more at The NFIB

Here’s The Inflation Breakdown For July 2025 — In One Chart

The CPI is a widely used measure of inflation that tracks how quickly prices rise or fall for a basket of goods and services, from haircuts to coffee, clothing and concert tickets.

These are some of the core categories, plus other items with notable year-over-year price changes.

View Chart at CNBC

Global Headlines

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Policy and Politics

Stefanik Closes Gap In Potential Gubernatorial Matchup With Hochul, Siena Poll Says

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s job approval and favorability ratings are up a little from earlier this summer, but her lead over a potential race for governor against Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik next year has fallen from 23 points to 14 points, according to a Siena University poll of registered voters released Tuesday. According to the poll, Hochul has a 42-44% favorability rating, up slightly from 42-47% in June. Her job approval rating is 53-42%, up from 50-45% in June. Stefanik’s favorability rating is 27-32%.

Regionally, Greenberg said that New York City voters remain solidly behind Hochul, but downstate suburban voters went from favoring Hochul by 11 points in June to narrowly favoring Stefanik now, and upstate voters had given Hochul a 12-point lead, and are now virtually evenly divided. “Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively. While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik,” Greenberg said.

Read more at The Siena Poll

More from the Siena Poll

“With cuts in the BBB eliminating federal Medicaid funding for immigrants in New York illegally, more than two-thirds of Republicans and nearly two-thirds of independents are opposed to the state spending $3 billion to continue providing healthcare to those immigrants. Only a plurality of Democrats support the state continuing to provide them with healthcare,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Interestingly, voters under 35 support continuing to provide healthcare, but a strong majority of voters 55 and older oppose it.

“More than three-quarters of Democrats, nearly two-thirds of independents and half of Republicans are very or somewhat concerned that cuts in the BBB will force many rural hospitals in New York to close, despite bill supporters of the BBB saying it includes additional funding to avoid rural hospital closures,” Greenberg said. “At least 63% of voters from every region of the state are concerned about closures.

Close the state budget gap due to the BBB by mostly cutting services or raising taxes? A majority of Republicans and a plurality of independents say cut services. A plurality of Democrats says raise taxes,” Greenberg said. “With the state budget a long way away, neither side has yet made a convincing argument to voters on how to close any potential gap from federal funding cuts in the BBB.”

Trump Favorability and Job Ratings Up a Bit but Still Underwater; Voters Say He’s Not Succeeding Making Necessities More Affordable, Ending Wars, Protecting Rights of All.

Senator Chuck Schumer has his lowest ever favorability rating in a Siena poll (dating to February 2005), 38-50%, down from 41-47% in June. Among Democrats his favorability rating is 49-39%, down from 55-35% in June. For the first time ever, he is underwater with New York City voters, 39-46%.

Since her re-election last year, voters have soured on Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Her favorability rating stands at 36-38%, down from 44-26% last October (among likely 2024 voters). While a plurality of Democrats views her favorably, pluralities of Republicans and independents view her unfavorably.

Voters are still pessimistic about the direction of the state, with 41% saying the state is on the right track and 45% saying the state is headed in the wrong direction. It is a noticeable improvement, however, from June when it was 37-50%.

There was no similar improvement from voters on the direction of the country. By a 33-59% margin, voters say the US is headed in the wrong direction, little changed from 35-58% in June.

Voters have an unfavorable view of both Democrats in Congress (42-49%; it was 45-48% in June) and Republicans in Congress (34-58%; it was 34-56% in June).

Read More The Siena Poll

US July Budget Deficit Up 20% Year-Over-Year Despite Record Trump Tariff Income

The U.S. budget deficit in July climbed 20% this fiscal year compared to the last despite the U.S. taking in record income from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to Treasury Department data released Tuesday. The U.S. saw a 273% increase — or $21 billion — in customs revenue in July over the same period last year, the data showed. Overall increased spending is in part due to a mix of expenditures, including growing interest payments on the public debt and cost-of-living increases to Social Security payouts, among other costs. This comes as the federal government’s gross national debt creeps up to the $37 trillion mark.

Federal spending keeps outpacing the revenues collected by the government. That financial picture might change as companies exhaust their pre-tariff inventories, forcing them to import more goods and generate even more in tax revenues that could whittle away at the deficit without meaningfully reducing it as promised.

Read the more at Yahoo Finance

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

The Future Of ‘Personalized’ Cancer Treatment: Antitumor Mrna-Based Vaccines

Gastric cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality worldwide, and peritoneal metastasis, wherein the cancer spreads to the peritoneum or the lining of the abdominal cavity, represents the most common form of recurrence after gastric cancer surgery. This form of metastasis is particularly associated with poor survival outcomes, as current first-line treatment options, including anti-PD-1 therapy combined with chemotherapy, have proven ineffective against peritoneal dissemination.

Immunotherapy presents an attractive option for tackling this challenging condition—more specifically, vaccines that target tumor-specific antigens called neoantigens (neoAgs) are being explored as an option to generate durable antitumor responses in patients, with fewer off-target effects. Now, in a study published online in the journal Gastric Cancer on July 31, 2025, a team of researchers developed a neoAg mRNA (messenger RNA)-based vaccine that shows potent antitumor efficacy against gastric cancer cells, especially in combination with the standard anti-PD-1 therapy.

Read more at EurekAlert

Industry News

Trade Wars

Take our Tariff Impact Survey

Will Trump's 100% Chip Tariff Reshape Global Manufacturing?

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported semiconductors, escalating pressure on manufacturers across the technology and industrial sectors. These chips are essential components in products ranging from consumer electronics and medical devices to renewable energy systems. Craig Barrett, former chief executive officer of Intel, calls them “the steel of the modern age”, underlining their critical role in the global economy. Despite the scale of the tariff threat, some companies appear able to sidestep the penalties through large-scale investment in US manufacturing facilities. The White House has framed the tariff policy as a response to national security concerns, with Trump stating he will “not allow the US to be held hostage by countries such as China” in matters of technology supply.

The prospect of 100% tariffs on imported semiconductors introduces uncertainty for manufacturers in multiple sectors. Those dependent on Asian-made chips may encounter production delays or increased costs, either from tariffs or the expense of shifting operations. Given the complexity of semiconductor supply chains, even manufacturers with substantial US facilities may find it difficult to eliminate foreign-made components entirely. Industry observers note that this “reciprocal” tariff strategy represents a break from previous trade policy, with potential to reshape manufacturing decisions for years to come. The eventual impact will depend on the speed with which domestic chip production can scale and on whether the tariffs progress from proposal to enforcement.

Read more at Manufacturing Digital

Samsung's Potential $50 Billion US Chip Expansion Puts Pressure On TSMC

Samsung Electronics is reportedly weighing a major expansion of its semiconductor investments in the US, a move that could push total spending to $50 billion after securing multibillion-dollar orders from Tesla and Apple, according to people familiar. The Korean giant is on track to be the second-largest chipmaker behind TSMC in America, allowing it to reduce the operating losses of the foundry division, and give companies the option of dual-sourcing. The company's flagship facility in the US is reported to start production by October, after a wait of several years.

Samsung's investments in the US dropped to $37 billion last year, as the company wasn't optimistic about chip production. However, with the recent efforts of the Trump administration to boost American chip manufacturing, the Korean giant is now expected to ramp up investments, in particular to develop cutting-edge 2nm production lines and a dedicated advanced packaging facility. More importantly, Samsung's increased collaboration with the US will also help the firm compete with TSMC in the region.

Read more at wccftech

German Economic Sentiment Tumbles As EU–US Trade Deal Underwhelms

Germany’s economic sentiment fell sharply in August, snapping a three-month recovery and casting renewed doubts over the country’s growth outlook. The decline follows a controversial EU–US trade deal that has disappointed financial experts and left key industrial sectors exposed to steeper tariff burdens. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropped by 18 points to 34.7 in August, falling well short of expectations for a more modest retreat to 40. This reverses part of the strong recovery seen in July, when sentiment had climbed to its highest since February 2022.

Sentiment across the Eurozone mirrored Germany’s decline due to an “unequal trade deal” with he US. The ZEW expectations index for the bloc dropped 11 points to 25.1, while the gauge of current conditions fell by 7 points to minus 31.2. Initial hopes of relative resilience in the eurozone have been tempered as economists revise down growth expectations for the second half of the year. Bill Diviney, economist at ABN Amro, described the agreement as a product of Europe's weak bargaining position, highlighting economic stagnation and rising inflation pressures. “Berlin and France were unwilling to suffer economic pain to risk a better outcome,” he said. “The EU remains dependent on the US for its security, both in terms of military support as for military imports and remains a net importer of energy,” he added.

Read more at EuroNews

Trump Meets With Intel CEO, Calls Him ‘Success’ Days After Demanding Resignation

President Donald Trump said Monday that he and members of his cabinet met with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, days after he called on the head of the chipmaker to resign. Intel shares rose 2% in extended trading. “I met with Mr. Lip-Bu Tan, of Intel, along with Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “The meeting was a very interesting one. His success and rise is an amazing story. Mr. Tan and my Cabinet members are going to spend time together, and bring suggestions to me during the next week. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Trump’s latest message marks a stark change in tone from last week. In a Truth Social post on Thursday, the president wrote that Tan “is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately. There is no other solution to this problem.” Intel said in a comment later that day that the company, directors and Tan are “deeply committed to advancing U.S. national and economic security interests.”

Read more at CNBC

More on Ford EV Relaunch – A New $30K BEV Pickup With Modular Assembly In 2027

CEO Jim Farley announced Monday that Ford believes it has cracked the code to battle low-cost Chinese battery-electric vehicles, in the form of its new Universal Electric Vehicle Platform and with a planned disassembly of the assembly line to produce it. The first vehicle off the platform will be a yet-to-be-named or seen publicly $30,000 BEV pickup truck, a model so affordable Farley promises the workers set to build it in Louisville, Kentucky, will be able to buy it. The promise references what Ford founder Henry Ford wanted when he launched the Model T in 1908, revolutionizing the auto industry with its accessibility to the workers on his assembly line in Highland Park, Michigan.

Farley promises the new truck will have four doors, endless configurability, plenty of capacity for five people and their stuff such as surfboards, plus low maintenance, a good range, fast charging, a lower cost of ownership than internal-combustion-engine pickups of the same size and an all-new digital experience. An important detail of Ford’s investment will be its application of aluminum “unicasting” technology for vehicle structures. This detail confirms various reports over the past year that Ford would adopt a version of megacasting – the high-pressure diecasting approach to producing vehicle chassis – more than a decade after it switched to outsourcing castings for its U.S. operations. Megacasting was pioneered by Tesla and more recently embraced by Honda Motors, among other automakers.

Read more at Foundry

Boeing's July Aircraft Deliveries Tumble 20% From June, Trailing Airbus

Boeing said on Tuesday that it delivered 48 airplanes in July, down from 60 in June but five more than a year earlier. It was the most deliveries by the company in July since 2017, when it delivered 58 aircraft. Boeing continued to fall further behind European rival Airbus in deliveries this year. Airbus handed over 67 jets in July despite having a growing number of aircraft unable to be delivered because it lacks enough engines. That was down from 77 in July 2024, but it lifted Airbus' year-to-date tally to 373, compared to Boeing's 328.

Boeing delivered 37 of its best-selling 737 MAX jets in July, 20 of which were for aircraft lessors and 17 for airlines. Boeing also handed over eight 787s, two 777 freighters and one 767 freighter. Airbus delivered five regional A220 jets, 54 of its cash-cow A320neo family, two A330s and six A350s. Airbus still projects that it will deliver 820 jets by the end of the year, a 7% rise from last year. Boeing has not given guidance for annual deliveries. The U.S. company is working to stabilize production after a mid-air panel blowout on a new 737 MAX in January 2024 exposed widespread production quality and safety problems.

Read more at Reuters

United Set To Retire Boeing 777-200 For 787-10

United Airlines was the launch customer for the Boeing 777-200, and it remains the largest operator, and the only carrier in the United States to operate the widebody aircraft variant. We're specifically talking about the standard 777-200 here, as American Airlines also operates the extended range 777-200ER. Boeing launched the 777-200 in 1990, with its prototype rolling off the factory floor in 1994, before entering scheduled service with United in June 1995. Just 20 standard 777-200s remain in regular service. United Airlines operates the largest share of these, with 17 flying primarily domestic services across the United States.

Just 20 standard 777-200s remain in regular service. United Airlines operates the largest share of these, with 17 flying primarily domestic services across the United States.

Read more at The WSJ

Explosions At US Steel Plant Leaves Two Dead, 10 Injured

Multiple explosions on Monday at a U.S. Steel plant near Pittsburgh killed two people and injured 10 others, according to the company and local authorities. The blasts at the Clairton Coke Works - part of a sprawling industrial complex along the Monongahela River - took place just before 11 a.m. ET. Firefighters battled flames and heavy smoke that billowed out of the plant, which is owned by U.S. Steel, a subsidiary of Nippon Steel.

The Clairton Coke Works is the largest coke manufacturing facility in the United States, employing about 1,300 workers. It operates 10 coke oven batteries, which produce about 4.3 million tons of coke a year. Coke is produced by heating coal at high temperatures. It is used in blast furnaces as part of the process of making steel. While air quality monitors did not detect a dangerous rise in sulfur dioxide after Monday's explosions, residents within 1 mile of the plant were advised to remain indoors, close windows and doors, set HVAC systems to recirculate, and avoid activities that draw in outside air, said Allegheny County Executive Sara Innamorato at the briefing.

Read more at Reuters

Member Briefing August 12, 2025August 12, 2025