Member Briefing August 12, 2025
Today’s CPI Report Expected To Show Higher Inflation Tariffs Feed Through
US consumers probably experienced a slight pickup in underlying inflation in July as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties. The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In June, core CPI edged up 0.2% from the prior month.
While that would be the biggest gain since the start of the year, Americans — at least those who drive — are finding some offset at the gas pump. Cheaper gasoline probably helped limit the overall CPI to a 0.2% gain, the government’s report on Tuesday is expected to show. Higher US tariffs have started to filter through to consumers in categories such as household furnishings and recreational goods. But a separate measure of core services inflation has so far remained tame. Still, many economists expect higher import duties to keep gradually feeding through.
Average U.S. Household Debt Reaches $152K; Here’s A Breakdown Of What Americans Owe
WalletHub, an online financial advisory site, recently released its latest Household Debt Report, finding that the nation’s total household debt reached $18.39 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. Researchers used data from the New York Federal Reserve to determine existing debt levels and data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to adjust past debt levels for inflation to accurately show how the existing debt compares to historical levels.
- While the current $18.39 trillion in total household debt represents the record-high in absolute terms, it’s actually more than $1 trillion below the inflation-adjusted record of $19.44 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2008.
- The current $18.39 trillion in total household debt equates to an average household debt of $152,653, which is relatively in line with the average household debt since the start of 2020, albeit with slight fluctuations from quarter to quarter.
- The $12.94 trillion in mortgage debt equates to an average mortgage debt of $107,384, which is more than $14,000 below the inflation-adjusted record of $121,622 in the fourth quarter of 2008.
- Auto loan debt decreased slightly to $1.65 trillion, for an average of $13,739 per household.
- Total student loan debt sat at $1.64 trillion, with the average household owing $13,598 for student loans.
- Credit card debt reached $1.21 trillion, with the average household holding a credit card balance of $10,037.
Fed: Consumer Credit Inches Up in June
Consumer credit rose 1.8% in June and 2.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 after rising 1.2% in May. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, dropped 1.0% in June after declining 3.5% in May. Revolving credit increased 0.7% across Q2, down from 3.1% in Q1. The last time revolving credit fell for two straight months was during the COVID pandemic in 2020.Meanwhile, nonrevolving credit, such as car and student loans, advanced 2.7% in June, a slightly slower pace than the 2.9% rise in May but significantly higher than the 0.6% increase in Q1.
After the dramatic increase in credit usage in April, consumers pulled back on spending in May and June, likely in response to economic uncertainty and increased costs of tariffed goods. Meanwhile, nonrevolving credit usage has been maintained amid the resumption of student debt collections in May. Overall, consumer credit in June was close to the 2024 average, when consumer credit rose 2.0% over the year. Total consumer credit rose $7.4 billion in June, up from a $5.1 billion gain in the prior month.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel Steps Up Gaza City Bombing After Netanyahu Vow To Expand Offensive - Reuters
- UN Says 242 Journalists Killed In Gaza As Al Jazeera Mourns Those Killed In Israeli Strike – France 24
- Israel Kills Al Jazeera Journalist It Claims Was Hamas Member—What We Know - Newsweek
- UN Nuclear Watchdog Official To Visit Iran - Politico
- Australia To Recognize Palestinian State, Leader Says – The Hill
- Rooting Out Hamas, Getting Aid To Gaza Remain Key White House Goals, Vance Says - Politico
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- European Leaders Plan To Meet Trump Before Putin Talks – WSJ
- Trump Says He Will Try To Get Back Territory For Ukraine In Talks With Putin - BBC
- Ukraine and Europe Counter Putin’s Cease-Fire Proposal - WSJ
- Finland Charges Suspected Russian Shadow Fleet Ship Crew Over Cable Sabotage - Politico
- Putin Flexes India, China Ties Ahead Of Planned Trump Meeting – The Hill
- Trump-Putin Talks Are Already A Triumph For Moscow, Its Economy And Markets - CNBC
- NATO Secretary-General Optimistic About Trump Meeting With Putin - Politico
- Map Shows How Russia and Ukraine Could Swap Land to End War - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Colombia Presidential Candidate Miguel Uribe Dies Of Injuries After June Shooting – France 24
- Pakistan Makes Nuclear Threat To India From US Soil - Newsweek
- From Meme To Movement: France's Online Anti-Tax Revolt Rattles Macron's Elysée - Politico
- The Engineering Marvel That China Hopes Will Help Wean It Off Foreign Energy - WSJ
- Vatican Under Fire For Alleged Money-Laundering Dodge - Politico
- Jellyfish Invasion Shuts Down Reactors At French Nuclear Power Station – France 24
- Trump Team Pushes To Oust No. 2 Official At World Energy Body – Politico
Policy and Politics
Trump to Deploy National Guard to D.C., Take Over City’s Police Department
President Trump said he would deploy National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., and place the city’s police department under federal control, launching an unprecedented effort to take charge of the nation’s capital. Trump said roughly 800 D.C. National Guard troops would be deployed to the city. He added that he would call in active-duty military troops if needed and suggested he might attempt to take similar action in other U.S. cities. The administration is also deploying hundreds of federal agents throughout the district, including more than 100 from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as part of its crackdown, a person familiar with the matter said.
Under the Home Rule Act, which established the district’s governing body, Congress has the power to challenge laws passed by the Washington city council and must approve the budget, although it rarely gets involved. The president can deploy the district’s National Guard, but has limited ability to intervene in day-to-day matters. Trump invoked Section 740 of the Home Rule Act, which allows the president to federalize the D.C. police when “special conditions of an emergency nature exist.” Under the law, the president must notify Congress about his rationale for federalizing the D.C. police.
DiNapoli: NY Faces Cumulative State Budget Gap Of $34.3B Through FY 2029
New York state faces a cumulative three-year state budget gap of $34.3 billion through fiscal year 2029, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli said in a report on Friday. DiNapoli said when accounting for the recent federal actions and cuts, the gaps as a share of spending reach levels not seen since the Great Recession. According to the comptroller, the $34.3 billion gap is up $7 billion since the January release of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s executive budget for FY 2026 and can be attributed to downward revisions to the economic forecast and projected revenues, as well as increases in projected spending.
The tax law passed by Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump in July implements deep cuts to federal funding and changes to eligibility for safety net programs, the comptroller’s report said, which will have major impacts on the financial plan and on New Yorkers, particularly on health care and nutritional assistance. Higher spending growth in school aid and Medicaid has driven overall spending growth in New York, the report said. In addition to being the largest areas of spending, they have also grown the fastest. DiNapoli recommended implementing efficiencies by streamlining operations and improving internal controls; finding savings across all state operations and local assistance programs; balancing savings with minimizing disruptions to the most essential services; and keeping tax rates competitive at a time when New Yorkers are facing growing affordability challenges.
Read More NY State of Politics
The U.S. Marches Toward State Capitalism With American Characteristics
A generation ago conventional wisdom held that as China liberalized, its economy would come to resemble America’s. Instead, capitalism in America is starting to look like China. Recent examples include President Trump’s demand that Intel’s chief executive resign; the “golden share” Washington will get in U.S. Steel as a condition of Nippon Steel’s takeover; and the $1.5 trillion of promised investment from trading partners Trump plans to personally direct. This isn’t socialism, in which the state owns the means of production. It is more like state capitalism, a hybrid between socialism and capitalism in which the state guides the decisions of nominally private enterprises.
Many in the West admire China for its ability to turbocharge growth through massive feats of infrastructure building, scientific advance and promotion of favored industries. American efforts are often bogged down amid the checks, balances and compromises of pluralistic democracy. We wouldn’t be dabbling with state capitalism if not for the public’s and both parties’ belief that free-market capitalism wasn’t working. That system encouraged profit-maximizing CEOs to move production abroad. The result was a shrunken manufacturing workforce, dependence on China for vital products such as critical minerals, and underinvestment in the industries of the future such as clean energy and semiconductors.
Political Headlines
- What Trump Can — And Can’t — Do In His Bid To Take Over Law Enforcement In DC - Politico
- Ousted FDA Vaccine Chief Vinay Prasad Is Returning To The Agency – AP
- Medical Journal Rejects Kennedy's Call For Retraction Of Vaccine Study - Reuters
- Why The Ivory Tower Wants A Deal With Trump - Politico
- Why The Nvidia, AMD Revenue-Sharing Pact With The White House Is Ripe For A Legal Challenge – Yahoo Finance
- California Gov. Newsom Warns Trump He’ll Retaliate If Texas GOP Draws New Congressional Maps - CNBC
- ACA Premiums Could Spike By Up To 18% In 2026, Analysis Shows – Benefits Pro
- Hochul Calls Texas Redistricting A ‘Legal Insurrection’ In Fox News Interview - Gothamist
- Trump Orders Pentagon To Target Foreign Drug Cartels – France 24
- DOJ Subpoenas New York AG James As It Investigates Whether She Violated Trump's Rights – NY State Of Politics
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
What To Know About Rising COVID-19 Cases And The Surging "Stratus" Variant
COVID-19 cases are rising again in the United States, and the "stratus" variant might be to blame. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday upgraded national wastewater viral activity for COVID-19 from "low" to "moderate." Wastewater levels for COVID-19 are highest in the Western U.S., according to a CDC map, with levels peaking in Alaska, California, Colorado, Nevada and Utah. The Southeast also has higher wastewater activity levels, with Louisiana having the most nationwide, according to CDC data recorded from July 27 to Aug. 2.
Though the N.B.1.8.1 variant (nicknamed "nimbus") is still the dominant variant in the U.S., the recent climb might be related to the variant XFG, commonly known as "Stratus." Both are descendants of the Omicron strain. The "stratus" variant symptoms haven't been seen as any different than other recent COVID-19 variants. The common COVID-19 symptoms outlined by the CDC — fever, chills, cough, sore throat and congestion — still apply. Some reports suggest hoarseness might be a specific COVID-19 symptom related to the "stratus" variant, but it's unclear. What to know: If sick, the CDC still recommends staying home and away from others. Anyone at risk of severe illness should seek treatment and testing.
Industry News
Trade Wars
- Trump Extends China Tariff Deadline By 90 Days – CNBC
- Trump Pushes China To Quadruple Soybean Orders Ahead Of Truce Tariff Expiration – The Hill
- Trump Says Gold Will Not Be Tariffed - CNBC
- In India, Trump's Tariffs Spark Calls To Boycott American Goods - Reuters
- Brazil-US Meeting Canceled Amid Tariff Dispute, Says Finance Minister – Yahoo Finance
- Goldman Sachs Estimates U.S. Consumers Now Shoulder Two-Thirds Of President Trump’s New Tariff Costs - Fortune
- Swiss Lawmakers Turn Against F-35 Deal After Trump’s Tariff Bombshell - Politico
- High Costs After Tariffs Pose Threat To Trump And GOP – The Hill
- Trump’s Trade Deals, A Summary to Date – IndustryWeek
Century Aluminum To Restart Production In South Carolina, Citing Trump’s Tariffs
Century Aluminum Co. will restart more than 50,000 metric tons of idled production at its Mt. Holly, South Carolina, smelter, to bolster domestic supplies as Section 232 tariffs hamper aluminum imports, the Chicago-based company said Thursday. The primary aluminum producer will invest $50 million in the effort, creating more than 100 jobs and increasing U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10%, according to a news release. The plant is scheduled to achieve full production by June 30, 2026.
Century Aluminum is also looking to build a new smelter to expand domestic production. CEO Jesse Green said on a Thursday earnings call that it would double the size of the existing U.S. aluminum industry and create more than 1,000 jobs. A site has not been selected yet. Century Aluminum said the restart is a direct result of President Donald Trump’s Section 232 tariffs for primary aluminum, which were raised this year to 50% on steel and aluminum imports without exceptions or exemptions. Additionally, the company has seen higher aluminum prices through the first half of the year driven by increases in Midwest region supplies.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Nvidia, AMD to Give U.S. 15% Cut on AI Chip Sales to China
Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the Trump administration a portion of the sales from their artificial-intelligence chips to China, unusual agreements that deepen their relationships with the U.S. government. The Trump administration will receive 15% of the sales as part of a deal to approve exports of Nvidia’s H20 AI chip to China, according to people familiar with the matter. That could amount to billions of dollars given demand for the H20 chips and is the latest example of the White House employing novel tactics to raise revenue. The administration has reached the same agreement with AMD for its MI308 chip, the people said. Details of the arrangements and the financial structures are still being worked out.
It is unusual for companies to essentially pay for export licenses. The agreements follow criticism from national-security hawks who fear the chips and other technology will boost China’s AI ecosystem and military. The Nvidia and AMD licenses are some of the only licenses being granted while the U.S. and China continue negotiating on trade. Access to semiconductors is one of the biggest priorities for the Chinese and advantages for the U.S.
Micron Raises Forecasts As AI Boosts Memory Chip Demand
Micron Technology on Monday raised its forecast for fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted profit, due to surging demand for its memory chips used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, sending its shares around 5% higher before the bell. Semiconductor makers such as Micron have seen a surge in orders for their high-bandwidth memory chips due to their intensive data-processing capabilities, as large tech firms scaled up their financial commitments to AI data centers.
The company now expects revenue of $11.2 billion, plus or minus $100 million, compared with its previous forecast of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Micron also nudged up its adjusted gross margin forecast to 44.5%, plus or minus 0.5% compared with its previous expectation of 42%, plus or minus 1.%. In June, Micron said it is expanding its U.S. investments by $30 billion, totaling $200 billion amid a push by the Trump administration to strengthen America's manufacturing sector.
Ford Promises 'Model T' Electric Vehicle Moment With EV Market At Cross Roads
Ford is spending $2 billion dollars to upgrade its Louisville plant to build a new affordable EV platform that can support several types of vehicles. CEO Jim Farley called the development “Ford’s Model T Moment.” Farley says it will revolutionize Ford’s EV production much like the Model T revolutionized the auto industry. The first vehicle will be a midsize pickup that should cost $30,000 and be available in 2027. Ford has built its business on trucks, its Ford F-Series, especially the F-150 has been America’s top seller for decades.
Farley says the first vehicle on the new universal EV platform is a midsize four-door electric pickup with a targeted starting price of about $30,000. He says it will be as fast as a Mustang EcoBoost. More passenger space than the latest Toyota RAV4 with a frunk and a bed. Farley says it will have enough onboard power to power a house for six days. Ford is also upgrading its BlueOval Battery Park in Michigan to produce the newer advanced prismatic LFP batteries for the universal EV platform. In all, Ford is expecting to invest $5 billion dollars in the new EV venture. Much of the new assembly process and the platform design was created by Ford’s top secret “skunkworks team” located in California that focuses on electric vehicle hardware and software.
Rare-Earth Magnet Maker Raises $65 Million in Push to Counter China
Startup Vulcan Elements said it raised $65 million in a new funding round to increase production of the rare-earth magnets crucial to everything from drones to electric vehicles. The funding signals the growing push to build up an industry in the U.S. and reduce dependence on China. North Carolina-based Vulcan was valued at around $250 million in the funding round led by Brad Gerstner’s Altimeter Capital, a tech-focused investment firm that has backed companies such as OpenAI and Uber Technologies.
Vulcan, which said it previously raised about $10 million in seed funding, opened a pilot manufacturing facility this March in Durham, N.C., and has made initial magnets for military and commercial clients. Vulcan said it doesn’t use any material, equipment or software from China, only from the U.S. and its allies. Vulcan Chief Executive John Maslin, a former Navy officer, said the new funding would go to building a large-scale facility that could produce hundreds of metric tons of magnets annually within a couple of years, and thousands by the end of this decade.
Lithium Stocks Surge After Chinese Mine Suspends Production
Lithium stocks surged Monday on reports that battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) suspended production at a mine in China that plays a key role in supplying the global market. CATL has suspended production at the Yichun Project after the mine’s permit expired Saturday, the company told CNBC. It is working to renew the permit and will resume lithium production at the mine as soon as it receives approval, the company said.
The mine in question produces about 4% of global lithium supply forecast for 2025, according to Morgan Stanley. The lithium supply and demand balance was already tightening, with a small surplus expected in 2025, according to the investment bank. “Depending on the length of the Jianxiawo outage, and if there are any further disruptions elsewhere, the market is likely to move closer to balance in the remainder of the year, bringing upside risk to prices,” Amy Gower, a commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told clients in a Monday note. Jianxiawo is the specific CATL mine within the larger Yichun Project in China’s Jiangxi province.
Lockheed Prototyping Golden Dome Command/Control
Lockheed Martin has set up a prototyping center for evaluating available technologies to be incorporated into the Golden Dome Command and Control (C2) capability. Drawing on the capabilities of its Center for Innovation in Suffolk, Va., the C2 prototyping hub will connect sensors, firing systems, and platforms from all combat domains, “from seabed to space,” according to Lockheed.
Prototyping is underway at Lockheed’s Center for Innovation, aka The Lighthouse, where actual capabilities are being tested against current and future threat scenarios. Those capabilities include threat evaluation, battle management, mission planning tools, sensor tasking, AI/ML integration and optimization, joint planning, data link sharing and more. According to Lockheed, the C2 capabilities will integrate data from various sensors and coordinate direct responses, for example, interceptor launches, while also allowing “cyber-resilient” communication and synchronized decision-making across domains by combining reliable, multi-source data.
Read more at American Machinist
Explosion at US Steel's Clairton Mill in Pennsylvania: What to Know
An explosion at a U.S. Steel plant near Pittsburgh on Monday left one person dead and dozens more injured or trapped beneath rubble, officials said. Emergency crews remain on the scene working to rescue victims. An Allegheny County emergency services spokesperson, Kasey Reigner, said two were currently believed to be unaccounted for. Multiple other people were treated for injuries, Reigner said. The county sent 15 ambulances, on top of the ambulances supplied by local emergency response agencies, Reigner said.
The Clairton Coke Works, an industrial facility along the Monongahela River south of Pittsburgh, is considered the largest coking operation in North America. Coking is a refining process that upgrades heavy residues from crude oil distillation into lighter, more valuable products and petroleum coke. It is one of four major U.S. Steel plants in Pennsylvania that employ several thousand workers. Ricky Sayer, a reporter for KDKA News, said on X that the explosion happened inside the "reversing room" of the 13/15 battery, citing multiple sources inside the plant. "It's a room that acts as a mechanical regulator, making sure coal bakes evenly in the oven, I'm told," Sayer said..