Member Briefing April 15, 2025
Fed Survey: Near Term Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge, Stable for the Long Run
President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to drive expectations for short-term inflation higher, but encouragingly for the Federal Reserve, long-term estimates haven’t taken off. Median inflation expectations for the next year jumped to 3.6% in March from 3.1% in February, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest survey of consumer expectations. Economists and policymakers closely track consumer views on inflation because expectations can act as a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people expect higher inflation, they may demand higher wages. Business may pre-emptively raise prices, giving workers more reason to press for higher pay.
Longer-term views on price increases remain well anchored, according to the New York Fed’s survey. Median expectations for the three-year horizon were unchanged at 3%, and five-year expectations actually dipped by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. That, coupled with March’s inflation reading, could give Fed officials some breathing room to determine the best way to navigate Trump’s fluctuating trade policies, rather than facing pressure to raise rates or hold them steady, in order to forestall inflation.
CNBC Survey: Tariffs Won’t Lead Supply Chains Back To U.S. But Companies Will Go Low-Tariff Globe-Hopping
If China is going to lose some manufacturing as a result of President Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. manufacturing sector won’t be the main beneficiary, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed (74%) said cost was the top reason for saying they would not be reshoring production, followed by the challenge of finding skilled labor (21%). The Trump administration has promised tax cuts for companies that bring back manufacturing but the survey found taxes lower in the ranking of costs that impact manufacturing site decision making.
The majority of respondents taking the survey estimate that the price tag of building a new domestic supply chain would at least be double current costs (18%), and would likely be more than twice as expensive (47%). Instead of moving supply chains back to the United States, 61% said it would be more cost-effective to relocate supply chains to lower-tariffed countries. In addition to the tariffs, consumer demand and raw material prices, as well as the “current administration’s inability to provide a consistent strategy,” were cited as key supply chain concerns.
A Young Generation Goes to Work for Mom and Dad Inc.
The closer John Welsh came to earning his graphic-design degree, the worse the job market seemed. By the time he was ready to graduate in 2022, he was seriously considering ditching his chosen field and taking up his dad’s offer to work for the family metal-fabrication business. “It feels so impersonal just sending off your résumé to whatever job you see,” said Welsh, who is 25 and has worked for three years as a purchaser at his dad’s company in Plymouth, Minn. “Versus going back to a place where I grew up working and was already familiar with everyone.” Welsh now plans to eventually take over Seelye Craftsmen alongside his older brother, who also surprised their dad, Tom, by going to work for the family firm.
The share of small businesses that employ a young adult child of an owner has doubled since 2018 and is up 13% year-over-year as of January to roughly 1,200, according to an analysis by payroll provider Gusto. The company analyzed 400,000 payrolls searching for companies where the last name of an owner over 50 years old matched the name of an employee under 30. The analysis purposely excluded 100 of the most common names in the U.S.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- No Breakthrough In Gaza Talks, Egyptian And Palestinian Sources Say - Reuters
- Iran's Supreme Leader Tells Military to Stay Alert Despite US Talks - Newsweek
- Netanyahu Criticizes Macron's Push To Recognize Palestinian State – France 24
- Israel Intensifies Strikes Across Gaza On Palm Sunday And Hits A Hospital In The North - Politico
- Why Trump’s Nuclear Talks With Iran Could Be Far More Successful Than Biden’s - CNBC
- Iranian Foreign Minister To Visit Moscow Ahead Of Second Iran-U.S. Meeting - Reuters
- Video Shows U.S. Forces Preparing Attacks on Houthis - Newsweek
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Says It Hit Ukrainian Officers' Meeting In Sumy – The Hill
- Zelensky Urges Trump To Visit Ukraine Ahead Of Deal With Russia - BBC
- Donald Trump Reacts To Deadly Russian Missile Strike: 'They Made A Mistake' – Newsweek
- Kyiv Asks EU Officials For May 9 Visit To Counter Putin’s Victory Parade - Politico
- Zelensky Issues World War 3 Warning to Donald Trump - Newsweek
- Civilian Death Toll in Ukraine Climbs as Putin Resists Trump’s Peace Drive - WSJ
- Kellogg Condemns Russia’s Attack On Palm Sunday Gathering In Ukraine – The Hill
- Back To Russian Gas? Trump-Wary EU Has Energy Security Dilemma - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- German Coalition Deal Backs EU’s 90 Percent Climate Target — With Caveats – Politico
- Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa Wins Re-Election - BBC
- Europe’s NGOs Fear Trump-Style Funding Cuts Are Coming - Politico
- Government 'Confident' British Steel Furnaces Will Stay On - BBC
- Brazil's Bolsonaro In Intensive Care After 12-Hour Surgery - Reuters
- Detained American Missionary Released In Tunisia After 13 Months – The Hill
- 'Death Is Everywhere': Sudan Camp Residents Shelter From Attacks - BBC
- French Opposition Parties Raise Spectre Of No-Confidence Vote Over 2026 Budget – Reuters
Policy and Politics
Risks Loom Large As GOP Starts Drafting The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’
They know it’s going to be big. They want it to be beautiful. Now congressional Republicans need to decide what’s going to be in it — and they’re confronting the very real possibility they might not be able to figure it out. A Thursday House vote might have finalized a fiscal framework for the GOP’s domestic policy megabill, but completing that intermediate step exposed huge fissures between the House and Senate over a range of issues crucial to finishing the sprawling legislation that’s expected to span tax cuts, border security, energy and more.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are cognizant of the need for speed. They have urged their committee chairs to use the two-week recess now underway to ramp up their private talks with members and start bridging the vast differences between the two chambers, with a goal of having panels start advancing pieces of the megabill once lawmakers return to Washington at the end of the month. The joint budget plan approved Thursday orders committees to deliver their respective sections of the bill by May 9, though that deadline is not binding.
The $600 Billion Medicaid Maneuver on the Chopping Block
An obscure set of state taxes on hospitals and other health providers is in the crosshairs of congressional budget cutters because the levies can lead to higher federal spending on Medicaid. Known as provider taxes because states impose them on hospitals, nursing homes and other facilities that provide healthcare, the taxes boost a state’s budget for funding Medicaid. That in turn attracts more matching federal dollars to fund the program—money that is ultimately directed back to the hospitals and clinics.
If Congress were to restrict the taxes’ use to finance state Medicaid contributions entirely, it could save more than $600 billion over a decade, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office. That would go a long way toward achieving House Republicans’ plans to reduce federal spending by as much as $2 trillion to help offset the impact of extending President Trump’s income-tax cuts. But the taxes have a strong constituency among state governors and legislators on both sides of the aisle. A big reason: Hospitals often tend to get back more in payments than they shelled out for the original tax, which shores up their ability to care for Medicaid patients.
New York State Budget Talks Expected to Continue Today
No new discussions were held Monday on New York's state budget as the state continues to operate without a finalized budget. The budget director has indicated that policy issues remain the primary obstacle in negotiations between lawmakers and Governor Kathy Hochul. Last week, a budget extender was passed to keep the state running through Tuesday (April 15), when the legislature is expected to return to the State Capitol in Albany. Originally, lawmakers were set to take a two-week break for Passover and Easter.
Governor Hochul has stood firm on her policy demands, despite missing the April 1 budget deadline. She has proposed a $252 billion budget, but disagreements with fellow Democrats in the legislature have stalled progress. Key issues include changes to discovery laws, which set deadlines for evidence sharing in criminal cases, and proposals to make it easier to commit mentally ill individuals to psychiatric care. Hochul told reporters, "I'm not going to compromise my principles over a date." The legislature has passed a fourth budget extender to ensure state workers get paid, but lawmakers themselves have their paychecks withheld until a budget is finalized.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- AP Says Journalists Blocked From Oval Office After Judge’s Order – The Hill
- DOJ Charges Man In Arson Attacks On Tesla Showroom, Republican HQ In New Mexico - CNBC
- Harvard Rejects Trump Demands For Funding – The Hill
- Hegseth On Countering China: ‘We’ve Been Sort Of Asleep At The Wheel’ - Politico
- Judge Eases Ban On DOGE Staffer Accessing Sensitive U.S. Treasury Data - Forbes
- DOJ: Courts Have ‘No Authority’ To Force Abrego Garcia’s Return – The Hill
- US Trade War Could Divert Chinese Goods To European Markets – France 24
- El Salvador’s Bukele Says He Doesn’t Have Power to Return Mistakenly Deported Man - WSJ
- Trump To End Federal Funding Of Certain Non-Medical Services In Medicaid - STAT
- Suspect in Pennsylvania Governor’s Mansion Arson Charged With Attempted Murder, Terrorism - WSJ
- ‘We Are Flying Blind’: RFK Jr.’S Cuts Halt Data Collection On Abortion, Cancer, HIV And More - Politico
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
The 4 Basic Parenting Styles—And What Science Says About Which Is Best
While newfangled names for parenting styles, from tiger to panda, tend to conjure images of an unruly zoo, most are just trendy spins on one of four basic styles that have been referred to by professionals since the 1960s. That’s when clinical and developmental psychologist Diana Baumrind coined the three main categories of parenting styles, with a fourth being added by her later, in the 1980s, based on the work of Stanford researchers Eleanor Maccoby and John Martin.
These are the four parenting styles at the heart of all other styles, from helicopter to free-range, including guidance on how they all fit together—and which one is the best.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- Trump Floats Possible Exemption On Auto-Part Tariffs – Reuters
- Tariffs Will Hammer Solo Stove. Its Amish-Made Rival Is Ready. - WSJ
- ‘Protectionism Will Lead Nowhere’—Xi Snipes At US Tariffs As He Seeks Allies In Trade War - Forbes
- At China’s Wholesale Hub, U.S. Orders Have Suddenly Halted. One Example: Socks. - WSJ
- The White House’s 8 Big Tariff Flip-Flops Since ‘Liberation Day’ - Forbes
- Trump Threatens New Tariffs On Smartphones Days After Exempting Them - BBC
- Fed Governor Waller Sees Tariff Inflation As ‘Transitory’ In ‘Tush Push’ Comparison – CNBC
- Average Advertised Price Of Vehicles Back Above $50,000 As Tariff Reality Sets In, Discounts Wane – Automotive News
‘Tales of the Tariffs’: Council of Industry Member Share the Impact of Tariffs on Their Business
- Producto Resources Group (PECO)
Editors Note: The Council of Industry is collecting stories from its members chronicling the impacts (both negative and positive) of the ongoing and evolving implementation of new Tariffs. We will also share these stories with elected officials.
Producto Electric Corporation (PECO) has a 90-year history, as a family-owned business, of providing quality electrical conduit fittings & accessories to the US and Canada construction market. We used to have manufacturing/production capabilities for 65% of our business with our die cast and other machines but had to off-shore all but 20% of our production work in the early 2000’s to have a viable chance of survival in this global market.
Since 2018, Producto Electric Corporation (PECO) has reduced our purchasing from China from 70% of our raw materials and products, to 28%. In this commodity industry, the US manufacturing companies have not been price competitive. In fact, our US PVC suppliers in 2021 limited all domestic orders and could not fulfil 80% of our orders. As recently as October 2024, a US company who produces some of our explosion-proof line, received a larger order from us and went from a 6-week turnaround to 5 months – losing us tens of thousands in business. Domestic manufacturing, for this type of commodity product (malleable iron, steel, PVC, etc.) is not something the US should invest in as, even with exorbitant tariffs, it will not provide a cost competitive option – only have dramatic increases on construction and renovation project costs for businesses and homeowners. We would recommend strategic tariffs on China that start lower and grow over a 1 to 2-year period, for areas where there is the ability to push this business to Thailand, India, Vietnam, Taiwan and other countries that the US has strong diplomatic ties to. This will give our suppliers time to continue to move operations to other US trade partners, help our India foundries to grow their capacity and product options, and minimize the global dominance of China in these markets.
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Nvidia Plans To Manufacture AI Chips In The US For The First Time
Nvidia announced Monday that it will produce its artificial intelligence super computers in the United States for the first time. The tech giant said it has commissioned more than one million square feet of manufacturing space to build and test its specialized Blackwell chips in Arizona and AI supercomputers in Texas — part of an investment the company said will produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the next four years.
Nvidia said in a post on its website that it has started Blackwell production at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company chip plants in Phoenix. The Santa Clara, California-based chip company is also building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas — with Foxconn in Houston and Wistron in Dallas. Nvidia's AI super computers will serve as the engines for AI factories, “a new type of data center created for the sole purpose of processing artificial intelligence,” the company said, adding that manufacturing in the U.S. will create “hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive trillions of dollars in economic security over the coming decades."
Pfizer Scraps Daily Weight Loss Pill After Liver Injury In One Patient
Pfizer on Monday said it would end development of its experimental daily weight loss pill after a patient experienced a liver injury that was potentially caused by the drug in a trial. The patient did not experience any liver-related symptoms or side effects, a Pfizer spokesperson said in a statement. They added that the patient’s liver enzymes “recovered rapidly” after they stopped taking the pill, which is an oral GLP-1 drug called danuglipron. The statement suggests that the patient’s liver enzymes were elevated, which often indicates damage to cells in the organ and is an issue that has been linked to some other obesity drugs.
The case occurred in a trial that quickly increased the dose of the pill over a short period of time, the spokesperson said. Pfizer’s decision to halt development of the drug came after “a review of the totality of information, including all clinical data generated to date for danuglipron and recent input from regulators,” according to a release. “While we are disappointed to discontinue the development of danuglipron, we remain committed to evaluating and advancing promising programs in an effort to bring innovative new medicines to patients,” Dr. Chris Boshoff, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, said in the release. He added that the company is still developing other weight loss drugs.
Tariff Confusion Could Leave Aircraft Deliveries In Limbo
Cars, consumer goods, and industrial equipment have been delayed at ports, stuck on rail cars, and languished in warehouses at times over the last few months due to the White House's on-again, off-again tariff policy. Planes and their engines are usually ordered by U.S. buyers years in advance, and tariff confusion risks delaying shipments of both, even if the industry has not been directly targeted for duties. The frequent changes and added costs are stressing a supply chain that has wrestled with shortages of parts and labor.
Tariffs have rarely been an issue for aerospace. Aside from an 18-month transatlantic tariff war over Airbus and Boeing subsidies in 2020 and 2021, the industry has operated under a 1979 treaty guaranteeing zero-duty trading that includes the U.S. and Canada, but not Mexico. The tariff confusion has roiled the industry. Some shipments of RTX engines from one of its Canadian units to U.S. clients were temporarily delayed as the company procured paperwork to prove USMCA compliance, two senior industry executives said. RTX declined comment.
Tesla, GM, And Rivian Will Be Hurt Most By China's Critical Minerals Export Ban
Per the New York Times and Reuters, China ordered restrictions on exports of six rare earth metals that are only refined within the country on April 4. The metals, along with rare earth magnets, are used in everything from autos to aerospace products, with rare earth metals in particular used in magnets for EV motors. The suspension comes after President Trump ratcheted up his trade war with China with enhanced tariffs on April 2.
Top US EV manufacturers like Tesla, GM, Rivian, and Ford (F) are deeply exposed, as they assemble many motors for their vehicles in the US. Conversely, rivals like European, Japanese, and, to a lesser extent, Chinese manufacturers will benefit from their access to these important resources only available from China. Tesla has cut its use of rare earth metals in its motors by 25% and intends for its next-generation EVs to be rare-earth free. GM said it is "exploring options to limit or potentially eliminate rare earth materials in EV motors" but did not provide a timetable.
Oil Rises On Tariff Exemptions And Rebound In Chinese Imports
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after U.S. exclusions on some tariffs and Chinese data showing a sharp rebound in crude imports in March, but gains were capped by concerns that the trade war between the United States and China could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose by 83 cents, or 1.3%, to $65.59 a barrel by 1246 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 81 cents, or 1.3%, at $62.31.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down by 150,000 bpd from last month's forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026. It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 bpd year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.
ITIF: Small Modular Reactors Are Nuclear Power’s Future
If nuclear power is the future, small modular reactors (SMRs) are the pathway, potentially offering a flexible, scalable, always-available, potentially cost-effective means of generating clean energy. U.S. companies are currently at the cutting edge of SMR development and deployment, but competition from China, Russia, South Korea, and certain European companies is intensifying. For SMRs to achieve widespread adoption, they must eventually reach price and performance parity (P3) with conventional energy sources, especially fossil fuels. And to do that, they need to scale.
Unlike large reactors, initially high SMR costs may fall because they are designed to be built—partly or completely—in a factory, rather than constructed on-site. Large-scale factory production can exploit economies of scale and can also lead to faster production, another key advantage. That is the endgame for SMRs. The question is how to get there, and the role the U.S. government should play along the way.
Read more at Information Technology Innovation Foundation
Blue Origin Mission With All-Female Crew, Including Katy Perry, Completes Space Trip
Blue Origin's all-female crew, which included pop star Katy Perry, completed their trip into space Monday morning. The flight lasted around 11 minutes and traveled more than 60 miles above Earth, according to Blue Origin, passing the Kármán line, which at 62 miles above sea level is considered to be the boundary between Earth's atmosphere and outer space. Along with Perry, the crew included Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos' journalist fiancée, Lauren Sanchez, who is also a helicopter pilot.
Journalist Gayle King, former NASA rocket scientist Aisha Bowe, bioastronautics research scientist and civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen and filmmaker Kerianne Flynn rounded out the crew, according to Blue Origin. The Blue Origin mission marks the first all-female spaceflight since 1963, according to the company, following Soviet cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova’s solo spaceflight in 1963.