Member Briefing April 16, 2025
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity ‘Declined Modestly’ in April, Outlook Turns ‘Pessimistic’
Manufacturing activity fell for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the April survey. After dropping twenty-six points last month, the general business conditions index climbed twelve points but remained below zero at -8.1.
- The new orders and shipments indexes also held below zero at -8.8 and -2.9, respectively, pointing to ongoing declines in both orders and shipments.
- The inventories index came in at 7.4, signaling that business inventories continued to expand.
- Delivery times were unchanged, while the supply availability index fell to -5.7, suggesting supply availability was somewhat lower.
- The index for number of employees came in at -2.6, while the average workweek index fell to -9.1, pointing to little change in employment levels but a decline in hours worked.
- Both price indexes climbed for a fourth consecutive month to their highest levels in more than two years: the prices paid index rose six points to 50.8, and the prices received index rose six points to 28.7.
Meanwhile firms expect conditions to worsen in the months ahead, a level of pessimism that has only occurred a handful of times in the history of the survey. The index for future general business conditions fell twenty points to -7.4; the index has fallen a cumulative forty-four points over the past three months. New orders and shipments are expected to fall slightly in the months ahead. Capital spending plans were flat. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months.
NRF: Retail Sales Grew 4.75% in March
Consumers spent 4.75% more on retail purchases in March compared to a year ago. Total sales excluded autos and fuel and were compiled by Affinity Solutions for the National Retail Federation (NRF). Total sales were up 0.6% from the prior month. NRF said total sales were up 4.52% year over year for the first three months of 2025. Core sales that exclude restaurant receipts rose 5.07% in March from a year ago, up from a 4.11% gain in February. Core sales rose 4.96% for the first three months of 2025, NRF reports.
The uncertainty in tariffs has had some consumers buying ahead for items like clothing and household appliances in early March because they feared higher prices later from tariffs, according to a report from Prosper Insights and Analytics on behalf of NRF. “Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
NY Fed Survey: Unemployment Expectations Jump To Pandemic Levels
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey out Monday showed that American consumers are especially concerned about the job market. Mean unemployment expectations — basically, whether people think U.S. unemployment will be higher a year from now — jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44%, the highest reading since another uncertain time: April 2020. After years of a resilient labor market, this new data shows U.S. consumers are starting to feel shaky.
Shifts in economic policy are driving that insecurity, said Greg Wright, an economics professor at the University of California, Merced. That feeling isn’t caused by any one tariff, but rather the onslaught of tariff policy changes. “A lot of companies are probably at this point just taking a kind of wait-and-see attitude. And a wait-and-see attitude is kind of, you know, a slow-growth attitude,” Wright said. That uncertainty is seeping into consumer expectations, which can become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, said Luke Pardue, policy director at the Aspen Institute’s Economic Strategy Group. “When consumers are confident about their ability to have a job a year from now, they'll spend money, and then that creates the dynamics that allow for jobs growth,” he said.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Iran's Khamenei Neither 'Overly Optimistic Nor Pessimistic' About US Nuclear Talks – Reuters
- Another US Aircraft Carrier In Mideast Waters Ahead Of Second Round Of Iran-US Nuclear Talks - AP
- Syria's New 'Resistance' Takes on Israel and a US 'Axis of Evil' - Newsweek
- Hamas Says It Is Studying Proposal For Gaza Ceasefire, To Respond Soon - Reuters
- Hamas Rejects Israeli Ceasefire Disarmament Proposal, Palestinian Official Says - BBC
- U.S. Softens Position on Iranian Uranium Enrichment - WSJ
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Witkoff Says US ‘Finally’ Got Answer On Putin’s Demands For Peace – The Hill
- Russian Attack That Left Bodies Scattered On City Streets Is Not A ‘Mistake’ — It’s A Strategy - Politico
- Russia 'Isn't As Strong' As It Says, Captured Chinese Soldiers Say - Newsweek
- Inside North Korea’s Vast Operation To Help Russia’s War On Ukraine – Reuters
- EU Countries Push To Orbán Veto-Proof Russia Sanctions - Politico
- Russian Court Jails Five For Helicopter Arson And Sabotage 'At Ukraine's Behest,' TASS Reports - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- EU-UK Defense Deal In Sight At May Summit – Politico
- Inflation, Currency Woes Worsen Venezuela’s Complex Crisis As Maduro Declares ‘Economic Emergency’ - AP
- Milei End Argentina's Strict Controls On Currency And Capital – Yahoo Finance
- China Accuses U.S. Spy Agency of Winter Games Cyberattacks - WSJ
- Sweden Issues Update in China Cable Cutting Probe - Newsweek
- Merz To Visit Paris May 7, Officials Say - Politico
- What Trump Really Wants From Canada - BBC
- France To Expel 12 Algerian Diplomats, Recall Ambassador Amid Escalating Tensions – France 24
- Millions Tune In For 24-Hour Live Coverage Of Sweden’s Epic Moose Migration – AP
Policy and Politics
Hochul: Federal Spending Uncertainty, Market Volatility Are Not Pushing Her to Finish Overdue State Budget
Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday said the threats of drastic federal cuts and the instability of the market, spurred by President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war, is not pushing her to finish the state budget, now over two weeks late, any sooner. "We'll get it done," said Hochul, who continues to hold up negotiations to change the state's discovery law and expand involuntary commitment criteria in the spending plan. "We'll get there. We'll get the budget done, don't worry about that."
For weeks, top New York leaders have sounded the alarm about possible federal cuts — pushing Republicans in Congress to oppose a package that would deal a blow to the state budget and life-saving programs for New Yorkers. Congress passed a bill last week to cut trillions of dollars in taxes and government programs to reduce spending. “I can’t make up for $93 billion that we get from the federal government every year. It's not possible," Hochul told reporters on March 18. Several of those Republicans told Spectrum News 1 that New York's late budget shows the governor's inability to lead, and the high rate of spending is hurting New Yorkers more. "They have increased state spending by upwards of $100 billion over the last decade — that is unsustainable," said U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents New York's 17th Congressional District. "[And] at a time when New York leads the nation in outmigration, when its tax base is depleting, when businesses are leaving for other states."
Read more at NY State of Politics
Tariffs Could Have Positive Impact On Orange County Foreign Trade Zone
In recent years, Orange County Foreign Trade Zone #37 has had little to no business, but the tariffs imposed by the president to large numbers of countries around the world could be a boon to foreign businesses looking to import to the United States. Foreign trade zones allow companies to import products components duty-free and pay tariffs only after they have been assembled and removed from the zone. Orange County Economic Development Director Steven Gross said “People are starting to realize that FTZ 37 is open and it could provide benefits deferring trade tariffs, duties and other issues that they would be paying to import,” he said. “I think it is going to be the year for the foreign trade zone.”
In general, foreign-trade zones are specially designated sites located within a 60-mile radius of a U.S. port of entry, and are governed by the US FTZ Board and the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Orange County’s FTZ was formed in 1978 and now has subzones at various locations in the Hudson Valley Region. Special purpose FTZs, also known as “subzones,” are granted to individual companies whose needs cannot be accommodated by general purpose FTZs, such as manufacturing plants, oil refineries, and distribution facilities.
Read more at Mid-Hudson News and Orange County Government website
FTC and Meta Square Off in Antitrust Trial
Facebook owner Meta Platforms and the Federal Trade Commission squared off Monday in a trial that could shape the future of antitrust enforcement and force the tech giant to break itself up by selling Instagram and WhatsApp. The FTC called Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg as the first witness on Monday in the case, which is seeking to compel the company to undo its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, alleging it wields an illegal monopoly in social media. Forcing Meta to get rid of those two popular applications would devastate the company’s business, which relies heavily on serving ads to users of Instagram and Facebook.
“They decided that competition was too hard and it would be easier to buy out their rivals than to compete with them,” FTC attorney Daniel Matheson said of Meta’s leaders during his opening statement. Meta counters that the FTC’s case ignores how people use technology today. While Facebook and Instagram were once the default options for interacting online, they face stiff competition in the age of video from YouTube, TikTok and others.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- NBC Poll: MAGA Base Growing Within Republican Party – The Hill
- Federal Workers Jump at Buyout Offers They Once Shunned - Bloomberg
- US Arrests Co-Founder Of Palestinian Student Group At Columbia University - Politico
- Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump’s Bid To End Legal Status Of Migrants Granted Under Biden Program - Forbes
- Multiple Colleges Join Harvard in Fight Against Trump Admin - Newsweek
- Trump Threatens to Revoke Harvard’s Tax-Exempt Status - WSJ
- Administration Sued After Taking Down Public Spending Tracker – The Hill
- U.S. Freezes Billions in Funding After Harvard Says It Will Fight Trump’s Demands - WSJ
- JD Vance: Europe Can’t Be A ‘Permanent Security Vassal’ Of The US - Politico
- Why Were 6.3K Migrants Moved To Social Security’s ‘Death’ List? – The Hill
- How Medicaid Actually Works—and Three Ways Republicans Can Cut Funding - WSJ
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Is Covid Rewriting the Rules of Aging? Brain Decline Alarms Doctors
Five years after the pandemic’s start, millions of Americans are still struggling with long-lasting symptoms of Covid-19. Cognitive difficulties are among the most troubling and common symptoms in people both old and young. These ailments can be severe enough to leave former professionals like Ken Todd unable to work and even diagnosed with a form of mild cognitive impairment. Todd says he stopped working in 2023. When he tried to apply for jobs he realized he just didn’t have the physical or mental stamina. “It just exacerbated my symptoms,” he says.
Dr. Gabriel de Erausquin, a neurologist at University of Texas Health San Antonio, recently published a study that found the risk of moderate to severe cognitive impairment in older adults with long Covid was double that of younger ones. For those long-Covid patients over 57, the symptoms associated with cognitive difficulties look much like early dementia, he says. Beyond age, his research has found that long-Covid patients more susceptible to cognitive impairments share a certain number of genes, have a reduced size of some brain structures, and typically lose their sense of smell soon after a Covid-19 infection.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- US Steps Up Probes Into Pharmaceutical, Chip Imports, Setting Stage For Tariffs - Reuters
- Chinese Factories In Vietnam See ‘Crazy’ Surge In Orders Amid US Tariff Pause - SCMP
- Here’s What Polls Say About Trump’s Tariffs—As Americans Brace For Higher Prices – Forbes
- Trump Gave Automakers a Tariff Break. It’s Causing More Confusion. - WSJ
- Vance Says ‘Good Chance’ Of A UK-US Trade Deal - Politico
- Fedex’s China-To-US Fee Returns As It Preps For De Minimis Changes – Supply Chain Dive
- South Korea Announces Over $23 Billion For Chip Sector As Trump Tariffs On Semiconductor Imports Loom - CNBC
- The Trade War Uncovers New Economies Of Scale – Yahoo Finance
- At China's Largest Trade Fair, Exporters Say US Markets Are 'Frozen' - Reuters
- Fastenal Executives Detail Early Tariff-Related Moves – Industry Week
U.S. Businesses Sue To Block Trump Tariffs, Say Trade Deficits Are Not An Emergency
A group of five small businesses sued President Donald Trump on Monday, seeking to block new tariffs he has imposed on foreign imports in recent weeks. The lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade alleges that Trump has illegally usurped Congress’ power to levy tariffs by claiming that trade deficits with other countries constitute an emergency. “Congress has not delegated any such power,” the suit says. “The statute the President invokes — the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (‘IEEPA’) — does not authorize the President to unilaterally issue across-the-board worldwide tariffs.”
The plaintiffs include New York-based VOS Selections, which imports and distributes small-production wines, spirits, and sakes; FishUSA in Pennsylvania, a retail and wholesale e-commerce business making and selling sportfishing tackle and related gear; and Genova Pipe in Utah, which makes plastic pipe, conduit, and fittings for plumbing, irrigation, drainage, and electrical applications. MicroKits LLC in Virginia, which makes educational electronic kits and musical instruments, and Terry Precision Cycling, a Vermont-based brand of women’s cycling apparel, are also plaintiffs.
Honda To Make 90% Of US Sales Locally By Relocating Mexico, Canada Production, Nikkei Reports
Honda is considering switching some car production from Mexico and Canada to the United States, aiming for 90% of cars sold in the country to be made locally in response to new U.S. auto tariffs, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday. Japan's second-biggest automaker by sales plans to increase U.S. vehicle production by as much as 30% over two to three years in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to put a 25% levy on imported vehicles, Nikkei said. Honda posted a 5% rise in U.S. sales to almost 352,000 vehicles in the first three months of this year.
In the weeks before the new U.S. levy went into effect, Reuters had already reported that Honda plans to make its next-generation Civic hybrid in the U.S. state of Indiana, instead of Mexico, to avoid potential tariffs. The U.S. was Honda's biggest market last year, accounting for nearly 40% of global sales. The automaker sold 1.4 million vehicles, including Acura models, in the U.S. last year. It imported about two-fifths of those cars from Canada or Mexico.
China Reportedly Halts Boeing Jet Deliveries
Chinese officials told domestic airlines not to place new orders for Boeing jets and are requiring carriers to seek approval before taking delivery of already-ordered aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter. The tariff turmoil keeps getting worse for America’s largest exporter: Boeing’s vast and fragile supply chain is grappling with the end of its decadeslong duty-free status. Boeing faces retaliatory tariffs from other countries. And airlines are bracing for a drop in demand for air travel.
The developments add new pressure to the struggling jet maker, which burned through $14 billion last year and had aimed to be cash-flow positive by the end of this year. In the long run, the new tariff landscape could give a leg up to Boeing’s European archrival, Airbus. China is forecast to be Boeing’s largest market over the next two decades. Boeing would take a $1.2 billion hit if China halted all deliveries this year, according to an estimate by equity research firm Bernstein. The jet maker reported $67 billion in revenue last year. Of the 130 airplanes Boeing delivered globally this year through March, 18 went to Chinese airlines.
U.S.′ Inability To Replace Rare Earths Supply From China Poses A Threat To Its Defense, Warns CSIS
Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets used in defense, energy and automotive technologies. The new restrictions — which encompass the medium and heavy rare earth elements samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export the resources.
As China effectively holds a monopoly over the supply of global heavy rare earths processing, such restrictions pose a serious threat to the U.S., particularly its defense technology sector. Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements. According to CSIS’s report, if China’s trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports, the U.S. will be incapable of filling the gap.
Manufacturing Plant Closures And Layoffs From Merck, Post, STMicroelectronics, And Others
A number of manufacturers are restructuring in response to shrinking margins, supply chain disruptions, and unpredictable markets.
- STMicroelectronics has announced a global restructuring plan that will result in up to 2,800 voluntary workforce reductions over the next three years, primarily occurring in 2026 and 2027.
- Grede LLC will close its manufacturing plant in Brewton, Alabama, resulting in the layoff of up to 220 employees. The company plans to begin transferring operations to other U.S. facilities by mid-2025, with all manufacturing in Alabama ending by year’s end.
- Post Holdings, Inc. announced plans to close two Post Consumer Brands cereal manufacturing plants located in Cobourg, Ontario and Sparks, Nevada, affecting approximately 300 employees.
- Merck will lay off 163 employees at its Cherokee manufacturing plant in Riverside, Pennsylvania, as part of a planned site closure by 2026. The layoffs will occur in three phases, beginning in May 2025, with additional rounds in mid-2025 and final separations expected in 2026.
- CNH Industrial is laying off approximately 198 hourly workers at its Case New Holland manufacturing plant in Fargo, North Dakota, due to current and anticipated market conditions.
Intel To Sell Majority Stake In Altera For $4.46B
Intel is selling its majority stake in programmable chip maker Altera as the beleaguered semiconductor company works to rightsize its finances. The roughly $4.46 billion sale to private equity firm Silver Lake will give the tech-focused investment company 51% control of Altera, while Intel will retain a 49% stake. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2025. Upon closing, Altera will establish its operational independence, becoming the largest pure-play field programmable gate array semiconductor maker, according to Intel.
Intel bought Altera a decade ago for $16.7 billion, roughly double what the company is valued at now, $8.75 billion. Altera generated $1.54 billion in revenue last fiscal year, according to Intel. Intel is also in the midst of cutting 15% of its workers in a bid to save $10 billion over the course of a year. As part of the announcement, Intel also named Raghib Hussain, president of products and technologies for semiconductor developer Marvell, as CEO of Altera, replacing CEO Sandra Rivera. Hussain will step down from his position at Marvell effective May 2, according to a securities filing.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
World Oil Demand, U.S. Supply To Grow More Slowly On Tariff Tensions, IEA Says
Global oil demand will grow at its slowest rate for five years in 2025 and U.S. production rises will also taper off, due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on trading partners and their retaliatory moves, the International Energy Agency said. Trump's tariffs, along with a supply hike by OPEC+ producers, have driven a steep slide in oil prices this month, cutting revenue for producers. The U.S. oil industry, despite calls by Trump to "drill baby drill", may actually slow activity, the IEA said.
World oil demand this year will rise by 730,000 barrels per day, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report on Tuesday, a sharp cut from 1.03 million bpd expected last month. The reduction is larger than a cut made on Monday by producer group OPEC. "The deteriorating outlook for the global economy amid the sudden sharp escalation in trade tensions in early April has prompted a downgrade to our forecast for oil demand growth this year," the IEA said. "Roughly half of this downgrade occurs in the United States and China, with most of the remainder in trade-oriented Asian economies."
New AI Model Predicts 44 Earth-Like Planets — And It’s 99% Accurate
Researchers at the University of Bern and the National Centre of Competence in Research PlanetS (NCCR PlanetS), Switzerland, have developed a machine learning-powered Earth-like planet predictor that identifies planetary systems that could harbor Earth-like planets. The model could significantly accelerate and thus revolutionize the search for habitable planets. These so-called exoplanets have the potential to host life. An exoplanet is any planet that orbits a star other than the sun. An Earth-like exoplanet orbits its star in the so-called habitable zone, where liquid water can exist on its surface. That's where planetary scientists think extraterrestrial life is most likely to be found.
The AI performed spectacularly well when applied to data on planetary systems with known properties and potential Earth-like planets. “The model identified 44 systems that are highly likely to harbor undetected Earth-like planets,” said Dr. Jeanne Davoult, lead author of a paper published this week in Astronomy & Astrophysics. “A further study confirmed the theoretical possibility for these systems to host an Earth-like planet,” said Davoult. According to Davoult, the algorithm achieves precision values of up to 0.99, which means that “99% of the systems identified by the machine learning model have at least one Earth-like planet.”