Member Briefing April 22, 2025
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Decline In March But Do Not Point to Recession
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5 (2016=100), after a decline of 0.2% (revised up from –0.3%) in February. The LEI also fell by 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March 2025, a smaller rate of decline than its –2.3% contraction over the previous six months (March–September 2024). “The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements:
Consumer expectations dropped further
Stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022
New orders in manufacturing softened
The data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised its US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.
Read more at the Conference Board
Trump Ramps Up Attacks On Powell, Demands ‘Loser’ Fed Chair Lower Rates ‘NOW’
President Donald Trump on Monday ratcheted up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and warning that the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately. ″‘Preemptive Cuts’ in Interest Rates are being called for by many,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump claimed that there is currently “virtually No Inflation” in the U.S., and that costs for energy and “most other ‘things’” are on the decline. Trump’s latest salvo against Powell — whom he appointed during his first administration — came as the president and his team are studying whether they can legally fire the central bank leader before his term expires in May 2026. Powell has flatly stated that the president cannot remove him under the law.
Trump’s latest attacks on Powell followed the central bank leader’s suggestion last week that the president’s trade war will constrain growth and could fuel inflation. Tariffs are “likely to move us further away from our goals ... probably for the balance of this year,” Powell said at the Economic Club of Chicago. Powell also stopped short of suggesting that interest rate cuts were on the horizon. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” he said.
Trump Is Everywhere Except in the Economic Data
Imagine you didn’t follow the news or social media and watched the world only through economic data. You would not have guessed the White House changed hands in January. President Trump’s deportations, tariffs, federal layoffs and funding suspensions have generated nonstop headlines and frayed confidence, yet left surprisingly little trace on the economy. Hiring, spending and inflation look a lot like they did under Joe Biden.
The disconnect is deeply disorienting. United Airlines, calling the economic environment “impossible to predict,” this past week issued two outlooks for earnings: one with recession, and one without. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal think that hiring will slow sharply this year and that inflation will shoot up. So far, there’s little evidence of either. Job growth has averaged 173,000 over the past two months combined, almost the same as that of the prior six months. The unemployment rate has averaged 4.2%, a tenth of a point higher than the prior six months. Both overall inflation and the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying price pressures have averaged a tenth of a point less.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Hopes For Iran Nuclear Talks Tempered By Threats And Mixed Messages – BBC
- Trump May Get A Nuclear Deal — On Iran’s Terms - Politico
- Father Of American Hostage In Gaza Hopeful He Is Still Alive - Reuters
- 'Professional Failures' Led To Killing Of Gaza Medics, IDF Inquiry Says - BBC
- Israel Cancels Visas For 27 French Left-Wing Lawmakers Ahead Of Visit – France 24
- Houthis Send Defiant Warning to Trump: "Quagmire" - Newsweek
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Welcomes U.S. Proposal to Deny NATO Membership to Ukraine – WSJ
- US May Meet Wednesday With Ukraine, Europe Allies on Peace Plan - Bloomberg
- Trump's Reported Plan to Recognize Crimea as Russian Sparks Fury - Newsweek
- Kyiv Is On the Clock to Respond to Trump Plan to End Ukraine Conflict - WSJ
- Ukraine Reports Many Russian Drone Attacks After Truce Ends - BBC
- Trump Hopes Russia and Ukraine Will Make a Deal 'This Week' - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Philippines, US Launch Joint Combat Drills In 'Full Battle Test' - Reuters
- Germany Bets On Volunteers To Fix A Hollowed-Out Army — But Will It Work?
- The Next Pope: Who Are The Frontrunners to Succeed Pope Francis? - Newsweek
- Breakdown In U.S.-China Relations Raises Specter Of New Cold War - WSJ
- El Salvador Offers Venezuela Prisoner Swap Involving US Deportees - BBC
- JD Vance Was Among Last to Meet Pope Francis - WSJ
- China Sanctioning US Officials Over Hong Kong – The Hill
- Sweden Has the Tanks. Finland Has the Troops. Welcome to the Pan-Nordic Army. - WSJ
- China Shows Off New Warplanes in Drills With U.S. Ally Egypt – Newsweek
Policy and Politics
Poll: Most Predict NYS Budget in Early May, More Than a Full Month Late
Gov. Kathy Hochul has said that she’s willing to hold up the state budget for as long as it takes to get legislative leaders to agree to her policy proposals – but most City & State readers expect the budget to be wrapped up in the next couple weeks. More than 380 people entered City & State’s 2025 state budget poll. Most readers expect that the budget will be finalized in the last week of April. In fact, more than a third of all guesses were for somewhere between April 24 and April 30.
If budget negotiations drag into May, as City & State has reported they might, readers expect them to be wrapped up relatively quickly in the month. Of the 133 people who guessed that the budget would be finished sometime in May, 51 guessed it would be finished between May 1 and May 3. Fortunately, few people seem to think we’re headed back to the bad old days of the Pataki administration, when budgets weren’t finished until the late summer. Only 11 people guessed that the budget would be finalized in June, July or August.
US Supreme Court Hears Clash Over Obamacare Preventive Care
The U.S. Supreme Court is set on Monday to consider the legality of a provision of the Obamacare law, formally called the Affordable Care Act, that helps ensure that health insurers cover preventive medical care such as cancer screenings at no cost to patients. The federal government has appealed a lower court's determination that the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, which under Obamacare has a major hand in choosing what services will be covered, is composed of members who were not validly appointed. Its 16 members are appointed by the U.S. secretary of health and human services without Senate confirmation.
The task force is made up of medical experts who serve four-year terms on a volunteer basis. It reviews medical evidence and public feedback and issues recommendations about which preventive services would be most effective for detecting illnesses earlier or addressing ailments before a patient's condition worsens. The case centers on whether the Preventive Services Task Force wields power to such an extent that its members must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the U.S. Senate, as required by the U.S. Constitution's Appointments Clause, rather than the current arrangement. The Supreme Court's decision is expected by the end of June.
U.S. Halts Construction Of Giant Wind Farm Off Long Island
U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum has ordered a halt to an offshore wind project near the coast of Long Island. Today, Equinor, the Norwegian energy company that owns and operates the project, announced it is complying with the order and suspending all construction. President Trump, a longtime critic of wind energy, issued a moratorium on new development of offshore wind projects, one of his first executive orders upon returning to the White House. The halting of Empire Wind 1 disrupts a much-needed electricity supply to a region with growing power demands for things like data centers, says Kit Kennedy, managing director for power at the Natural Resources Defense Council. " This is the kind of energy dominance that the U.S. needs. That the Trump administration should be supporting," she says. New York has a goal of developing 9,000 megawatts in offshore wind energy by 2035. That goal is now at risk, Eisenson says. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul wrote in a statement that Burgum's order stands to threaten 1,000 union worker jobs.
The offshore wind project, called Empire Wind 1, was supposed to supply power to 500,000 homes in New York. The federal lease for the project was signed during the first Trump administration in 2017. Much of the federal permitting for this project happened during the Biden administration. In a letter to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the lead federal agency for permitting offshore wind projects, Burgum wrote that "approval for the project was rushed through by the prior administration without sufficient analysis."
Trump’s First 100 Days
- The White House Is Looking To Replace Pete Hegseth As Defense Secretary – NPR
- Vance Arrives In India, To Hold Talks With Modi Under US Tariffs Shadow - Reuters
- Hegseth Faces Heat After New Signal Chat Emerges and Claim of Pentagon ‘Chaos’ - WSJ
- Obamacare Returns To SCOTUS, With Preventive Care On The Line - Politico
- Duffy Threatens New York Funding After Congestion Pricing Deadline Passes Without Changes – The Hill
- Venezuelan Migrants Seek Further Deportation Protections After Supreme Court Ruling - Reuters
- Trump Draft Executive Order Would Make Sweeping Changes To The U.S. State Department - CNBC
- The Top 10 Democratic Contenders For 2028 – The Hill
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Study Links Cannabis Use To Increased Dementia Risk
Sunday was 420 day, when lovers of marijuana get together to celebrate their fondness for weed. Yet research shows that regular users of marijuana are at risk for serious conditions, including strokes, heart attacks, cardiac arrhythmias, heart failure and myocarditis, which is an inflammation of the heart muscle. Now, an increased risk of dementia can be added to the list, according to a large study of more than 6 million people published April 14 in the journal JAMA Neurology.
“Someone who has an emergency room visit or hospitalization due to cannabis has a 23% increased risk of dementia within five years compared to someone who was at the hospital for another reason. They have a 72% greater risk compared to the general population,” said study coauthor Dr. Daniel Myran, an assistant professor in the department of family medicine at the University of Ottawa in Canada. “Those numbers have already factored out other reasons for dementia, such as age, sex, mental health or substance use, and whether or not you have chronic conditions such as diabetes or heart disease,” Myran said. Earlier research shows marijuana users are nearly 25% more likely to need emergency care and hospitalization than nonusers.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy – The Economist
- Trump Tariffs Lead To Surge Of Companies Parking Imports In Tax-Free ‘Foreign Trade Zones’ - CNBC
- US-China Tariff Escalation Disrupts Rare Earth Exports And Puts Pressure On Automotive Supply Chains – Automotive Logistics
- EU Explores Tweaking Methane Rules For US Gas To Help Trade Talks, Sources Say - Reuters
- Avoiding A Trade War With The U.S. Appears To Be Simple: Just Don’t Fight Back. - WSJ
- Japan To Put Car Safety Standards On Table In Trump Tariffs Talks – Nikkei Asia
- China Vows Retaliation Against Countries That Follow U.S. Calls To Isolate Beijing - CNBC
- Trump Is Waging War on the U.S. Trade Deficit—But Does It Need Fixing? - WSJ
- Mazda to Pause US Production of CX-50 Cars Destined for Canada – Bloomberg
Cutting Tool Demand Weakens Amid Trade Uncertainty
Shipments of cutting tools to machine shops and U.S. machine shops and other manufacturing businesses were nearly unchanged from January to February, dropping -0.7% to $198.6 million. Of greater concern may be the -9.2% drop in shipments from February 2024. The data from the monthly Cutting Tool Market Report functions as a reliable index to overall manufacturing activity, as cutting tools represent large consumable purchases in support of automotive, aerospace, energy, and numerous other industrial sectors.
“Significant declines in year-over-year totals suggest a lack of confidence in current markets,” stated Steve Boyer, president of the U.S. Cutting Tool Institute. “While we have gained some clarity in our country’s leadership, the policies – specifically the full impact of imposed tariffs – cannot yet be gauged.” The February CTMR results also show that the two-month total for 2025 cutting-tool shipments totaled $398.4 million, down -6.7% versus the same period of 2024. “I believe any optimism we may have had entering 2025 will be delayed until we learn more about the tariffs and their effects on the major markets we serve,” Boyer concluded.
Read more at American Machinist
Boeing Eases Latest 737 MAX Headache - A Shortage Of Nuts And Bolts
Boeing has secured new stocks of specialized nuts and bolts that hold together its top-selling commercial jet, two industry sources told Reuters, avoiding for now any slowdown in U.S. plane production due to a fire at a key supplier's factory. Boeing had been running low on specific fasteners used to attach the landing gear on its 737 MAX jets because of the February fire, but secured new supplies in recent weeks, albeit at higher prices, one of the sources said. Boeing and other aerospace firms have been scrambling for nuts since a fire gutted a huge factory in the Philadelphia area run by SPS Technologies, a critical source of fasteners.
As dwindling fastener supplies threaten the broader aerospace industry, some producers of the nuts taking on contracts to provide alternate supply are hiking prices to reflect rising costs of materials and labor, a third senior industry source said. The price of some specialized fasteners, which currently cost hundreds of dollars apiece, could rise by double-digit percentages, one executive said.
Airbus Promised a Green Aircraft. That Bet Is Now Unraveling.
Five years ago, Airbus made a bold bet: The plane maker would launch a zero-emissions, hydrogen-powered aircraft within 15 years that, if successful, would mark the biggest revolution in aviation technology since the jet engine. Now, Airbus is pulling the brakes. The company has cut the project’s budget by a quarter, reallocated staff and sent remaining engineers back to the drawing board, delaying its plans by as much as a decade. Airbus’s reckoning with hydrogen adds to the lineup of companies now recalibrating green efforts that they rushed to embrace in recent years.
Airbus has spent more than $1.7 billion on the project, according to people familiar with the matter, but over the past year concluded that technical challenges and a slow uptake of hydrogen in the wider economy meant the jet wouldn’t be ready by 2035. The setback is a blow for the dream of clean aviation, which governments, investors and customers have pushed the industry to tackle. Airbus says the past five years of work and money haven’t been wasted. The company has established that hydrogen is technically feasible and delaying the project will give it more time to fine-tune the technology, executives said. “Our destination is not changing,” Bruno Fichefeux, Airbus’s head of future programs, said in an interview. “To get there, we need to adjust to reality.”
Gold Surges To A Record Above $3,400 As Trump Threatens Fed Independence
Gold futures jumped 3.15% to $3,433.10 per ounce by 9:56 a.m. ET on Monday, with investors buying the precious metal as the dollar hit a three-year low. Gold has jumped about 30% since the start of the year and more than 8% since Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on April 2. Trump said last Thursday that Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough,” after the U.S. central bank chief warned that the president’s tariffs will likely increase inflation in the near term. Trump is looking into whether he can fire Powell, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Friday.
Gold has been on a tear this year as confidence in the U.S. falls and central banks buy up the precious metal. Citi sees gold prices rallying to $3,500 over the next three months as investment demand outstrips supply from mining. “We estimate that tariff-related US and global growth concerns are likely to continue to combine with strong central bank and other institutional demand,” analysts led by Kenny Hu told clients in a recent note.
Leading Cyberattack Against Manufacturing Sets Record In Q1
Ransomware, consistently a leading cyber weapon pointed at U.S. manufacturing, had a record first quarter of 2025, with a 102% spike in victims and a more than 50% increase in the number of groups carrying out that type of data incursion, according to a new report by Herndon, Virginia-based GuidePoint Security. Another release out this week by San Francisco-based cybersecurity and "exposure management" provider Armis reported that nearly three quarters of IT decision-makers globally, including those based with manufacturers, express concern that nation-state actors are using AI to develop more sophisticated and targeted cyberattacks.
Manufacturing was ranked by the IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Report as the top targeted sector for the third year in a row last year, and this trend apparently is continuing in 2025. This week, GuidePoint’s Ransomware and Cyber Threat Report for Q1 2025 revealed an all-time high for the report of 2,063 ransomware victims (a 102% increase) and some 70 active ransomware groups (a 55.5% year-over-year spike). “This record-breaking quarter was no coincidence,” said Grayson North, principal security consultant for the report.“We’re tracking more active ransomware and extortion groups than ever before, with a noticeable rise in high-volume attacks from emerging players formed out of disrupted gangs, like LockBit and AlphV. The pressing question now is whether this surge represents a residual short-term spike or the beginning of a dark year for ransomware victims.”
Nike’s Struggle To Move Production From Asia Is A Cautionary Tale
President Trump is betting that the threat of stiff tariffs on low-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere will pressure American companies to bring manufacturing—and jobs—back to the U.S. But high U.S. labor costs mean companies would have to find ways to replace human workers with machines. For some industries, that has proved surprisingly difficult. Indeed, a yearslong effort by Nike to shift part of its manufacturing from China, Indonesia and Vietnam to North America illustrates how tough it is for U.S. brands to wean themselves off the flexible, low-cost contract manufacturers that use armies of laborers to churn out an array of products for American consumers.
Starting in 2015, Nike poured millions into an ambitious effort to partly automate what has always been a highly labor-intensive industry. At the time, rising labor costs in China and advances in manufacturing techniques such as 3-D printing opened the possibility of finding a new way to make shoes that would rely on fewer workers. The robots, however, struggled to handle the soft, squishy and stretchy parts that are integral to shoemaking. Shoe fabrics also expand and contract depending on the temperature, while in shoemaking no two soles are exactly alike. Human workers can adapt to such challenges, but it proved difficult for machines.
NASA’s Lucy Spacecraft Phones Home After ‘Peculiar’ Asteroid Encounter
NASA’s Lucy spacecraft has successfully completed a flyby of a three-mile-wide asteroid between Mars and Jupiter. Called (52246) Donaldjohanson, it’s the second of 11 asteroids the spacecraft will visit in the remaining eight years of its epic mission. According to NASA, Lucy flew within 596 miles (960 kilometers) of the three-mile-wide asteroid on Sunday, April 20, at 1:51 p.m. EDT. Lucy had to shield its sensitive instruments from intense sunlight during the flyby. It ceased tracking the asteroid 40 seconds before its closest approach to prevent its cameras from being damaged.
Donaldjohanson is thought to have been sliced off a bigger asteroid about 150 million years ago and rotate every 251 hours. It’s thought to be carbon-rich and be about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) in diameter. It orbits the sun in the solar system’s Main Asteroid Belt. The aim of Lucy’s flyby was to test the spacecraft and make sure its scientists are well prepared for the mission’s main target — the Jupiter Trojan asteroids, which it will make its first visit to in 2027. No Trojan asteroid has been visited before. Trojan asteroids are a group of primordial bodies that orbit the sun in two distinct groups, both behind and ahead of Jupiter. Often called “Jupiter's children,” Trojans are thought to be fossils from the formation and evolution of the planets and the solar system.
The 10 Best Cars at the 2025 New York Auto Show
The 125th edition of the New York International Auto Show opened to the public Friday, April 18. The 10-day event—the oldest and largest of its kind held in the U.S.—may be well past its prime, but it no longer feels like it’s on life support, as it did in 2024. This year, the convention’s main floor is back to being fully packed with major automakers from the U.S. and abroad. Companies such as Ford, Genesis, and Lucid have brought the very best of their latest crop of vehicles, which means there’s something for every kind of car buff, whether their taste runs toward forgotten classics, exemplified by a beautifully restored VW Microbus, or outrageous sports cars, as seen with the new Chevy Corvette ZR-1.
Robb Report got the chance to tour the convention floor during a press preview earlier this week. Here are the ten vehicles that really stuck out to us.