Member Briefing April 21, 2025
Pope Francis Dies Aged 88
Pope Francis, the first non-European pontiff in nearly 1,300 years, died on Easter Monday. He was 88 years old. Pope Francis spent his final days in service of the church, participating as much as he could in the celebration of Easter, the high point of the Christian calendar. The Vatican’s announcement would have come as a shock to many, coming less than a day after the pope made a high-profile appearance in public. Just before that, he held a brief meeting with US Vice President JD Vance.
He was born Jorge Mario Bergoglio on December 17, 1936, in Buenos Aires. He was the grandson of Italians who emigrated to Argentina during the Depression, and was born into a middle-class family in the Buenos Aires neighbourhood of Flores. He was ordained a priest in the Jesuit order in 1969. From 1973-79 he was the order's top leader in Argentina. He became an auxiliary bishop of Buenos Aires in 1992 and the city's archbishop in 1998. He was made a cardinal in 2001 by Pope John Paul II.
His death prompts a period of mourning, after which all cardinals under the age of 80 will convene to pick the next leader of the Catholic Church. It typically takes between two and three weeks for a new pope to be chosen.
The Pope’s Life in Pictures - BBC
Manufacturing Business Confidence Plummets in April
Manufacturing pessimism has spiked dramatically in April as industrial producers deal with changing tariff plans and try to assess how global trade policy will impact their costs and operations in the coming months.Several surveys released this week show huge swings in business confidence between January, when most manufacturers had a positive outlook for near-term conditions and the full year, and April, when sentiment changed for the much, much worse.
- In the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly “Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey,” in January about 39% of businesses reported plans to increase capital spending this year to improve operations — a figure similar to high points reached in 2017 and during the COVID recovery in 2021. In April, that figure fell to 2%. For context, that metric went negative during inflation run-ups during 2023 and during the financial crisis in 2009 but only fell to 9.7% at the worst of the COVID declines.
- In New York, the Fed’s “Empire State Manufacturing Survey” showed a similar decline, dropping to 1.6% of businesses with capital spending increases planned, down from 9.2% in March.
- The Equipment Leasing Finance Association (ELFA), an organization that represents lenders that help manufacturers obtain new capital equipment for factories saw a dramatic fall in optimism. In March, more than half of manufacturers surveyed by that group expected capital spending to increase or stay about the same in the next four months. By April, more than 61% said they expect spending to fall.
The ELFA survey also noted a massive rise in pessimism on the general health of the U.S. economy. When asked in March what they expected for the next six months, manufacturers were generally positive or neutral, with nearly one-third expecting conditions to improve and about one-quarter saying they expected things to worsen. Asked the same question in April, more than half (57.7%) said they expected conditions to worsen.
U.S. Small Manufacturers Hope To Benefit From Tariffs, But Some Worry About Uncertainty
Drew Greenblatt is fully on board with the Trump administration’s use of tariffs to rebalance a global trading system that it says favors foreign companies over U.S. manufacturers. Greenblatt is the president and owner of Marlin Steel Wire Products in Baltimore, Maryland, which makes baskets and racks for medical device manufacturers, aerospace companies, food processing companies and others. Currently, it’s hard to compete with baskets made overseas., Greenblatt says, because the countries he competes against have an “unfair advantage.” For example, due to European tariffs and taxes, it costs much more for a German consumer or company to buy Marlin wire baskets than it does for Americans to buy a German-made basket, creating an uneven playing field, Greenblatt said.
While other small manufacturing businesses also support the tariffs, other owners have concerns. The Trump tariffs threaten to upend the existing economic order and possibly push the global economy into recession. And the uneven rollout of the policy has created uncertainty for businesses, financial markets and U.S. households.
Out of the Tariff Turmoil, a Few Winners Emerge
Most businesses are struggling to respond to President Trump’s tariff blitz, but higher trade barriers are creating opportunities for some small U.S. companies. Trump’s zigzag on trade policies has left many businesses guessing. On April 2, he imposed tariffs on almost all U.S. imports. Trump later boosted the level of these “reciprocal” tariffs on China, and issued a 90-day pause on tariffs above 10% for other countries.
Many small U.S. businesses said they are being roiled by the trade barriers. The potential winners report a jump in inquiries and requests for quotation, and a smaller uptick in closed sales, making it difficult to know how large or long-lasting any tariff-related gains will be. During the pandemic, some U.S. manufacturers saw orders climb as overseas supply chains snarled. But the gains often prove short-lived, as customers resumed normal buying patterns as shipping lanes and the global economy reopened. The Wall Street Journal shares some examples of companies seeing and uptick including Ellwood Group, a maker of forged steel, nickel and aluminum products and Duke Manufacturing, an aerospace machine shop.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Netanyahu Vows To Continue War In Gaza Despite Growing Opposition At Home – CNN
- U.S. Toughens Demands on Syria’s New Islamist-Led Leadership - WSJ
- Houthis Warn Saudi Arabia and UAE Will Pay Price if They Back New Offensive - Newsweek
- Israeli Probe Finds Failures, Breaches of Orders After Soldiers Kill 15 Gaza Aid Workers - WSJ
- Iran Says Talks With U.S. to Continue After ‘Positive’ Meeting in Rome - CNN
- A Depleted Hamas Is So Low on Cash That It Can’t Pay Its Fighters - WSJ
- US Strikes On A Yemeni Oil Port Kill 74 People, Houthis Say, In Deadliest Attack Of Trump Campaign - AP
- Gaza Heads Into Deepening War a Month After Ceasefire Collapse - Newsweek
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukraine And US Ink Memorandum On Rare Earths – Politico
- Putin Declares Brief ‘Easter Truce’ In War, But Ukraine Says It Is Still Under Attack - CNN
- Moscow Eyes Return Of Foreign Business – Seeking Alpha
- Russian missile attack kills one, wounds 82 in Ukraine's Kharkiv, officials say - Reuters
- France Says Ukraine Ceasefire Must ‘Start From Reality’ After US Meetings - Politico
- U.S. Will Pause Ukraine Peace Efforts If No Progress, Rubio Warns - WSJ
- Rubio And Witkoff Met Ukrainian And European Officials For Landmark Talks On Ukraine’s Future – The Hill
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Pope Francis Makes Brief Easter Appearance, Calls For Gaza Ceasefire - CNBC
- European Central Bank Cuts Rates By A Quarter Point – Wells Fargo
- US Weapons Left In Afghanistan Sold To Militant Groups, Sources Tell BBC - BBC
- A Look At Why An Island-Wide Blackout Hit Puerto Rico And What Caused It - AP
- US-China Military Rivalry Flares in the Middle East - Newsweek
- Ecuador Opposition Candidate, Doubling Down On Fraud Claims, Loses Coalition Backing - Reuters
- China's Fiscal Revenue Falls 1.1% In January-March – Yahoo Finance
- Japan Inflation Comes In At 3.6%, Surpasses BOJ Target For Three Straight Years - CNBC
- Where Things Stand In The Canadian Election, With 10 Days Until Polls Close– Politico
Policy and Politics
Manufacturing Extension Partnerships Regain Funding, for Now
The Trump administration is restoring funding to Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) programs that it cancelled at the beginning of the month, reversing a decision that drew widespread condemnation from the manufacturing community. At the end of March, funding for 10 state MEP initiatives expired, and the government’s controlling agency, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, chose not to renew them, a move that took those state agencies and national groups by surprise. Other MEP leaders said they believed the March funding cuts were only the first and that all MEP programs would lose funding as their contracts expired.
On Friday, a spokesman said, “After further review and consideration, NIST has determined it will renew the funding for these 10 centers through the end of the fiscal year as NIST and the Department continue to evaluate plans for the program.” While some people in the manufacturing community have criticized MEP initiatives for wasting public money in recent years, the abrupt funding loss to the 10 centers drew a sharp response from the business community with regional MEP programs urging their members to reach out to lawmakers and defend the program.
President Donald Trump Escalates His Long-Running Feud With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s yearlong feud escalated Thursday as the president urged Powell’s “termination” and is reportedly discussing firing the central banker, the latest example of Trump testing the limits of the historic relationship between the Oval Office and the Fed and bringing questions of whether Trump has the authority to oversee such a “termination.”
The Wall Street Journal reported last week the president has privately proposed firing Powell dating back to at least February, according to multiple anonymous sources, who said Trump discussed the potential Powell ouster with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who Trump would seek as a replacement, though Warsh advised against a firing. Trump actually tapped Powell to the Fed chief role in 2017, but he quickly soured on him, as Bloomberg reported Trump talked about firing him in December 2018; following that report, Trump said in a statement posted to then Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's social media he “never suggested firing Chairman Jay Powell, nor do I believe I have the right to do so.”
Republicans Consider Increasing Taxes On The Rich In Break From Party Orthodoxy
Republicans in Congress are considering increasing taxes on the rich as a part of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” of ambitious legislative priorities, a striking development that breaks with decades of party orthodoxy and is spurring alarm bells from traditional conservatives. One idea being discussed is a roughly 40 percent top tax bracket on income above $1 million, one House Republican confirmed to The Hill. Bloomberg News first reported that proposal.
The discussions are in the early stages, and lawmakers say it is possible that no tax hike makes it in the final legislation. But the once-inconceivable consideration of tax increases underscores the tricky task that Republicans have in meeting competing demands from fiscal hawks, moderates and tax slashers for the ambitious party-line bill — as well as the rise of populist instincts in the party.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Trump’s Approval Rating On The Economy Drops To Lowest Of His Presidential Career, CNBC Survey Finds – CNBC
- Four Immigration Cases Are Testing the Limits of Trump’s Power - WSJ
- Supreme Court Blocks Deportation Of Venezuelans From Texas - Yahoo
- Head of I.R.S. Being Ousted Amid Treasury’s Power Struggle With Elon Musk - NYT
- Supreme Court Will Hear Arguments On Trump’s Effort To End Birthright Citizenship – SCOTUS Blog
- Trump Threatens Harvard’s Ability to Enroll International Students - WSJ
- Anti-Trump Protesters Turn Out For Rallies In New York, Washington, D.C., And Other Cities Nationwide - CNBC
- White House Ramps Up Defense Of Abrego Garcia’s Deportation - Politico
- FDA Withheld Details of Deadly 2024 E. coli Outbreak in 15 States - Newsweek
- Trump Taps Mark Levin, Henry Mcmaster To ‘Revamped’ Homeland Security Council – The Hill
- Federal Judge In Baltimore Temporarily Limits DOGE Access To Social Security Data - Politico
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Eli Lilly’s Weight Loss Pill Succeeds In First Late-Stage Trial On Diabetes Patients
Eli Lilly last Thursday said its daily obesity pill met the company’s goals in the first of several late-stage trials, helping patients with Type 2 diabetes lower their blood sugar and body weight and showing safety comparable with popular injections on the market. The trial results are among the pharmaceutical industry’s most closely watched studies of the year, as they bring Eli Lilly’s experimental pill — called orforglipron — another step closer to becoming a new, needle-free alternative in the booming weight loss and diabetes market. This more convenient, easier-to-manufacture pill could give Eli Lilly a major edge over Novo Nordisk.
The pill’s weight loss data, along with rates of side effects and treatment discontinuations, were in line with what some Wall Street analysts were expecting. But orforglipron fell short of some analysts’ estimates for a key diabetes metric. The highest dose of the pill helped patients lose 7.9% of their weight, or around 16 pounds, on average after 40 weeks. Eli Lilly also said patients saw no plateau in their weight loss by the time the study ended, suggesting they could lose more beyond that period.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- Trump And Xi Are Locked In A Standoff Over Direct Trade Negotiations - Politico
- Trump Administration Announces Fees On Chinese Ships Docking At U.S. Ports - CNBC
- Why World Leaders Are Pulling Their Punches in the Trade War – Yahoo Finance
- Trump Promises A Trade Deal With Europe – Politico
- Map Shows States Worst Impacted by Trump's Tariffs - Newsweek
- America Is Turning Away China’s Goods. Where Will They Go Instead? – The Economist
- Tariff Talks Weigh On New York International Auto Show – USA Today
- Temu And Shein Will Raise Prices For US Customers Due To Trump’s Tariffs - AP
- Trade War Turns Nissan’s Liability — Underutilized U.S. Factories — Into Asset – Automotive News
- First Shockwaves of Trump’s Tariffs Are About to Hit the World Economy – Bloomberg
Alcoa CEO: Tariffs Not Spurring Plans to Restart Idled Plants
Executives of Alcoa Corp. estimate that newly instituted or ramped-up tariffs on aluminum products will cost the company a net $100 million this year, with higher prices for American-made aluminum being more than offset by about $400 million worth of Section 232 tariffs on metal Alcoa produces in Canada and ships to U.S. customers. CEO Bill Oplinger and CFO Molly Beerman outlined those factors and others April 16 after Alcoa reported first-quarter earnings of $548 million on sales of nearly $3.4 billion. Those numbers included about $20 million of Canadian tariff costs incurred from March 12 through the end of last month.
Taking into account those market signals and the general state of play, Oplinger reiterated a point he made nearly two months ago when asked about Alcoa possibly bringing back online idled parts of its Warrick plant in southern Indiana. “It’s hard to make a restart decision based on a tariff that can change,” Oplinger told analysts on a conference call. “We just don’t know whether they will stick. And we wouldn’t necessarily make a decision to restart capacity simply based on tariffs just because they can change.” Instead of restarting idled capacity, Oplinger said “the most efficient aluminum supply chain” is shipping product from Canada. About 70% of the 4.2 million metric tons of primary aluminum U.S. companies imported last year came from north of the border, he said, while idled smelting capacity in the United States is only 600,000 metric tons.
Private Sector Hudson Valley Job Growth Flat In March
For the 12-month period ending March 2025, the private sector job count in the Hudson Valley rose by 7,300, or 0.9 percent, to 825,100. Gains occurred in private education and health services (+4,600), leisure and hospitality (+1,800), professional and business services (+900), trade, transportation and utilities (+800), manufacturing (+600), financial activities (+500) and other services (+400). Losses were centered in mining, logging and construction (-1,400) and information (-900).
Statewide the private sector job count rose by 89,000, or 1.1 percent, to 8,381,800. Nearly all the gains were in private education and health services (+77,600). Manufacturing fell 1.5% statewide, losing 6,100 jobs. Total employment in the sector now stands at 409,700.
Government employment increased overall statewide by 25,100, or 1.7%, in the 12-month period ending March 31. The number of state and local jobs increased by 12,500 (4.8%) and 13,900 ( 1.3%) respectively while the number of federal jobs fell by 1,300 (1.1%)
See the March Labor Profile
IBM X-Force Report Finds Shift From Ransomware To Credential Theft In 2024
A new report out last week from IBM Corp. shows that cybercriminals are evolving their tactics, increasingly opting for stealth over spectacle. The finding comes from the annual 2025 X-Force Threat Intelligence Index, based on data from IBM X-Force incident response cases, dark web monitoring, threat intelligence sources and partner collaborations. The report reveals that identity attacks surged in 2024, with credential theft emerging as a favored strategy, while surprisingly ransomware attacks were found to have declined overall.
Among the findings in the report, IBM’s researchers observed an 84% year-over-year increase in phishing emails delivering infostealers, signaling a broader shift toward credential theft. Infostealers are a type of malware that secretly collects and exfiltrates sensitive information such as usernames, passwords, browser data and credentials from infected devices. Nearly one in three incidents in 2024 involved stolen credentials, allowing attackers to gain access quickly and make money from data while avoiding detection. The report points to artificial intelligence-generated phishing and adversary-in-the-middle kits as being key driving forces behind the trend.
Hudson River Bridge Traffic And Revenue Up In 2024
Traffic crossing the Bear Mountain Bridge that connects Rockland and Orange counties to Putnam and Westchester increased dramatically in 2024. The New York State Bridge Authority, which operates the bridge along with four others over the Hudson River in the Hudson Valley announced it achieved its highest-ever annual traffic volume and revenue in 2024, marking a historic milestone in its 92 years of operating bridges.
The traffic figures exceed pre-pandemic levels and underscore the essential role the authority’s infrastructure plays in regional mobility and economic vitality, officials said. Last year, more than 64.4 million vehicles crossed the five vehicular bridges—an increase of 651,718 crossings compared to the previous record year, 2019, when over 63.8 million vehicle crossings were recorded. The year gone by also witnessed the highest revenue in the authority’s history as tolls generated over $82 million in revenue, an 8.3 percent increase from the previous record of over $76 million in 2023.
Toyota Weighs Adding US Production Of New RAV4 In Response To Tariffs, Sources Say
Toyota is considering producing the next version of its top-selling RAV4 SUV in the United States, three people familiar with the matter said, becoming the latest automaker to rethink supply chains to lessen the hit from U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles. Toyota makes the current version of the popular SUV in Kentucky, Canada and Japan. It originally planned to export the new RAV4 to the United States from Canada and Japan but it is now also considering production in Kentucky as one option, given that demand for the car looks likely to outstrip supply, according to the people, all of whom declined to be identified because the information is not public.
Adding supply from the United States would also lessen the impact for the Japanese automaker from President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on imported cars and avoid potentially higher costs in cases of fluctuations in the volatile yen currency, two of the people said. Toyota has yet to finalise its production plans, the people said. Any production changes cannot be implemented quickly and require long-term planning, one of them said, due to the time-consuming and capital-intensive work involved in retooling manufacturing facilities and adjusting supply chains.
Q1 Bank Earnings Solid In Face of Tariff Uncertainty
billion. - CNBC
“Give a Damn” - Boeing Sets New Values After ‘Brutal’ Employee Feedback
Boeing employees don’t trust senior leadership and don’t feel their contributions are recognized or valued, according to the results of an internal survey that CEO Kelly Ortberg shared at staff meetings this week. The company is seeing improvement in its production process, Ortberg said, something that it has been striving for since a safety incident in January 2024 when a panel blew off a 737 MAX 9 plane midflight. But it still has work to do on its goal of changing company culture. Only 27% of survey participants said they would highly recommend Boeing as a place to work.
Ortberg shared five new values the company plans to adopt: Safety and quality, people focus, trust, ownership and innovation. Each of those values has associated behaviors, according to the copy of the meeting presentation shared with The Seattle Times. To uphold the value of safety and quality, Boeing must “respect the consequences of our work,” the presentation said. For the value of “people focus,” Boeing’s workforce must “ask for help and give it freely.” For innovation, Boeing must “do cool things” and for trust, it must “do the right thing.” When it comes to ownership, Boeing must be accountable and decisive, pursue excellence and “give a damn!”
SpaceX Is Frontrunner To Build ‘Golden Dome’ Missile Shield
Elon Musk’s SpaceX and two partners have emerged as frontrunners to win a crucial part of President Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense shield, six people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Musk’s rocket and satellite company is partnering with software maker Palantir and drone builder Anduril on a bid to build key parts of Golden Dome, the sources said, which has drawn significant interest from the technology sector’s burgeoning base of defense startups. I
The three companies met with top officials in the Trump administration and the Pentagon in recent weeks to pitch their plan, which would build and launch 400 to more than 1,000 satellites circling the globe to sense missiles and track their movement, sources said. A separate fleet of 200 attack satellites armed with missiles or lasers would then bring enemy missiles down, three of the sources said. The SpaceX group is not expected to be involved in the weaponization of satellites, these sources said.
How Quantum Could Supercharge AI
Inside a secretive set of buildings in Santa Barbara, California, scientists at Alphabet attempting to develop the world’s most advanced quantum computers. “In the future, quantum and AI, they could really complement each other back and forth,” said Julian Kelly, director of hardware at Google Quantum AI. Late last year, Google unveiled a breakthrough quantum computing chip called Willow, which it says can solve a benchmark problem unimaginably faster than what’s possible with a classical computer, and demonstrated that adding more quantum bits to the chip reduced errors exponentially.
Willow may now give Google a chance to take the lead in the next technological era. It also could be a way to turn research into a commercial opportunity, especially as AI hits a data wall. Leading AI models are running out of high-quality data to train on after already scraping much of the data on the internet. “One of the potential applications that you can think of for a quantum computer is generating new and novel data,” said Kelly. He uses the example of AlphaFold, an AI model developed by Google DeepMind that helps scientists study protein structures. ″[AlphaFold] trains on data that’s informed by quantum mechanics, but that’s actually not that common,” said Kelly. “So a thing that a quantum computer could do is generate data that AI could then be trained on in order to give it a little more information about how quantum mechanics works.”