Member Briefing April 8, 2025
Trump Threatens More Tariffs On China And A Fake Social Media Post: Another Wild Day On Wall Street
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed lower on Monday, ending a roller-coaster trading session as mixed signals about President Donald Trump's tariffs triggered major reversals, from losses to gains to losses again. The Dow posted its largest intraday point swing ever -- falling more than 1,700 points during its Monday session low, then swinging up 2,595 points from the low.
Markets dropped sharply at the open of trading. Within minutes, markets recovered those losses and moved higher in response to a social media post from Trump indicating a willingness to negotiate tariffs. Ultimately, the market continued to move lower on Monday. That selloff extended losses that stretch back to Trump's announcement of far-reaching tariffs last week. The Dow suffered its worst week since 2020, and the Nasdaq ended last week in a bear market. The brief upsurge for markets in response to potential tariff negotiations, however, indicated eagerness among investors for a thaw in global trade tensions, Ivan Feinseth, a market analyst at Tigress Financial said.
Manufacturing Extension Partnerships Face Uncertain Future as Trump Pulls Funding
President Donald Trump’s administration will not renew contracts offering federal support for 10 Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) programs, pulling millions of dollars in funding that small- and mid-sized manufacturers had used to support their operations. And, the April 1 decision is likely the first step in cutting funding to the entire national MEP network as the 10 states cut had contracts that expired at the end of March. MEP contracts in the remaining states expire in July 2025, October 2025, January 2026 and March 2026.
“The Department of Commerce is evaluating how it can best use the resources provided by Congress to most effectively advance U.S. manufacturing capabilities in alignment with statute and the President’s priorities for U.S. leadership in critical and emerging technologies,” a NIST spokesman said. The federal government provides up to half of the funding that MEPs spend, with the rest coming from states and local governments and sponsors (non-profits and often large manufacturing corporations). Companies that use MEP services also pay a portion of the costs. Congressional Democrats blasted the decision to defund MEPs, saying the president doesn’t have the authority to rescind funding that Congress had already appropriated.
Surging Costs Complicate Plans for New U.S. Factories
Trump’s tariff announcement threw a wrench into factory builders’ plans—and complicates a yearslong government effort to reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing. Companies are double-checking the numbers on planned factories or halting them altogether. Tariff-swollen building costs helped to kill a $300 million plastics recycling plant in Erie, Pa., that had been in the works for four years. International Recycling Group, helmed by CEO Mitch Hecht, said Thursday it was canceling the factory partly because new duties on material and imported machinery had created “expectations of substantially higher project development costs than anticipated.”
The past three years have seen an explosion of U.S. factory investment, driven in part by billions of dollars in Biden administration subsidies for manufacturers supporting the semiconductor and electric-vehicle industries as well as renewable-energy projects. Companies have also sought to shorten supply chains that became strained during the Covid-19 pandemic. The momentum has persisted under Trump. The value of manufacturing-related construction, which hit a record $233 billion last year, continued to rise in the first two months of 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The administration envisions tariffs motivating companies to source more domestically produced goods, supporting an expanded U.S. manufacturing sector. But higher costs for imported materials and components could push up prices at home, industry professionals said.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Syria Welcomes UN Resolution To Investigate Assad Era Human-Rights Violations – Reuters
- Israeli Forces Seen Building Positions In Gaza As They Take More Ground - Reuters
- 'Hamas must have no role' in ruling Gaza, says Macron – France 24
- Satellite Image Shows US Aircraft Carrier Nearing Iran - Newsweek
- Netanyahu Is Set To Meet Trump To Discuss Israeli Hostages In Gaza And U.S. Tariffs - NPR
- Netanyahu Vows 'Strong Response' To Hamas Rockets As Israeli Strikes On Gaza Kill Dozens – France 24
- How Dangerous are Growing Tensions Between Israel and Egypt? - Newsweek
- Israeli Strike On Media Tent Outside Gaza Hospital Kills And Wounds Journalists - AP
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Scrambles to Shield Economy as Oil Prices Crater – Oil Price
- Moscow Says Airstrike Targeted Military Meeting; Ukraine Says 9 Kids Were Killed - Politico
- A Canadian Dreamed Of Being A Fighter Pilot. Now He Dogfights With Russian Drones - Forbes
- Estonian Town Of Narva Prepares For Potential Russian Invasion – France 24
- Vladimir Putin Congratulates Alex Ovechkin On Goal-Scoring Record - ESPN
- Ukraine's Kryvyi Rih Mourns Victims Of Russian Missile Strike - Reuters
- Europe’s New War With Russia: Deep Sea Sabotage - Politico
- US Army Sergeant Jailed in Russia Gets Sentence Reduced - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- French Far Right Floats Toppling Government In Wake Of Le Pen Verdict – Politico
- World’s Newest Country Teeters on Edge of Civil War - WSJ
- Argentina's Zombie Mortgage Market Is Coming Back To Life - Reuters
- The Embezzlement Scheme That Led to Le Pen’s Elections Ban - BBC
- Trump’s Tariffs Add Urgency To Germany’s Coalition Talks, Says Merz - Politico
- New Zealand Aims To Nearly Double Defence Spending To 2% Of GDP - Reuters
- What Is VAT? The Tax Trump Hates and the Rest of the World Won’t Give Up - WSJ
- Thousands Rally In Support Of South Korea's Disgraced Ex-President Yoon – France 24
- Cities Prepare For ‘Quite Epic’ World Cup Next Year – Route 50
Policy and Politics
House GOP Leaders Vow To Push Forward With Budget Vote
House Republican leaders told their members Sunday they still plan on muscling a reworked Senate budget blueprint through the House this week, according to multiple people briefed on the plans, even as fiscal hawks say there is enough opposition to tank the measure should it come to a vote. Several House Republicans have vowed in recent days to oppose the Senate framework, including Rep. Chip Roy of Texas — a leader of the hard-right bloc — and some other members of the House Freedom Caucus. With a 220-213 majority, Speaker Mike Johnson can lose only three Republicans on a party-line vote if all members are present and voting.
POLITICO first reported that Johnson planned to force the reworked Senate budget resolution through without changes. With their eye on a vote as soon as Wednesday, he and other GOP leaders know they will need Trump’s help in pushing it through. But, according to the three people, leaders want to get the number of holdouts down before they ask for more reinforcement from Trump and White House officials. GOP hard-liners, meanwhile, are digging in against the plan, with the public whip count of Republican “nos” growing at what aides consider an alarming rate. Besides Roy, Reps. Andy Harris of Maryland, Andy Ogles of Tennessee and Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania have expressed outright opposition.
New York Lawmakers Pass Another State Budget Extender Nearly A Week Past Deadline
Another state budget extender was passed Monday by the New York state Legislature and signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul to keep the government running through Wednesday and ensure state employees are paid on time. New York lawmakers returned to the state Capitol in Albany on Monday as state budget negotiations continue, now nearly a week past the deadline. The state budget was due April 1.
Criminal justice issues are among the latest sticking points between Gov. Kathy Hochul and legislative leaders. That includes proposed changes to the state's 2020 discovery laws and a ban on the wearing of face masks in public with an intent to harass, the latter of which has become entangled with concerns over the Trump administration’s immigration policies. Other policy items Hochul is pushing for include changes to involuntary commitment and statewide standards for a cellphone ban in schools.
Read more at NY State of Politics
House Republican Will Introduce Bill Challenging Trump’s Tariffs—As Speaker Johnson Reportedly Urges Tariff Support
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., is planning to introduce legislation Monday that would restrict President Donald Trump's tariffs, as GOP opposition grows against the president's signature economic policy—though House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is reportedly so far telling lawmakers to back the president. House Republicans should “hold the line” on Trump’s tariffs and not oppose them, Johnson told his colleagues on a call Sunday, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, saying they should trust that Trump and his instincts will ultimately improve the economy, and just give the tariffs “time” to play out.
Seven Republican senators have so far signed on as co-sponsors of a Senate bill that would require the White House to get congressional approval to impose tariffs, with Bacon telling CBS News he’ll introduce a companion bill in the House on Monday. It’s so far unlikely that the legislation will actually pass Congress—let alone get a majority large enough to overrule Trump if he vetoes it—though Bacon said he thinks, “If we continue to see the stock market go a certain direction, or if we see inflation or unemployment shift in a bad way, I think then this bill becomes a very viable bill.”
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Supreme Court Lets Trump Seek Deportations Under Wartime Law – Bloomberg
- Appeals Court Halts Trump Independent Agency Firings, Spurring Supreme Court Battle – The Hill
- Just 2 Months On The Job, Zeldin Reshapes The EPA; Climate Activists Accuse Him Of An 'Assault' On Public Health – NY State Of Politics
- Trump, Unbowed, Is Enacting Change on Scale Rarely Seen Before - WSJ
- Trump Asks US Supreme Court To Pause Order To Return Man Deported To El Salvador In Error - Reuters
- New Musk White House Feud? Peter Navarro Claims ‘No Rift’ After Billionaire Attacks Him Over Tariffs - Forbes
- Hundreds Of Law Firms, Former Judges Sign Onto Briefs In Support Of Perkins Coie – The Hill
- Senate Confirms Dr. Oz As CMS Administrator On A Party-Line Vote – Benefits Pro
- Elon Musk Knocks Trump’s Trade Philosophy - WSJ
- RFK Jr. Consoles Texas Family: MMR Vaccine ‘Most Effective’ Way To Stop Measles Spread – The Hill
- The Trump Tracker, Stay Up To Date on the First 100 Days – WSJ
Health and Wellness
The (Artificial Intelligence) Therapist Can See You Now
New research suggests that given the right kind of training, AI bots can deliver mental health therapy with as much efficacy as — or more than — human clinicians. The recent study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, shows results from the first randomized clinical trial for AI therapy. Researchers from Dartmouth College built the bot as a way of taking a new approach to a longstanding problem: The U.S. continues to grapple with an acute shortage of mental health providers. For every 340 people in the U.S., there is just one mental health clinician, according to some estimates.
The researchers gathered a group of roughly 200 people who had diagnosable conditions like depression and anxiety, or were at risk of developing eating disorders. Half of them worked with AI therapy bots. Compared to those that did not receive treatment, those who did showed significant improvement. One of the more surprising results, says Jacobson, was the quality of the bond people formed with their bots. "People were really developing this strong relationship with an ability to trust it," says Jacobson, "and feel like they can work together on, on their mental health symptoms." Strength of bonds and trust with therapists is one of the overall predictors of efficacy in talk and cognitive behavioral therapy.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- Trump Threatens New 50% Tariffs On China If Beijing Doesn’t Remove Retaliatory Duties – CNBC
- Jamie Dimon Warns Tariffs Will Raise Prices, Slow Growth – WSJ
- EU Split On Targeting US Tech Over Trump Tariffs – France 24
- EU Offers Trump Removal Of All Industrial Tariffs - Politico
- Stellantis Offers To Help Suppliers Pay Tariff Costs – Automotive News
- Musk Calls For United States And European Union To Move To Zero-Tariff System - Forbes
- Goldman Sachs Now Sees A 45% Chance Of A Recession And The Fed Coming To The Rescue – Yahoo Finance
- ‘This Is The Trump Recession,’ CEOs Say, With Tariff Price Increases, Job Losses Coming - CNBC Survey
- The First Victim of Trump’s Trade War: Michigan’s Economy - WSJ
- Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong Stocks Sink 9% Amid Trump's Tariff War – Nikkei Asia
- Apple Plans to Source More iPhones From India as Potential Tariff Fix - WSJ
- Will Trump Negotiate Tariffs? White House Claims Over 50 Countries Want To Talk - Forbes
- Here’s the iPhone. Here’s the iPhone With Tariffs. – WSJ
Tariffs: Howmet Declares Force Majeure; Nintendo, Jaguar Impact
Howmet Aerospace declared a force majeure event, Reuters reported late Friday, in a letter sent to customers. Force majeure is a legal practice allows enabling contracted parties to avoid obligations due to unavoidable or unpredictable external circumstances. "Howmet will be excused from supplying any products or services that are impacted by this declared national emergency and/or the tariff executive order," the company wrote in its letter. Howmet is the first reported instance of a U.S.-based company declaring force majeure due to Trump's tariffs. Boeing and Airbus also issued plans to cancel contracts,
Elsewhere, India-based Tata Motors, the parent of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) announced on Saturday it has paused exports to the U.S. in response to tariffs, Reuters reported. "As we work to address the new trading terms with our business partners, we are taking some short-term actions, including a shipment pause in April, as we develop our mid- to longer-term plans," JLR wrote in an emailed statement. GameStop on Friday confirmed that Nintendo has delayed U.S. preorders for its upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 console. Nintendo said that preorders for the U.S. will not start on April 9 "in order to access the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions," according to the GameStop statement. Japan-based Nintendo plans to update the timing for the U.S. preorders at a later date. The official June 5 launch date for the console remains unchanged.
Defense Industrial Base Sector Won’t Surge Without Policy Changes
A gaping hole for the Defense Department is that the United States does not currently have the capacity, workforce, capital investments or fortified critical infrastructure to procure, manufacture and store the critical minerals and materials the nation needs militarily and domestically. The Defense Department is just one customer in the United States. There are organic customers, private and commercial partners that have demands that are not being met as well. There are not enough materials to go around.
In 30 years, the Pentagon went from having a defense industry it considered too large to sustain to one now too small to surge. The National Defense Industrial Strategy Implementation Plan, published in October 2024 under the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, with the bulk of the work carried out by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, has six implementation initiatives. The overarching theme is that the six initiatives are mainly policy buckets and can be put into five problem sets that the department must overcome if it wants to be successful in the next few years with the defense industry. But there are risks associated with each of the six initiatives.
Trump Orders Fresh Review Of Nippon Steel's Bid For US Steel – Statement
President Donald Trump on Monday directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review the acquisition of U.S. Steel by the buyers "to assist me in determining whether further action in this matter may be appropriate." Last month, the Trump administration filed a motion to extend two deadlines in U.S. Steel, and Nippon Steel's lawsuit against a U.S. national security panel to give the government more time to wrap up merger talks with the firms.
The news gave hope to investors that the Trump administration was considering greenlighting Nippon Steel's bid for U.S. Steel after former President Joe Biden blocked it in January on national security grounds. Shares of US Steel rose nearly 7% after the statement was released. US Steel and Nippon Steel did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Report: Intel, TSMC plan US manufacturing JV
The Intel-TSMC joint ventures is back on the cards again, according to a report in The Information. The report says that the two companies have reached a TSMC-HQ-150x150.jpgpreliminary agreement to form a jv that would run Intel’s fabs. The White House and the US Department of Commerce are said to be encouraging both sides to get an agreement. Intel and other American semiconductor companies – said to include Broadcom, AMD and Nvidia – would hold the majority of the stock in the joint venture which would include all or some of Intel’s fabs.
It is reported that TSMC will acquire a 20% stake in the jv in return for sharing its manufacturing technology with Intel and training Intel staff, but TSMC will not be required to put up any capital for the stake. It is also reported that some Intel executives feel that the deal might result in Intel adopting TSMC’s process technology and dropping Intel’s own technology.
Apple, Michigan State University To Jointly Open Manufacturing Academy
Apple and Michigan State University will open the Apple Manufacturing Academy to help small and medium-sized businesses improve their operations, the school announced Thursday. This is the second time Apple and MSU have collaborated on a program. In 2021, the two parties opened the Apple Developer Academy, which teaches coding, design and business with Apple’s tools to help participants create their own path in or with the tech industry.
The academy is part of Apple’s U.S. advanced manufacturing fund, which it pledged in February to double to a $10 billion investment. The fund, created in 2017, aims to support advanced manufacturing and skills development nationwide. Apple engineers and experts from MSU will also consult businesses on how to implement artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing techniques. The program is set to open this summer. As of Feb. 24, the fund has supported projects in 13 states that helped build local businesses and train workers, as well as create new manufacturing processes and materials for Apple products.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Oil, Nat Gas, Gasoline Prices Continue to Fall
Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with West Texas Intermediate crude momentarily falling below $60 per barrel. President Trump's recent tariff announcements have sparked fears of a global recession and reduced trade activity, negatively impacting oil demand. Analysts warn that escalating trade disputes could lead to industrial slowdowns and further depress oil consumption, potentially pushing prices even lower.
Meanwhile U.S. gasoline futures slid 1.37% Monday, adding to a 13.3% decline since Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, with prices reflecting the broader oil market rout. Trump hailed the drop in gasoline prices as a consumer win, claiming it would tame inflation. However, experts counter that his tariffs—disrupting global trade and raising costs for goods—could stoke inflation instead, offsetting any short-term relief at the pump.
Natural gas prices are dropping in lockstep with oil, falling 1.72% on Monday to $3.77 per million British thermal units. The decline mirrors the broader energy market slump, with WTI at $60 and Brent at $64, driven by Trump’s tariff rollout and recession fears. The synchronized downturn reflects weakened demand expectations and heightened volatility across commodities, as global economic uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on energy markets.
CI to Host Online Tariff Impact Discussion for Manufacturing Member Execs
With the recent announcement of sweeping tariffs by the Trump Administration — including a 10% tariff on nearly all imported goods and targeted increases for key trading partners — uncertainty is again rippling through the manufacturing sector. Recognizing that one of the greatest values the Council of Industry brings to its members is the collective experience and wisdom of its members, we will host an Executive Roundtable on Friday, April 11th, 8:00 – 9:30 AM, for manufacturing member executives to share perspectives on:
- How developments are affecting your business today
- What you are forecasting for the months ahead
- What strategies you are considering in response
We’ll also provide a brief update on what we’re hearing at the national and regional levels, however, this session is primarily to hear from our members.
Please note this discussion is open to manufacturing employers only.
For more information or to register please email info@councilofindustry.org