Member Briefing December 30, 2024
Two-Year U.S. Manufacturing Slump Shows Little Sign Of Ending As Durable Goods Orders Fall
New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods slumped by much more than expected in the month of November, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday. The report on durable goods was moved up from Tuesday, as originally scheduled, because of an executive order by President Biden late last week closing the federal government on Dec. 24. The report said durable goods orders tumbled by 1.1 percent in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in October. The bigger than expected decrease by durable goods orders came amid a sharp pullback by orders for transportation equipment, which plunged by 2.9 percent in November after jumping by 1.8 percent in October.
Excluding the steep drop by orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.1 percent in November after inching up by 0.2 percent in October. Ex-transportation orders were expected to rise by 0.3 percent. Decreases by orders for fabricated metal products and computers and electronic products offset increases by orders for machinery, primary metals and electrical equipment, appliances and components.
U.S. Consumer Confidence Pulled Back in December
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 8.1 points in December to 104.7 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.2 points to 140.2. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—tumbled 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. "The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past two years," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
52.9% expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead, down from a record high of 57.2% in November.
The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months ticked up to 48.5% but remained near recent lows.
Average 12-month inflation expectations stabilized at 5.0% in December, the lowest since March 2020.
37.0% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," up from 33.6% in November.
Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months remained near the series low.
U.S. Business Equipment Borrowings Up More Than 8% Year on Year In November, ELFA Says
U.S. companies borrowed 8.7% more to finance equipment investments in November compared with the same period a year earlier, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association said on Friday. New loans, leases and lines of credit signed by companies in November rose to $10.36 billion, from $9.53 billion in the year-ago period. The Washington-based trade association, which reports economic activity for the more than $1 trillion equipment finance sector, also said that credit approvals for U.S. companies were at 74% in November this year.
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, ELFA's non-profit affiliate, said its confidence index for December reached a fresh three-year high, indicating that executives expect continued strength in lending volumes and further improvements in financial conditions. The ELFA CapEx Finance Index of leasing and finance activity is based on a 25-member survey which includes Bank of America as well as the financing units of Caterpillar, Dell Technologies, Siemens AG, Canon and Volvo AB.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israeli Forces Order New Evacuation At Besieged Northern Gaza Town – Reuters
- Israel Launches Strikes Against Houthi Rebels in Yemen's Capital - Newsweek
- Israel Arrests Hospital Director And Other Staff In Raid On Last Functioning Facility In Northern Gaza, Health Officials Say - CNN
- Kurdish rebel leader reportedly suggests he’s open to ending insurgency - Politico
- Houthis Vow To Continue Attacking Israel Despite Strikes On Yemen - BBC
- Iran Detains Italian Reporter Cecilia Sala, Italy Says - Bloomberg
- Syria's De Facto Leader Says Holding Elections Could Take Up To Four Years - Reuters
- 'I Can't Put My Life On Hold' - Israel's War-Weary Reservists Look For An End To Fighting - BBC
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Says It Thwarted Ukrainian Plot To Kill Officer And A Blogger – Reuters
- Will Russia Release Thousands Of Ukrainians For New Year? - BBC
- Russia Will Abandon Its Unilateral Missile Moratorium, Lavrov Says - Reuters
- Putin Apologizes but Does Not Take Responsibility for Azerbaijani Plane Crash - NBC
- Russia's 'Outrageous' Christmas Day Attack on Ukraine Triggers US Response - Newsweek
- Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Could Cause ‘Substantial’ Casualties, Senior NATO Official Says - Politico
- Russian Cargo Ship Sinks In Mediterranean After Explosion, Russian Foreign Ministry Says - Reuters
- North Korean Soldier Captured In Ukraine Dies, Reports Say - BBC
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- At Least 177 Dead In South Korea’s Worst Plane Crash In Years - Reuters
- Missiles Are Now the Biggest Killer of Airline Passengers - WSJ
- Showdown In Georgia As Pro-EU President Refuses To Step Down - Politico
- Infographic: How Chinese And Russians Intrude Into Japan's Territory – Nikkei Asia
- UK Economy Stagnates As Business Leaders Warn Of 'Worst Of All Worlds' - EuroNews
- China’s C919 Jet Faces Crunch Test As Its Network Rapidly Expands - SCMP
- South Korea Votes To Impeach Acting President Han Duck-soo - BBC
- Musk calls AfD ‘last spark of hope’ for Germany in op-ed in Welt - Politico
- Haitians Flee Gangs on a Mountain Trail ‘Where Even the Dogs Don’t Go’ - WSJ
- A Year Of Mass Attacks Reveals Anger And Frustration In China– BBC
Policy and Politics
Corporate Transparency Act Update: Filing Requirements Reinstated Put on Hold
A Fifth Circuit panel reinstated a nationwide injunction blocking enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act, three days after a different panel lifted it, causing turmoil in compliance offices. The CTA, enacted as an anti-money laundering measure, requires that US entities that existed before 2024 disclose the identities of their beneficial owners—individuals who own or control the business—by Jan. 1, 2025. With the injunction back in place as of Thursday, however, the government can no longer require businesses to file their beneficial ownership information reports to Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.
Back-and-forth changes to CTA enforcement over the holidays have caused whiplash for businesses weighing whether to proceed with their disclosures voluntarily. In between the Fifth Circuit rulings, the Treasury agency announced it was pushing back the reporting deadline to Jan. 13—meaning that the deadline has changed three times this week. Before the injunction, approximately 32.6 million existing US businesses would have needed to file reports in total by 2025, according to FinCEN estimates. FinCEN said Friday that businesses could still file voluntarily if they chose.
Hochul Signs $75B Climate Superfund Bill Targeting Oil Companies
Oil and gas companies could be on the hook for billions of dollars to compensate for environmental pollution after Gov. Kathy Hochul on Thursday signed the Climate Change Superfund Act. Democratic lawmakers and environmental advocates have asserted that fossil fuel producers have historically knowingly downplayed the effects of the production of fossil fuels on the environment and have been responsible for the emission of greenhouse gasses that have contributed to global warming and other negative effects on the climate. The solution is to compel those companies to pay into a $75 billion superfund that would be used to pay for climate resiliency projects around New York. Business groups had opposed the legislation noting that the regulations would likely drive up costs for households and businesses.
Under the legislation, the state Department of Environmental Conservation will be tasked with implementing the program, including identifying the companies with the highest emissions, and creating a notification and collection system for the payments. They will also have to identify the “climate change adaptive infrastructure projects” that the superfund will pay for. The law will also empower the state attorney general’s office and the Department of Taxation and Finance to enforce the terms of the program, though the exact payment process, potential amounts of penalities and which companies will be affected are still unclear.
Read more at Albany Times Union
From Education and Immigration to Health Care and Affordability - Here’s What’s On The Agenda For The 2025 State Legislative Session
Lawmakers will have no shortage of issues awaiting them when they return to Albany January 8th. The big unknown will of course be President-elect Donald Trump, as some lawmakers and officials fear that new federal policies may harm the state or necessitate some form of state response to protect New Yorkers. Gov. Kathy Hochul indicated after the election that while she will defend New Yorkers from the Trump administration if needed, she is also willing to work collaboratively with the incoming president.Hochul has made it clear that she wants to make tackling the affordability crisis her top issue in 2025 as Democrats grapple with the outcome of the presidential election, where cost-of-living concerns helped drive voters to Republicans. Hochul already began to preview her agenda in December when she announced a proposal to send $300 or $500 “inflation refund” checks to low- and middle-income New Yorkers. But that plan will require legislative approval, so it’s not a done deal. It’s expected to be in the budget.
With hundreds of bills to pass and an ever-contentious budget process, they’ll have plenty of issues to address. But the results of the election will loom large as Democrats reevaluate their values and party positions after Republicans picked up ground in the vast majority of the state. Keep reading for the policies that could be driving the next legislative session.
Health and Wellness
Banish Loneliness By Creating An Engaging Work Culture
In 2023, the US Surgeon General issued an advisory flagging the significant public health challenges caused by the lack of social connection across our communities. Gallup’s 2024 State of the Global Workforce found that 20% of the world’s employees experience loneliness every day. 2024 Research by TheLi.st, Berlin Cameron and the Benenson Strategy Group found that 86% of white-collar workers under age 35 have felt lonely or isolated in the workplace during the past month. For white-collar workers over age 35, the response was 76% feeling lonely or isolated.
Not all workplaces create loneliness, isolation and disrespect. Check out the list of certified “Great Places to Work” companies. These organizations sustain work cultures that are purposeful, positive and productive — and employees love working for those companies. Senior leaders at these companies do not leave the quality of their work culture to chance. They invest time, energy and passion to set the standard that respect is as important as results — and they measure, monitor and mentor to ensure that standard is reached daily.
NYS COVID Update
The Governor updated COVID data for the week ending December 27th.
Deaths:
- Weekly: 14
- Total Reported to CDC: 84,591
Hospitalizations:
- Average Daily Patients in Hospital statewide: 613
- Patients in ICU Beds: 56
7 Day Average Cases per 100K population
- 4.6 positive cases per 100,00 population, Statewide
- 6.6 positive cases per 100,00 population, Mid-Hudson
Useful Websites:
Transition 2024
- Trump Asks Supreme Court To Pause Law That Could Ban TikTok - Reuters
- Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Cabrera Names Ambassador to Panama - Forbes
- In Shift, Trump Downgrades Soaring Rhetoric On Campaign Promises – The Hill
- Trump’s Return Sparks Hope for 2025 Deals Revival - WSJ
- Trump Defends Foreign Worker Visas, Siding With Musk Amid MAGA Backlash – CNN
- ‘I Could Never Do His Job': Former Speaker Newt Gingrich Shows Support For Mike Johnson - Politico
- Denmark To Boost Greenland's Defence After Trump Repeats Controversial Remarks Seeking US Ownership – Euro News
- Latimer Resigns As Westchester County Executive – Mid-Hudson News
- Democrats Test New Election Strategy With Embrace of Local Economics In NY 21 Special Election - WSJ
- Corporate Interests Commit Millions To Celebrate Trump’s Inauguration - CNN
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Picks – Politico
Industry News
Jimmy Carter, Former US President And Nobel Peace Prize Recipient, Dead At 100
Jimmy Carter, the earnest Georgia peanut farmer who as U.S. president struggled with a bad economy and the Iran hostage crisis but brokered peace between Israel and Egypt and later received the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian work, died at his home in Plains, Georgia, on Sunday, the Carter Center said. He was 100. He served as president from January 1977 to January 1981 after defeating incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford in the 1976 U.S. election. Carter was swept from office four years later in an electoral landslide as voters embraced Republican challenger Ronald Reagan, the former actor and California governor.
Carter lived longer after his term in office than any other U.S. president. Along the way, he earned a reputation as a better former president than he was a president - a status he readily acknowledged. Carter left office profoundly unpopular but worked energetically for decades on humanitarian causes. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002 in recognition of his "untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development." A Southern Baptist Sunday school teacher since his teens, Carter brought a strong sense of morality to the presidency, speaking openly about his religious faith. He also sought to take some pomp out of an increasingly imperial presidency - walking, rather than riding in a limousine, in his 1977 inauguration parade.
EPA and DOE Award $850 Million to Reduce Methane Pollution
On December 20, the EPA and the Department of Energy announced it was providing $850 million for 43 projects n that will help small oil and gas operators, Tribes, and other entities across the country to reduce, monitor, measure, and quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The funding is part of the plan to realize the finalization of an EPA rule that is expected to reduce methane emissions from covered oil and gas sources by 80% from 2024 to 2038.
The selected projects funded by the Inflation Reduction Act will, through innovative technologies, enhance emissions measurement and provide transparent data to affected communities. These projects build on the $350 million in grant funding to states that EPA and DOE announced in December 2023 to support industry efforts to voluntarily reduce emissions at low-producing wells, monitor emissions, and conduct environmental restoration at well pads. Together, these investments are a key step in implementing the Methane Emissions Reduction Program. Two private companies, 11 universities, and one Tribal consortium, were selected for projects to deploy and test new and existing methane mitigation technologies:
U.S. Finalizes Up To $6.75 Billion In Chips Awards For Samsung, Texas Instruments, Amkor
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday it was finalizing an award of up to $4.745 billion to South Korea's Samsung Electronics (and up to $1.61 billion for Texas Instruments to expand chip production. The department also finalized an award of up to $407 million to help fund Amkor Technology's planned $2 billion advanced semiconductor packaging facility in Arizona, which is set to be the largest of its kind in the U.S. The Samsung award is about $1.7 billion smaller than the preliminary award announced in April of up to $6.4 billion and reflects its revised smaller investment plans, the department said.
Texas Instruments has pledged to invest more than $18 billion through 2029 in two new factories in Texas and one in Utah, which are expected to create 2,000 manufacturing jobs. The company is getting $900 million for its Texas operations and $700 million. Amkor's Arizona plant when fully operational will package and test millions of chips for autonomous vehicles, 5G/6G and data centers. Apple will be its first and largest customer with the chips produced at a nearby Taiwanese chipmaker facility.
Holiday Sales Reveal a Split in Consumer Spending
It was a holiday season of the haves and the have nots. Inflation-weary consumers were projected to splurge this year on holiday gifts, food and decorations—fueled by online purchases, according to industry estimates. But the gains were increasingly driven by higher-income households, those making more than $100,000 a year. Lower-income Americans were squeezed by higher prices for groceries, child care and other monthly expenses.
Overall, consumers spent 3.8% more from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 than they did in the same period last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which excludes auto sales. The tally doesn’t include the week after Christmas, which is a key shopping period. The gains were boosted by restaurant spending, which increased 6.3% in the period compared with last year. Online retail sales rose 6.7% year-over-year, while in-store sales increased 2.9%.
China Sanctions 7 Companies Over US Military Assistance To Taiwan
The Chinese government placed sanctions on seven companies on Friday in response to recent U.S. announcements of military sales and aid to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as part of its territory. The sanctions also come in response to the recent approval of the U.S. government’s annual defense spending bill, which a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement said “includes multiple negative sections on China.”
The seven companies being sanctioned are Insitu Inc., Hudson Technologies Co., Saronic Technologies, Inc., Raytheon Canada, Raytheon Australia, Aerkomm Inc. and Oceaneering International Inc., the Foreign Ministry statement said. It said that “relevant senior executives” of the companies are also sanctioned, without naming any. Any assets they have in China will be frozen, and organizations and individuals in China are prohibited from engaging in any activity with them, it said.
Space Industrial Base Racing To Meet Growing Demand For Military Satellites
Over the next decade, the Defense Department intends to proliferate hundreds of new military satellites on orbit that will provide improved space-based capabilities for warfighters. While the effort has been lauded as an ambitious and innovative plan to revolutionize space acquisition and development for the modern era, it has also exposed critical vulnerabilities in the United States’ ability to manufacture and deliver systems at scale — an issue that both the Pentagon and industrial base are working to learn from moving forward.
Historically, the Defense Department tended to develop a few very large and exquisite satellites to conduct critical military missions. But with the growing use of space as a warfighting domain by both the United States and its adversaries, the Pentagon is now focusing on different ways to build resilience in its space systems — such as by launching hundreds of smaller, inexpensive satellites for a single constellation. SDA plans to field systems in batches every two years, with each iteration carrying the latest technology available. Although the first operational satellites known as Tranche 1 were slated to launch in fall 2024, that deadline has since been delayed to March or April 2025 due to supply chain bottlenecks, according to SDA Director Derek Tournear.
Biggest Manufacturing Technology Wins of 2024
Every new technology starts on the hype end of the Gartner cycle. Manufacturers have to wait patiently for new hardware and software to prove out. Then, it takes time to explore and understand the technology that seems to have value. Pilot use cases can be difficult to identify and implement. Once a technology deployment succeeds, however, doors to possibility open up across the organization. Taking that first step, deploying that first technology, bears fruit far beyond its immediate benefits. That is when a digital transformation kicks into gear.
Here, then, are 4 Industry Week stories – from 5G to Digital Maintenance - from 2024 that best chronicle manufacturing technology that gets results and the leaders who blazed the digital trail.
Workplaces To Focus On Health Costs, AI Training In 2025
A new year means a fresh start, but for many employers, it's also an opportunity to tackle old problems. 2025 will likely be defined by the benefits and policy challenges leaders have struggled to make headway on in the last few years. Add in the political and economic uncertainty Trump's incoming presidency brings, and it's clear HR teams will continue to have a lot on their plates. Employers in 2025 are likely to emphasize topics like managing health care costs, artificial intelligence training and mental health support amid economic and political uncertainty. Retention should remain a priority despite a labor market shift favoring employers.
While the labor market has increasingly shifted to favor employers in the last two years, Keller warns leaders against putting retention efforts on the back burner. In other words, employee demands around benefits and policies like flexibility, AI learning and mental health support matter. Linda Keller chief operating officer, and Jeff Faber, chief strategy officer at HUB International talk about what issues will likely shape the employee benefits landscape in 2025 — and how employers can face these challenges head on.
Osamu Suzuki, Who Led Japanese Automaker Into India, Dies At 94
Osamu Suzuki, an ingenious pennypincher who led Japan's Suzuki Motor for more than four decades and played a key role in turning India into a flourishing auto market, has died aged 94. He died on Christmas Day of lymphoma, said the company, which he steered ambitiously, during his time as either chief executive or chairman, out of its primary market of minivehicles.
The inexpensive, boxy, 660-cc cars specific to Japan benefited from generous tax breaks, but demanded a stringent reining-in of costs that proved to be a key part of the automaker's DNA. In the 1970s, he saved the company from the brink of collapse by convincing Toyota Motor to supply engines that met new emissions regulations, but which Suzuki Motor had yet to develop. More success followed with the 1979 launch of the Alto minivehicle, which became a massive hit, boosting the automaker's bargaining power when it tied up with General Motors in 1981.