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Member Briefing December 31, 2024

Date postedDecember 31, 2024
Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Top Story

Global Steel Tonnage Winding Down for 2024

Raw steel production fell to 146.8 million metric tons worldwide during November 2024, down -3.61% from October and up just 0.8% from November 2023, as steelmakers work to avoid over-production against consistently weak demand. In October, World Steel forecast 2024 global steel consumption would total at 1.75 billion, which would be the third consecutive year of declining demand for the industry. That forecast revised downward the outlook issued earlier this year, citing continuing weak activity in manufacturing and industrial sectors around the world, as well as the political instability in some markets, ongoing regional conflicts. The forecast for 2025 is not entirely encouraging, predicting that global steel consumption will grow just 1.2% year-over-year in the 12 months to come.

  • The largest steelmaking nation, China, produced 78.4 million metric tons during November, a drop-off of -4.46% from October but still 2.5% higher than last November’s total. For the current year-to-date, Chinese steelmakers have produced 929.2 million metric tons, which is -2.7% less than their January-November 2023 result.
  • India’s steel industry has been an outlier from the global trend, and so although the 12.4 million metric tons produced there during November show a -0.81% decrease from October, the total is 4.5% higher than November 2023. For January-November, Indian steel output has totaled 135.9 million metric tons, 5.9% more than during the comparable period of 2023.
  • In Japan, November steel production remained unchanged from October at 6.9 million metric tons. That signals a -3.1% decrease from November 2023, and it brings YTD raw steel production to 77.1 million metric tons, -3.6% less than last year’s 11-month total.
  • The U.S. is the world’s fourth-largest producer of steel, and the 6.4 million metric tons meant a -3.1% decrease from October and a -2.8% decrease from November 2023. For January-November 2024, U.S. steelmakers have produced 72.9 million metric tons of raw steel, -2.2% less than they produced for the first eleven months of 2023.

Read more at American Machinist

U.S. Pending Home Sales Advance to Highest Level Since Early 2023

Pending sales of US homes increased for a fourth month in November to the highest level since early 2023 as homebuyers gave up hopes for lower borrowing costs. A National Association of Realtors measure of contract signings rose 2.2% to 79, the highest since February 2023. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.8% increase. The report aligns with earlier data showing homebuyers pressed ahead with purchases of existing homes in November despite higher mortgage rates. Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Pending sales were led by a 5.2% monthly increase in the South, with smaller advances in the West and Midwest. Activity declined in the Northeast. Across the US, contract signings climbed 5.6% from a year earlier before adjusting for seasonality. Housing affordability in the US remains under strain amid high prices and elevated borrowing costs. Federal Reserve officials signaled after their Dec. 17-18 policy meeting that they anticipate a slower pace of interest-rate reductions in 2025, suggesting little respite for homebuyers in the near future.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

US Trade Deficit Grows By $4.6BN In Nov.

The U.S. trade deficit in goods rose nearly 5% in November and clung near an all-time high — and there’s no reason to expect the gap to shrink much early in the new term of President-elect Donald Trump. The trade gap widened to $102.9 billion in November from $98.3 billion in the prior month, the government said Friday. Many businesses are considering whether to ratchet up orders for foreign-made goods beyond what they would normally do. The U.S. is likely to keep running high trade deficits. The American economy is stronger than the economies of most other countries, so the U.S. can afford to buy more imported goods.

In the short run, the resumption of a short-lived port strike in October could spur more orders ahead of the end of a temporary labor-management truce in January. That’s what happened in September. In the longer run, the threat of steep Trump tariffs has forced companies to examine whether to step up their orders before the new levies take effect.

Read more at MarketWatch

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Policy and Politics

World Leaders Pay Tribute to 39th President After Passing

World leaders have expressed their sorrow and admiration following the death of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who passed away at 100. Renowned for his diplomacy and humanitarian efforts, Carter's presidency featured enduring achievements, including the Camp David Accords, the normalization of U.S.-China relations, and the Panama Canal Treaties. Carter passed away on Sunday at his home at the age of 100, surrounded by family while receiving hospice care. He is survived by his sons John William, James Earl, and Donnel Jeffrey; his daughter Amy; 11 grandchildren; and 14 great-grandchildren. His wife, Rosalynn Carter, predeceased him in November 2023 at the age of 96.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi praised Carter's "deep belief in peace and justice," while Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino remembered him as pivotal to Panama's sovereignty. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Carter a "champion of human rights," commending his post-presidency dedication to democracy and global health, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lauded his lifelong service to peace, while Israeli President Isaac Herzog highlighted Carter's role in fostering Middle East stability.

Read More at Newsweek

New York State Laws Going Into Effect for New York in 2025

A flurry of legislating has resulted in Gov. Kathy Hochul’s signing close to 700 bills into law that affect paid sick leave, the cost of insulin and even restaurant reservations, among other things. Here’s a look at some of the laws that are set to change New Yorkers’ lives in 2025.

  • Tucked into the budget this year was a provision expanding the state’s paid sick leave law: Starting Jan. 1, employers must offer at least 20 hours of paid time off for pregnant employees to attend related medical appointments such as sonograms.
  • Also taking effect on Jan. 1 is a measure that eliminates co-pays for insulin covered by health insurance plans, which are state-regulated. This builds on a federal policy that capped the cost of insulin for Medicare beneficiaries at $35 a month. About half of all states regulate the cost of insulin, but New York is the first to eliminate co-pays.
  • With the New Year comes resolutions. Maybe that means signing up for a gym membership or restarting a monthly relationship with the nearby yoga studio. When reality hits, an amended law will make canceling simpler and more transparent. Now, when you notify a health club you want to go back to loafing, it must process the cancellation and any refunds within 10 business days.

Read more at The NYT

Senator Cotton Wants Next Congress To Consider Defense Spending Boost

U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., wants Congress to consider billions of dollars in investments toward munitions and defense systems as part of the legislative body's first major spending measure in the new year. Cotton's comments concerning defense funding came on the heels of President Joe Biden's approval of this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which authorized $895.2 billion for strategic weapons, deterrence initiatives in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, new weapons technologies and a 4.5% pay raise for military members.

Cotton, of Little Rock, serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee which has a hand in drafting the legislation. The Senate and House of Representatives consider new versions of this measure annually as part of the chambers' yearly responsibilities.

Read more at NW Arkansas Democrat & Gazette

Health and Wellness

Norovirus Outbreaks Surging Across The US: CDC Data

Norovirus cases are surging across the country this winter, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data. There were 91 outbreaks reported by state health departments during the week of Dec. 5, up from 69 in the last week of November, according to the CDC. Norovirus is extremely contagious and can cause diarrhea, vomiting, nausea and stomach pain within 12 hours to 47 hours after being exposed, the agency said. Most people with norovirus get better within one to three days, but they can still spread the virus for a few days after.

Norovirus is the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States. Each year, there are about 2,500 reported outbreaks. They can occur throughout the year but are most common between November and April, the CDC said. A person gets infected by getting tiny particles of feces or vomit in their mouth from a person infected with norovirus. The virus spreads through contaminated water, food and surfaces; it only takes a few norovirus particles to make people sick, the CDC said.

Read more at The Hill


Transition 2024

Industry News

Help Wanted: U.S. Factories Seek Workers for the Nearshoring Boom

Many U.S. manufacturers o say they are struggling to find skilled workers to put a Made in America label on their goods. U.S. factories employ about 13 million people. Plant owners are struggling to fill positions even as other sectors of the economy, such as transportation and warehousing, have recovered from pandemic-era labor shortages. U.S. factories employ about 13 million people. Plant owners are struggling to fill positions even as other sectors of the economy, such as transportation and warehousing, have recovered from pandemic-era labor shortages.

For most of this year, the gap each month between manufacturing job openings and hirings has hovered at about 100,000 positions. More than 60% of employers in a recent survey by the National Association of Manufacturers said attracting and retaining talent is a top concern. The trade group forecasts the sector will need to fill 3.8 million roles over the next decade because of retirees leaving the industry and growing manufacturing demand. Manufacturers are scrambling to fill positions as more companies are rethinking their supply chains and moving production out of Asia. A KPMG survey earlier this year found 73% of U.S.-based executives said their companies have brought or are bringing back more of their supply chains to the Americas because of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. 

Read more at The WSJ

NYSE and Nasdaq to close for National Day of Mourning for Jimmy Carter

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will shut down on January 9 to honor the life and legacy of former President Jimmy Carter, who passed away at age 100. This closure, in line with the tradition following the death of US presidents, coincides with Carter's state funeral in Washington, D.C. The markets' closure follows the earlier example set in 2018 for George H. W. Bush's passing. Both exchanges paid tribute with a moment of silence on Monday, and fixed-income markets will close early on January 9.

"Jimmy Carter, with humble roots as a farmer and family man, devoted his life to public service and defending our freedom," said Lynn Martin, President of NYSE Group. "During his noteworthy post-presidential life, President Carter left an enduring legacy of humanitarianism. The NYSE will respectfully honor President Carter’s lifetime of service to our nation by closing our markets on the National Day of Mourning."

Read More at Yahoo Finance

China’s December Factory Activity Growth Misses Expectations As Analysts Decry Insufficient Stimulus

China’s factory activity growth in December missed analysts’ expectations Tuesday, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus measures were not sufficient to meaningfully boost the country’s ailing economy. The country’s official purchasing managers’ index for December came in at 50.1, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics data showed. Production and new orders for sectors including agricultural and sideline food processing, general equipment and food and beverages rose, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Out of the 21 industries surveyed, 17 logged higher activity than the month before, including aviation, transportation and telecommunications. The construction industry also returned to expansion, lifted by upcoming Spring Festival holidays. The World Bank last Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, reflecting the recent policy adjustments. It now expects China’s GDP to grow 4.9% in 2024 compared with its previous projection of 4.8%, while in 2025.

Read more at CNBC

China’s C919 Preps For Busy 2025 As Manufacturer Makes Expansion Plans

After a banner year, China’s leading aircraft manufacturer is set to ring in an even busier 2025 as it scales up production to fulfil a bevy of orders for its home-grown planes – particularly the C919 narrowbody jet. The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) is planning a series of expansions for the new year, previewing new projects on Saturday to boost factory output in its home base of Shanghai. In a statement, the manufacturer said it will intensify cooperation with industrial chain partners in the coming year.

In October, Comac renewed deals with Shanghai officials intended to put the Chinese city on a par with Everett in the United States and Toulouse in France – enormous production hubs for aerospace manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, respectively. The manufacturer’s production base already has an army of 10,000 workers, including 5,300 skilled personnel and 3,000 technical personnel. “The C919 is entering a new journey. There are more models, faster production rates and more deliveries of differentiated models to multiple airlines. These changes have put forward new and higher requirements,” said company president He Dongfeng in a Thursday meeting, according to a report on the manufacturer’s website.

Read more at South China Morning Post

Jet Crash Disaster In South Korea Marks Another Setback For Boeing

2024 was already a dispiriting year for Boeing, the American aviation giant. But when one of the company’s jets crash-landed in South Korea on Sunday, killing all but two of the 181 people on board, it brought to a close an especially unfortunate year for Boeing. The cause of the crash remains under investigation, and aviation experts were quick to distinguish Sunday’s incident from the company’s earlier safety problems.

Alan Price, a former chief pilot at Delta Air Lines who is now a consultant, said it would be inappropriate to link the incident Sunday to two fatal crashes involving Boeing’s troubled 737 Max jetliner in 2018 and 2019. The Boeing 737-800 that crash-landed in Korea, Price noted, is “a very proven airplane. “It’s different from the Max ...It’s a very safe airplane.’’ For decades, Boeing has maintained a role as one of the giants of American manufacturing. But the the past year’s repeated troubles have been damaging. The company’s stock price is down more than 30% in 2024.

Read More at The AP

Electric Aviation Poised for Banner 2025

It will take a little longer, but industry experts are convinced electric power will be a significant player in aviation. There are already electric trainers in service, but it will really start to manifest in the coming year in the form of the first commercial eVTOL operations. Naysayers have been dismissing these things for a decade, but those that have survived the inevitable culling of every new technology are well-funded, superbly staffed and, thanks to some uncharacteristic regulatory nimbleness by the FAA, ready to go mainstream.

The tech is mind-boggling and the prospects are endless. The early discussions about these things buzzing around urban centers from rooftop hubs has largely gone away. Instead, think about the capabilities of a helicopter with a 200-knot cruise at a fraction of the cost and, in many designs, much less noise. As battery technology improves (solid state is next), the range gap will continue to shrink.

Read More at AV Web

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Surge 20% On Colder Outlook For January

US natural gas futures soared as the weather outlook for January shifted colder, raising demand prospects for the fuel used in heating and power generation. Gas for February delivery rose as much as 20% in New York. That’s the most since the contract started trading 2012. Most-active futures climbed to the highest level in almost a year. The National Weather Service expects a higher chance of colder-than-normal weather across the US East and Midwest in its latest 8-14 day outlook. That would be an abrupt shift from what’s until now been a mostly mild fall and early winter in the US.

The much colder outlook is “creating a buying frenzy,” Dennis Kissler, an energy trader and analyst at BOK Financial, wrote in a note Monday. Funds using algorithmic trading strategies have also changed their risk positions, from flat to net long, according to Stephen Roseme, managing member of Bridgeton Research Group LLC, which tracks trading activity. Additional consumption for supplying liquefied natural gas exports is expected to add to overall demand in the coming period.

Read more at The Hill

How a $12.98 T-Shirt Is Made in America—at a Profit

Walmart aisles are piled high with goods this holiday season, but one item sticks out: cotton T-shirts that were made in America and cost $12.98. The U.S. is awash in a sea of cheap imports that has destroyed much of the domestic apparel industry. In 2023, less than 4% of the apparel purchased in America was made here. Seeking to turn the tide, Donald Trump imposed tariffs in 2018 on Chinese imports during his first term as president and has proposed additional tariffs on all imports in his second term, including items from neighboring Canada and Mexico.

But it wasn’t tariffs that made the $12.98 shirt economically feasible, says Bayard Winthrop, the chief executive and founder of American Giant, the U.S. apparel company producing them. It was Walmart’s heft—and guaranteed orders. The country’s biggest retailer—and importer of consumer goods—pledged in 2013 to buy more items that were made, grown or assembled in the U.S. In 2021, Walmart increased its goal and promised to spend billions more each year through 2030. More than half of Walmart’s sales come from groceries, most of which are produced domestically.

Read more at WSJ

If You’re Enjoying A Craft Beer Right Now, Say A Word Of Thanks To Jimmy Carter

Nearly 50 years after Prohibition ended, Jimmy Carter noticed that a thicket of federal laws and regulations still remained for what was once a cottage industry across the land: home brewing. He encouraged a Democratic-controlled Congress to pass legislation in 1978 that legalized home brewing. At the time, there were fewer than 100 breweries in America, most of them making the same tasteless schlock. Today it is not uncommon to find big cities that have 100 breweries on their own.

Carter was not the only politician to push forward the cause of beer freedom, but his push is widely considered the impetus for great beers today. In 1976, Republican Gerald Ford signed into law a 20% tax cut for small commercial breweries. State by state, breweries were freed from local red tape, and starting in Washington state, pubs that brew their own beer were legalized, an idea we imported from England. And America changed fast. Home hobbyists became entrepreneurs. California’s Sierra Nevada Brewing Company was born in 1981. The precursor to Michigan’s Bell’s Brewery appeared on the scene in 1983. By 1985, in Reagan’s second term, the number of commercial breweries in the United States had doubled.

Read more at The Kansas City Star

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