Member Briefing December 9, 2024
NFIB: Small Business Labor Costs Rise in November
NFIB’s November jobs report found that labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose three points to 11%, only two points below the highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. “Main Street owners continue to feel pressure to raise compensation at historically high levels to attract and retain workers” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 32% of small business owners reported raising compensation in November, up one point from October. A net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up five points from October and the highest reading of this year.
- The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top operating problem fell one point from October to 19%.
- A seasonally adjusted net 18% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up three points from October.
- Overall, 55% of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in November, up two points from October’s lowest reading since January 2021.
- Forty-eight percent (87% of those hiring or trying to hire) of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-nine percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 19% reported none.
- Thirty percent have openings for skilled workers (down one point) and 13% have openings for unskilled labor (down one point).
US Payrolls Rebound From Storms and Strikes, Rising by 227,000
America’s job market rebounded in November, adding 227,000 workers in a solid recovery from the previous month, when the effects of strikes and hurricanes had sharply diminished employers’ payrolls. Last month’s hiring growth was up considerably from a meager gain of 36,000 jobs in October. The government also revised up its estimate of job growth in September and October by a combined 56,000.
Friday’s report from the Labor Department report showed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% in October to 4.2%. Hourly wages rose 0.4% from October to November and 4% from a year earlier — both slightly higher than forecasters had expected. Manufacturing added a net 22,000 seasonally adjusted jobs last month, all of it in durable goods. Employment in durable goods rose 26,000, while employment in nondurables declined by 4,000. Transportation equipment manufacturing accounted for almost all the gains.
Election-Related Jolt to Consumer Sentiment, But Inflation Worries Remain
Consumer sentiment perked up in early December, reaching a nine-month-high at 74.0. This preliminary December release ran from November 19 to December 2, giving us additional color on how the election outcome has immediately shaped sentiment and how households felt during the all-important traditional kick-off to the holiday sales season. The rise in sentiment was due entirely to a surge in optimism around current conditions, which rose by the most in a single month since at least 2000. But consumers didn't grow more confident in the future. The measure of expectations pulled back in early December to the lowest value in six months.
American households' year-ahead inflation expectations popped back up in early December to 2.9% after reaching the lowest level in November since the pandemic-era bout of inflation drove expectations higher. It appears looming tariff-related price pressure is of concern. The accompanying release noted that, "Democrats voiced concerns that anticipated policy changes, particularly tariff hikes, would lead to a resurgence in inflation. Republicans disagreed; they expect the next president will usher in an immense slowdown in inflation." This underlying disagreement under the surface appears to have shaken out as an upward move around inflation expectations.Notably, long-term expectations around inflation over the next 5-10 years remain in check, a development the Fed will be pleased to see.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow, Granted Political Asylum, Amid Rebel Revolt, Russia Says - Forbes
- Who are the rebels in Syria? - BBC
- Assad’s Rule Collapses in Syria, Raising Concerns of a Vacuum - WSJ
- With Assad Gone a New Era Starts in Syria as the World Watches - Reuters
- Watch: Presidential Palace Stormed In Damascus - BBC
- Netanyahu Celebrates Assad Regime Collapse: 'Historic Day' - Newsweek
- White House On Guard Against Islamic State Resurgence In Syria - VOA
- Israeli Troops Enter Syrian Buffer Zone as Rebels Advance - WSJ
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukrainian War Dead Reaches 43,000, Zelensky Says In Rare Update - BBC
- US Will Send Ukraine $725 Million More In Counter-Drone Systems, Anti-Personnel Land Mines - AP
- Putin's Western Adversaries Are in Disarray - Newsweek
- Bracing For A Russian Attack: EU Defense Chief Wants €100B For Weapons - Politico
- Trump Calls For ‘Immediate Ceasefire’ In Ukraine After Meeting Zelenskyy In Paris - AP
- Zelenskyy-Macron Trilateral Was All Smiles And Handshakes - Politico
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- French Socialist Leader Extends Olive Branch To Macron As Talks On Next Government Begin - Politico
- South Korea President's Impeachment Vote Fails Due To Boycott By Ruling Party – Nikkei Asia
- South Korea Presidential Impeachment Vote Fails: What Happens Next? - Newsweek
- A Sidelined Sitting President: South Korea’s Leader Won’t Run the Country - WSJ
- Romanian Court Cancels Presidential Election Amid Russian Influence Fears - Politico
- Military Leader Dissolves Burkina Faso's Government - BBC
- Notre-Dame Cathedral holds first Mass after five-year restoration – France 24
- Europe's Population Crisis - Newsweek
- China Arms Sales Experience Slight Growth Globally As Challenges Remain – VOA
Policy and Politics
Trump Says He Won’t Seek To Remove Fed Chairman Powell
President-elect Trump in a new interview said he does not plan to try and fire Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve upon taking office next year. “No, I don’t think so. I don’t see it,” Trump told Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press.” Powell, whose term ends in 2026, told reporters last month he would not step down from his position if Trump asked. Powell added that it is “not permitted under the law” for the president to fire or demote him or any of the other Fed governors with leadership positions.
Trump appointed Powell during his first term in 2017 but repeatedly and publicly criticized the Fed and its chair for not cutting rates fast enough throughout his tenure. Trump suggested earlier this year that Powell, a lifelong Republican, was “political” and would cut rates ahead of the 2024 election to help Democrats. While the Fed did cut rates in September by a whopping 50 basis points, Trump handily defeated Vice President Harris in November’s election. The Fed is a politically independent agency and closely guards its reputation.
Federal Court Tosses Boeing’s Plea Deal
The plea agreement between Boeing and the U.S. Dept. of Justice has been rejected by a U.S. federal judge who cited “diversity” provisions in the agreement. In his decision, U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor wrote “the Court is not convinced … that the Government will not choose a monitor without race-based considerations and thus will not act in a nondiscriminatory manner. In a case of this magnitude, it is in the utmost interest of justice that the public is confident this monitor selection is done based solely on competency.”
The agreement between the U.S. Dept. of Justice and Boeing involved a guilty plea to a charge of criminal fraud conspiracy, plus a maximum fine of $487.2 million and a penalty that requires Boeing to invest $455 million to regularize its manufacturing programs’ safety standards. The deal had been challenged by families of the 346 people killed in the two 737 MAX jet crashes, in 2018 and 2019.
What To Know About The UnitedHealthcare CEO Murder—As NYPD Releases New Photos Of Suspect
Police released two new photos Saturday of a man they believe fatally shot UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, marking the latest development after what police said was a “brazen targeted attack” on the health insurance executive in Manhattan last week. Thompson was shot in the back and right calf outside of the New York Hilton Midtown just before 7 a.m. Wednesday morning and was rushed to Mount Sinai West in critical condition, where he was pronounced dead, NYPD officials said at a press conference Wednesday.
The suspect’s identity hasn’t been released, but the New York Police Department released new photos of a masked “person of interest” in a taxi late Saturday, adding to two unmasked photos of the suspect reportedly taken at a hostel where he stayed prior to the shooting. Here is what we know about the investigation and manhunt so far.
Health and Wellness
USDA to Begin National Testing for Bird Flu in Milk
The Agriculture Department said it would launch national testing of cow’s milk for the presence of bird flu to help regulators monitor U.S. dairy processors. The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said Friday that its “National Milk Testing Strategy” is designed to quickly find the presence of the disease in cow’s milk or in the cows themselves, by compiling random samples from different processing plants and testing them for the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza.
The virus is widespread among bird flocks, having been detected in over 110 million poultry birds, as well as more wild birds. The disease spread to U.S. cattle herds and has been transmitted to humans, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC reported nearly 60 human cases, mostly among dairy and poultry workers. The order requires dairy farmers to share raw milk samples from their operations upon request from the USDA. Cow owners that have animals that test positive for the disease also have to produce more information upon request, allowing federal agencies to do contact tracing to better find the source of an outbreak.
NYS COVID Update
The Governor updated COVID data for the week ending December 6th.
Deaths:
- Weekly: 20
- Total Reported to CDC: 84,518
Hospitalizations:
- Average Daily Patients in Hospital statewide: 432
- Patients in ICU Beds: 54
7 Day Average Cases per 100K population
- 2.7 positive cases per 100,00 population, Statewide
- 3.7 positive cases per 100,00 population, Mid-Hudson
Useful Websites:
Transition 2024
- Trump Nomination Pace, Lack Of Vetting Gives Senate GOP Headaches – The Hill
- Rep. Ocasio-Cortez To Seek Top Democratic Spot-On House Oversight Committee – NY State Of Politics
- Democratic Governors (And 2028 Hopefuls) Gather To Chart Path Under A Trump Administration - Politico
- Donald Trump Says U.S. Should ‘Not Get Involved’ In Syria’s Civil War - Forbes
- Donald Trump Says He Thinks Pete Hegseth Can Get Confirmed In NBC News Interview - NBC
- Trump Says He Will Act ‘Very Quickly’ To Pardon Jan. 6 Rioters Upon Taking Office – The Hill
- Trump’s Cabinet Is Filled With Big Personalities. It’s A Feature — And A Possible Bug. - Politico
- DOGE’s Musk, Ramaswamy Want Congress To Pass Huge Spending Cuts. That’s A Tough Sell - CNBC
- House GOP To Choose Chairs For Influential Committees: Who’s In The Running – The Hill
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Picks – Politico
Industry News
Health Insurers Step Up Security, Scrub Websites Of Leadership Information
The killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is spurring other major health companies to remove the photos of executives from their websites, close buildings and even switch to a virtual investor day rather than an in-person public event. Amid rising security concerns, companies have removed previously public information from their websites. UnitedHealth Group, the parent company of UnitedHealthcare, has removed the “Our Leaders” webpage showing the photos and bios of its top executives.
Corporate security consultants said removing identifying information like photos is a good step for companies to take if they’re worried about risks, though in this case that information is mostly already public. Chris Pierson, CEO of BlackCloak, which provides private digital security for C-suite executives and their families, noted companies can sometimes make too much information public in an attempt to humanize executives. “Things that are meant to deliver trust and confidence in the executives, humanize them … can be used for ill will,” Pierson said. “And so reducing and mitigating the amount of things that are out there is absolutely something that should be examined.”
US Chamber: Trade is a Win for American Families and Workers
A recent U.S. Chamber survey shows that Americans benefit from trade, recognizing its role in boosting economic growth, driving innovation, and expanding opportunities for workers and businesses of all sizes. More than 40 million American jobs depend on trade. Selling more American-made goods and services to 95% of the world’s consumers who live outside our borders is a key driver of economic growth. Industries like manufacturing, agriculture, and technology rely on trade agreements for access to global markets. Trade agreements also help reduce tariffs and ensure a reliable flow of goods, which lowers prices for everyday essentials, benefiting families across the nation.
Here are four findings from a recent survey of Americans.
- By a nearly six-to-one margin, they think trade improves their standard of living.
- By a four-to-one margin, they think they should be free to buy products from friendly nations and sell U.S.-made goods to them without government interference.
- Two-thirds want the U.S. to lead in crafting pro-growth trade agreements with friendly countries.
- Nearly half support trading more with people from other nations.
Read more at The US Chamber of Commerce
U.S. Economy Is Doing What Few Others Are: Getting More Productive
Inflation and the labor market are both cooling, but a subtle force has powered strong U.S. economic growth nonetheless. Americans keep finding ways to get more done at work. As a result, many businesses have been able to do more with less and up their revenue without passing on higher costs to customers—a process that makes this trend, called productivity growth, a key ingredient for a low-inflation economic boom.
So far this year, the quarterly productivity of U.S. workers has grown by at least 2% compared with a year earlier. The three months through Sept. 30 were the fifth straight quarter of such growth. Over the past five years, quarterly year-over-year productivity growth has averaged 2.1%, a sharp improvement from growth over the 10 years prior. In Europe, productivity has grown by less than a 1% compounded annual rate since 2015. In Canada, annual productivity growth has averaged barely better than 0% since 2019. In the U.S., productivity growth has been a critical development that has allowed for strong economic output and declining inflation, even as the labor market cools, Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler said in a speech this week.
DOD Awards $1.3 Billion to Pratt & Whitney for F135 MRO
The U.S. Dept. of Defense awarded $1.3 billion to Pratt & Whitney, a modification to a previously assigned contract, exercising an option for a wide range of MRO and other services for the F135 engine. The one-year range of the award covers activities through November 2025. Pratt & Whitney’s F135 turbofan engine is the power supply for all three variants of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet, with over 1,200 units supplied to date. An ongoing Engine Core Upgrade project is underway to advance the capabilities and durability of the F-35 propulsion system.
The scope of the contract covers depot level maintenance and repair, sustainment support, program management, financial and administrative activities, propulsion integration, replenishment spare part buys, engineering support, material management, configuration management, product management support, software sustainment, security management, joint technical data updates, and support equipment management for all the F135 propulsion systems now in service or in production.
Read more at American Machinist
Eli Lilly Expands in Wisconsin
Eli Lilly and Co. on Thursday unveiled a $3 billion expansion of its facility in the Kenosha County. The announcement marked one of the biggest business developments in southeastern Wisconsin for the year. For Lilly, the planned development represents the biggest investment the company is making outside of its home state of Indiana. In April, Lilly bought a facility in Pleasant Prairie from Nexus Pharmaceuticals, LLC. That facility currently has roughly 100 Lilly employees working at the facility.
According to the company, both buildings and development will represent about $4 billion of investment from Lilly in it’s facilities in Kenosha County. The company says 750 people will be hired to work at the facility. This facility plans to focus on products that address diabetes and obesity. Specifically it’s drugs Zepbound, which addresses obesity, and Mounjaro, which treats diabetes.
Read more at The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
FTC Cracks Down On 3 Clothing Companies For False ‘Made In USA’ Claims
FTC investigators found that the brands, based in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, made deceptive claims about where their products were made. A number of the accessories were wholly imported or used significant imported components from countries like Taiwan, according to the complaint. The three jointly-owned companies share manufacturing operations in Haverhill, Massachusetts, according to their websites. Chaucer Accessories, Bates Accessories and Bates Retail Group did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The FTC started cracking down on “Made in USA” labels after it fined Williams Sonoma nearly $3.2 million in 2020, the largest fine in history of its kind. The company was cited for falsely labeling imported goods as U.S.-made, including product lines under its Goldtouch, Rejuvenation, Pottery Barn Teen and Pottery Barn Kids. As of April, the FTC has issued $15,754,043 worth of judgments for “Made in USA” in 11 different cases since 2021, when the law was finalized.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
NASA Announces Further Delays In Artemis Moon Missions
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced on Thursday new delays in the U.S. space agency's Artemis program to return astronauts to the moon for the first time since 1972, pushing back the next two planned missions amid potential policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Nelson told a news conference at NASA headquarters that the next Artemis mission, sending astronauts around the moon and back, has slipped to April 2026, with the subsequent astronaut landing mission using SpaceX's Starship planned for the following year.
The newly announced delays came after NASA concluded an examination of the Orion crew capsule, made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab, and its heat shield, which had cracked and partially eroded during reentry into Earth's atmosphere on its debut 2022 uncrewed test mission, Artemis I. Unlike the Apollo missions, the Artemis program also calls for building lunar bases that will help pave the way for the more ambitious future goal of sending astronauts to Mars.
A Groundbreaking Project Launched By MIT And Meclux Will Expedite The Integration Of Self-Learning AI In Logistics.
Exploration is underway for new AI applications in the logistics sector. One recent advancement was announced on December 3 by The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Transportation & Logistics (MIT CTL) and intralogistics group Mecalux. They have begun a five-year collaborative project to expedite the integration of self-learning artificial intelligence (AI) in logistics through MIT’s Intelligent Logistics Systems Lab.
During the first year of the project two key research areas to accelerate innovation will be developed. The first will focus on increasing the productivity of autonomous warehouse robots. Using advanced simulation, optimization, and machine learning techniques, researchers will develop a “swarm intelligence” system enabling multiple robots to operate as a single entity, making collective decisions. The second research area will focus on training self-learning AI models. The Intelligent Logistics Systems Lab will design systems capable of learning from demand patterns and anticipating new customer purchasing habits.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
GlobalFoundries Secures An Additional $9.5 Million To Advance Vermont Chip Manufacturing
The GlobalFoundries plant in Essex Junction has been awarded an additional $9.5 million in federal funding to support advanced chip production in Vermont. The funding aims to boost manufacturing of GlobalFoundries’ gallium nitride chips, known as GaN, at its Vermont plant, according to a press release the company issued Wednesday. It said the chip technology allows for higher performance and better energy efficiency across a range of uses, particularly those used in military technology.
The new funding, from the U.S. Department of Defense’s Trusted Access Program Office, will support upgrades to GlobalFoundries’ manufacturing tools and boost production of advanced GaN chips that are designed to allow devices to connect more quickly to the internet, according to the press release. The additional $9.5 million brings the total federal investment in the company’s GaN chips to $80 million since 2020 with the goal of full-scale GaN chip manufacturing, according to the release. The GlobalFoundries plant in Essex Junction is one of the largest private employers in Vermont. The plant, originally operated by IBM, is a key player in the semiconductor industry, manufacturing advanced chips used in various sectors, including defense and communications.