Member Briefing February 11, 2025
A 3-Point Strategy To Address Tariff Disruption
Tariffs can be a powerful and effective tool for a large economy. Since the implementation of tariffs on China in 2017, we’ve seen a dramatic shift in trade patterns, with China shrinking from accounting for more than 21% of U.S. imports to less than 14%, while Mexico and Southeast Asia have risen to fill the gap. At the same time, U.S. manufacturing investment has more than doubled to more than $220 billion a year over the same period. If the goal was reducing dependence on Chinese imports and increasing domestic U.S. manufacturing, then there’s clearly been movement toward it.
But these measures can also come with costs and unpredictable consequences. Retaliatory measures are difficult to foresee, and as we experienced with the tariff rounds of 2017, there were companies that were clear winners and losers in the changing economic landscape and balance of supply chain power. The best companies have refined their supply chain response playbooks over the last few years, and have taken specific actions to better weather the disruptions. These businesses have focused on three key levers: 1 — Mitigating immediate risks (short-term actions). 2 — Making structural adjustments (medium-term actions). 3 — Building supply chain resilience (long-term actions.)
Read more at Supply Chain Brain
NY Fed Finds Mostly Stable Inflation Expectations In January
The U.S. public’s near-term inflation expectations were largely stable in January, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report found, as respondents to the survey also predicted a notable softening in future spending plans. The expected level of inflation at both the one-year and three-year ahead horizons was unchanged at 3% last month, the bank said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations released on Monday, while the expected level of inflation five years from now moved to 3% from 2.7% in December. January also saw the public predict bigger future price rises for food, gasoline, rent, college and medical costs, while home price expectations increased to 3.2% from December’s 3.1%.
Fed officials believe the expected level of inflation has a strong influence on actual price pressures and have flagged stable expectations as part of their confidence inflation will ultimately return to the 2% target. In a separate report on Monday, the Cleveland Fed said that in the first quarter top business executives expected weaker inflation pressures over the next year, with the predicted change in the consumer price index falling to 3.2% from 3.8% in the final quarter of 2024.
Consumers Might Finally Be Accepting Higher-For-Longer Mortgage Rates
Today’s higher mortgage rate reality is finally sinking in with potential homebuyers and sellers. As average 30-year mortgage rates have stayed stuck around 7%, the net share of consumers who believe they’ll fall in the next 12 months declined sharply in Fannie Mae’s latest survey on housing market attitudes. Just 35% of respondents polled by the mortgage giant in January now expect mortgage rates to drop, down from 42% in December and a survey-high 45% in November. The share of consumers who think rates will rise jumped to 32%, from 25%.
Housing market economists have warned that mortgage rates might not fall much this year after the Fed lowered its expectations for rate-cutting and uncertainties linger over how President Donald Trump’s economic agenda could affect inflation and economic growth. But for many months, consumers stayed stubbornly optimistic that rates were headed lower. That appears to be shifting. The percentage of respondents who believe home prices will rise in the next year jumped to 43%, from 38%, while the share of those who think prices will fall declined to 22%, from 27%. Meanwhile, consumers are also growing more concerned about rising rents. 65% now think home rental prices will increase, up from 57% in December.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Hamas Says It's Suspending The Release Of Israeli Hostages– BBC
- Hamas's Armed Wing Says Next Gaza Hostages Release Will Be Delayed 'Until Further Notice' – France 24
- Kurds In The New Syria Want To Preserve The Cultural Rights They Gained In Years Of War - AP
- Israel Troops Withdraw From Corridor That Split Gaza In Two - BBC
- Trump: Palestinians Wouldn’t Have Right To Return To Developed Gaza – The Hill
- Iran Makes Threat Over World Oil Supplies - Newsweek
- Frailty of Israeli Hostages Freed by Hamas Sparks Alarm - WSJ
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia Says U.S. Relations Are On Brink Of Collapse, Refuses To Confirm Trump Call Claim – NBC
- Russian Cable Under NATO Lake Damaged Through 'External Influence': Moscow - Newsweek
- Inside The New Plan To Seize Russia’s Shadow Fleet - Politico
- Russia’s Crude Output Dips Below OPEC+ Target - Oilprice
- ‘Be Cruel’: Inside Russia’s Torture System for Ukrainian POWs - WSJ
- Zelensky Says North Korean Troops Back On Front Line - BBC
- Russia Appears To Deploy Troops on Horseback in Ukraine - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Trial Of Man Accused Of Attacking Salman Rushdie Begins In Chautauqua County Court. - WKBW Buffalo
- Children's Bodies A 'Battleground' In Haiti As Sexual Violence Surges, UNICEF Warns - Reuters
- Thousands Stranded As US Suspends Refugee Program - Context
- Germany’s Far Right Woos The Workers In Election Battle - Politico
- Romania's President Iohannis Resigns In Face Of Impeachment Threat From Hard-Right Opposition – France 24
- Why More Young Men In Germany Are Turning To The Far Right - BBC
- New Zealand Concerns Rise As Cook Islands Plans To Sign Agreement With China - NBC
- Gonorrhea Cases Hit Record High As STIs Soar In Europe - Politico
- Scores Of Bodies Uncovered In Libyan Mass Graves Linked To Human Trafficking – France 24
- French PM François Bayrou Survives Another No-Confidence Vote Over Social Security Budget – France 24
- Chinese Spy Balloon Carried Technology From At Least Five US Firms - Newsweek
Policy and Politics
Trump Imposes Global 25% Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
President Trump on Monday announced 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to the U.S., reinstating global duties without exceptions for allies such as Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea that were relaxed by the Biden administration. A White House official said the tariffs would take effect March 4. The steel tariffs will likely not be easily negotiated away by foreign governments. Unlike the earlier threats on Mexico, Canada, and Colombia, which were aimed at solving non-trade policy disputes, Trump and his economic team have said that the global steel trade is unfair for the U.S. because of subsidies that other governments—particularly China—provide for their own steel companies.
The subsidies and other trade barriers allow many foreign countries to sell steel to American customers cheaper than U.S.-made metals, and the tariffs seek to make those foreign metals more expensive to make American products competitive with them. Trump has also said he would impose so-called “reciprocal” tariffs this week on virtually every trading partner, aiming to match the level of tariffs imposed by foreign nations. Administration officials didn’t say whether those tariffs would be on top of the steel and aluminum tariffs announced Monday. The National Foreign Trade Council, an industry group for large U.S. companies, said Trump’s move would harm competitiveness and increase costs paid by American manufacturers.
Senate GOP Unveils $340B Budget Plan With Trump’s Deportation And Defense Funds, As House Stalls
Senate Republicans are moving forward with their own budget plan to fund President Trump's agenda despite a request from House Speaker Mike Johnson to hold off and let the lower chamber take the lead. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, released a 61-page budget resolution on Friday, setting the groundwork for the Senate to later pass a budget reconciliation bill focused on border security, defense and energy priorities. House Republicans have been at odds with their Senate colleagues, preferring to pass one major bill that also includes extending tax cuts enacted during Mr. Trump's first term and potentially a debt ceiling suspension.
The resolution would direct the Judiciary Committee and the Homeland Security Committee to each propose $175 billion in additional spending. The Armed Services Committee could propose $150 billion in new spending, while the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee would be allotted $20 billion and the Environment and Public Works Committee $1 billion. Several other committees would be instructed to find at least $1 billion in cuts.
New York’s Top Court To Consider Noncitizen Voting In City Elections
New York’s top court is set to consider whether documented noncitizens can vote in New York City elections. The case, which will be argued Tuesday, could significantly reshape the city’s political landscape. Nearly a million potential voters would be allowed to participate in elections like mayoral contests if Democrats prevail. New York City’s measure became law in 2022. It would allow green-card holders and individuals with work permits who have lived in the city for at least a month to cast ballots in municipal elections. Republicans quickly challenged the law, and two lower courts have blocked it. Most estimates suggest the new law would make an additional 800,000 people eligible to vote.
For the measure to go into effect, Democratic attorneys need to convince the court — which is dominated by Democrats. And while that makeup could play in their favor, the court hasn’t always sided with the party on election issues. Much of the Republican argument challenging the law rests on specific language in the state constitution: “Every citizen shall be entitled to vote at every election for all officers elected by the people and upon all questions submitted to the vote of the people.” An appellate court ruled last year that the passage means an “irrefutable inference applies that noncitizens were intended to be excluded from those entitled to vote.” The panel of judges decided 3-1 to block the law.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Trump’s Approval Rating At 53% In New Poll—But Americans Are Less Sure About Elon Musk - Forbes
- Trump Administration Seeks Urgent End Of ‘Impermissible’ Court Order Blocking Access To Treasury Systems - Politico
- Musk Will Find Billions In Pentagon Waste, Trump Says - Reuters
- Judge Directs Trump Administration To Comply With Order To Unfreeze Federal Grants – The Hill
- Here Are All The Major Lawsuits Against Trump And Musk—As Judge Says Trump Violated Order To Unfreeze Federal Funds - Forbes
- The Musk Deputy Running DOGE’s Huge Cost-Cutting Drive - WSJ
- Acting CFPB Chief Tells All Staff To Cease 'Any Work Tasks' - Yahoo
- Trump Says He Has Ordered Treasury To Stop Producing ‘Wasteful’ Pennies - Forbes
- Here are the New York politicos in line for Trump admin jobs – City & State
- Vance Proves Pivotal In Pushing Through Controversial Trump Nominees – The Hill
- De Minimis Exemption Temporarily Returns For Products From China – Supply Chain Dive
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Confirmations - NYT
Health and Wellness
New York Poultry Markets Ordered To Close Temporarily As Bird Flu Concerns Spread
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul ordered a temporary closure of live-poultry markets after bird flu was detected in the outer boroughs of New York City. The order, signed by Hochul on Friday, requires the markets to close down between Feb. 7 and Feb. 14 as facilities undergo a complete disinfection process. It calls for markets that have not tested positive for bird flu to sell down all inventory and shut down for five days after the cleaning process in New York City, plus Westchester, Suffolk and Nassau counties. Sellers that do have indications of bird flu among their flock must contact the state’s Department of Agriculture and Markets.
Hochul described the measure as proactive, though seven cases of bird flu were detected in Queens, the Bronx and Brooklyn in the first week of the month. The Wildlife Conservation Society said on Saturday that three ducks died at the Queens Zoo due to avian influenza. At least 12 birds died at the Bronx Zoo “that may have had exposure to the virus,” the society said. Lab testing must be completed to confirm the cause of death. Concerns about bird flu continue to rise across the U.S. as cases grow, contributing to the skyrocketing cost of eggs. Thieves stole 100,000 eggs in Pennsylvania earlier this week, the total worth racking up to around $40,000.
Industry News
China's Tit-For-Tat Tariffs On US Take Effect
China's tit-for-tat import taxes on some American goods came into effect on Monday, as the trade war between the world's two biggest economies escalates and US President Donald Trump threatens to hit more countries with tariffs. Beijing announced the plan on 4 February, minutes after new US levies of 10% on all Chinese products came into effect. China's latest tariffs on US goods include a 15% border tax on imports of US coal and liquefied natural gas products. There is also a 10% tariff on American crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars.
Last week, Chinese authorities launched an anti-monopoly probe into technology giant Google, while PVH, the US owner of designer brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, was added to Beijing's so-called "unreliable entity" list. China has also imposed export controls on 25 rare metals, some of which are key components for many electrical products and military equipment.
China’s Strategy in Trade War: Threaten U.S. Tech Companies
Chinese officials are building a list of U.S. technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, hoping to influence the tech executives who are heavily represented in President Trump’s orbit. People familiar with Beijing’s strategy said the goal was to collect as many cards as possible to play in expected negotiations with the Trump administration over U.S.-China issues, including the tariffs that Trump has imposed on Chinese goods.
Beijing has already said it is investigating Nvidia and Google over alleged antitrust issues. Other American companies in its sights include Apple, Silicon Valley tech company Broadcom and semiconductor-design software vendor Synopsys, said people familiar with the matter. Synopsys has a $35 billion acquisition awaiting approval by Beijing. China needs all the leverage it can get to hit back at the U.S., and antitrust is one of the most useful, said Tom Nunlist, a Shanghai-based tech policy specialist at consulting firm Trivium China.
Could a Bee Shortage Impact Prices at the Grocery Store?
Bees died off by the millions this winter in an unprecedented event that’s resulted in recent losses of more than 50% and financial losses of more than $139 million, according to a survey by bee industry groups released this afternoon. The new survey results, representing 234 beekeepers, come just as the California almond growing season is set to begin, a massive event that requires pretty much all of the country’s 3 million honeybees colonies to be trucked out so they can pollinate the trees.
Almonds are the current, urgent problem. After that, bees are needed to pollinate other fruits, including blueberries, cherries, cranberries and apples. For consumers, the bee die-off – for which there is no known cause yet – may become apparent in shortages on the grocery shelves or higher prices of these beloved foods. The winter losses combined with earlier losses this year decimated many beekeepers’ hives by 70% to 100%, according to the researchers, who represent the American Beekeeping Federation, the American Honey Producers Association and Adee Honey Farms, as well as Project Apis m. That’s left some beekeepers wondering how they’ll survive, and growers scrambling to get bees to pollinate their crops.
Musk, AI May Transform Pentagon Acquisitions
After targeting federal agencies like USAID and the General Services Administration, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency is about to take on the Pentagon, according to President Donald Trump. For decades, multiple administrations and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have tried to reform defense spending, decrying the slow pace of acquisition and high costs while pointing to egregious examples like the infamous $14,000 toilet seat lid. But even more than cutting costs, Musk and DOGE could improve the Pentagon by making it more efficient, according to Richard Danzig, who served as Navy secretary under President Bill Clinton.
In a Washington Post op-ed on Thursday, he pointed to a “dismal truth” revealed by the Pentagon’s effort under the Biden administration to procure cutting-edge drones, noting that it took place outside the usual bureaucratic channels and instead via the Defense Innovation Unit. Meanwhile, the Navy’s shipbuilding systems are stuck in the 20th century, and produced just 12 warships last year while China made 30, he added. “The tools to change this—most notably software and artificial intelligence—lie at hand,” Danzig wrote. “Musk is the great master, not at inventing these technologies but at something equally important, and rarer: applying technology to solve old problems in new ways.”
Breeze Airways Adds New Destination At Westchester County Airport
Breeze Airways, which offers non-daily, nonstop service to 14 destinations from Westchester County Airport at White Plains, is adding another one – to Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina beginning May 1. David Neeleman, the airway’s founder and CEO, said they “look forward to continued growth from Westchester County Airport.”
Breeze also offers flights from New York Stewart International Airport at Newburgh. Breeze targets leisure travelers with flights to southern destinations including Florida. Neeleman was the founder of Jet Blue Airways, which operated service at Stewart, but pulled out when the COVID-10 pandemic struck and never returned.
ON Semiconductor Earnings Disappoint
ON Semiconductor reported a fourth-quarter earnings miss and issued weak guidance Monday. The company posted earnings of 95 cents a share in the December quarter, narrowly missing Wall Street expectations for 97 cents. Revenue of $1.72 billion also missed the consensus estimate of $1.76 billion, according to FactSet. ON Semiconductor stock was down 7.9% to $47.19 in premarket trading Monday.
Revenue declined year-over-year across all three of the company’s business divisions. Revenue for the Power Solutions Group segment fell 16% to $809.4 million, while revenue for the Advanced Solutions Group segment decreased 18% to $610.6 million. The company’s Intelligent Sensing Group segment, which develops image signal processors and other sensor technologies, brought in $302.5 million during the quarter, up 9% sequentially but down 2% from the prior year. Management said the company anticipates adjusted earnings in the range of 45 cents to 55 cents for the first quarter of 2025. Analysts were expecting 89 cents. On forecast revenue between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion, below analysts’ calls for $1.69 billion.
Job Cuts Ahead at Boeing Space Rocket Project
Boeing has confirmed its Defense, Space, & Security unit will downsize in the coming weeks as it realigns the Space Launch System (SLS) “moon rocket” project with changes to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Artemis program. The contractor will issue 60-day notices to about 400 workers in that unit in the coming weeks. The changes are apparently not connected to the wider downsizing effort at Boeing, which is linked mainly to the ongoing losses in the commercial aerospace business but will target executives, managers, and regular employees across the company.
Boeing SLS is a heavy-lift, expendable launch vehicle developed from Space Shuttle technology, e.g., solid rocket boosters and the RS-25 liquid-fueled rocket engine. SLS was selected by NASA as the launch vehicle for its Orion spacecraft. Its sole use to date was the Artemis I mission, completed successfully in 2022. The Artemis program was established by NASA in 2017 to revive lunar exploration, and in the long-term to establish a permanent base on the Moon, in preparation for human missions to Mars.
Read more at American Machinist
Tariffs Helped a South Carolina Town. They Left American Shoppers Worse Off.
ust before the start of Donald Trump’s first term, this small county with acres devoted to chicken and egg farming made a bid to revive its manufacturing glory days. The timing was perfect: Trump was talking about imposing tariffs on imports, and foreign companies looking to avoid them were open to setting up shop in the U.S. The county landed Korean manufacturer Samsung Electronics, whose washing machine factory now employs more than 1,500 workers and brings the county $1 million each year in tax revenue. Two other Korean firms followed Samsung to Newberry to supply parts for its washing machines, adding hundreds more jobs for the county.
The arrival of Samsung in 2017 created more jobs for American workers. But Trump’s tariffs on washing machines raised the cost of the appliance nationwide for American consumers. The tariffs may have led to an additional 1,800 washing machine jobs created by Samsung and other firms. But price increases caused by the tariffs cost U.S. consumers about $1.5 billion annually, according to a study in the American Economic Review, or more than $800,000 per job created.
Asteroid Could Devastate Earth In 2182: What to Know
Bennu, a rocky object classified as a near-Earth asteroid, has a one-in-2,700 chance of colliding with the Earth in September 2182, new research has discovered. The IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea published its study in the journal Science Advances last week, reported on by Reuters. Although the chances of a collision are "quite small," according to one of the study's authors, the study lays bare the potential impact of an event like this.
Researchers used computer simulations to study the impact of an asteroid with the diameter of Bennu (about 500 meters) to ascertain what the fallout of the collision would be. They found that atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis would be disrupted for between three to four years—because the impact would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere. In a worst-case scenario, the average surface temperature would decrease by around 7 degrees Fahrenheit, the average rainfall would fall by 15 percent, plant photosynthesis would decrease by between 20 and 30 percent and the planet's ozone layer would deplete by 32 percent.