Member Briefing February 10, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles Dismantle Kansas City Chiefs to Win Super Bowl LXI
Behind a MVP performance from quarterback Jalen Hurts and a defensive masterclass that harried, hit and harassed Patrick Mahomes into one of the worst games of his career, the Eagles steamrolled to a 40-22 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in New Orleans that wasn’t as narrow as the scoreline suggests.
Productivity Growth Moderates at the End of 2024
The U.S. workforce continues to do more with less. Nonfarm labor productivity, or output per hour worked, increased at a 1.2% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. While the quarterly gain was softer than the past few quarters, the choppiness in output growth makes readings of productivity growth volatile on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Smoothing through the quarterly noise, labor productivity rose 2.3% in 2024, an improvement from the 1.6% rise in 2023. The labor market's normalization, combined with the prevalence of remote work and investment in labor-saving technologies since the pandemic, appear to have boosted the run rate of productivity growth in recent years.
The strong performance in 2024 has helped to lift productivity growth closer to its historical (post-WWII) average. Over the current business cycle (2019–2024), nonfarm labor productivity growth has averaged a 1.8% annual pace, a few tenths higher than the 1.5% pace averaged over the prior cycle (2007–2019) and a stone's throw away from the economy's long-term average of 2.1%. The recent strength may reflect some catch up after anemic growth before the pandemic. Productivity was noticeably lackluster following the Great Recession, as the scars from the downturn depressed capital investment and weighed on the vibrancy of the labor market.
Employers Added 143,000 Jobs in January, Unemployment Edged Down to 4%, Wages Ticked Up
The U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate edged down to 4%, showing cooling but still solid gains for the labor market, the Labor Department said Friday. The gain in jobs marked a drop from November and December, but the job counts for November and December were revised upward by a combined 100,000. Wages rose more than expected.
- The average hourly earnings increased 0.5% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.
- Manufacturing added 3,000 jobs
- Sectors including healthcare and retail added jobs, the government employment sector added 32,000 jobs,
- Employment declined in mining and oil and gas extraction.
- The report also featured significant benchmark revisions to the 2024. The revisions, which the BLS does each year, reduced the jobs count by 589,000 in the 12 months through March 2024.
- The level of those reporting at work, as computed in the household survey, soared by 2.23 million, the product of annual adjustments for population and immigration in the country. The household survey happens separately from the establishment survey used to tally total jobs.
NFIB: Hiring Difficulties Persist For Small Businesses
NFIB’s January jobs report found that 35% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in January, unchanged from December. Job openings were the highest in the transportation, construction, and manufacturing sectors. “Small business owners are certainly feeling hopeful about the direction of the economy,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, employment remains a top concern as Main Street owners continue to face challenges in finding qualified employees to fill their open positions.”
- Overall, 52% of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in January, down three points from December.
- Forty-seven percent (90% of those hiring or trying to hire) of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.
- Twenty-nine percent have openings for skilled workers (unchanged) and 10% have openings for unskilled labor (down three points).
- A seasonally adjusted net 18% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down one point from December.
- The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top operating problem fell one point from December to 18%.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 33% of small business owners reported raising compensation in January, up four points from December’s lowest reading since March 2021. A net 20% (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down four points December.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Netanyahu Orders Negotiators To Qatar After Fifth Hostage-Prisoner Swap – BBC
- Israeli Army Withdraws From Gaza’s Key Netzarim Corridor – France 24
- Three Hostages And Over 100 Prisoners Released In Latest Ceasefire Deal – Financial Times
- Rubio To Visit Middle East After Trump Proposal For US To Take Over Gaza - Reuters
- Five Freed Hostages Return Home To Thailand - France 24
- Syria’s Dire Economic Woes Threaten To Undermine Its New Government – Washington Post
- Israel Orders Army To Prepare For 'Voluntary Departure' Of Gazans After Trump Unveils Plan - Reuters
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Donald Trump Shares Update on Putin Phone Conversation - Newsweek
- ‘We’re Still There’: Ukraine Marks The 6-Month Anniversary Of Its Kursk Incursion - Politico
- Zelenskiy Says 'Let's Do A Deal', Offering Trump Mineral Partnership, Seeking Security – Reuters
- HIMARS Strike 'Eliminated' Entire Russian Command Post in Ukraine: Video - Newsweek
- Russian Troops In Kursk Stood Down To Rest. That’s The Moment Ukrainian Troops Chose To Counterattack. - Forbes
- US Can Ramp Up Sanctions On Putin, Trump’s Ukraine-Russia Envoy Says - Politico
- Ukraine Sees Marked Improvement In Accuracy Of Russia's North Korean Missiles - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Canada Willing to Join US ‘Iron Dome’ Missile Shield: Minister – Defense Post
- Trump’s Foreign Aid Freeze Sparks Mayhem Around The World - Reuters
- EU Pumps Over $1 Billion Into Next-Gen Military Innovations – Defense Spot
- Australia, South Korea Among Asian Countries Cracking Down On DeepSeek – Nikkei Asia
- Cooling La Nina Fails To Prevent January Heat Record - AP
- Countries Vow 'Unwavering' Support For ICC, As Trump Hits It With Sanctions - Reuters
- Hundreds Of Thousands Protest Far Right In Germany – France 24
- We Asked DeepSeek About Geopolitics. It Gave Us Beijing Talking Points. - Politico
- Ecuador's Trump? Daniel Noboa's Rise Could Reshape Latin American Politics - Newsweek
Policy and Politics
Hochul’s Executive Budget Includes $165 Million To Pay The Interest On New York’s Outstanding Unemployment Insurance (UI) Debt
Governor Hochul fiscal year 2026 executive budget proposal last month, with total spending reaching $252 billion. The largest drivers of state spending are education and healthcare, primarily the state’s Medicaid program. New York State tax receipts came in higher than originally projected due to revenue from personal income taxes fueled by Wall Street’s robust performance. However, the state has estimated budget gaps of $6.5 billion in 2027, $9.8 billion in 2028 and $11 billion in 2029 under the Governor’s current spending plan.
The budget includes $165 million to pay the interest on New York’s outstanding Unemployment Insurance (UI) debt. NY Employers are all too familiar with the interest assessment surcharge (IAS) they receive each summer since 2021. Addressing New York’s UI debt and resulting higher taxes and fees has been a top priority for NFIB since 2021. This is a step in the right direction for the state to begin providing relief to small businesses; however, business groups like the Council of Industry and NFIB aregue New York needs to pay off the Unemployment Insurance debt, as well.
22 States Sue to Block New York Law Targeting Fossil Fuel Companies
New York's law to generate funds for countering climate change is facing a legal challenge from 22 state attorneys general. The Climate Change Superfund Act was signed into law at the end of last year and would force polluters to pay into a fund to generate $75 billion over the next 25 years. The lawsuit argues New York can't fine companies legally extracting fossil fuels, especially when done outside of the state. State Sen. Liz Krueger, the law’s lead legislative architect, told Spectrum News 1 in an interview that she was fully prepared for the law to face lawsuits, and it was designed to avoid legal challenges based around arguments related to the federal Clean Air Act.
Upstate United echoed some sentiments from the lawsuit. "We have said all along that The Act is arbitrary in who it targets and won’t hold the world’s largest producers, like China, accountable. While there are serious questions about whether New York has the legal right to place tariffs on out-of-state producers, there is also the commonsense question of whether New York should penalize traditional energy companies for supplying resources that everyday New Yorkers depend on," said Executive Director Justin Wilcox. "The irony should not be lost on anyone, as New York is purchasing fossil fuels for snowplows and to heat state buildings at this very moment."
Read More at NY State of Politics
Pattern For Progress: Median Price of a Home Surpasses $300,000 In All Hudson Valley Counties
Pattern's Center for Housing Solutions last week released its 2024 Hudson Valley Regional Housing Market Report. The report examines a number of trends within the regional housing market, and its constituent counties, including median sale prices, total volume of sales, total inventory on the market, and more. Here are some key takeaways from the report. Among the findings:
- The annual median price of a home in all nine counties surpassed $300,000 for the first time ever.
- The median price of a home in every county except Greene and Sullivan is now over $400,000.
- The median price in Ulster County surpassed Orange County for the first time ever.
- Westchester County became the first to see its median price exceed $700,000.
- Prices have continued to rise sharply in the post-pandemic housing market. Seven of the nine counties saw their median home prices increase by more than 9% during 2024.
Read more at Pattern for Progress
Trump’s First 100 Days
- N.Y. Democrats Introduce Bill Allowing Hochul To Delay Special Election – NY State Of Politics
- Marcus Molinaro Nominated To Be Next Federal Transportation Administration Head – Mass Transit
- Trump Says Nippon Will Drop $15 Billion Bid For U.S. Steel — But ‘Heavily’ Invest In It - Forbes
- Trump Might Be Stuck With Biden’s Funding Priorities For Longer Than GOP Hoped – The Hill
- Judge Halts Access to Treasury Payment Systems by Elon Musk’s Team - NYT
- Japan’s Ishiba Shows How to Work With Trump in First Summit - Bloomberg
- Trump to Place at Least 100 EPA Environmental-Justice Workers on Leave - WSJ
- Defense CEOs Signal Support For DOGE - Quartz
- Vought Moves To Defang CFPB, Telling Staff To Halt All Supervision And Says He Won’t Ask For Funding - WSJ
- ‘Read Only’ Judge Approves Limits on Sharing Treasury Data After Musk Allies Move In - WSJ
- New York’s Fight Over Whether To Aid ICE Heats Up In Albany – Gothamist
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Confirmations - NYT
Health and Wellness
Booze or Weed: What’s Worse for Your Health?
A renewed focus on alcohol’s health effects has rekindled a common debate: Is alcohol or marijuana worse for you? Sorry, folks, but the short answer is that both can be bad. “The reality is, if you’re really worried about your health, you wouldn’t use either of them,” says Ryan Vandrey, a professor at Johns Hopkins University who helps run the Cannabis Science Lab. The longer answer: The question is complicated by the fact that alcohol has been widely studied for decades, while research into cannabis, particularly in edible form, is still catching up.
There are certain negative effects that both substances share: They impair short- and long-term cognitive functioning. This impairs judgment, attention span and coordination, raising the risk of vehicle accidents, falls and other injuries. Both can also become addictive and can have significant mental-health consequences, particularly when overused. Some people say THC—the psychoactive compound in cannabis that gets you high—doesn’t disrupt sleep the way alcohol does or result in a hangover. But doctors say it can leave some people groggy the next day. Cannabis may be lower in calories than alcohol but both substances can have the net effect of causing people to eat more, the so-called munchies.
Industry News
‘Positive Demand Signals Developing:’ What Data and Executives Are Telling Us About the Industrial Sector
Three’s a trend, yes? If that maxim still holds, 2025 looks set to deliver good things for many U.S. industrial companies. Last week’s headline Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI reading crossed into expansion territory for the first time since late 2022, a noteworthy development in its own right. Also worth calling out: The new orders element of the Index rose for the third consecutive month after it had retreated for seven straight months, suggesting that many manufacturers are coming off trough levels of activity.
Commentary from several executive teams this earnings reporting season backs that up. There’s a growing—although not universal—sense that activity is improving and that companies are making growth and investment decisions that look through the noise around changes in the United States’ tax and/or tariff regimes. Another source of hope for the factory sector is the latest quarterly CFO Survey from Grant Thornton, 68% of respondents said they are optimistic about the economy—that indicator’s highest reading since the fall of 2021. On top of that, 45% are planning to add to or accelerate growth investments versus just 15% who say they are holding off.
US Consumer Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low, Inflation Expectations Spike
The preliminary February sentiment index slid 3.3 points to 67.8, according to the University of Michigan. The latest reading trailed all forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.3% over the next year, up a full percentage point from the prior month, the data released Friday showed. And they saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years, up slightly from the previous month. The decline in overall sentiment occurred across all political affiliations.
- The survey showed a 12 percentage point decline in buying conditions for big-ticket items from a month earlier.
- The current conditions gauge decreased to a three-month low of 68.7 from 74,
- The expectations index dropped to 67.3 - the weakest since November 2023.
- Consumers’ expectations for their financial situation retreated in February to the lowest level since October 2023. A measure of the year-ahead outlook for the economy also fell.
Honeywell To Split Into Three Companies
Honeywell International HON -0.54%decrease; red down pointing triangle is carving itself up into three independent companies, marking the end of an era for one of America’s last big industrial conglomerates. Honeywell announced Thursday plans to separate its aerospace division from its automation business and move ahead with plans to spin off its advanced-materials arm. The moves are the culmination of a portfolio review that Honeywell’s board and Chief Executive Officer Vimal Kapur launched roughly one year ago.
Honeywell has been under added pressure to split from the activist investor Elliott Investment Management. In calling for the breakup late last year, Elliott pointed to the runaway success of General Electric since it completed a yearslong dismantling of itself in 2024. GE’s aerospace, energy and healthcare units are now stand-alone businesses that, together, have a market value nearly four-times bigger than GE had when the trio made up a single company in 2022. The aerospace unit alone has a value of around $215 billion, which is more than double that of prebreakup GE.
GlobalFoundries Names New CEO Amid Leadership Changes
GlobalFoundries named COO Tim Breen as its next CEO, the semiconductor manufacturer announced Wednesday. Breen will succeed President and CEO Thomas Caulfield, who has been in the role since 2018. Caulfield will take over the board of directors chairman position from Ahmed Yahia, who is stepping down after serving as the board’s head since 2013. Chief Business Officer Niels Anderskouv will succeed Breen as COO and president. The executive changes will take effect April 28.
Breen has been with GlobalFoundries since 2018 and has held various roles involving strategy, transformation and advisor to the CEO. He was appointed COO in 2023 and managed the chipmaker’s global operations, including its manufacturing, quality, supply chain and IT teams. GlobalFoundries has been growing its manufacturing footprint in the U.S., especially after the Biden-Harris administration finalized the company’s $1.5 billion CHIPS and Science Act funding award in November 2024. The money will help triple the existing capacity of its Malta, New York, campus over the next 10 years.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Nissan, Honda Merger Talks Still On — For Now, Foxconn Lurks in the Wings
While news media reports point to a potential end of merger talks between Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Corp., discussions between the two automakers continue, Marcos Frommer, a spokesperson for American Honda Motor Co. told Automotive Dive in an email on Wednesday. “We are still in discussions, and we’ll provide more details at the appropriate time,” Frommer said. Nissan in an emailed statement also confirmed that discussions were ongoing, but indicated the automakers hope to make a final decision by mid-February.
Honda’s and Nissan’s comments are in response to a Nikkei Asia news report that Nissan was preparing to suspend the merger discussions. The automakers have been exploring a merger since December that would form the world’s third largest vehicle manufacturer. The automakers in December projected their combined operations would have annual sales revenues exceeding 30 trillion yen ($192 billion as of Dec. 23) with operating profits of more than 3 trillion yen. With the $60 billion merger in question, Nissan is looking for other options to stay competitive. Reuters reports that the automaker is open to working with technology companies, with Foxconn emerging as a serious contender.
Mondelēz, Hershey Pressured By A Persistently High Cocoa Prices
Mondelēz International and Hershey warned that stubbornly high cocoa prices are expected to weigh on their businesses throughout 2025. Dirk Van de Put, Mondelēz CEO, said in a statement that the Oreo and Toblerone maker is focused on navigating “unprecedented cocoa cost inflation.” The snacking giant estimated higher cocoa prices and inflation would lower its adjusted earnings per share in 2025 by approximately 10%. Van de Put left on the table the possibility that Mondelēz would need to raise prices later this year, or into 2026, if cocoa costs remain elevated. Still, he told investors most consumers haven’t lost their appetite for chocolate and it remains one of the “indulgences they can’t live without.
Despite a recent slide, cocoa prices have more than doubled since the end of 2023, according to Bloomberg. Supply has been squeezed due to weather, diseases and robust consumer demand. Hershey CEO Michele Buck told analysts the company is optimistic about the cocoa crop, with nearly half of its production today coming from areas outside of Ivory Coast and Ghana. Hershey also has made investments in West Africa and diversified its supply sources. “At the same time, we know that fundamentals and market price aren’t exactly aligned,” Buck observed. The high price of cocoa also has increased demand globally for cocoa alternatives, with some switching to other options. “We do that where possible, but we’re pretty precious about the brands and what they stand for with consumers,” the CEO said.
Read More at Manufacturing Dive
Embraer Books $7B Order from Flexjet
Brazilian aircraft builder Embraer S.A. will supply more than 200 jets to Flexjet under a $7-billion contract that the supplier reported is the largest ever placed by the Florida-based, fractional-ownership aviation service. The agreement from Embraer Executive Jets represents a firm order for 182 Embraer Praetor 600, Praetor 500, and Phenom 300E aircraft, and options for up to 30 more, plus enhanced jet services and support.
Neither the manufacturer nor its customer indicated the delivery schedule for the new aircraft. The new booking also represents the largest firm order ever for Embraer Executive Jets. The jet-builder offers a range of private aircraft for seven to nine passengers, and ranges from 3,300 to 4,624 miles.
Read more at American Machinist
Ford’s Farley: ‘We Can’t Just Cherry-Pick’ With Tariffs
President and CEO Jim Farley Feb. 5. called for a far more comprehensive approach to tariffs as it relates to the automotive sector. “What doesn’t make sense to me is why are we having this conversation while Hyundai Kia is importing 600,000 units into the U.S. with no incremental tariff and why is Toyota able to import half a million vehicles in the U.S. with no incremental tariffs,” Farley said on a conference call discussing Ford’s fourth-quarter results. “We can’t just cherry-pick one place or the other because this is a bonanza for our import competitors.”
Speaking to analysts Farley pointed out that Ford makes more than 80% of its vehicles, all of its transmissions and more than half of its engines in the United States. The company’s domestic footprint, he added, is running “flat out already” and a prolonged trade war would wipe out billions of profits at auto makers and call for “some major strategy shifts” to Ford’s production footprint. Farley’s tariffs comments came after Ford reported a fourth-quarter net profit of about $1.8 billion on sales of $48.2 billion. (A year prior, those numbers were a loss of $500 million and $46.0 billion, respectively.) The company delivered nearly 1.19 million vehicles during the quarter, an increase of 3% from late 2023.
Workplace Shooting at KDC One Ohio Warehouse Kills 2, Wounds 4; Suspect In Custody
An employee of a warehouse in a Columbus, Ohio, suburb who police say shot one co-worker to death and wounded five others late Tuesday night has been taken into custody. Officials in New Albany, Ohio, said in a statement Wednesday that Bruce Reginald Foster III was taken into custody when police executed a search warrant at a Columbus home. No other details were immediately released. KDC One, a cosmetics company, has a facility in Port Jervis, Orange County.
Police Chief Greg Jones told reporters in a news conference Wednesday morning that authorities “don't have a clear motive. We're learning more about him and some of his thoughts," Evacuating people didn't know anything about him. No idea, no fight...I think we're almost there, but we don't have one yet." Jones said investigators used a drone and K9s in their search effort. He said there was a lot of machinery inside, and it was "very loud," and "there were a lot of nooks and crannies." It took "hours to clear the building," he said.