Member Briefing February 5, 2025
JOLTS: Job Openings Decline Sharply In December To 7.6 Million, Below Forecast
Job openings slid in December while hiring, voluntary quits and layoffs held steady, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Available positions tumbled to 7.6 million, the lowest since September, and below the Dow Jones estimate for 8 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The decline left the ratio of open jobs to available workers at 1.1 to 1.
Healthcare and social assistance vacancies fell by 180,000, while there were 136,000 fewer open positions in the finance and insurance industry. But the arts, entertainment and recreation category had 65,000 more unfilled positions. Businesses with 10 to 49 employees had the biggest drop in vacancies, followed by enterprises with 50 to 249 workers. The job openings rate dropped to 4.5% from 4.9% in November. Layoffs fell 29,000 to 1.771 million amid increases in transportation, warehousing and utilities as well as mining and logging, which were more than offset by a decrease in professional and business services. There were also fewer leisure and hospitality layoffs. Hires nudged up to 5.46 million and quits also saw a small gain to near 3.2 million. Total separations also moved little, at 5.27 million.
China Launches Limited Tariffs After Trump Imposes Sweeping New Levies
China on Tuesday imposed targeted tariffs on American imports and put several U.S. companies, including Google, on notice for possible sanctions, in a measured response to the sweeping duties on Chinese imports imposed by President Donald Trump. Beijing's limited counter to Trump's imposition of a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports underscored the attempt by Chinese policymakers to engage Trump in talks that could avert an outright trade war between the world's two largest economies.
Capital Economics, a U.K.-based research firm, estimated that China's additional tariffs would apply to about $20 billion of annual imports, compared with the $450 billion worth of Chinese goods subject to the Trump tariff. China's new measures, announced as the Trump tariff took effect, include a A 15% levy on U.S. coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and a small number of trucks as well as big-engine sedans shipped to China from the United States. China also said it was starting an anti-monopoly investigation into Alphabet Inc's Google and it put both PVH Corp the holding company for brands including Calvin Klein, and U.S. biotechnology company Illumina on a list for potential sanctions.
Commerce Dept: U.S. Factory Orders Decline Again In December
New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods dropped in December, pulled down by a decline in bookings for civilian aircraft, but demand elsewhere was marginally firm. Factory orders tumbled 0.9% after a revised 0.8% decline in November, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would fall 0.7% after a previously reported 0.4% drop in November. Factory orders were unchanged on a year-on-year basis in December. Civilian aircraft orders decreased 45.7% in December, contributing to the 7.4% decline in orders for transportation equipment.
Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.3%. The government also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, gained 0.4% in December. Shipments of core capital goods advanced 0.5%. Nondefense capital goods orders decreased 7.9%, rather than 7.8%. Shipments of those goods increased 3.4%. Business spending on equipment contracted in the fourth quarter after double-digit growth in the July-September quarter, weighed down by aircraft deliveries.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Trump To Reimpose 'Maximum Pressure' On Iran, Aims To Drive Oil Exports To Zero - Reuters
- Netanyahu Seeks Strong Backing From Trump, As First Foreign Leader To Visit - BBC
- Trump Warns ‘No Guarantees’ Fragile Gaza Truce Will Hold As Netanyahu Heads To DC For Talks - AP
- Israeli Military Operation Turns Jenin Refugee Camp Into 'Ghost Town' - Reuters
- Iran’s Water Crisis Is Worsening - VOA
- Syria's Sharaa Aims To Restore US Ties, No Contacts Yet With Trump Administration - VOA
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Give Ukraine Nuclear Weapons, Says Zelenskyy - Politico
- Ukraine Shows Capture of North Korean Soldier as Kim Pulls Troops - Newsweek
- EU-Funded Gas Turns Lights Back On In Moldova Separatist Region - Reuters
- Trump Says He Wants Ukraine To Supply US With Rare Earths - Reuters
- Russia To Trump: Back Off Ukraine’s Rare Earths - Politico
- Von Der Leyen Signals ‘Extraordinary’ Measure To Boost EU Defense Spending - Politico
- Amid Trump’s Call For Peace In Ukraine, Putin Falsely Frames Talks With Zelenskyy As ‘Illegitimate’ - BBC
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- EU Wants Early US Talks To Avert Trump Tariffs - Reuters
- Gangs Attack A Neighborhood In Haiti That’s Home To The Country’s Elite - AP
- Sweden School Campus Shooting: 'Around 10 Killed'—Police - Newsweek
- EU Mulls Fiscal Rule Flexibility For Defense Spending – EU Observer
- Uganda Begins Ebola Vaccine Trial After New Outbreak - BBC
- Has Brexit Finally Paid Off? What Trump’s Tariff Reprieve Means For Starmer - Politico
- Former NATO Chief Stoltenberg To Become Norway’s Finance Minister After Oslo Government Collapse - CNBC
- U.S. Quietly Arms Japan – A Key Treaty Ally Near China - Newsweek
- M23 Declares Ceasefire In DRC As Regional Leaders Try To Forge Peace - VOA
- Sweden Says Latest Baltic Sea Cable Cut Was Not Sabotage - Politico
Policy and Politics
House Republicans Are Split on How Deeply to Cut Federal Spending
House Republicans are sharply divided over how much government spending they should cut, and the dispute is slowing their plans to reduce taxes and increase border enforcement. On one side: Conservatives who see a rare chance to use full Republican government control to scale back programs such as Medicaid, the health-insurance program covering more than 70 million people. At times, they have been seeking trillions of dollars in spending cuts over the next decade and say they want Republicans’ major fiscal legislation to reduce budget deficits.
On the other side: Moderates who are wary about blowback from states, hospitals and the GOP’s emerging working-class base. They are looking for smaller minimum spending cuts attached to the “one big beautiful bill” that President Trump wants to extend expiring tax cuts, pay for his immigration restrictions and boost the military. Party leaders are stuck in the middle. Because of the party’s tiny House majority, they must keep virtually all House Republicans together on a budget blueprint and a subsequent detailed bill. One early proposal circulating among lawmakers and lobbyists lays out about $300 billion in spending cuts and a roughly equal amount in spending increases. Under that approach, Trump’s 2017 tax cuts—$4 trillion or more over a decade—could potentially be extended without accompanying spending cuts.
Empire Center/Morning Consult Poll: Most New Yorkers Say They Aren’t Getting Money’s Worth From Taxes
New Yorkers by a margin of more than two-to-one said they aren’t getting their money’s worth from taxes they pay in the state, according to recent polling by the Empire Center for Public Policy in Albany. Asked “do you feel you are getting your money’s worth for the taxes you pay in New York,” a large majority (59 percent) said no, compared with 24 percent for yes. Eighteen percent were undecided. The survey of 1,021 New York registered voters (margin of error: 3 percent) was conducted by Morning Consult in mid-December. Other notable findings included:
- Nearly half of public school parents (45 percent) said they had encountered a teacher at their child’s current school who “should have been dismissed for poor performance or misconduct.”
- A plurality of all New Yorkers (41 percent) said the governor should be allowed to hire and fire the education commissioner, who is appointed by the Board of Regents, whose members are selected by the state Legislature.
- Told “if money wasn’t an issue” with how their child gets their education, and given a list of choices, only 30 percent of public school parents said they would send their children to “your neighborhood public school.” The other options selected were:
- Most New Yorkers (59 percent) said the state’s greenhouse gas-reduction strategies should not increase the price of energy, even if that slows progress toward reducing emissions. The remaining voters were evenly split between Albany doing “everything it can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions faster, even if it means higher energy prices for customers” and doing “everything it can to reduce the price of energy” even if it means higher greenhouse gas emissions (20 percent each).
Read More at The Empire Center
Skoufis, Jacobson Propose Legislation To Withdraw Orange County From MTA
State Senator James Skoufis (D-Cornwall) has introduced legislation to remove Orange County from the MTA which is being supported by the county’s entire state legislative delegation. The bill will be carried in the other house by Assemblyman Jonathan Jacobson (D-Newburgh). Representatives for the MTA could not be immediately reached for comment on Monday night. “Orange County residents have contributed millions of dollars to the MTA with little to show for their investment,” Jacobson added. “The MTA has not kept its end of the bargain by failing to expand service and adequately maintain its infrastructure in Orange County. It is time to leave the MTA. Orange County can do better.”
According to Skoufis, withdrawing from the MTA would generate significant savings for taxpayers: He pointed out that the MTA “hits” Orange County via a payroll tax, gas tax, mortgage recording tax, sales tax, corporate tax surcharge, vehicle registration fee, and drivers license fee, among other sources of revenue. After withdrawing from the MTA, Skoufis said that taxpayers would no longer be subjected to these taxes and fees. As of last month, despite no viable rail alternative, Orange County drivers must now also pay a $9 congestion pricing toll to enter midtown and lower Manhattan.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Inside the Chaotic Run-Up to Trump’s Tariff U-Turn – WSJ
- Jeffries Works With N.Y. Democrats to Delay Special Election to Weaken G.O.P. Control of the House - NYT
- N.Y. Democrats 'Pause' Introduction Of Special Election Bill Amid Pushback – NY State Of Politics
- Trump Furthers NLRB Shakeup By Firing Acting NLRB General Counsel Jessica Rutter – Law360
- RFK Jr. Clears Committee Vote, Putting Him on Track to Become Health Secretary - WSJ
- USAID Workers Call for End of Furlough—'Devastating for My Family' - Newsweek
- Migrant Flight Heads To Guantanamo Bay As Legal Questions Swirl Around Trump Plans - CNN
- Trump Hints at Curbs on Musk’s Powers After Billionaire Shakes Up Washington - WSJ
- More Than 20,000 US Government Employees Willing To Quit, US Official Says - Reuters
- Trump Administration Ends Temporary Deportation Protection For 350,000 Venezuelans - AP
- Unions Sue To Stop Elon Musk’s DOGE From Accessing Treasury Department Data – Forbes
Health and Wellness
The Aspirin Mistake: 29 Million Take It Daily, Not Realizing Costs May Outweigh Benefits
The decades-old medical advice that an aspirin a day keeps a heart attack away is outdated. Yet about half of U.S. adults are unaware that the consensus has changed for healthy older people not at increased risk of heart disease, a new survey says, a misconception that could be putting them in danger. Because aspirin is a blood thinner, it can help prevent clogged arteries, thereby lowering the risk of stroke or heart attack. However, the over-the-counter medication comes with an increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding and may not be the safest prevention strategy for everyone. In 2019, the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology announced these new guidelines surrounding daily low-dose aspirin (75–100 mg) and cardiovascular disease prevention:
Adults 71+: Not recommended.
All adults at increased risk of bleeding: Not recommended.
Adults 40–70 at higher risk of heart disease but not bleeding: May be considered.
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force took things a step further in 2022, discouraging all adults 60 and older from using aspirin as the primary prevention of heart disease.
Industry News
Trump’s Tariffs Yield Mixed Reactions From Industry Leaders
Manufacturing leaders are mixed on President Donald Trump’s decision over the weekend to impose tariffs on three of the nation’s prominent trading partners: Mexico, Canada and China. While some groups have expressed support for the administration’s bold actions, others have urged the president to take a more thoughtful approach as manufacturers take on more costs. The tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada were initially set to begin Feb. 4 but have been pushed to March. Trump’s executive orders would have placed 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and a lower 10% tariff on Canada’s energy resources.
However, Trump’s executive orders also tacked an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, which began Feb. 4. In response to U.S. demands, China retaliated with a 15% tariff imposed on coal and liquefied natural gas. China also imposed a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and some cars, set to begin Feb. 10. Here is what industry leaders have said about Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Philadelphia Looks To Dethrone Kansas City
The Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl this Sunday. You aren't experiencing déjà vu; the two teams last met in the league championship game two years ago in 2023. The Eagles will seek to avenge the loss with a new offensive weapon and a revamped defense loaded with young talent. The Philadelphia economy has also been flying high as of late, with the metro economy boasting low unemployment and solid job growth.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are aiming for their third straight championship, which would make them the first NFL team to achieve such a feat. The Chiefs franchise turnaround over the past decade echoes an economic renaissance in the Kansas City economy, which is now outperforming many of its Midwestern peers. The Chiefs enter the contest as slight favorites, though they are arguably up against their toughest competition of the year. The Eagles underperformed to start the season, but now appear to be hitting their stride at exactly the right moment. Although favored, Kansas City will need to continue to play mistake-free football and put on a defensive display for the ages in order to three-peat, a feat that other dynasties such as the 1970s Steelers, 1990s Cowboys and 2000s Patriots failed to accomplish.
Read more at Wells Fargo Economics
Palantir Beats Expectations, Outlook Fueled By ‘Untamed’ AI Demand
Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR). shares jumped Tuesday after giving a full-year revenue forecast that exceeded analysts’ estimates, thanks to what Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp described as “untamed organic growth” in demand for its artificial intelligence software. Sales will be about $3.75 billion in 2025, the Denver-based company said Monday in a statement. Adjusted operating income will be about $1.56 billion. Analysts, on average, projected revenue of $3.54 billion and operating profit of $1.37 billion.
Best known for its national security work, and more recently its AI platform, the company’s technology is now used across all US military branches, and by American allies in Ukraine and Israel. Palantir also recently expanded one of its deals with the US Army to as much as $619 million through 2028, and extended its AI work with the US Special Operations Command. Fourth-quarter revenue jumped 36% to $827.5 million, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $775.9 million. Profit, excluding some items, was 14 cents a share. Analysts, on average, estimated 11 cents.
Pfizer Tops Earnings Estimates As Covid Product Sales Beat Expectations And Cost Cuts Pay Off
Pfizer on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates as sales of the company’s Covid products topped expectations and its broad cost-cutting efforts took hold. Earnings per share were 63 cents adjusted vs. 46 cents expected and Revenue was: $17.76 billion vs. $17.36 billion expected. The company booked fourth-quarter net income of $410 million, or 7 cents per share. That compares with a net loss of $3.37 billion, or a loss of 60 cents per share, during the same period a year ago.
The results cap off a critical year for Pfizer, which has been pursuing broad cost cuts as it recovers from the rapid decline of its Covid business and stock price over the last two years. The company said it is on track to deliver overall net cost savings of roughly $4.5 billion by the end of 2025 from its cost-cutting program. The company reiterated the full-year 2025 outlook it provided in December, forecasting sales of $61 billion to $64 billion, with a similar performance from its Covid products as seen in 2024. Pfizer noted that changes to the Medicare program resulting from the Inflation Reduction Act will hurt sales by $1 billion.
PepsiCo Earnings Beat Estimates, But Demand For Drinks And Snacks Drops In North America
PepsiCo reported mixed quarterly results on Tuesday as demand for its snacks and drinks fell in North America for the fifth straight quarter. Earnings per share were $1.96 adjusted vs. $1.94 expected and revenue was $27.78 billion vs. $27.89 billion expected. Pepsi posted fourth-quarter net income attributable to the company of $1.52 billion, or $1.11 per share, up from $1.3 billion, or 94 cents per share, a year earlier. Net sales dropped slightly to $27.78 billion.
Pepsi’s worldwide volume increased 1% for convenient foods and 1% for beverages. The metric strips out pricing and foreign exchange. But demand was weaker in the company’s home market, North America. Pepsi has previously said that shoppers in the U.S. have grown more cautious, snacking less and making fewer purchases at convenience stores. Frito-Lay North America’s volume fell 3% in the quarter. Consumers have been watching their grocery budgets, thanks to several years of higher food prices and interest rates. For 2025, Pepsi is projecting a low-single-digit increase in its organic revenue and a mid-single-digit rise in its core constant currency earnings per share.
Top Pentagon Contractors Poised For Gains As Trump Pushes Missile Shield Expansion
The nation’s top defense contractors are positioning themselves to capitalize on a new missile defense initiative announced by the Trump administration. Executives from Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris told Wall Street analysts last week that they are well-equipped to support the administration’s push for a “next-generation missile defense shield.” President Donald Trump’s executive order, titled “The Iron Dome for America,” directs the Department of Defense to accelerate the development and deployment of an advanced missile defense system. The order calls for a multi-layered approach capable of countering a range of threats, including ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, with a heavy reliance on space-based sensors and potentially controversial space-based interceptors.
The Pentagon’s missile defense architecture would involve multiple layers of systems. The Space Development Agency’s satellites would provide wide-area surveillance, while the Missile Defense Agency’s Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS) layer would provide more precise tracking data. A mesh network of satellites would connect these systems and relay information to decision-makers.
‘Megacasting’ to Start at Honda in Ohio
A series of six “gigacasting” presses have been installed by Honda of America at the Anna (Ohio) Engine Plant as a core manufacturing element of the EV Hub the automaker will launch later this year. Announced in late 2022, the Ohio EV Hub includes retooling and new capabilities now projected at $1 billion for the engine plant and nearby Marysville, OH, assembly plant. Honda projects it have capacity for roughly 220,000 units across all vehicle types at Marysville once the Hub is complete.
Gigcasting, or megacasting, are generic terms of high-pressure diecasting operations developed to produce large-dimension parts that allow automakers to minimize subassembly for vehicle structures, saving production time and labor costs. Honda suggested that future gigacast parts could include body frames and internal-combustion or hybrid-electric engine components. The Anna, Ohio, Engine Plant opened in 1985, and in addition to producing Honda engines it casts a range of engine components, and manufactures vehicle transmissions, camshafts, crankshafts, and CVT components. According to Honda, installing the 31-ft.-tall gigacasters required modifications to the plant, including placing pilons 80 feet below the concrete plant floor to provide a stable foundation.
Read more at Foundry Management & Technology
Lego’s Brick-Built Rose Bouquet Just Went On Sale For The First Time At Amazon
No matter the holiday or season, Lego sets are my favorite gifts to give. Just in time for Valentine’s Day next month, Amazon is offering the first chance to save on the Lego Icons Botanicals Collection Bouquet of Roses set. The perfect gift for Lego lovers and first-time builders alike, this is a rare chance to save. Just be sure to act fast, a price this good is sure to sell out.
This Lego set includes 822 pieces that assemble into a bouquet of roses. There are three different stages of flowering to mix up the building process, with four roses in full bloom, four blossoms and four buds. There’s nothing more romantic than gifting roses, and this Lego set lets you do that without also gifting the responsibility of caring for live flowers. Just bring your own vase and get building for a long-lasting floral display. The $60 retail price means this kit was just shy of making it into our favorite Valentine’s gifts under $50 list. But with today’s discount, it would surely rise to the top.