Member Briefing December 17, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Double Employment Reports Show Labor Market Still Struggling to Maintain Traction

The final jobs report released in 2025 showed the labor market still struggling to maintain its footing. Although delayed by 11 days due to the federal government shutdown, November's Employment Situation report packed a punch with the first look at the October establishment survey also released today. Nonfarm employment declined by 105K in October before rebounding by 64K in November, leaving employment 41K lower than in September. Incorporating an 11K downward revision to September's increase, the three-month average pace of job growth is now just 22K compared to 62K heading into today's report.

While stark, October's drop in employment—the largest since 2020—overstates the recent loss of momentum in hiring. Federal payroll employment plummeted 162K as workers who accepted the government's deferred resignation offer earlier in the year finally rolled off the payroll. Yet even when setting aside this special factor in October, the soft picture of job growth remains. Nonfarm payroll employment is up just 0.6% compared to last November (chart). The breadth of hiring has improved slightly in recent months, but employment gains continue to be primarily driven by healthcare & social assistance, which rose an average of 64K in October and November. More cyclically sensitive industries continue to struggle, with manufacturing, transportation, information, financial services, and leisure & hospitality all posting declines in November.

Read more at Wells Fargo

NY Fed Survey Of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey: Expectations of Receiving Job Offers Continue to Decline

The SCE Labor Market Survey is fielded every four months as a rotating module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The November survey showed that the expected likelihood of retiring later increased while the expectations of receiving a job offers continued to decline.

  • Among those who were employed four months ago, 3.7 percent transitioned into unemployment (highest since March 2024), 2.4 percent transitioned out of the labor force, and 4.4 percent moved to a new employer.
  • The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks declined to 23.8 percent in November from 25.4 percent in July.
  • The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months continued its declining trend and reached 18.3 percent.
  • The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 62 increased by 1.4 percentage points (ppts) to 50.4 percent. The likelihood of working beyond age 67 edged up by 2.1 ppts to 35.6 percent, the highest reading since March 2020.

Read more at the NY Fed

US Retail Sales Unexpectedly Unchanged In October

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat in October, though consumer spending appears to have remained on a solid footing at the start of the fourth quarter despite the rising cost of living that is forcing some households to scale back and the disruption of the government shutdown that dis. The unchanged reading in retail sales reported by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau on Tuesday followed a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, edging up 0.1% after a previously reported 0.2% rise in September.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services surged 0.8% in October after an unrevised 0.1% dip in September. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Economists still expect that consumer spending supported gross domestic product growth in the third quarter.

Read more at Reuters 

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Siena Poll: Hochul Holds 19-Point Lead Over Stefanik, 25 Over Blakeman

Governor Kathy Hochul holds double-digit leads over both Rep. Elise Stefanik (Hochul leads 49-30%, with 20% undecided) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (50-25%, 21% undecided), according to a new Siena Poll of New York State registered voters released today. In the Democratic Primary match up Hochul leads Lt. Governor Delgado 56-13%. Hochul’s 43-41% favorability rating is a little better than November’s 43-45%. Her job approval rating is also four points better than last month, 52-39%. Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado has a 17-15% favorability rating, from 20-20% last month.

  • When asked whether New York State is doing better than most other states, keeping pace, or falling behind most other states, nearly half, 45%, say New York is falling behind, while 30% say we are keeping pace and 19% say we’re doing better. A large majority of Republicans, a large plurality of independents, and even a narrow plurality of Democrats say New York is falling behind other states.
  • For only the second time this year, a narrow plurality of voters thinks New York State is on the right track, rather than headed in the wrong direction, 44-41%, up from 39-45% in November.
  • Voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, 63-31%, nearly identical to 62-30% last month.
  • Voters continue to strongly support increasing taxes on the wealthiest 5% of New Yorkers, 58-35%, from 60-32% in November. It’s strongly supported by Dems, supported by Independents, and opposed by Republicans.
  • New York’s senior Senator, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s favorability rating remains decidedly underwater, 36-49%, however, that is a significant improvement from 32-55% last month.

Read more at Siena University

House GOP Draft Health Bill Package – What’s In It?

​House Republican leaders released draft legislation Friday consisting of a package of health proposals aimed at reducing health care costs in 2026. The House Rules Committee met Tuesday afternoon to consider the bill for floor action for later this week. The 111-page bill combines a slate of measures Republicans say will address health care affordability, such as expanding access to association health plans, which allow employers across industries to buy coverage as a group and thereby trim costs. It would also require more transparency from pharmacy benefit managers and fund so-called cost-sharing reduction payments that the first Trump administration canceled in 2017.

  • The bill, starting in 2027, would reverse the cancellation of cost-sharing reduction payments to insurers that occurred in 2017. These cut some enrollees’ out-of-pocket expenses, through lower deductibles and copays.
  • The plan would impose new transparency measures on pharmacy benefit managers, the middlemen that negotiate drug costs between pharmacists and drug companies.
  • The bill would also clarify current law to stipulate that stop-loss insurance policies should not qualify as health insurance, which Republicans say would shield small businesses from catastrophic claims.
  • Expanding access to association health plans has been among Republicans’ preferred proposals. The plans allow small businesses to band together to purchase insurance, a move that helps lower costs for employers.
  • The bill left out any proposals to fund health savings accounts for ACA enrollees, an idea favored by Senate Republicans that fell short in a procedural vote on Thursday.

Read more at Roll Call

EU Scraps 2035 Ban On New Petrol And Diesel Cars To Boost Auto Industry

The European Commission is set to backtrack on the EU’s planned ban on new combustion-engine cars from 2035 by allowing continued sales of some non-electric vehicles following intense pressure from Germany, Italy and Europe’s auto sector. The EU executive appears to have yielded to the call from automakers to be allowed to keep selling plug-in hybrids and range extenders with CO2-neutral biofuel or synthetic fuel as they struggle to compete against Tesla and Chinese electric vehicles. The proposal will allow carmakers to slow the rollout of electric vehicles in Europe and aligns the region more closely with the U.S.

Under current EU rules, all new cars sold in the bloc from 2035 must have zero emissions, effectively banning sales on new gasoline and diesel cars in favor of battery-electric vehicles. But under new proposals, expected to be announced Tuesday, the zero emissions target will be lowered to 90 percent compared with 2021 levels from the proposed 100 percent. The move, which will need approval by EU governments and the European Parliament, would be the EU’s most significant climb-down from its green policies of the past five years.

Read more at Auto News

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Cigna Research Offers A $154 Billion Warning on The Loneliness Crisis

Recent research found that burnout among American employees has reached a six-year high. While unmanageable workloads and ongoing transformation are often blamed for the crisis, experts caution HR not to underestimate the impact of another ongoing phenomenon: the loneliness epidemic. Cigna research found that more than half of the U.S. workforce say they feel lonely regularly, a figure that is significantly higher for millennials and Gen Z workers. “Sadly, it’s not a question of ‘if’ employees are experiencing loneliness; more likely than not, they are,” says Maureen O’Neill, senior vice president at Consilio.

There are a number of macro factors influencing the growing loneliness epidemic, O’Neill says. Societal trends away from connection and community—plummeting participation in churches and civic organizations, for example—are diminishing the external “social touchpoints” employees can access. At the same time, employees are growing increasingly reliant on technology and social media, which have potential for driving connection but ultimately prevent people from reaching the “true depth of relationships,” O’Neill says. The strongest antidote to the loneliness epidemic is culture, O’Neill says. Healthy, inclusive cultures foster feelings of “belonging, trust, respect and psychological safety,” she says, which are foundations for meaningful connections and relationships.

Read more at HR Executive

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Trade Wars

The Factory Workers Who Build the Power Grid by Hand

In a factory not far from the North Carolina state line, Robin Cisco walks her fingers across hundreds of feet of paper-insulated copper wire. Cisco is a “winder” at Hitachi Energy’s transformer factory in southern Virginia where she twists wire by hand around a giant cylinder. The pattern will eventually create the heart of an electric transformer that takes four to six weeks to build and is the size of a small garage. Soaring demand means the wait list for the crucial equipment is yearslong. The growth of the U.S. electric grid depends on factory workers like Cisco, whose craft can take three to five years to master and can’t be fully automated.

The manual precision and specialty materials required are among many reasons that the U.S. is struggling to meet the surging electricity needs of the artificial-intelligence frenzy. Transformers are used to step up voltage from power plants to send electricity onto the grid, or to step down voltage so it can be used by cities, neighborhoods and large customers such as factories, data centers and oil-and-gas facilities. New ones are needed every time a new source of power generation or a big customer connects to the grid. They can be as large as buildings or as small as garbage cans. The ones made in South Boston can weigh up to 285,000 pounds, roughly the equivalent of 24 elephants or 65 pickup trucks.

Read more at The WSJ

Consumers Returning To ICE Vehicles, EY Global Study Suggests

Global car buyers are turning back to the internal combustion engine vehicles, as demand for electric vehicles continues to wane, and this includes data suggesting a lowering desire for hybrids. That’s the findings from of two analysts working for Ernst & Young (EY), who claim that half of global car buyers are planning to choose an ICE powered vehicles as their next purchase, a jump of 13% from 2024 data.

Range anxiety, poor charging infrastructure and geopolitical pressures are cited as causes for a growing reluctance to make the switch to EVs. The EY Mobility Consumer Index study also pointed out that while consumers have a growing appetite for connected vehicle features, higher ownership costs attributed to EVs is a concern for around 40% of car buyers.

Read more at Wards Auto

Roomba Maker iRobot Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, Seeks Acquisition By Contract Manufacturer

iRobot Corp., a maker of robotic vacuums and mops, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday in an effort to reduce its debt load and restructure to become a private company. The Massachusetts-based company notified investors that it entered into an agreement to be acquired by secured lender and primary contract manufacturer Shenzhen Picea Robotics Co. through a court-supervised process. If approved, Picea would receive all of iRobot’s equity interests under the deal’s terms, improving the financially distressed company’s balance sheet for future operations. iRobot said it expects to complete the Chapter 11 process by February 2026.

The Roomba and Braava maker is making this move following a multi-year market downturn and failed acquisition by Amazon. iRobot’s full-year revenue peaked in 2021 at nearly $1.6 billion, driven in part by pandemic-fueled demand. The company debuted its first Roomba vacuum in 2002, and has since sold millions of robots worldwide. However, sales in recent years have declined due to supply chain issues and growing competition from international companies.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

US’ New Hypersonic Missile Can Hit Targets 2,175-Mile Away In Just 20 Minutes

US Army officials have disclosed new details about America’s long-range hypersonic weapon program during a recent visit by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to Redstone Arsenal in Alabama, offering a clearer picture of the reach and intended role of the Army’s first operational hypersonic strike system. Dark Eagle is a trailer-launched, ground-based hypersonic boost-glide weapon designed to strike high-value, time-sensitive targets at extreme distances.

After launch, the missile boosts a glide vehicle to hypersonic speeds, exceeding Mach 5, before the vehicle separates and maneuvers through the atmosphere toward its target.  Its speed, maneuverability, and depressed flight profile are intended to complicate detection and interception by advanced air and missile defenses. Lt. Gen. Francisco Lozano, the Army’s director for hypersonic, directed energy, space, and rapid acquisition, told Hegseth that Dark Eagle has a range of about 3,500 kilometers, or roughly 2,175 miles.  The briefing, which C-SPAN recorded, included Lozano’s remarks that the weapon could theoretically reach mainland China if launched from Guam, Moscow from Western Europe, or Tehran from the Gulf region.

Read more at Interesting Engineering

2026 Will Be The Year of Obesity Pills From Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly

2026 is likely the year that two new oral weight loss drugs will reach patients in the U.S. For some people, pills may serve as a more convenient – and potentially in certain cases cheaper – alternative to today’s blockbuster injections. Drugmakers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have said their daily pills could help the drugs reach new patients. That could include people who are afraid of needles or patients who might benefit from the existing injections but don’t take them because they don’t view their need as severe enough.

The upcoming pills aren’t expected to be more effective than weekly injections, but health experts stress that expanding the range of treatment options could still be a major win for patients. After the injections hit nationwide supply shortages in recent years, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have already started preparing enough of their pills to meet expected demand. In the August note, Goldman analysts said they expect Eli Lilly’s pill to have a 60% share – or roughly $13.6 billion – of the daily oral segment of the market in 2030. They expect Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide to have a 21% share – or around $4 billion – of that segment. It expects the remaining 19% slice to go to other emerging pills, the analysts said.

Read more at CNBC

Tesla Stock Closes At Record As Investors Rally Around Musk’s Robotaxi Hype

What started off as a particularly rough year for Tesla investors is turning into quite the celebration. Following a 36% plunge in the first quarter, the stock’s worst period since 2022, Tesla shares have rallied all the way back, reaching an all-time closing high of $489.88, jumping 3.1% on Tuesday. They’re now up 21% for the year. The prior intraday high was $488.54, reached almost exactly a year ago, and the previous record close was $479.86.

The stock got a spark this week after CEO Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, said Tesla has been testing driverless vehicles in Austin, Texas with no occupants on board, almost six months after launching a pilot program with safety drivers. Tesla operates a Robotaxi-branded ridehailing service in Texas and California but the vehicles include drivers or human safety supervisors on board for now.

Read more at CNBC

Texas Instruments' $40B Texas Factory Begins Production

In May, Texas Instruments Inc. completed the first of four planned semiconductor plants at its 1,200-acre site off U.S. 75 in Sherman, the Dallas Business Journal previously reported. The factory is located in Sherman, a town of about 45,000 people near the Oklahoma border. Today, Wednesday, Dec. 17, the company will celebrate the grand opening of its "state-of-the-art" factory before starting production at the facility, the company said. The new facility broke ground in May 2022.

The Sherman site represents about $40 billion in investment and will create about 3,000 new TI jobs, plus an estimated thousands of indirect job growth, the company said. The factory is expected to produce tens of millions of chips daily to be used in vehicles, smartphones, data centers and everyday electronics, according to TI. The factory is expected ot have a profound impact on the region. When the facility is complete, the campus is expected to be the biggest electronics production facility in Texas and among the largest manufacturing facilities in the country.

Read more at WFAA (Texas)

Merriam-Webster Names 'Slop' As Its 2025 Word Of The Year

After yet another year of high-profile news stories and internet trends, Merriam-Webster has chosen one word to sum up 2025: “slop.” The dictionary publisher defined it as “digital content of low quality that is produced usually in quantity by means of artificial intelligence” and said it reflected the “absurd videos, off-kilter advertising images, cheesy propaganda, fake news that looks pretty real, junky AI-written books” that have invaded people's social media feeds this year. “All that stuff dumped on our screens, captured in just four letters: the English language came through again,” the company said.

Other words and phrases that stood out for Merriam-Webster's editors were: “gerrymander,” “touch grass,” “performative,” “tariff,” “six seven” and “conclave.” The company also gave a shoutout to Lake Char­gog­ga­gogg­man­chaug­ga­gogg­chau­bu­na­gun­ga­maugg, an alternative name for Webster Lake in Massachusetts, which began appearing in the most-searched list of words on merriam-webster.com thanks to its appearance in the online gaming world Roblox.

Read more at NBC

Quote of the Day

“Science appears calm and triumphant when it is completed; but science in the process of being done is only contradiction and torment, hope and disappointment."

Pierre Paul Émile Roux - French Physician, Founder of Immunology and developer of the first effective treatment for diphtheria. He was born on this day in 1853.

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