Member Briefing January 8, 2025
JOLTS: Job Openings Improve in November, Turnover Still Muted
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 8.1 million jobs open at the end of November, an increase from the revised 7.84 million seen in October, and the highest level of job openings since May 2023. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.27 million hires were made during the month, down from the 5.39 million made during October. The hiring rate fell to 3.3% from the 3.4% seen in October.
Turnover in the jobs market remains muted. The quit rate fell back to its current cycle low of 1.9% in November, which is around the lowest rate since early 2016. The share of consumers viewing jobs as plentiful has edged up in recent months, which gives some reason for optimism that the downward trend may soon reverse. However, the overall subdued rate of voluntary departures is likely to restrain wage gains in the near term as employers are not having to battle as fiercely to retain existing employees. Employers remain generally reluctant to let go of existing workers. The layoff rate was unchanged at 1.1% in November, keeping it below its pre-pandemic level. However, firms are still reticent to bring on new workers, with the hiring rate falling back to 3.3% to remain near its lowest level in more than a decade (again excluding the spring of 2020).
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens In November
The U.S. trade deficit widened in November, likely as businesses front-loaded imports amid worries about President-elect Donald Trump's threats to raise tariffs on foreign goods. Growth in imports more than offset a surge in exports to a record high. The trade gap increased 6.2% to $78.2 billion from a revised $73.6 billion in October, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Tuesday.
Imports rose 3.4% to $351.6 billion, with goods imports surging 4.3% to $280.9 billion. Exports advanced 2.7% to $273.4 billion, an all-time high. Goods exports increased 3.6% to $177.6 billion. Trade has subtracted from GDP for three straight quarters. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently forecasting gross domestic product rising at a 2.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. The economy grew at a 3.1% pace in the July-September quarter.
US Service Sector Growth Picks Up; Input Prices Gauge Highest In Nearly Two Years
U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December, but a surge in a measure of prices paid for inputs to near a two-year high pointed to elevated inflation. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 54.1 last month from 52.1 in November amid strong demand. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI rising to 53.3.
The ISM survey's new orders measure increased to 54.2 last month from 53.7 in November. Its business activity index shot up to 58.2 from 53.7 in the prior month. With demand rising, so did the cost of inputs. The survey's prices paid measure for services inputs jumped to 64.4, the highest reading since February 2023, from 58.2 in November. The survey's measure of services employment was little changed at 51.4 in December though that number has not been a good predictor of services payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Macron Warns Iran’s Nuclear Program Close to Point of No Return – BBC
- Israel Awaits ‘Status Of Hostages’ In Hamas Truce Offer – France 24
- Turkey-Backed Syria May Be Bigger Threat Than Iran, Says Israeli Government Panel – Middle East Eye
- Inside Bashar Assad’s Detention Centers, Where ‘Death Was The Least Bad Thing’ - AP
- West Bank Bus Ambush Leaves 3 Israelis Dead - Newsweek
- What A Non-Handshake Tells Us About Syria’s New Ruler - Politico
- Hamas Stands By Demand For End To Gaza War Under Hostage Deal, As Trump Deadline Approaches - Reuters
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Azerbaijan’s Leader Accuses Russia Of Passenger Jet Crash ‘Cover Up’ In Blistering New Attack On Neighbor – CNN
- Russia Claims Capture Of Ukraine's Kurakhove As Battle Rages In Kursk - Reuters
- Russia's Losses in Ukraine Pass Grim Milestone - Newsweek
- Russia's Orthodox Patriarch, Marking Christmas, Says West Trying To Smother Russia - Reuters
- EU To Pro-Russian Moldovan Separatists: Just Take The Gas - Politico
- Russia Claims Capture Of Ukraine's Kurakhove As Battle Rages In Kursk - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Jean-Marie Le Pen, Far-Right French Firebrand Politician, Dies at 96 - WSJ
- The UN Says More Than 5,600 People Were Killed In Haiti Last Year As Gangs Rampage - AP
- Powerful Earthquake Kills Scores In Tibet – France 24
- From Low Blows To Obama ‘Bromance’: 11 Moments In Political Life Of Justin Trudeau - Politico
- The Populist Vying to Lead Canada and End a Decade of Liberalism - WSJ
- North Korea Releases Video of Hypersonic Missile Launch - Newsweek
- France Marks 10 Years Since The Charlie Hebdo Attacks – France 24
- U.S. in Talks to Swap Detained Americans in Afghanistan for Guantanamo Prisoner - WSJ
- China Approves The World’s Most Expensive Infrastructure Project – The Economist
- South Korea's Impeached Leader Yoon Hunkers Down In Seoul's 'Beverly Hills' - Reuters
Policy and Politics
Democrats See Potential For Debt Limit Agreement With President-Elect That Permanently Defuses Borrowing-Limit Threat
The U.S. government is hitting the debt limit, triggering a now-familiar cycle of brinkmanship, bipartisan negotiation and possible crisis. This round, however, has a few new twists. Republicans have the power to raise the debt ceiling by themselves, and they will try to do that in their tax, border, energy and spending-cuts legislation that would wrap many of President-elect Donald Trump’s priorities into one bill. That would be the first one-party debt-limit increase since 2010.
If Republicans’ efforts collapse, however, they will need to turn to Democrats to avert a potential government default around the middle of the year, possibly setting the stage for more deadline drama. While many Democrats have made clear they won’t just sign off on a GOP plan that kicks the debt ceiling to the next Congress or next president, they have signaled support for effectively getting rid of the debt-ceiling threat altogether. Trump’s recent call for a long-term or permanent debt-ceiling increase—which fell short among Republicans—could become the basis for an agreement with Democrats, said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D., Pa.). Boyle said he is open to working with Trump on a bill that would permanently alter the debt limit.
When Is Jimmy Carter's Funeral? See Full Schedule As Remains Are Transported To DC This Week
Funeral services honoring former President Jimmy Carter started on Saturday morning in Carter’s home state of Georgia, leading up to his official state funeral on Jan. 9 at the Washington National Cathedral in Washington, D.C. After Carter's death on Dec. 29, President Joe Biden declared Jan. 9 as a national day of mourning, closing all executive departments and agencies of the federal government on the same day. Biden also ordered U.S. flags to fly at half-staff for 30 days.
Here is the full list of events scheduled to take place from Jan. 7-9, according to a news release from the Joint Task Force-National Capital Region and the U.S. Army Military District of Washington (all times are in Eastern Standard Time):
Big Apple Core Gets Pricier for Trucks
One of the most expensive cities in the U.S. for freight deliveries just got even more costly. Starting this week in New York City, heavy-duty trucks must pay $21.60 each time they enter Manhattan south of 60th Street between 5 a.m. and 9 p.m. on weekdays and between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. on weekends. The fee is scheduled to rise to $28.80 in 2028 and $36.00 in 2031. The fees are part of the congestion pricing plan New York rolled out this week for all vehicles entering Manhattan’s main business district. The New York state-controlled Metropolitan Transportation Authority says the congestion fee will reduce traffic while raising funds for mass transit improvements.
The charges add to the high costs for truckers in the New York metropolitan region, including tolls of $100 or more to cross some bridges, as well as some of the highest in the nation for insurance and labor. Stiff penalties for a long menu of infractions, including $115 tickets for double parking in neighborhoods with limited curb space and fines of $350 for idling for more than three minutes, add to the financial toll. “For many this is going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Zach Miller, vice president of government affairs at the Trucking Association of New York, which represents hundreds of carriers from independent owner-operators to large fleets.
Transition 2024
- Trump Ratchets Up Campaign to Gain Control of Greenland, Panama Canal – WSJ
- Trump’s Inauguration Coincides With An Unprecedented String Of High-Stakes Security Events In DC - AP
- Trump Invites House Republicans To Mar-A-Lago For Strategy Meetings - Politico
- Virginia Special Elections Test Democratic Enthusiasm As Trump Takes Office – The Hill
- Dems To The GOP On Budget Reconciliation: 'Good Luck' - Politico
- OpenAI’s Sam Altman Urges Trump To Ease Power Plant, Data Center Construction – The Hill
- Greenland, Oil And ‘All Hell’ In The Middle East: Takeaways From Trump’s Mar-A-Lago Press Conference - Politico
- US Imposes Sanctions On Russian And Iranian Groups Over Disinformation Targeting American Voters - AP
- Most In US Expect Biden Presidency Will Be Viewed Negatively: Gallup – The Hill
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Picks – Politico
Health and Wellness
Moderna Stock Jumps Amid Bird Flu Vaccine Hope After First U.S. Death
Shares were up 3.3% to $43.98 in premarket trading, after initially rising as much as 6%. Futures tracking the benchmark S&P 500 index traded largely flat. Moderna is one of a few drugmakers currently developing a vaccine for the H5N1 bird flu, which is spreading rapidly through farms and wild animals in North America. As of Monday, there had been 66 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the U.S. since 2024 and 67 since 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Outside of the U.S. about 950 cases have been reported to the World Health Organization, of which about half have resulted in death.
The person who died in the U.S. was more than 65 years old and had underlying medical conditions, the Louisiana Department of Health said Monday. Bird flu typically results in mild to severe respiratory symptoms, eye redness, and fever. Pfizer and GSK in partnership with CureVac are also developing mRNA vaccines for bird flu.
Industry News
Biden's Nippon Steel Block Shows How Unions And Workers Can Be At Odds
President Biden blocked Japan's Nippon Steel from buying U.S. Steel last week, earning the approval of the United Steelworkers union, which desperately wanted the deal crushed. But steel workers themselves may be less than enthused. It's not at all clear, however, that the president's pro-union move will actually wind up benefiting rank-and-file members of U.S. Steel or other workers in the Pennsylvania region where the storied company is based. Industry observers have said the company's future is rocky without outside investment. U.S. Steel has warned that without a deal it would be forced to close some operations in Pennsylvania, where it employs close to 4,000 people. Most threatened is believed to be Mon Valley Works, a steel processing plant with more than 3,000 workers. U.S. Steel also said it might relocate its Pittsburgh headquarters.
That would deliver a huge blow to the Pennsylvania economy, hurting the voters that Biden had been wooing in blocking the deal. While the union's top brass vehemently fought Nippon, it's not totally clear rank-and-file members lined up behind them. Many said they supported the deal, seeing it as a "lifeline" for a dying industry, as the Washington Post recently reported. Hundreds of workers staged a protest last month demanding the government let the deal go through.
Nippon Steel Expands In US And India For Strategic Growth
With a failed takeover in its rearview, Nippon Steel is turning its gaze toward strategic growth in two promising markets: the US and India. The global steel landscape is under stress from China's export overflow, a result of lackluster demand within its own shaky property sector. Nippon Steel sees the US market as a prime opportunity, buoyed by a consistent need for advanced steel in industries like electric vehicles (EVs). In India, a joint venture with ArcelorMittal is set to bolster production capacity massively by 2026, aligning with the country's anticipated 8.5% steel demand growth.
Nippon Steel's strategic plays hint at broader trends in the global steel industry, where market realignments due to China's internal demand issues and export policies shape the future landscape. These moves may foreshadow shifts in global supply dynamics, encouraging companies worldwide to hedge against volatility by expanding into emerging markets and securing essential raw materials.
CES 2025 Is Here. What Are The Main Themes We Can Expect This Week?
CES, the annual trade show of all things tech, is upon us. The multi-day event, organized by the Consumer Technology Association, kicks off this week in Las Vegas — where swaths of the latest gadgets and advances across industries like personal tech, transportation, health care, sustainability and more are set to be on display. And, like last year, artificial intelligence is everywhere you look.
CES 2025 will focus on a variety of themes important to the future of humanity. Over 4,000 companies will be here, on literally miles and miles of exhibit space. And they’ll be showing solutions to fundamental human problems — like access to food, clean air, clean water and mobility, as well as health care technology. Generative AI is affecting virtually every area. Just about every major exhibitor will be talking about AI in one form or another at CES this week. For businesses, the focus is more on enterprise and productivity. But for individuals, it’s about personalization.
Can Boeing Be Fixed? Aerospace Leaders Offer a Repair Manual
There’s a lot riding on Boeing’s ability to pull out of its nose dive. Boeing is the biggest U.S. exporter and one of the world’s two major manufacturers of large commercial jetliners, along with Europe’s Airbus. Boeing makes jets, bombs and helicopters for the U.S. military. It makes rockets and spacecraft for NASA. It employs some 170,000 people around the world and is the central cog in a global supply chain of thousands of companies from small parts shops to multinational giants like GE Aerospace.
“Everybody wants us to succeed,” Ortberg told workers. “They’re all also expecting us to kind of clean up our act and, you know, deliver good products and not have these snafus.” Ortberg, who took the helm of Boeing in August, has signaled his intention to shrink the company and slash layers of bureaucracy. The Wall Street Journal asked dozens of people—current and former Boeing leaders, airline executives, employees, suppliers, safety regulators and others—in recent months what Boeing should do to turn itself around. Here’s what they said.
Nvidia Unveils Robot Training Tech, New Gaming Chips And Toyota Deal
Nvidia on Monday took the wraps off new products such as artificial intelligence to better train robots and cars, souped-up gaming chips and its first desktop computer, as it expounded upon its potential to expand its business. At CES 2025 in Las Vegas, CEO Jensen Huang laid out how the world's second-most valuable firm is bringing technology that powers its lucrative data center AI chips to consumer PCs and laptops. He also introduced what Nvidia calls Cosmos foundation models that generate photo-realistic video which can be used to train robots and self-driving cars at a much lower cost than using conventional data.
By creating so-called "synthetic" training data, the models help robots and cars understand the physical world similar to the way that large language models have helped chatbots generate responses in natural language. Users will be able to give Cosmos a text description that can be used to generate video of a world that obeys the laws of physics. This promises to be much cheaper than gathering data as it is done today such as putting cars on the road to gather video or having humans teach robots repetitive tasks. Nvidia also said Japan's Toyota Motor will use its Orin chips and automotive operating system to power advanced driver assistance in several models.
Army, Pentagon Explore AI’s Potential to Transform Acquisition
“For the trillions of dollars that we put” toward creating “exquisite capabilities for the warfighter — and rightfully so — we haven’t given many capabilities to the people who manage those activities,” Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of software company Govini, said during a recent panel discussion at the Association of the United States Army’s annual meeting. When the Defense Department or a service awards a contract for “some unbelievable autonomous system, that program is going to get managed on the government side in a spreadsheet.”
Two days after Dougherty’s comments, the Army announced a new pilot project to explore potential applications of generative AI for the service’s acquisition activities. At the same time, the Defense Department as a whole is making a concerted effort to put advanced capabilities not only into the hands of warfighters but also those buying their equipment, officials and experts said. The Army pilot, called #CalibrateAI, will utilize LIGER — a generative AI solution developed by management consulting firm LMI — that is “designed to deliver tailored responses that are highly relevant to specific topics, improving the efficiency and effectiveness of information retrieval and analysis,” a service release stated. An LMI release said the service will use LIGER to streamline complex tasks; locate and synthesize information from Army policies, market research and acquisition documents; and develop high-quality products more quickly and efficiently.
ILA Union And Port Owners Held Secret Meeting On Automation As New Strike Looms
A secret meeting between key members of the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance was held on Sunday in an effort to help the dockworkers’ union and ports ownership find common ground on the heated issue of automation and semi-automation. A document produced out of the meeting indicates a focus on the creation of new human jobs to complement any new port technology.
CNBC has learned that the eight-hour meeting took place ahead of the highly anticipated resumption of formal bargaining, and with a January 15 deadline to avoid a new strike by dockworkers. According to sources close to the talks who were granted anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations — talks had recently broken down over the issue — language on automation was drawn up to assist the full bargaining committee review process slated for Tuesday. But the sources added that the language could lead to new concerns about added labor costs, and new risks to getting a comprehensive deal on wages and automation completed.
Stellantis Reveals Redesigned Ram Heavy-Duty Trucks
Stellantis has redesigned its large Ram heavy-duty trucks — and it’s betting those updates will help reverse three consecutive years of sales declines for the brand. The new Ram 2500 and 3500 pickups and chassis cab trucks feature updated interior and exterior designs, as well as a new 6.7-liter Cummins turbo diesel engine that produces 430 horsepower and 1,075 foot-pounds of torque, according to the automaker.
The heavy-duty trucks are expected to arrive in U.S. dealers during the first quarter of this year and will sell for roughly $2,300 more than current models, starting at $47,560. They follow the delayed rollout of their redesigned smaller sibling Ram 1500 pickup, which was released last year.
Energy Storage Hits Record Highs
According to the U.S. Energy Storage Monitor report, released by American Clean Power and Wood Mackenzie, Q3 2024 saw record-breaking energy storage installations, with grid-scale deployments leading the charge. The highlights:
Grid-scale installations reached 3,431 MW and 9,188 MWh, setting a new Q3 benchmark.
Total installations across all segments hit 3,794 MW and 9,931 MWh, up 80% and 58% year-over-year, respectively.
Residential energy storage saw unprecedented growth, hitting an all-time high.
These trends underscore the accelerating shift toward renewable energy integration and the pivotal role energy storage plays in grid reliability and decarbonization. For a deeper dive into these trends and what they mean for the energy market, download the full report now.