Member Briefing January 9, 2025
Rate-Cut Decision Was Narrow, Fed Minutes Show
Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed. Without calling out Trump by name, the meeting summary featured at least four mentions about the effect that changes in immigration and trade policy could have on the U.S. economy.
Since Trump’s November election victory, he has signaled plans for aggressive, punitive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as the other U.S. trading partners. In addition, he intends to pursue more deregulation and mass deportations. “Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” the minutes said. “As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.” The “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations showed that they anticipate two more rate cuts in 2026 and possibly another one or two after, ultimately taking the long-run fed funds rate down to 3%
U.S. Dockworkers, Employers Resume Talks Under Looming Strike Deadline
Leaders of the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents tens of thousands of dockworkers across the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, and industry officials began negotiations Tuesday in New Jersey for the first of three days of scheduled talks. Hanging over the negotiations are deep disagreements over the use of automation on the docks and the threat of a repeat of a three-day strike that shut down major ports including New York-New Jersey, Houston and Georgia’s Port of Savannah in October.
Port employers and ocean shipping companies say they agreed to a large wage increase on the understanding that the union would consent to gains in productivity that could come with more automation. But union leaders have dug in against the use of semi-autonomous cranes and other technology that employers say makes cargo handling safer and more efficient. Two ports covered by the ILA contract already use semi-autonomous cranes to stack and organize containers for pickup by truckers. One crane operator using the technology can oversee the work of several cranes at once. People familiar with the talks say the ILA wants to require that employers hire more people for each crane in operation. That would dramatically increase operating costs for ports like the Port of Virginia, which has 116 automated stacking cranes and is expecting to add another 36 of the machines in the next few years.
AI Superworkers ‘Coming On Like A Freight Train.’ Are You Ready?
According to industry analyst Josh Bersin, the impact of AI and the subsequent rise of superworkers is one of the top five challenges for HR in 2025. “This is going to really change the innerworkings of our companies,” said Bersin, calling it a “massive topic” that HR leaders will need to consider as they execute workforce planning this year. What makes a superworker? Bersin’s firm identifies this as an employee empowered by AI, enhancing their value, productivity and output by mastering AI tools in an AI-supported workplace.
The Bersin team is clear that in this scenario, AI isn’t about replacing jobs; it’s about empowering superworkers, leading to higher-value roles, better pay and increased business value—not just cost savings. The superworker function not only affects pay and job design but also “decompresses structural barriers” within the organization, giving employees access to enterprise-level AI tools. This approach could allow these employees to participate in projects that previously might have fallen outside their traditional job descriptions, which seems to position this mindset as a skills-based workplace enabler.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- With Hezbollah Weakened, Lebanon To Hold Presidential Vote - Reuters
- Bodies Of 2 Israeli Hostages Recovered By Soldiers In Gaza, Defense Minister Says - AP
- Israel, Hezbollah Fighting Stretches The Cease-Fire Deal To The Limit - WSJ
- UN: Way Forward For Syria's Political Transition Remains Unclear - VOA
- Israeli Strikes Kill Dozens In Gaza Amid Stepped Up Ceasefire Push - Reuters
- Iran Releases Italian Journalist Cecilia Sala - WSJ
- Iran Reportedly Executed At Least 901 People In 2024, UN Says – BBC
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russian Missile Attack Kills At Least 13 In Southern Ukraine – VOA
- NATO Allies To Unveil Plans for Ukraine up to 2027 - Newsweek
- NATO Membership Only Credible Security Guarantee For Ukraine, Finnish Foreign Minister Says - Reuters
- Ukraine Claims It Struck A Key Military Fuel Depot Deep Inside Russia - AP
- Russia Map Shows Oil Hubs Hit in Dozens of Ukraine Drone Raids - Newsweek
- Biden Administration Set To Announce ‘Substantial’ Final Weapons Package For Ukraine - AP
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- California Fires Live Updates: Over 100,000 Evacuated In Los Angeles Area, Two Dead In Eaton Fire - Reuters
- Canada Suddenly Has No Leader, and No Plan, for a Trump Trade Fight – WSJ
- China Expanding Subsidies To Boost Consumer Spending – Nikkie Asia
- Cocoa Farmers Abandon the Crop Despite Record Prices - WSJ
- Biden Meets Exiled Venezuelan Opposition Candidate - BBC
- Brazil Marks 2nd Anniversary Of Right-Wing Coup Attempt As Bolsonaro’s Legal Troubles Deepen - AP
- Why China Is Watching Trump's Bid For Greenland – Nikkei Asia
- Indonesia Is Admitted To The BRICS Bloc Of Developing Nations - AP
Policy and Politics
Pentagon Sending Assets To California To Battle Wildfires
The Defense Department is sending additional assets to California to assist with the massive wildfire spreading across Los Angeles and the southern part of the state. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Wednesday the U.S. was sending 10 Navy helicopters with water buckets. Singh said the Pentagon is working closely with the California National Guard, which is adding two Modular Airborne FireFighting Systems. The Nevada National Guard is also readying two more of those systems, which quickly discharge a retardant to battle fires.
Wildfires — the Eaton Fire, Palisades Fire, Hurst Fire, Tyler Fire and Woodley Fire — have burned thousands of acres in southern California. Two people have been killed and several injured from the Eaton Fire spreading in Los Angeles County. The fires have been stoked by the Santa Ana Winds that are in turn caused by the La Nina weather pattern which occurs every 2- 7 years and last 9 – 12 months.
Senate Republicans Prepare ‘Blitzkrieg’ On Biden Regulations
Senate Republicans, waiting for their House counterparts to figure out their strategy on border security and tax reform, are planning to use the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to wage a lightning war on regulations implemented by the Biden administration over the past six months. Senate GOP leaders say their first priority will be to confirm President-elect Trump’s Cabinet nominees but then they will move quickly to passing CRA resolutions to overturn an array of the Biden-era regulations. But they need to act quickly on the deregulatory front, because a joint resolution disapproving of Biden-era rules needs to be introduced under strict time requirements.
Joint resolutions disapproving of Biden administration rulemaking cannot be filibustered in the Senate, but Republican senators will need to act on the resolutions within a 60-day window if they are to bypass regular procedural hurdles. The resolutions are filibuster-proof if Senate Republicans advance them within the first 60 session days of the 119th Congress. Those are calendar days when the Senate is in session. After that window, the special procedural protection expires. The new GOP-controlled Congress can act on rules finalized since the middle of last summer.
White House Issues Quadrennial Supply Chain Review
To highlight the government’s efforts to tackle risks, eliminate bottlenecks, and ensure the efficient operation of supply chains, on December 24, the White House issued the Quadrennial Supply Chain Review. In the Review, the Department of Commerce’s Supply Chain Center shared its first public findings from its new SCALE supply chain risk assessment tool. SCALE significantly upgrades the U.S. Government’s ability to conduct cross-cutting assessments of resilience and vulnerability, employing more than 40 indicators to assess current or prospective risk across the U.S. goods economy. Key initial findings shared in the review include:
- Most U.S. goods industries are exposed to structural supply chain risks. Nearly every industry in the economy scores high in at least one indicator of risk.
- The U.S. goods economy is interdependent, including dependence on industries and products exposed to high levels of risk. More than 86 percent of industries are dependent on inputs for other industries that are themselves medium-high or high risk.
- U.S. goods industries have poor import diversification. Many U.S. industries rely heavily on a limited number of countries for key imports. In fact, nearly 38 percent of U.S. industries are heavily reliant on single country sourced products, with more than half of industries having minimal diversification of source countries for their critical inputs.
- The highest-risk industries cut across the U.S. economy, including electronics, chemicals, and transportation. In many cases, vulnerability is driven by high levels of imports from risky countries, including China, or from other highly concentrated sources.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Transition 2024
- Trump Imagines New Sphere of U.S. Influence Stretching From Panama to Greenland – WSJ
- European Union rebuffs Trump's designs on Greenland takeover - VOA
- Ron Desantis Has To Pick Rubio’s Replacement Soon. Here’s Who He’s Leaning Toward. - Politico
- Trump Could Declare National Economic Emergency To Justify Universal Tariffs - CNN
- Garland To Release Smith’s Jan. 6 Report, Hold Back Mar-A-Lago Report – The Hill
- The impact of Trump’s agenda will depend on the state you live in - Politico
- US Would Need Extra $500B to Comply With Donald Trump's 5% NATO Demand - Newsweek
- France, Germany, Poland Plan Show-Of-Unity Trip To US After Trump’s Inauguration - Politico
- Tracking Trump’s Cabinet Picks – Politico
Health and Wellness
Weight Management Programs And Weight-Loss Medications: 4 Red Flags To Avoid and 5 Green Flags to Follow
The hype and demand of the new weight-loss medications have shifted not only how health care approaches weight loss, but also (and more importantly) the risk of obesity-related comorbidities such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and more. It’s extremely tempting to view these medications as a “quick-fix” for a myriad of health-related problems, but obesity is extremely complex.
This guide highlights what employers and benefits advisors should watch for in weight-management programs, and why a balanced, personalized approach always involves a behavior-change program but may or may not include weight-loss medications. Together, these elements create a comprehensive strategy for promoting employee wellness and long-term success in weight management.
Industry News
US Weekly Jobless Claims At 11-Month Low Amid Labor Market Stability
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to an 11-month low last week, pointing to a stable labor market, though a slowdown in hiring has led some laid-off workers to experience long bouts of joblessness. Signs of a steadily cooling labor market could allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in January against the backdrop of still high inflation.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 201,000 for the week ended Jan. 4, the lowest level since February 2024, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 218,000 claims for the latest week. While layoffs have remained low by historical standards, hiring has slowed, with the ADP National Employment on Wednesday showing private payrolls increased by 122,000 jobs in December after rising 146,000 in November. Economists had forecast private employment rising by 140,000.
BlueOval SK Battery Builders File NLRB Petition for UAW Representation
Seven weeks since workers at the BlueOval SK plant announced a campaign to join the United Auto Workers, the group has submitted an official union representation petition to the NLRB calling for an election. Union organizers, in a release, note that the action is the union’s first major organizing step of the new year and its latest move in the traditionally union-scarce South. BlueOval SK is a joint venture between Ford Motor Company and SK On, a Korean battery manufacturer. The venture’s Elizabethtown, Kentucky location is about an hour south of Ford’s UAW-represented Louisville plant.
Outside of battery plants, the election will be the latest bellwether in the UAW’s push for more represented plants in the South. The union has more of a mixed record there: Last year, the UAW won an election to represent Volkswagen’s Spring Hill, Tennessee, plant, but lost one to represent a Mercedes-Benz plant in Vance, Alabama.
Boeing Gets Funds for Electronic Warfare System
The U.S. Dept. of Defense granted $615.7 million to Boeing Defense, Space & Security for full-rate production of the F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability System, an electronic warfare technology developed to detect, identify, and counter incoming threats to the U.S. Air Force fighter jets. The system integrates radar warning, geolocation, situational awareness, and self-protection capabilities in a common platform to notify a jet’s flight crew with identification and location details for potential threats in contested air space. The contract covers material and component procurement, system engineering program management, and interim contractor support lay-in material.
The F-15 is a twin-engine fighter aircraft developed and manufactured by McDonnell Douglas Corp. from 1972 to 1997, and now supported by Boeing Defense, which absorbed McDonnell Douglas in 1997. The aircraft are primarily used by the USAF and the air forces of Israel, Japan, and Saudi Arabia.
Read more at American Machinist
Flying Taxis Are On The Horizon As Aviation Soars Into A New Frontier
Joby Aviation CEO JoeBen Bevirt is getting closer to turning his boyhood flights of fancy into a dream come true as he and latter-day versions of the Wright Brothers launch a new class of electric-powered aircraft vying to become taxis in the sky. The aircraft — known as “electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle, or eVTOL — lift off the ground like a helicopter before flying at speeds up to 200 miles per hour (322 kilometers per hour) with a range of about 100 miles (161 kilometers). And these craft do it without filling the air with excessive noise caused by fuel-powered helicopters and small airplanes.
Because its electric taxis can fly unimpeded at high speeds, Joby envisions transporting up to four Delta Air Lines passengers at a time from New York area airports to Manhattan in about 10 minutes or less. To start, air taxi prices almost certainly will be significantly more that the cost of taking a cab or Uber ride from JFK airport to Manhattan, but the difference could narrow over time because eVTOLs should be able to transport a higher volume of passengers than ground vehicles stuck in traffic going each way.
Honeywell, NXP Semiconductors Expand Partnership To Develop Aviation Technology
Honeywell and NXP Semiconductors will expand their partnership to develop AI-driven technology for aviation and autonomous flying, the companies said on Wednesday. Under the partnership, the companies will combine Honeywell's Anthem avionics — a cloud-connected cockpit system — and chipmaker NXP's computing architecture to improve planning and managing flights.
The partnership will look to adapt NXP's autonomy architecture, originally targeted at the automotive industry, with Anthem to enhance autonomous flying technology. Autonomous flying has taken the spotlight in aviation, with electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) makers aiming to revolutionize urban travel.
NASA Explores Sustainable Thermoplastic Composites
NASA’s CAS Sustainable Manufacturing of Aircraft (SUMAC) project was started in September 2024 to explore sustainably derived thermoplastic composites to minimize environmental impacts on the full lifecycle of aircraft. The project is funded by NASA’s Aeronautics Mission Directorate (ARMD) and its Convergent Aeronautics Solutions Program (CAS). “The CAS SUMAC project demonstrates sustainable composite technologies for advanced air mobility and commercial aircraft, ​using sustainable thermoplastic resins and natural fibers,” NASA tells CW. “In essence, SUMAC is a good example of how CAS invigorates enduring change in aeronautics to revolutionize air transportation, shaping aviation innovations that spark meaningful benefits for humanity.”
The SUMAC project highlights the crucial role of materials in sustainable aviation, which are often neglected due to the heavy focus on sustainable aviation fuel and new propulsion technologies. The space agency seeks to advance the applicability of sustainable composites in the aviation market, including resins/fibers characterizations, composites manufacturing and tests, integrated sensing for material state awareness, computational materials modeling and life cycle analysis.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Hershey Seeks CFTC Approval to Buy Huge New York Cocoa Pile
Hershey Co. is asking the US’s top derivatives regulator for permission to buy a huge amount of cocoa through the New York exchange after global shortages sent prices to a record, according to people familiar with the matter. A spokesperson for the Pennsylvania-based company said Hershey has a “rigorous” procurement process and that it is “well covered” on its cocoa needs for 2025. The CFTC and ICE declined to comment.
The maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on ICE Futures US, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The request to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission equates to about 5,000 20-foot containers and is more than nine times the amount the exchange currently allows.
Arizona State University Research Park To Host Major Microchip R&D Facility
The US Department of Commerce and its nonprofit arm announced that Arizona State University Research Park in Tempe, Ariz., has been selected as one of the nation's three flagship microchip research and development facilities. The facility, known as the CHIPS for America NSTC Prototyping and National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program Advanced Packaging Piloting Facility, is scheduled to become operational in 2028 and will focus on bridging research and semiconductor production.
The facility will bridge the gap between research and semiconductor production, focusing on research, development and testing of new materials, devices and packaging, the department announced. It will enable testing of new materials and devices, contributing to US leadership in semiconductor technology.
Read more at The Arizona Republic