Skip to content

Member Briefing July 10, 2025

July 10, 2025

Posted By: Harold King in Daily Briefing,

Top Story

A Closer Look At Manufacturing Jobs Data From The June Report

Employment figures changed little in June, according to the latest figures available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing, however, is losing jobs, at a tepid rate that is nevertheless faster than the rest of the economy. Overall, manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs last month. June job losses in manufacturing were mostly proportional to the size of their industry, with durable goods manufacturing shedding 5,000 jobs and nondurable goods shedding the remaining 2,000.

Durable and nondurable goods manufacturing have lost more net jobs than any other BLS-tracked sector on 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month basis.
Computer and electronic product manufacturing lost just under 5,000 jobs itself, while primary metal manufacturing and fabricated metal product manufacturing both lost half a thousand jobs and 1.5 thousand jobs, respectively.
Compared to 3 months ago, manufacturing has lost 14,000 jobs: of other industry groups, only mining and logging lost employment over the same time frame, and lost only 3,000.
Compared to June 2024, manufacturing has lost a net 89,000 jobs. Professional and business service companies, which otherwise lost the most jobs, dropped 36,000 jobs in the same period.
Wages in manufacturing declined on average. The average manufacturing wage in June 2025 was $35.19 an hour or $1,411.12 a week, $1.11/hour or $169.66/week less than the average private-sector wage.
The mean wage in durable goods fell by 10 cents to $37.28, and the mean nondurable goods wage increased by 5 cents to $31.67.

Read more at IndustryWeek

June CPI Preview: Key Summer Stretch Begins

Next week’s June CPI report is likely to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this juncture. We expect the headline CPI to rise 0.25% in June, which would nudge the year-ago rate up to 2.6%. Excluding food and energy, we anticipate the core CPI to increase 0.24% and view the risks skewed more to an upside surprise of 0.3% versus another downside surprise of 0.1%. If our forecast is realized, the 3-month and 12-month annualized rates of core CPI would strengthen to 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively.

The next three months will mark a key stretch of inflation data. While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle. We expect core goods prices to pick up further in the second half of the year as a result, but look for the pass-through to be limited by growing consumer fatigue. Amid a softer labor market and services inflation dissipating a bit more, the pickup in core inflation stemming from tariffs is likely to look more like a bump than a spike.

Read more at Wells Fargo

June Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Rate Cuts Coming, But Opinions Vary Widely On How Many

Minutes from the June 17-18 meeting released Wednesday showed that policymakers largely held to a wait-and-see position on future rate moves. The meeting ended with Federal Open Market Committee members voting unanimously to hold the central bank’s key borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December 2024. However, the summary also showed a growing divide over how policy should proceed from here. “Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate,” the minutes said, as officials saw tariff-induced inflation pressures as potentially “temporary and modest” while economic growth and hiring could weaken.

How far the cuts could go, though, was a matter of debate. Opinions ranged from a “couple” officials who said the next cut could come as soon as this month to “some” who thought no reductions this year would be appropriate. Though the minutes do not mention names, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have gone on record saying they could see their way to cutting rates as soon as the July 29-30 Fed meeting if inflation stays under control.

Read more at CNBC

Global Headlines

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Policy and Politics

Judges Keep Blocking Trump's Policies Despite US Supreme Court Injunction Curbs

President Donald Trump called the U.S. Supreme Court's June 27 decision limiting the ability of federal judges to use nationwide injunctions to block his policies "a monumental victory," but his legal win may be less definitive than it first appeared. The Supreme Court's decision curtailed the ability of judges to issue so-called universal injunctions that can stop the government from enforcing a policy against anyone, anywhere in the entire country.

The Trump administration said it would move quickly to challenge such injunctions. However, the ruling by the court's 6-3 conservative majority contained exceptions, allowing federal judges to continue to issue sweeping rulings blocking key parts of the Republican president's agenda. In the short time since the ruling, lower-court judges have already blocked Trump's asylum ban at the U.S.-Mexico border, prevented his administration from ending temporary deportation protections for Haitian migrants and forced the government to restore health websites deemed to run afoul of Trump's efforts to squash "gender ideology."

Read more at Reuters

Senate GOP Plots How To Move Trump’s $9.4B Clawbacks Request

Senate Republicans are eyeing changes to the White House’s $9.4 billion request to claw back funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting as leadership plans to bring it to the floor next week. Majority Leader John Thune can only lose three GOP senators and still get the House-passed bill to the floor and ultimately across the finish line — and the South Dakota Republican is openly acknowledging that it’s TBD what the bill looks like when and if it gets there. That’s because Republican senators are still talking about potential tweaks to slim down the cuts President Donald Trump is seeking for global health programs and AIDS prevention efforts around the world, as well as local radio stations and public TV programming valued back home.

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins of Maine, as well as South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, are among the Senate Republicans exploring the idea of amending the package to protect funding for public broadcasting, along with programs to stop the spread of AIDS. By the end of the day on July 18, the request Trump sent to Capitol Hill last month will expire, meaning the administration will be forced to spend the money as lawmakers originally intended if Congress doesn’t act.

Read more at Politico

AFT, Tech Companies Join Forces On $23M Teacher AI Training Initiative

Major technology companies that create artificial intelligence products—including Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI—are teaming up with the American Federation of Teachers to provide free AI teacher training. The companies have pledged $23 million combined over five years to the effort, including the creation of a National Academy for AI Instruction, a brick-and-mortar facility in New York City. The facility will begin instruction with New York City educators this fall and then expand nationally.

The partnership will offer teachers continuing education credits, credentials and certifications, workshops, online courses, and training sessions. It will also provide continuous support and resources to keep educators in the loop on the latest AI advancements. The academy will use educator feedback and “actual classroom experiences” to tweak and improve its work. Ultimately, the initiative plans to support 400,000 educators, according to the AFT, a 1.8-million-member union. “Teachers are facing huge challenges, which include navigating AI wisely, ethically and safely,” said Randi Weingarten, the president of AFT, at an event held at the headquarters of the union’s New York City affiliate, the United Federation of Teachers, and streamed online.

Read More at K12 Dive

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

Breast Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough Raises Hopes Of Eradicating Disease

A breakthrough breast cancer vaccine has completed Phase one trials, with over 75 percent of participants showing a strong immune response, raising hopes it could help eradicate the disease by in the near future. The vaccine, developed by Anixa Biosciences and the Cleveland Clinic, targets alpha‑lactalbumin, a milk protein linked to aggressive triple-negative breast cancer, to help prevent and treat the disease. That form of cancer is known as the most deadly.

“It’s a very new mechanism and we think that if this works and is able to prevent cancer, then we can perhaps eliminate breast cancer as a disease, just like we’ve done for polio and various other infectious diseases,” Dr. Amit Kumar, Anixa’s CEO said. Phase two is scheduled for next year and will test a larger group of participants and expand testing to additional types of breast cancer. Unlike vaccines for infections, cancer vaccines face challenges because cancer originates from the body's own cells, making it harder for the immune system to distinguish them. Past attempts often targeted proteins found in both cancerous and healthy tissues, sometimes causing harmful immune responses.

Read more at The Independent

Industry News

Tariff Headlines

Nissan Has Halted Production Of Three Models For Canada At Two US Plants, Nikkei Reports

Nissan Motor has suspended production of three vehicle models for Canada at its Tennessee and Mississippi plants amid mutual tariffs imposed by the U.S. and Canada on auto exports, the Nikkei reported on Wednesday. The production halt, which began in May, affects the Pathfinder and Murano SUVs made in Tennessee and the Frontier pickup trucks produced in Mississippi, the report said.

The Trump administration imposed 25% additional tariffs on auto imports in April, prompting Canada to implement retaliatory tariffs. Mazda Motor also halted Canada-bound production at its Alabama plant while boosting production for the U.S. market, the company said in May. While Canada is a relatively small market for Nissan, a suspension of exports would underscore the difficulty facing global automakers from the tariffs. The levies have also added to a deepening crisis at Nissan, which has been badly hit by deteriorating sales and an ageing vehicle lineup. It reported a $4.5 billion net loss in the financial year that ended in March and has declined to disclose a forecast for the current financial year, when it also faces some 700 billion yen ($4.8 billion) in debt coming due.

Read more at Reuters

Nvidia Becomes World's First $4 Trillion Company

A rally in Nvidia's shares lifted its market capitalization above $4 trillion, a world first that caps a remarkable run for the artificial-intelligence chip maker. Wednesday's milestone comes barely two years after the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company, led by Chief Executive Jensen Huang, notched a $1 trillion valuation for the first time. Nvidia is now worth as much as the 216 smallest companies in the S&P 500 combined, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

After hitting the new peak, Nvidia stock pared gains. It recently stood 1.9% higher at $163.08 a share. That put it on course for an end-of-day level slightly below the threshold. The minimum level for Nvidia to retain a $4 trillion valuation at the close is $163.934.

Read more at Reuters

Automotive Suppliers Facing Mounting Headwinds

Automotive suppliers are under increasing pressure as they continue to face challenging market conditions. According to a recently study conducted by Roland Berger and Lazard, stagnant production volumes, geopolitical uncertainty, increasing competition and rising cost pressures have driven average profitability down to just 4.7 percent. Weak demand and challenging price negotiations with OEMs are placing additional strain on suppliers. While OEM profitability is still higher, it has also declined. That is predicted to put sustained pressure on supplier margins in the coming years.

“The era of steady market growth is over and a more volatile environment will continue to put pressure on earnings and profits,” adds Florian Daniel, a partner at Roland Berger who worked on the Global Automotive Supplier Study. “However, suppliers can still succeed by implementing consistent efficiency improvement programs, forming partnerships to optimize and scale their portfolios, streamlining their product offering and focusing on strategic technologies.” Another study conducted by Plante Moran claims that General Motors, Honda and Toyota have the best business relationships with suppliers in North America. Specifically, cost management, strategic alignment and stronger communication are seen as important factors in helping suppliers manage risk and uncertainty.

Read more at Assembly Magazine

Patriot Missile Stockpile Concerns Grow, Pentagon Claims It Has Enough

The Pentagon is pushing back on a published report claiming that the U.S. only has about 25% of the Patriot interceptors it needs. The comments follow the Defense Department’s reported temporary pause in the delivery of interceptors and other weapons to Ukraine over concerns about U.S. supplies. Meanwhile, officials in Kyiv are pleading for new interceptors because they are getting pummeled by Russian airstrikes. The first U.S.-made Patriot systems arrived in Ukraine in April 2023 from Germany. Since then, the U.S. has provided three batteries and an unspecified number of interceptors, which have been put to great use swatting down Russian missiles, drones and aircraft. The Patriot is the only system that can defend against Russian high-speed and ballistic missiles.

“The U.S. military has what it needs to fight and win any mission, anywhere, anytime,” Lt. Col. Bryon McGarry told The War Zone Tuesday morning. “We’re not going to discuss specific stockpile numbers or operational details, but our forces remain fully equipped, fully ready, and globally postured to respond to any challenge. Ongoing assessments of our capabilities are routine and reflect responsible planning, not shortfall. Readiness isn’t in question—it’s ensured.”

Read more at The War Zone

DoD Issues $2.8B for Jet Engine Supplies

The U.S. Dept. of Defense approved a $2.85-billion contract for CFM International to provide F108 engine supplies through October 2029, a contract that includes one five-year option. CFM International is a joint-venture of GE Aerospace and Safran Aircraft Engines that develops turbofan engines, which are manufactured separately by the two venture partners. F108 is the military designation for the CFM56 turbofan engine, a high-bypass, two-shaft engine that is widely used for commercial jets – but also notably for military cargo and tanker jets. The four-engine Boeing KC-135 midair refueling jet is the most significant military aircraft using the engine.

For the CFM56/F108, GE Aerospace produces the high-pressure compressor, combustor, and high-pressure turbine, and Safran produces the fan, gearbox, exhaust and low-pressure turbine. Other components are sourced from different suppliers, and each venture partner handles final assembly for engines it is contracted to supply. Although the Pentagon now plans to replace the KC-135 with the twin-engine KC-46 tanker, there remain numerous KC-135s in service with the U.S. Air Force and allied nations, and defense planners expect those aircraft to continue operating for many years.

Read more at American Machinist

Auto Sales Slip In Q2

Few automakers saw sales increase in Q2 compared to a year ago. But GM, Ford and Toyota were on the upswing as each company reported solid gains in sales of electric vehicles. The industry is adjusting to U.S. tariff policy and global trade wars.

Ford Motor Co. sold 612,095 vehicles in Q2, a 14.2% YoY increase. Truck sales, including F-Series pickups, Ranger and Maverick lines, were up 15.1% compared to last year, with a combined total of 288,564 units. Ford reported sales of 156,509 electrified vehicles in Q2, up 14.7% YoY. Hybrid vehicles represented 75% of Ford’s electrified vehicle sales, reaching 117,521 units in Q2.
General Motors maintained its sales momentum due to strong demand for SUVs and pickups during Q2, reporting sales 746,588 units, up 7% year-over-year. The automaker reported first-half sales were up 12% year-over-year, outpacing its competition, which was estimated at 4% growth.
Toyota Motor North America sold 666,469 units in Q2, up 7.2% YoY. Electrified vehicles represented nearly half of the automaker’s quarterly sales with 320,817 units sold. Toyota’s luxury Lexus division sold 95,923 vehicles in Q2, a YoY increase of 8.1%.
All other automakers saw sales fall in Q2. Including VW (-19%) Stellantis (-10%) Nissan (-6.5%) and Audi (-19%).

Read more at Yahoo Finance

MTA Shuts Down Ferry Service Between Beacon and Newburgh Citing Low Ridership

On average, only 62 people a day used the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry before it was shut down in January. That compared to 227 per day in 2008. Ridership never rebounded since then, said Justin Vonashek, president of Metro-North Railroad. He told Mid-Hudson News on Tuesday that the competition between the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge and daily state DOT operated bus service between the two cities found the ferry service to be non-productive. It was costing Metro-North $2.1 million a year to operate the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry with declining ridership, leading to the decision to terminate service.

On Tuesday nearly 200 residents rallied at the Newburgh ferry dock Tuesday evening to express outrage over the MTA’s sudden announcement that ferry service between Newburgh and Beacon will permanently end. Organizer Wendy Smith says the restoration of ferry service between Newburgh and Beacon is about more than just commuters. “It’s also about the economic development of the west side of the river and the connectivity because Newburgh and Beacon should operate as one. We can benefit each other,” says Smith. Residents say ridership was down because the ferry had limited hours and no weekend service.

Read More at Mid-Hudson News

Second-Life EV Batteries Might Play Standout Role In Satisfying Booming Energy Demand

Redwood Materials is repurposing old EV batteries into energy storage systems that cost “substantially less” than brand new storage projects, the company said Thursday. The electric vehicle battery recycling and manufacturing venture, which was founded by Tesla’s former chief technologist, has created a new division called Redwood Energy to manage these projects. The aim is to divert “depreciated but functional” EV batteries from the recycling stream and repurpose them into “low-cost, large-scale” energy storage systems that can help plug critical gaps in the energy grid.

Redwood says it receives over 20 GWh of batteries annually — the equivalent of 250,000 EVs— which represents about 90 percent of all lithium-ion batteries and battery materials recycled in North America. And often times, the batteries it receives for recycling still have a lot of usable energy capacity — up to 50 percent. These are batteries that are no longer suitable to power an electric vehicle, but still have enough life in them to serve some purpose. So rather than recycle those still functional batteries, Redwood is turning them into stationary storage systems. And the company says this will be a growing opportunity as more EV batteries reach the end of their lifespan. Redwood estimates that more than 100,000 EVs will come off the road this year alone.

Read more at The Verge

Member Briefing July 9, 2025July 9, 2025