Member Briefing July 9, 2025
NFIB: Small Business Optimism Steady in June
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained steady in June, edging down 0.2 of a point to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. The Uncertainty Index decreased by five points from May to 89. Nineteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up one point from May and ranking as the top problem again. The last time taxes reached 19 percent was in July 2021.
- The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell three points from May to a net 22%. Historically, this is still a positive reading with the 51-year average at a net 3%.
- The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell three points from May to a net 7%.
- Twenty-one percent plan capital outlays in the next six months, down one point from May.
- The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as the single most important problem for business remained at 16%, unchanged from May. The last time complaints about labor quality fell below 16% was in April 2020.
- Fewer small business owners reporting labor as their top problem aligns with other data suggesting a more tempered labor market economy-wide.
- Eleven percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), down three points from May and the lowest reading since September 2021. Inflation pressures continue to ease on Main Street.
Conference Board: The Labor Market Remains "Frozen”
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index comes out just after the BLS jobs report each month and it crunches together a bunch of data points to try to anticipate what’s coming. The report aggregates eight different labor market indicators, including first-time jobless claims, involuntary part-time work and sentiment about how easy it is for workers to find jobs and employers to find workers. In June, the ETI held steady.
Conference Board senior economist Yelena Shulyatyeva said overall, the labor market remains solid. “I don’t think it’s going to go and drop off a cliff. But I do see continued slowdown to a point at which we may see an increase in the unemployment rate by the year-end,” she said. What’s going on with employers is a "great hesitation” to grow or shrink their payrolls — really to do much of anything right now…. Companies are just waiting to see whether the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other things is lifted,” she said.
Inflation Expectations Drift Back Down To Pre-Tariff Levels, New York Fed Survey Shows
Fears earlier this year that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would result in a sharp inflation spike have completely receded, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Tuesday. The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that respondents in June saw inflation at 3% 12 months from now. That’s the same level it was in January — before Trump took office and began saber-rattling over trade. The level marked a 0.2 percentage point decline from May and a retreat from the 3.6% peak hit in March and April.
Inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively, according to the survey. While the headline inflation outlook eased, respondents still expect higher prices in several key individual categories. The survey pointed to expectations for a 4.2% increase in gas prices, 9.3% for medical care — the highest since June 2023 — and 9.1% for both college education and rent. The outlook for food price increases was unchanged at 5.5%.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Netanyahu Meets Trump At White House As Israel, Hamas Discuss Ceasefire – Reuters
- Israel And Hamas Are Inching Toward A New Ceasefire Deal For Gaza. This Is How It Might Look - AP
- Netanyahu Nominates Trump for Nobel Prize, Cites Hope for Middle East Peace - Newsweek
- At Least Three Killed By Attack On Red Sea Cargo Ship Blamed On Houthi Rebels – France 24
- Deaths of Five Israeli Soldiers Fuel Debate Over Ending Gaza War - WSJ
- Israeli Military Official Says Iran Hit Some Military Sites Last Month - Reuters
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukraine Urges Investigation Into Alleged Russian Chemical Weapons Use - Reuters
- Trump Says Putin Feeds U.S. ‘Bulls—t’ About Ending War in Ukraine - WSJ
- How Old-School Tech Is Rewiring Drone Warfare in Ukraine - WSJ
- Ukrainian Foreign Office Creates Unit To Defy Threats From ‘Unfriendly Countries’ - Politico
- US Ally Sweeden Makes Largest Ammo Order in Decades - Newsweek
- Russian Minister Was Implicated In Embezzlement Investigation Before Death, Sources Say - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- German Court Deals Blow To Merz’s Migration Crackdown – Politico
- NATO Chief Predicts China's Plan For Taiwan - Newsweek
- EU Plans To Stockpile Drugs, Vaccines, PPE For Next Health Threat - Politico
- Macron Kicks Off 'Historic' UK State Visit To Reset Ties With King Charles, Starmer – France 24
- Why China's ultimatum to Myanmar rebels threatens global supply of heavy rare earths - Reuters
- China Urged To Take Bolder Steps To Tackle Price Wars, Deflation And Weak Demand - SCMP
- Brussels Backs Romania’s Drastic Fiscal Recovery Plan - Politico
- Nairobi Is Locked Down As Kenyan Police Clash With Protesters - BBC
- Dutch Canal-Leaping Pole Vaulters Keep Centuries-Old Tradition Alive – France 24
Policy and Politics
When Will Key Aspects Of Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Take Effect?
President Trump signed his sweeping tax cut and spending package known as the “big, beautiful bill” into law during a Fourth of July celebration on Friday.The measure boosts defense and border wall funding and makes Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, offsetting some of those costs with deep cuts to Medicaid, food assistance programs, student loans and clean energy programs.
Some of the law’s key pieces will take effect later this year, while others will not be implemented until well after midterm elections. Here are when the biggest parts of the new law will take effect:
Grants Available to Help Manufacturers Enter Defense Supply Chain
The Maritime and Defense Supply Chain Capacity Program designed to enable manufacturers to better compete in the Maritime and Defense industries through funding programs that will prepare them to comply with applicable certifications and increase awareness of new manufacturing technologies and broaden their knowledge of new component suppliers. The Grants are available through the State’s Manufacturing Extension Program (MEP). Funded programs specifically include:
- Training and support to achieve compliance with ISO-9001:2015
- Training and support to achieve compliance with AS9100
- Training and support to achieve compliance with CMMC
- Training and support to achieve compliance with ITAR
- Evaluating new manufacturing technologies
- Identifying new component suppliers
Learn More and/or register for an informational webinar
Megabill: Key Tax Changes Affecting Businesses
- Makes permanent and expands the 20% qualified business income (QBI) deduction for owners of pass-through entities (such as partnerships, limited liability companies and S corporations) and sole proprietorships
- Makes permanent 100% bonus depreciation for the cost of qualified new and used assets, for property acquired after January 19, 2025
- Creates a 100% deduction for the cost of “qualified production property” for qualified property placed into service after July 4, 2025, and before 2031
- Increases the Sec. 179 expensing limit to $2.5 million and the expensing phaseout threshold to $4 million for 2025, with annual inflation adjustments going forward
- Increases the cap on the business interest deduction by excluding depreciation, amortization and depletion from the calculation of “adjusted taxable income”
- Permanently allows the immediate deduction of domestic research and experimentation expenses (retroactive to 2022 for eligible small businesses)
- Makes permanent the excess business loss limit
- Prohibits the IRS from issuing refunds for certain Employee Retention Tax Credit claims that were filed after January 31, 2024
- Eliminates clean energy tax incentives, including the qualified commercial clean vehicle credit, the alternative fuel vehicle refueling property credit and the Sec. 179D deduction for energy-efficient commercial buildings
- Permanently renews and enhances the Qualified Opportunity Zone program
- Permanently extends the New Markets Tax Credit
- Permanently increases the maximum employer-provided child care credit to $500,000 ($600,000 for small businesses), with annual inflation adjustments
- Makes permanent and modifies the employer credit for paid family and medical leave
- Makes permanent the exclusion for employer payments of student loans, with annual inflation adjustments to the maximum exclusion beginning in 2027
- Makes permanent the foreign-derived intangible income (FDII) and global intangible low-taxed income (GILTI) deductions and the minimum base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT)
- Expands the qualified small business stock gain exclusion for stock issued after the date of enactment
Political Headlines
- Adams, Cuomo Call On Each Other To Drop Out Of Mayoral Election – NY State Of Politics
- The Republican Strategy to Win Without Trump on the Ballot - WSJ
- Kamala Harris' Comeback Hopes Take a Major Blow - Newsweek
- Minnesota State Sen. John Hoffman Discharged From ICU Following Lawmaker Shootings - CBS
- Yang Says He’s Been ‘In Touch’ With Musk On America Party – The Hill
- Left Leaning Employer Group, Cities Sue RFK Jr. And Others Over 2026 Affordable Care Act Exchange Changes – Benefits Pro
- Sean Patrick Maloney Mulls Political Comeback Against Mike Lawler - Axios
- Medicaid Cuts In Trump’s Megabill May Affect Some Drugmakers More Than Others - CNBC
- Will Mamdani’s Proposed Millionaire Tax Save Or Sink New York City? - Forbes
- Recently Passed California Bill Defangs Its Environmental Code To Spur Chip Production – Manufacturing Dive
- Judge Temporarily Blocks Planned Parenthood ‘Defunding’ In Trump Megabill – The Hill
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
What We Get Wrong About Loneliness And How To Get It Right
According to the American Psychiatric Association, one in three people experience persistent loneliness. Other polls show that close to 60% report feeling lonely at least some of the time. At work, surveys show eight out of ten employees feel isolated and disconnected. People experiencing loneliness are less likely to work efficiently and struggle mentally and emotionally to stay present. They’re also three times more likely to have low job satisfaction and much more likely to have mental and physical health issues. A recent report, however, showed that since 2020, Americans time spent in meetings tripled. The daily usage of the business messaging app Slack increased from 12 million to 32 million in just a few years and the average adult now sends 30-40 messages to peers per day. We’re more connected than ever, but we’re increasingly lonely. What have we missed?
It’s not actually “loneliness,” that matters, however, it’s feeling that you don’t matter. The opposite of loneliness is not having more people around you but feeling significant to those around you—feeling truly seen, heard, and valued. Loneliness isn’t a result of a lack of social contact; it’s a result of a lack of perceived social value to others.
Industry News
Tariff Headlines
- Trump Announces Steep Tariffs On 14 Countries Starting Aug. 1 - CNBC
- Trump Says No Extensions to Aug. 1 Tariff Deadline - WSJ
- A Look At The Countries That Received Trump’s Tariff Letters – AP
- From 'Fantastic' To 'Spoiled': How Japan's Trade Effort To Woo Trump Backfired - Reuters
- U.S.’S Biggest Asian Allies Ready Last-Ditch Trade Appeal To Trump - WSJ
- Trump Floats 200% Tariffs On Pharmaceuticals - Forbes
- EU Chief Demands China Address Trade Imbalance As Tensions Flare - Yahoo
- Trump’s New Trade Stance As He Dictates Rates: 'A Letter Means A Deal' – Yahoo Finance
- Tariffs Create Copper Shortages In The Rest Of The World – Reuters
- Tariff Uncertainty Causes Real Pain For Small Businesses - Marketplace
Trump Extends “Reciprocal” Tariff Pause, Announces Modified Tariffs on More Than a Dozen Countries
President Trump issued an executive order effectively extending the baseline additional 10% “reciprocal” tariff on all countries (except Mexico, Canada and China) until Aug. 1. No new trade deals have been announced, though the White House has hinted that some may be revealed in the next day or two. This pause is an extension of the original pause in the “reciprocal” tariffs that were announced on April 2. The pause has been in place since April 9.
The president also announced revised “reciprocal” tariffs for specific countries in the form of letters to his counterparts. These rates are similar to those announced in April, with some slightly lower. The July 7 EO does not modify other International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariff rates applied to Canada, Mexico or China, and does not change any Section 232 tariffs in effect
Boeing Delivers Most Airplanes Since Late 2023 After Ramping Up 737 Max Output
Boeing delivered 60 airplanes last month, the most since December 2023, as the plane maker seeks to raise production of its bestselling 737 Max jets after a series of manufacturing and safety problems. The tally was the highest since before a door plug from one of its new 737 Max 9 planes blew out midair in January 2024, sparking a new crisis for the company and slowing production and deliveries of aircraft. Of the monthly total, 42 were 737 Maxes. CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the top job at Boeing last August, has said the company has made progress in improving production rates and quality on its factory lines.
For the three months ended June 30, Boeing handed over 150 airplanes, its best second quarter since 2018, before two crashes of Max planes five months apart grounded the jets and sparked a multiyear crisis at the top U.S. exporter. That was also the last year Boeing posted an annual profit. Boeing this spring had been producing about 38 Max aircraft a month and will need Federal Aviation Administration approval to go above that limit, which the agency set after the door plug accident. Ortberg said at a Bernstein investor conference in late May that he’s confident that the company could increase production to 42 of the jets a month.
Malaysia Airlines Doubles it Widebody Order with Airbus
The government-owned holding company for Malaysia Airlines booked a reported $6-billion order with Airbus for 40 A330neo jets, double the number of those widebody aircraft it had previously committed to take. The agreement drew the attention of French officials, who coordinated the announcement with a state visit to France by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The Malaysia Aviation Group operates the nation’s flagship airline, as well as subsidiary and regional carriers Firefly and MABSwings, and air freight carrier MAB Kargo.
The A330neo is powered by twin Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines, with a non-stop range of 77,200 nm / 8,264 miles / 13,300 km. Prior to the current announcement, Airbus had recorded more than 1,800 firm orders from over 130 airlines and air-leasing firms. Malaysia Airlines’ initial commitment to acquire 20 of the jets came in 2022, as part of a fleet-modernization program. Four of those aircraft have been delivered to date. Reportedly, the A330neo deliveries will be ongoing through 2029.
Read more at American Machinist
Budget Bill Provides $12.5B for Air Traffic Control
Passage of the massive budget reconciliation bill last week has cleared the way for ramped-up spending on air traffic control modernization. Congress ultimately settled on a $12.52 billion package to move forward with ambitious plans to upgrade, reorganize, and add new air traffic control facilities over the next several years. The funding covers a gamut of projects from telecommunications upgrades and a new air route traffic control center to runway safety measures, air traffic control staffing and training, and additional weather observation systems.
Leading up to passage, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy called the funding “the down payment America needs for a brand-new air traffic control system.” He acknowledged that additional funding would be necessary for the full overhaul, but during a fireside chat hosted by the Aerospace Industries Association at the Paris Air Show, Duffy had stressed the urgency of securing at least the $12.52 billion to jumpstart the department’s plans. “I want the full amount,” Duffy had said. “But I don’t need the full amount. I think this is the best way to do it.”
Read more at Aviation Industry
Toyota’s Giant Kentucky Plant Is Close To Industry’s Dream Of Building On Demand
In the oldest part of Toyota’s first U.S. assembly plant, where 40 years’ worth of Camry sedans have sprouted from disparate boxes of parts into finished vehicles, something that was long considered an industry pipe dream is coming into focus. The Japanese automaker will have the ability — or more accurately, the flexibility — to make almost any vehicle it needs, when it wants and all on the same line.
A nearly $1.8 billion, decade-long project internally known as “K-flex” and initially undertaken as an innovative experiment in what could be done, is transforming the original part of the Georgetown plant, known as Line 1, into perhaps the most flexible auto assembly line in the world. How flexible? With the right logistics support, Line 1 will be able to build almost any Toyota vehicle designed on its TNGA-K global platform — the top-selling Camry and RAV4, whether hybrid, combustion or plug-in hybrid; larger crossovers including the Highlander and even the Sienna minivan, as well as skateboard-based EVs in that size range.
Yellow Corp. Selling 4 Terminals For $4M
Various real estate investors have entered agreements to acquire four terminals valued at $3.95 million from Yellow Corp.’s estate, according to a filing with a federal bankruptcy court in Delaware. The defunct less-than-truckload carrier has liquidated more than 200 terminals fetching roughly $2.4 billion since filing for bankruptcy in 2023, including one in Maybrook, Orange County.
The owned properties include a 50-door terminal in Birmingham, Alabama, valued at $1.55 million, a 30-door terminal near Pittsburgh ($1.53 million), a 29-door facility in Columbia, South Carolina ($650,000) and a 12-door terminal in Fairfield, Maine ($225,000). It appears no LTL carrier is involved in the latest asset sales. Proceeds from the property sales will be used to settle claims filed against the estate, including employee claims for PTO, sick time and amounts sought under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.
5th Circ. Overrules NLRB - Says Apple Didn't Suppress Union In NYC
Apple Inc. successfully challenged a National Labor Relations Board ruling that it violated federal labor law by coercively interrogating a worker and removing union literature from a break room. The US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled that the NLRB lacked substantial evidence for its finding that Apple committed those unfair labor practices at its World Trade Center store in Manhattan. The case stems from an effort by the Communications Workers of America to organize Apple’s World Trade Center store, one of the union’s campaigns that failed to lead to a union election.
While the Fifth Circuit handed Apple a win, it declined to consider the company’s free speech argument that pushed for new legal standards that would have made it more difficult for the NLRB to police employers’ coercive questioning of employees. The court said that it didn’t need to weigh whether a manager’s statements to a worker were protected by the First Amendment because they didn’t constitute illegal questioning. The NLRB also lacked the necessary support in the record to conclude that the company illegally removed union fliers from the break room, said panel, which included Judges Priscilla Richman, a George W. Bush appointee, and Dana Douglas, a Biden appointee. Apple didn’t single out union material for removal, but instead fairly enforced its non-solicitation and housekeeping policies to remove all unattended written materials from the break room, the court said.
Metro-North And LIRR Order 316 Commuter Rail Cars
he New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority has ordered 316 commuter rail cars from Alstom at a cost of $2.3 billion – 156 for Metro-North and 160 for the Long Island Rail Road. The contract also includes an option to buy an additional 242 cars for $1.5 billion. The new M-9A passenger cars will replace 40-year-old M-3 cars, the oldest model operating on the commuter lines, and will offer a quieter, smoother and more reliable ride, officials said. They will include USB charging ports, space for wheelchairs and accessible restrooms.
The contract is expected to create nearly 300 jobs across Alstom’s two production sites. They will be assembled in Hornell with the undercarriages assembled at Alstom’s Plattsburgh facility. The propulsion system will be made by Alstom in West Miffin, Pennsylvania. Metro-North provides commuter service on the Hudson, Harlem and New Haven lines on the east side of the Hudson River and the Port Jervis and Pascack Valley lines on the west side of the river.