Member Briefing July 14, 2025
EU = 30%, Canada = 35%, Brazil = 50% … Here's A List Of Trump's Tariff Letters So Far And The Rates They Threaten
President Trump's trade policy has been unpredictable, and that continues with letters he's been writing to foreign leaders informing them of the tariff rates he intends to impose on their countries' goods on Aug. 1. The letters represent a radical approach to trade policy, with the president setting sizable tariff rates on a growing list of countries. They also do not create policy certainty; Trump himself at one point said that Aug. 1 is "not 100% firm," only to backtrack a day later. The letters also leave room for negotiation, telling countries that the new rates could be lowered if countries get rid of trade barriers, like their own tariffs or regulations.
Follow the link below for a list of the tariff rates Trump has announced in his letters as of July 13, as well as the one deal he has signed and the other he has announced. It also shows how big these trading partners are, by the value of imports the U.S. bought from them last year, as well as the U.S. trade deficit or surplus with them. A trade deficit is when the U.S. imports more from a country than it exports to them. A surplus is the reverse.
June CPI Report Forecasts Show Inflation Ticking Higher as Tariff Impact Emerges
Forecasts for June’s Consumer Price Index report to be released tomorrow show that inflation likely ticked up during the month as President Donald Trump’s new tariffs begin to push consumer prices higher. For months, investors have been bracing for signs that aggressive new trade policies will slow economic growth by raising prices and denting demand. The waiting game has also complicated the calculus at the Federal Reserve, which has held interest rates steady amid uncertainty surrounding the outlook.
Overall, economists expect that consumer prices rose 0.23% on a monthly basis and 2.6% on an annual basis, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, economists expect 0.30% monthly core inflation and 3.0% annual core inflation in June. Data in line with these forecasts would be a significant change from May, when inflation came in softer than analysts anticipated. Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financials is anticipating 0.30% growth in June for both overall and core inflation. Zooming out, he expects the impact of tariffs to peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, then lessen in 2026.
GenAI Adoption Surges Amid Supply Chain Transformations
Supply chains, the lifeblood of the modern economy, face intense pressure to increase efficiency, speed, and optimization, all while navigating constant disruptions and increased uncertainty. In 2025, challenges include uncertain tariff policies, geopolitical instability, trade disruptions, increasing demand volatility, the need for accurate forecasting, and the rising costs of raw materials and transportation, just to name a few pressing problems right now. According to a survey of manufacturing and supply chain leaders, 100% of respondents were concerned that trade wars will likely escalate in the next several years.
Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI (GenAI) and Agentic AI, is emerging as a critical tool for addressing these challenges and transforming operations. According to Logility’s Supply Chain Horizons 2025 Market Report, 97% of respondents said they use GenAI technology in their existing workflows. However, just 33% are leveraging supply chain-specific GenAI applications, hindering the 42% of respondents who said they are implementing GenAI into their supply chain management. Specifically, supply chain leaders believe that GenAI can meaningfully improve transportation/logistics, risk management, supply management and procurement, data management, and inventory optimization.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Gaza Ceasefire Talks On Verge Of Collapse, Palestinian Officials Say – BBC
- Palestinian American Beaten To Death By Israeli Settlers In The West Bank - NBC
- Two Ships Desperately Tried to Fight Off Houthi Attacks. Help Never Arrived. - WSJ
- EU Weighs Suspending Israel Ties Over Gaza Crisis - Politico
- Trump Signals Support for New Israel Attack if Iran Moves Toward Bomb - WSJ
- How a Pro Bono Project in Gaza Spiraled Into a Crisis for Boston Consulting Group - WSJ
- Yemen Faces Severe Hunger As Aid Dwindles Amid Conflict – The Guardian
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Trump Interest In Russia Sanctions Raises Ukraine Allies’ Hopes – CNBC
- A Never-Ending Supply Of Drones Has Frozen The Front Lines In Ukraine - WSJ
- Trump Says US To Supply Weapons To Ukraine Via NATO – Reuters
- Rubio Cites New Path to Ukraine Peace Talks After Meeting Russia’s Lavrov - WSJ
- North Korea Reaffirms Support For Russia's War In Ukraine - BBC
- Russia's Lavrov meets North Korea's Kim, praises ties as 'invincible brotherhood' - Reuters
- Merz Tells Trump To Stick With Europeans On Ukraine - Politico
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
- Other Headlines
- How Von der Leyen Survived The No-Confidence Vote — By The Numbers – Politico
- Rubio Meets China's Foreign Minister, Sees ‘Areas Of Potential Cooperation’ Amid Trade Tensions – France 24
- Ecuador Gang Leader 'Fito' Accepts Extradition To US - Reuters
- US Sanctions U.N. Human Rights Council Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese Who Called For Criminal Action Against Israel - Politico
- Finland Notifies UN Of Withdrawal From Landmine Ban Treaty - Reuters
- Russia Warns US, South Korea And Japan Against Forming Security Alliance Targeting North Korea - AP
- China Says Dalai Lama Succession Issue A 'Thorn' In Relations With India - Reuters
- In the Hills of Australia, Pacific Allies Are Training to Fight China – WSJ
Policy and Politics
New York Will Struggle To Absorb Trump’s Megabill Cuts
The impact of President Donald Trump’s megabill will be immediately tough for blue states like New York to withstand — and state officials warned Thursday that wrenching spending decisions will have to be considered. The state, home to one of the costliest Medicaid programs in the country, is expected to see virtually every facet of spending face the brunt of deep federal aid cuts. Blake Washington, the director of the governor’s budget office warned the state will suffer a $750 million hit this fiscal year due to cuts to the state’s Essential Plan that take effect Jan. 1. That amounts to a $3 billion annual cut when the state’s new fiscal year starts April 1.
Hochul opposes tax hikes, but will face pressure from left-flank state lawmakers as New York grapples with one of its toughest budget years since Covid. Officials previously warned no tax hike will be able to fill the hole created by the federal cuts. Democrats must now sort out how to address the federal spending reductions, which will become a multi-year concern as other aspects of the measure take effect. New York’s budget gap was previously projected to be $7.5 billion after state officials approved a $254 billion spending plan in May. Officials are still assessing how the federal tax-and-spend package will expand that hole, though some early estimates show the gap nearly doubling as a result. Democratic state lawmakers are fretting about the impact on hospitals that provide services to low-income people but acknowledge their power to offset the federal reductions is minimal.
Battle Brewing Over Hochul's Push To Build Upstate Nuclear Power Plant
State lawmakers outside New York City have started to express interest in a recent directive from the governor to build a new nuclear power plant upstate — accelerating a brewing battle between state leaders and environmentalists who disagree a new facility is the right approach to reduce the state's reliance on fossil fuels. Some upstate electeds are excited by the prospect of the governor's plan to build a new nuclear energy facility and generate at least 1 gigawatt of electricity. "If Gov. Hochul and NYSERDA is looking for somebody to raise their hand, we, the North Country, wanted to raise our hand," Assemblyman Scott Gray said. Gray sees Hochul’s order to develop a new nuclear reactor in the state as an economic opportunity for the North Country.
Environmentalists Thursday said the new plant won't become reality without a fight. "The governor is really recklessly pursuing dangerous, highly expensive technology without any legislative oversight and without any public input whatsoever," said Anne Rabe, statewide coordinator with Don't Waste NY. "It's too expensive and it's too slow when renewable energy, solar and wind and battery storage are known reasonable rates," Rabe said. "We should just move ahead with them." Critics say state funds would be better spent on solar, wind power or geothermal heat to reduce energy demand.
Read more at NY State of Politics
Pentagon To Become Largest Shareholder In Rare Earth Miner MP Materials
The Defense Department will become the largest shareholder in rare earth miner MP Materials after agreeing to buy $400 million of its preferred stock, the company said Thursday. MP Materials owns the only operational rare earth mine in the U.S. at Mountain Pass, California, about 60 miles outside Las Vegas. Proceeds from the Pentagon investment will be used to expand MP’s rare earths processing capacity and magnet production, the company said. Shares of MP Materials soared about 50% to close at $45.23. Its market capitalization grew to $7.4 billion, an increase of about $2.5 billion from the previous trading session.
“I want to be very clear, this is not a nationalization,” MP Materials CEO James Litinsky told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “We remain a thriving public company. We now have a great new partner in our economically largest shareholder, DoD, but we still control our company. We control our destiny. We’re shareholder driven.” MP Materials will build its second magnet manufacturing facility in the U.S. to serve defense and commercial customers with support from the Pentagon. The facility, whose location wasn’t disclosed, is expected to start commissioning in 2028 and will bring MP Materials rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons annually.
Political Headlines
- GOP Warning Sign In New Poll: Trump’s Voters Don’t Love His Tariffs - Politico
- Congress Revives Fight For Coverage For Wegovy And Other Weight-Loss Drugs – BenefitsPro
- Airline CEO Bryan Bedford Confirmed As Next FAA Chief - Politico
- State Dept. Layoffs Target Redundant And Non-Core Roles - AP
- US Health Department Widens Immigrant Benefit Restrictions - Reuters
- New York’s Financial Crowd Rushes to Build Anti-Mamdani War Chest - WSJ
- Columbia University On The Cusp Of A Deal With Trump Administration, Paying Millions To Unlock Federal Funding - CNN
- Progressives Pressure Top New York Democrats To Back Mamdani - Politico
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
5 Years After the Pandemic, Their Long COVID Battle Continues
People with long COVID (LC) don’t have just one chronic condition. With more than 200 possible symptoms, many overlapping, LC can show up as a variety of maladies, from gastrointestinal and cardiovascular problems to debilitating fatigue and “cog fog.” The sheer variety of physical outcomes from chronic COVID no longer surprises doctors and scientists. They now understand through years of post-pandemic study that the virus can do damage to any part of the body, from the brain and heart to the lungs and joints.
According to Mount Sinai, about 17 million adults in the U.S. had long COVID in 2024. Roughly one in five of those "long-haulers" stated that their symptoms affect their daily activities. We asked four LC warriors to share their experiences—and how they've responded with resiliency while navigating ongoing health issues. Here are their stories.
Industry News
Tariff Headlines
- Survey: CFOs Say Agility Is Best Way To Cope With Tariff Turmoil – DC Velocity
- Looming Copper Tariffs Leave Companies Scrambling: Prices Will Go Up’ - NYT
- US Customs Duties Top $100 Billion For First Time In A Fiscal Year - Reuters
- Trade Policies Bring More Uncertainty To Manufacturers - WSJ
- The EU Is Delaying Retaliatory Tariffs On U.S. Goods, In Hopes Of Reaching A Deal By Aug. 1 – The Hill
- Trump Floats Raising Baseline Tariffs To 20%—Here Are The 29 Times He’s Flip-Flopped Since ‘Liberation Day’ - Forbes
- How Tariffs Are Shifting Global Supply Chains - BBC
- Japan Faces Tight 10-Day Stretch For US Tariff Talks After Election – Nikkei Asia
- Trump Doubles Down on Using Tariffs as Tool of American Power - WSJ
- U.S. Port Operators Warn That Tariffs On Port Equipment Will Drive Up Costs Of Critical Upgrades - WSJ
- Trump’s Aluminum and Steel Tariffs Explained in Six Charts – Council on Foreign Relations
Air India Report Focuses on Pilots’ Actions and Plane’s Fuel Switches
A cut in the fuel supply to the engines caused last month’s Air India crash that killed 260 people, a preliminary report has found. The London-bound plane had barely left the runway at Ahmedabad airport when it hurtled back to earth. Everyone on board was killed, except for one passenger. According to the report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau the fuel control switches in the cockpit of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner had been flipped, starving the engines of fuel. The report does not say whether the control switches were flipped by a person or in another way.
The switches would normally be on during flight, and it is unclear how or why they were turned off, these people said. The people also said it was unclear whether the move was accidental or intentional, or whether there was an attempt to turn them back on. The Dreamliner, which entered service in 2011, is popular among the world’s airlines and is commonly used on international, long-haul routes and has had an excellent safety record. Boeing delivered the jet involved in the crash to Air India in January 2014.
Nissan To Supply Cars To Honda In US, Nikkei Says
Nissan is in talks to supply cars to Honda in the United States, which would let the struggling Japanese automaker put to use an under-utilised American plant, the Nikkei newspaper said on Friday, without citing sources. Nissan is considering making Honda pickup trucks at its Canton plant in Mississippi, which turns out models such as the Frontier, the paper said. After Nissan's talks to merge with Honda to form the world's third-largest automaker fell apart this year, the two said they would keep up an agreement to work together in areas such as electric vehicles.
Nissan reported a net loss of $4.5 billion in the financial year that ended in March, and has been badly hit by dwindling sales as it grapples with an ageing vehicle lineup. It faces debt of about 700 billion yen ($4.8 billion) coming due this year and its debt ratings have been cut to junk by all three major credit ratings firms. Like other legacy automakers, Nissan and Honda face rising competition from Chinese players and difficulties stemming from U.S.-Japan trade talks over auto tariffs.
Volvo Cars Axes 15% Of U.S. Salaried Workforce Amid Global Cutback
Automotive News reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter, that the carmaker has cut roughly 60 jobs, primarily at its headquarters in Mahwah, New Jersey. “Volvo Cars is taking measures to become a leaner, more efficient organization with a structurally lower cost base,” a Volvo spokesperson said in a statement. The reduction “will better position us to build a profitable … future for the Americas region and for Volvo Cars overall.”
The company announced in early May that “given external developments and increased uncertainties”, it is “no longer providing financial guidance for 2025 and 2026.” The Sweden-based automaker intends to “complete the structural changes during the autumn of 2025,” as it is “firm on its ambition of becoming a fully electric car company.” The carmaker had announced in May plans to cut 3,000 jobs as part of its recently launched “cost and cash action plan.”
Intel Layoffs Surpass 1,600 Across US
Intel Corp. is laying off approximately 1,666 employees across four states this month as part of a company-wide restructuring effort to reduce costs and simplify operations. The job cuts, which begin to take effect July 11, will affect hundreds that work at or report to Intel in California, Oregon, Texas and Arizona, according to recent Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification filings. One of CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s priorities since taking over in March has been to refocus Intel’s core products for a new era of computing shaped by artificial intelligence and reasoning models.
About half of those affected — roughly 855 — are based out of Intel’s offices and facilities in Santa Clara and Folsom, California. The company is also cutting 529 employees across its four campuses in or near Hillsboro, Oregon, considered to be the heart of the company’s research and development operations. Additionally, Intel has given recent layoff notices to 172 workers in Chandler, Arizona and 110 in Austin, Texas, according to WARN filings as of July 11. Intel, known for its personal computer processors, has lagged behind competitors AMD and Nvidia in the evolving semiconductor market. It reported a net loss of $18.8 billion for 2024, driven in part by its struggles to transition to smaller, more efficient chip designs.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
F-22 Raptors Could Be First Combat Jets to Control Loyal Drone Wingmen
The US Air Force is set to upgrade its F-22 Raptors to control unmanned aerial systems midflight, positioning it to become the first operational combat jet to team up with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones. Beginning in 2026, Raptors will get tablet-based control systems and undergo other relevant modifications to enable secure in-cockpit drone control. The upgrade will cover 142 combat-coded F-22s from the air force’s 185-jet fleet, focusing on those maintained for frontline missions.
Each upgrade kit costs about $86,000, with $12.2 million in hardware covered by the service’s $15 million request for fiscal 2026. Pilots are expected to use the Intra-Flight Data Link, a jam-resistant communication system already active across the F-22 fleet, to manage drone teams and coordinate missions in flight. Lockheed Martin has already demonstrated tablet-based drone control inside F-22 and F-35 cockpits, but concerns about pilot workload in single-seat fighters are pushing the air force to explore simpler or AI-assisted control setups.
RealSense Spins Out From Intel, Secures $50 Million To Drive AI Vision In Robotics
Computer vision technology firm RealSense said on Friday it has completed its spinout from Intel Corp (INTC.O), opens new tab and secured $50 million in early-stage funding to accelerate expansion into the rapidly growing robotics sector. The company develops cameras that enable machines and devices to perceive the world in three dimensions, allowing them to "see" depth, interpret their surroundings, and interact with their environment.
The new funding will be used to scale up manufacturing and expand global go-to-market operations. Its newest camera, the D555, can transmit power and data via a single cable and features built-in AI capabilities, enabling robots and security systems to quickly understand their surroundings. The company says its depth cameras are embedded in 60% of the world's autonomous mobile robots and humanoids, with clients including China's Unitree Robotics and Switzerland's ANYbotics. In addition to robotics, RealSense is expanding into security systems that use facial recognition, leveraging its own software tools for mapping environments and identifying faces.
Report: Kraft Heinz Planning Split
Ten years after Pittsburgh-based food company H.J. Heinz Co. merged with Illinois-based Kraft Foods, the company that deal created — Kraft Heinz — is considering splitting up, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The company is looking to spin off a chunk of its grocery business into a new entity that could be worth $20 billion. That would leave a company housing goods such as sauces and spreads like Heinz’s namesake ketchup and Dijon mustard brand Grey Poupon.
The two companies merged in 2015 under the direction of American billionaire investor Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway and Brazilian private investment firm 3G Capital. The merger made Kraft Heinz Co. the third-largest food and beverage company in North America, based on revenue. Demand for some of Kraft Heinz’s core products—from Lunchables to Capri Sun, macaroni and cheese and mayonnaise—has weakened. Kraft Heinz has been working to reshuffle its portfolio and invest in healthier products more in line with consumers’ changing preferences, and the company recently announced plans to remove artificial dyes from its U.S. products.
Nutella-Maker Ferrero To Gobble Up Cereal Giant Kellogg For $3.1 Billion
American cereal giant Kellogg and Italian candy giant Ferrero have struck a sweet deal worth $3.1 billion. Ferrero, the family-owned maker of Nutella, has agreed to buy the iconic American maker of Froot Loops and Frosted Flakes, combining two of the world's most storied sweet brands. Ferrero was founded in Italy nearly 80 years ago and has lately been on a quest to expand its American reach. The company has bought ice cream company Wells Enterprises, known for Blue Bunny and Halo Top brands, in addition to Nestle's American chocolate business, which includes Butterfinger and Raisinets.
Rapidly changing consumer habits are the context for this deal, as U.S. shoppers are increasingly either looking to store-brand snacks and cereals in search of a deal or reaching for heathier choices. Kellogg is also working to phase out artificial dyes from its products. The company in May reported a decline in sales and lowered its financial forecast for the year. Its new deal with Ferrero will face reviews by Kellogg's shareholders as well as federal regulators.