Member Briefing July 15, 2025
US Manufacturers Are Stuck In A Rut Despite Subsidies From Biden And Protection From Trump
Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much, but they share a conviction that the government should help American manufacturers, one way or another. Democratic President Joe Biden handed out subsidies to chipmakers and electric vehicle manufacturers. Republican President Donald Trump is building a wall of import taxes — tariffs — around the U.S. economy to protect domestic industry from foreign competition.
Big economic factors contributed to the slowdown: A surge in inflation, arising from the unexpectedly strong economic recovery from COVID-19, raised factory expenses and prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs added to the strain. Biden’s tax incentives for semiconductor and clean energy production triggered a factory-building boom – investment in manufacturing facilities more than tripled from April 2021 through October 2024 – that seemed to herald a coming surge in factory production and hiring. Eventually anyway. But the factory investment spree has faded. Now, predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, “manufacturing production will continue to flatline.”
Nearly One-Third Of Major U.S. Housing Markets Now See Falling Home Prices
Overinflated home prices, high mortgage rates, rising supply and falling demand are all joining forces to cool the nation’s housing market. Annual home price growth in June was just 1.3%, down from 1.6% growth in May and the slowest rate in two years, according to ICE, a mortgage technology firm. Nearly one-third of the largest 100 markets are now showing annual price declines of at least a full percentage point from recent highs, and the trend suggests more markets will do the same. Single-family home prices were up 1.6%, while condominium prices were down 1.4% nationally.
Inventory has been rising steadily over the past year, up 29% in June compared with the same month last year. The gains, however, began slowing this past spring. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered in the high 6% range for most of this year, double what it was during the early days of the pandemic, when home prices initially took off. Regionally, prices are still seeing big gains in the Northeast and Midwest. They are softening in the South and West. Cape Coral, Florida, saw the biggest decline, with prices down just over 9%. Austin, Texas, and Tampa, Florida, are also seeing price declines, as are seven of the 10 major markets in California.
WSJ Survey: Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth
Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters. The reason: The Journal’s previous survey was conducted at the height of the president’s threats to impose eye-watering tariffs on America’s biggest trading partners. He paused some of the tariffs shortly thereafter.
Although economists’ outlook improved slightly from the last survey, they still are relatively downbeat—most likely because of the persistence of trade uncertainty and muted growth to date. On average, they expect gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to grow 1% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That is up from an April forecast of 0.8%, but just half of what they expected in January. They see growth rebounding to 1.9% in 2026, little changed from prior surveys.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Gaza Officials Say Children Killed In Strike As Israeli Military Admits 'Error' – BBC
- Israeli Missile Hits Gaza Children Collecting Water, IDF Blames Malfunction - Reuters
- Iran's Army Makes New Threat: "War for 10 Years" - Newsweek
- Clashes Between Druze And Bedouin In Southern Syria Kill At Least 30 - BBC
- Israel Strikes Military Tanks In Southern Syria, Where Government Forces Clash With Druze Militias - AP
- Iran and China Challenge US as Alliance Grows - Newsweek
- Gaza Documentary Shown On BBC Breached Accuracy Guideline, Review Finds - Reuters
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
- Ukraine
- Trump Meets Nato Chief Mark Rutte At White House – CNBC
- Trump Raises Pressure on Russia With Tariff Threat, Ukraine Weapons Deal - WSJ
- In His Words: Trump’s Rhetoric About Zelenskyy And Putin Has Evolved - AP
- Patriot System Will Be Sent to Ukraine, Trump Says - WSJ
- Ukraine Fields Counter-Drone Rifle Rounds, Disrupting Russian Offensive - Forbes
- US Envoy Meets With Zelensky After Trump Says Patriot Missiles Will Be Sent To Ukraine
- What The War In Ukraine Reveals About The Future Of Space Warfare - Forbes
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Argentina Inflation Ticks Up Less Than Expected In June – Reuters
- How China’s Military Is Flexing Its Power in the Pacific - WSJ
- Macron Promises Billions More For French Defense Budget - Politico
- Britain, Czech Republic To Work Together On Small Nuclear Plants - Reuters
- Italy And Greece Sound The Alarm Over Libya. But Allies Aren’t Rushing To Help. - Politico
- Haiti Gang Violence Claims 5,000 Lives In Less Than A Year, UN Report - Reuters
- Top Photos Of Thrilling Moments And Close Calls At Spain’s San Fermín Bull-Running Festival - AP
- French Military Pigeons Race In Tribute To Feathered World War Heroes – WSJ
Policy and Politics
Senate GOP Lawmakers Consider Trump’s Request To Claw Back $9.4 Billion In Spending
Senate Republicans will test the popularity of Department of Government Efficiency spending cuts this week by aiming to pass President Donald Trump’s request to claw back $9.4 billion in public media and foreign aid spending. Trump’s Republican administration is employing a rarely used tool that allows the president to transmit a request to cancel previously approved funding authority. The request triggers a 45-day clock under which the funds are frozen. If Congress fails to act within that period, then the spending stands. That clock expires Friday. The House has already approved Trump’s request on a mostly party line 214-212 vote.
The Senate has little time to spare to beat the deadline for the president’s signature. Another House vote will be needed if senators amend the legislation, adding more uncertainty to the outcome. Spending bills before the 100-member Senate almost always need some bipartisan buy-in to pass. That’s because the bills need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and advance. But this week’s effort is different. Congress set up a process back when Republican Richard Nixon was president for speedily considering a request to claw back previously approved spending authority. Under those procedures, it takes only a simple Senate majority to advance the president’s request to a final vote.
Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI Granted Up To $200 Million For AI Work From Defense Department
The U.S. Department of Defense on Monday said it’s granting contract awards of up to $200 million for artificial intelligence development at Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI. The DoD’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office said the awards will help the agency accelerate its adoption of “advanced AI capabilities to address critical national security challenges.” The companies will work to develop AI agents across several mission areas at the agency. “The adoption of AI is transforming the Department’s ability to support our warfighters and maintain strategic advantage over our adversaries,” Doug Matty, the DoD’s chief digital and AI officer, said in a release.
Elon Musk’s xAI also announced Grok for Government on Monday, which is a suite of products that make the company’s models available to U.S. government customers. The products are available through the General Services Administration (GSA) schedule, which allows federal government departments, agencies, or offices to purchase them, according to a post on X. OpenAI was previously awarded a year-long $200 million contract from the DoD in 2024, shortly after it said it would collaborate with defense technology startup Anduril to deploy advanced AI systems for “national security missions.” In June, the company launched OpenAI for Government for U.S. federal, state, and local government workers.
New Metro-North President Says Railroad Is Studying Spur At Stewart
he idea of constructing a rail spur between New York Stewart International Airport near Newburgh and Salisbury Mills on the Port Jervis Metro-North line has been floated from time to time in recent years. Orange County’s representative to the MTA Board, Jim O’Donnell, said that is encouraging to hear. “That would be a great help to the airport so it’s good to hear that the president of Metro-North has been studying it, but I they have been studying it for 15 or 20 years,” he said.
Many believe a rail link from Stewart directly into Manhattan would help grow passenger service at the Mid-Hudson airport.But now the new president of the railroad, Justin Vonashek, told Mid-Hudson News a study is currently underway.
Political Headlines
- Trump's Approval Rating Holds As Immigration Support Dips – Newsweek
- US Supreme Court Clears Way For Trump To Gut Education Department - Reuters
- Andrew Cuomo To Run As Independent In NYC Mayor’s Race, With A Proposal - NewsNation
- Democrats Find Reasons For Hope And Fear Six Months Into Trump 2.0 – The Hill
- Trump’s Megabill Is Creating A Budget Nightmare For States Including New York - Politico
- Powell Asks Inspector General To Review $2.5 Billion Renovation After Trump Blasts Fed Project - CNBC
- Trump ‘TACO’ Tracker: Here Are The President’s 28 Tariff Flip-Flops - Forbes
- Hochul Raises Over $11.8M In First Half Of 2025 – The Hill
- UK To Roll Out Red Carpet For Second Trump State Visit – France 24
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Ozempic For Addiction: How An Elite Rehab Center Is Using GLP-1s To ‘Obliterate’ All Kinds Of Cravings
In recent months, doctors at Caron Treatment Centers, an elite nonprofit rehab facility, have begun prescribing semaglutide to patients not to address obesity or diabetes but to help treat the addictions that brought them here in the first place. “I don’t think of this as doing anything wild west,” said Steven Klein, one of the staff physicians who has pioneered the practice of prescribing GLP-1s, as the class of medications is known, as a treatment for addiction. “We’re using something off-label under the umbrella of addiction, whether that be food, sex, alcohol, or opioids.”
Despite Klein’s attempts to downplay the program, Caron is, without a doubt, in uncharted territory. While the medications show significant promise as addiction treatments, only a handful of clinical trials are underway to measure their ability to reduce substance use. Several are unlikely to publish results within the next two years. In interviews, experts told STAT of a wide array of potential uses or, in some cases, anecdotes of GLP-1s appearing to transform people’s addictive relationships with tobacco, nail-biting, drinking, gambling, drugs, sex, shopping, and more.
Industry News
Trade Wars
- Trump To Russia: 100% ‘Secondary’ Tariffs If No Deal On Ukraine – SCMP
- EU Trade Chief to Contact U.S. Officials After 30% Tariff Threat - WSJ
- EU Trade Ministers Say Trump’s 30% Tariffs Are “Absolutely Unacceptable” - AP
- Mexico Expects US Trade Deal Shortly – Freight Waves
- Canada's Carney Talked Tough On Trump - Now Some Say He's Backing Down - BBC
- White House Adviser Says Trade Talks With EU, Canada And Mexico Are Ongoing - Reuters
- Malaysia Tightens Rules on Movement of U.S.-Made AI Chips - WSJ
- Manufacturers Plead For US Tariff Clarity Before Copper Stockpiles Dwindle – Australian Financial Review
- The Race Is On to Build U.S. Copper Mines After Trump Pledges Higher Tariffs - WSJ
- Rio Tinto Plans to Ramp Up U.S. Copper Investments in Response to Tariff Policies – NAI
China’s Exports Beat Expectations After Trade Truce With U.S.
China’s exports grew at a faster clip in June, topping market expectations as trade tensions with the U.S. eased following a round of bilateral talks. Outbound shipments rose 5.8% in June from a year earlier, China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday. The figure was better than many economists had predicted and represented an improvement from the 4.8% year-over-year increase in May.
Shipments to the U.S., however, fell by 16.1% in June compared with a year earlier, as hefty tariffs and uncertainty around the global tariff environment more generally stifled trade between the world’s two largest economies. Plenty of question marks remain over U.S.-China trade ties, even after the recent shift in tone. The truce agreed in London set a 90-day grace period for the tariff rollback, implying that the two sides have until Aug. 12 to reach a permanent deal.
Air India Chief Says Preliminary Crash Report Raises Fresh Questions
Air India’s chief executive urged staff to avoid drawing premature conclusions about what caused one of the airline’s Boeing BA 1.60%increase; green up pointing triangle jets to crash last month, after a preliminary investigation ruled out mechanical or maintenance issues, turning attention to the pilots’ actions. Campbell Wilson told staff that the probe into the crash was “far from over,” according to an internal memo, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, in which he set out some of the findings of a report issued by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau at the end of last week.
The AAIB didn’t reach any final conclusions about what factors led to the crash, or why the fuel switches might have been turned off. The report didn’t go into whether the switches were turned off accidentally or intentionally. There was apparent confusion in the cockpit between the pilots about the fuel switches, the report said. “In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff,” the report said. “The other pilot responded that he did not do so.”
Council Member Balchem Looks To Expand Operations In Orange County
Balchem, a company that develops and manufactures ingredients and products for the nutritional, food, pharmaceutical, animal health, plant nutrition and industrial markets, is looking to relocate from its Slate Hill facility in Orange County to a much larger operation in a new 70,000 square foot building in the nearby Town of Wallkill. The more than $36 million project is seeking financial incentives from the County Industrial Development Agency.
IDA Executive Director Bill Fioravanti said the requested 15-year payment-in-lieu-of-taxes agreement, sales tax exemption on materials, and mortgage tax recording fee exemption are well worth retaining the company locally. “We are trying to attract strategic industries like R&D, life sciences and biotech, but we can’t forget the importance of retaining companies in those spaces who are already mainstays here in the county,” he said. “So, we think this an important company to retain and keep in Orange County and help them grow as well.”
Panasonic $4 Billion EV Battery Factory In Kansas
The grand opening of the largest electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant in the United States happens Today in De Soto, Kansas. Panasonic is investing $4 billion and already has hired approximately 1,000 staff at the plant. The De Soto plant is the largest economic development project in company history — and Kansas history. An estimated $2.5 billion in new economic activity in Kansas will be generated annually by the project.
The project is expected to create up to 4,000 new jobs created by suppliers and community businesses and 16,500 construction jobs, as cited in an independent Wichita State University economic impact study. The 300-acre manufacturing plant, which is opening almost three years to the date of the initial announcement, is located in De Soto’s Astra Enterprise Park. The facility will operate and produce approximately 66 lithium-ion batteries per second.
Import Cargo Levels Expected to Rebound in July
After a double-digit drop in late spring, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to rebound this month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on July 9. However, the report expects the volume to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect. U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million TEUs in May, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 11.8% from April and down 6.4% year-over-year. It was also the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in May 2024.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for June, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% year-over-year. Further forecasts are as follows:
- July is expected to be 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1%
- August is expected to be 2.08 million TEU, down 10.4%.
- September is expected to be at 1.82 million TEU, down 19.9% year-over-year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023.
- October is expected to be at 1.81 million TEU, down 19.2%.
- November is expected to be 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3% for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023.
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Strong US Defense Spending Draws Investors To Space Startups, Report Says
Space startups continued to draw investor dollars in the April-June period, making it the second strongest quarter on record for funding, as increased U.S. defense spending is expected to boost the sector's prospects, an industry report showed on Monday. Global investments in startups, ranging from early stage to growth stage, surged to $3.1 billion in the quarter ended June 30 from $2 billion in the first three months of the year, according to VC firm Seraphim Space's report.
Concerns over potential spending cuts under the Trump administration have done little to dampen funding momentum, as major defense initiatives - most notably the Golden Dome missile defense program - fuel investment and bolster optimism across the sector. "Given today's geopolitical climate, the pull from defense is strong, and founders are responding," Seraphim Space investment analyst Lucas Bishop said. Much of this momentum is being driven by capital-intensive areas such as rocket launches, space infrastructure, and satellite manufacturing and operations, Seraphim Space said in its report.
EV Market Slowed In Q2, Led By Another Tesla Delivery Decline
Cox Automotive analysts estimated that Q2 EV sales fell 6% YoY, and S&P Global Mobility cited “stalled conditions for BEV demand” in its projection that battery-electric vehicle sales would make up about 7% of the new-vehicle market in June—down from over 8% in January. Meanwhile, numerous major automakers, including US EV market leader Tesla, reported YoY EV sales declines in Q2.
The EV market is likely poised for even more turbulence in the coming months, now that President Donald Trump has signed into law the “Big Beautiful Bill” that will axe the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV purchases beginning Sept. 30.
Man In Custody After Barricading Himself Inside Sterling Heights Stellantis Plant
According to Stellantis, a man is in custody after police say he barricaded himself inside an assembly plant in Sterling Heights, Michigan on Saturday, July 12. In a written statement, Stellantis said its employees were evacuated and that first responders were on the scene. The plant is located at 83111 Van Dyke Ave. “Employees will be offered counseling when production resumes,” Stellantis wrote.
CBS News Detroit reports that, according to police, the man works at the facility, but few details about the incident have been shared. The plant wasn’t operating on Saturday and there was a “skeleton crew” of workers, according to the automaker.