Member Briefing July 30, 2025
US Goods Trade Deficit Shrinks In Likely Boost To Second-Quarter GDP
The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter. The goods trade gap narrowed 10.8% to $86.0 billion last month, the lowest level since September 2023, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the goods trade deficit would rise to $98.20 billion. Imports of goods decreased $11.5 billion, or 4.2%, to $264.2 billion, the lowest level since March 2024. The decline was led by a 12.4% plunge in consumer goods imports.
Industrial supplies imports, which include crude oil and non-monetary gold, slumped 5.5%. Imports of foods, feeds and beverages fell 1.1%, while those of motor vehicles decreased 2.0%. But capital goods imports rose 0.6%. Goods exports slipped $1.1 billion, or 0.6%, to $178.2 billion. They were held back by an 8.1% drop in exports of industrial supplies. But exports of capital goods shot up 4.7%, while shipments of foods, feeds and beverages increased 4.0%. Shipments of consumer goods advanced 1.5%. The government is scheduled to publish its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. Many economists, including those at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, raised their estimates sharply. The Atlanta Federal Reserve now expects GDP to have increased at a 2.9% rate, up from its previous 2.4% forecast.
JOLTS: Job Openings Fall to 7.4 Million
The JOLTS report offered the latest signs of tepid demand for labor. Job openings declined to 7.4 million in June, which left the number of job openings per unemployed worker little changed over the past year at 1.08. But the current balance in the jobs market remains delicate. Persistently low churn also leaves the labor market looking more fragile than headline numbers suggest. The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low of 3.3% in June. Despite the reluctance to bring on new workers, net employment gains have held up thanks to layoffs remaining low. The layoff rate was unchanged at 1.0%, keeping it well below its pre-pandemic average of 1.2%.
There were 415,000 job openings in manufacturing, down from 425,000 in May and 452,000 in June of 2024.
Amid low layoffs, firms have been relying on attrition to trim headcount and labor costs. The quit rate has risen up since late last year but is still far from its highs. In June, the quit rate was unchanged from a downwardly revised 2.0% in May. The anemic rebound since the end of last year seems to reflect more necessity than opportunity. After the flurry of job switching a couple of years ago, some employees are ripe to be moving on but are changing employers without the typical bump that comes with a voluntary job switch. With employees generally staying put, a further slowing in activity risks a rise in layoffs.
IMF Edges 2025 Growth Forecast Slightly Higher, Warns Tariff Risks Still Dog Outlook
The IMF on Tuesday edged its global growth forecast slightly higher for 2025 and 2026 given stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate to 17.3% from 24.4%. The IMF raised its global forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% in 2026, below the 3.3% growth it had projected for both years in January, and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7%.
- It said global headline inflation was expected to fall to 4.2% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2026, but noted that inflation would likely remain above target in the United States as tariffs passed through to U.S. consumers in the second half of the year.
- U.S. growth was expected to reach 1.9% in 2025, up 0.1 percentage point from April's outlook, edging up to 2% in 2026. A new U.S. tax cut and spending law was expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by 1.5 percentage points, with tariff revenues offsetting that by about half, the IMF said.
- It lifted its forecast for the euro area by 0.2 percentage point to 1.0% in 2025, and left the 2026 forecast unchanged at 1.2%. The IMF said the upward revision reflected a historically large surge in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the United States; without it, the revision would have been half as big.
- China's outlook got a bigger upgrade of 0.8 percentage point, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year, and the significant reduction in U.S.-China tariffs after Washington and Beijing declared a temporary truce. The IMF increased its forecast for Chinese growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2%.
- Overall, growth is expected to reach 4.1% in emerging markets and developing economies in 2025, and 4.0% in 2026, it said.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- UN Conference Backs Two-State Solution, Calls On Israel To Commit To A Palestinian State – AP
- Gaza Food Crisis Is ‘Worst-Case Scenario,’ Say Experts – The Hill
- UK To Recognize Palestinian Statehood In September — Unless Israel Changes Course - Politico
- Frustration, Gaza Alarm Drove Macron To Go It Alone On Palestine Recognition - Reuters
- Iran Says US Plotted to Overthrow Government - Newsweek
- Syria Sets September Date For Selection Of New Transitional Parliament – France 24
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russian Air Strikes Kill 19 In Southeastern Ukraine – Reuters
- Russian Strikes Kill 25 As Prison And Hospital Hit, Ukraine Says - BBC
- Trump Gives Russia 10 Days To Reach Ceasefire Agreement With Ukraine — Or Else Face Secondary Sanctions - CBS
- Russia Hit by Second Major Cyberattack in Two Days - Newsweek
- Russia's Oil Shipments Have Quietly Slumped Over the Past Year - Bloomberg
- Freed From Russian Prisons, Ukrainian Soldiers Lean Into Counseling To Rebuild Their Lives - AP
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Tsunami Waves Reach Hawaii After Huge Quake Rattles Russia's Far East - Reuters
- Thai Army Accuses Cambodia Of Violating Truce As Clashes Resume – France 24
- Colombia Ex-President Uribe Guilty Of Abuse Of Process, Bribery Of Public Official – Reuters
- CK Hutchison Seeks to Include Chinese Investor in Panama Port Deal - WSJ
- China Reveals Major Boost to Aircraft-Carrier Force - Newsweek
- Thailand-Cambodia Border Calm As Military Commanders Hold Talks - Reuters
- A Buddhist Monk’s Alleged Indulgence in Money and Sex Transfixes China - WSJ
- Haiti To Send 400 Police Officers To Brazil For Training As Gangs Seize More Territory - AP
- Turkey, The Balkans Battle Wildfires As Mediterranean Sees Record-Breaking Heat Waves – France 24
Policy and Politics
EPA Proposing To Repeal Climate ‘Endangerment Finding’
President Donald Trump’s administration on Tuesday proposed revoking a scientific finding that has long been the central basis for U.S. action to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and fight climate change. The proposed Environmental Protection Agency rule rescinds a 2009 declaration that determined that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare. The “endangerment finding” is the legal underpinning of a host of climate regulations under the Clean Air Act for motor vehicles, power plants and other pollution sources that are heating the planet.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called for a rewrite of the endangerment finding in March as part of a series of environmental rollbacks announced at the same time in what Zeldin said was “the greatest day of deregulation in American history.” A total of 31 key environmental rules on topics from clean air to clean water and climate change would be rolled back or repealed under Zeldin’s plan. Conservatives and some congressional Republicans hailed the initial plan, calling it a way to undo economically damaging rules to regulate greenhouse gases. But environmental groups, legal experts and Democrats said any attempt to repeal or roll back the endangerment finding would be an uphill task with slim chance of success. The finding came two years after a 2007 Supreme Court ruling holding that the EPA has authority to regulate greenhouse gases as air pollutants under the Clean Air Act.
Read more at The Seattle Times
Reindustrializing for Security: Why America’s Defense Industrial Base Must Come First
In the 2010s, the US lost its position as the global manufacturing leader to China. Since then, American manufacturing capacity has declined significantly while China’s has surged. This reversal has broken a decades-long cycle of prosperity and peace forged in the ashes of two world wars. During World War II, it was America’s industrial might that gave its military a critical edge and laid the foundation for generations of economic growth and global stability. Today, this dynamic has flipped: the Department of Defense must help seed a revitalization of American manufacturing through innovation and targeted investment. Policymakers are now debating how to fix the defense industrial base, and how to pay for it.
While most concerns around reindustrialization focus on massive facilities for things like semiconductors or batteries, defense manufacturing also depends on smaller, specialized operations. These “hidden champions,” often occupying less than 50,000 square feet, can supply components and logistical support to major players like Lockheed Martin and RTX, as well as to a new generation of innovative firms. They also serve as fast-moving labs for cutting-edge manufacturing techniques.
Trump Urgently Wants Jerome Powell To Cut Interest Rates. That Won't Happen Today, Economists Say.
During a meeting last week between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the president sought to underscore what he said is a "very simple" request: "Interest rates have to come down." That wish isn't likely to be granted when the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on today. Economists put the probability of the central bank holding rates steady at 96%, according to FactSet. The Fed has maintained its benchmark rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December 2024, prior to Mr. Trump's second-term inauguration in January, as policy makers try to douse the flickering embers of inflation. Inflation many experts believe the Fed helped spark.
Mr. Trump has for months derided Powell over the Fed's caution in lowering borrowing costs, which experts say would boost economic growth but could cause consumer prices to flare. Upping the pressure, Trump administration officials also have said the Fed chair's handline of a building renovation at the Fed could be grounds for firing. Despite such criticism, Powell has maintained his stance that no immediate rate cuts are necessary given that the economy remains solid. The Fed chair, who Mr. Trump nominated to head the central bank in 2017, has also suggested he wants to keep its powder dry in case the Trump administration's steep new tariffs cause inflation to reignite.
Political Headlines
- Manhattan Shooter Who Killed Four Likely Targeted NFL Offices, Mayor Adams Says – Forbes
- A Guide To The Federal Government’s Numerous Legal Fights With NY – City & State
- Wiley Nickel Suspends NC Senate Bid, Endorses Cooper – The Hill
- UCLA To Pay $6.45 Million To Settle Suit By Jewish Students Over Pro-Palestinian Protests – LA Times
- Nominations Pileup Has Senate Republicans Threatening Rules Changes - Politico
- Democrats Turn Routine Trump Nominees Into Pitched Partisan Battles – The Hill
- Bessent, Warsh, Hassett Are The Leading Contenders To Get Fed Chair Job, CNBC Survey Finds - CNBC
- Hawley Introduces Bill To Provide $600 Tariff Rebates To Adults And Children – The Hill
- Dozens Of N.Y. Legal Cannabis Dispensaries Will Have To Shut Down Due To Proximity Error, State Says – NY State Of Politics
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Menopause Support In The Workplace Growing, Yet Still Face Significant Hurdles
Employers are slowly beginning to understand the impact that menopause can have on worker wellbeing and productivity. “The workplace has become more welcoming in baby steps,” according to Bonafide Health. “Women are reporting subtle advancements and more help from employers for their menopause symptoms.” However, struggles in the workplace have remained consistent, according to the latest State of Menopause Study from the women’s health care company:
- More than 1 in 10 employed respondents report that their employer offers accommodations for their symptoms, which is an increase of 4 percentage points over 2024.
- Although half of women have no plans to change their work arrangements, three-quarters of women aged 40 to 49 report their symptoms have had a negative impact on at least one work-related aspect of their life
- Four in 10 women overall and 46% of those aged 40 to 49 say that perimenopause (the transitional phase leading up to menopause) or menopause symptoms have negatively affected their ambition.
Although data indicate that more specialized health care support is needed, nearly one-third of women don’t feel confident in their ability to advocate for themselves in a health care setting. Four in 10 women have gotten conflicting advice on symptom management from health care professionals, and 22% of those aged 40 to 49 had a health care provider incorrectly attribute their perimenopause symptoms to anxiety.
Industry News
Trade Wars
- Trump’s New Trade Order Is Fragile – WSJ
- This ‘Boring’ Tariff Strategy Can Make A Huge Difference, Experts Say – Manufacturing Dive
- Trump Keeps Canada Guessing As Trade Deadline Looms - Politico
- China And US May Work To Extend Latest Tariff Deadline, Chinese Official Says - AP
- China, US Finish Stockholm Trade Talks With Agreement To Extend Tariff Pause - SCMP
- Trump’s $750 Billion Deal for U.S. Energy Collides With Market Reality - WSJ
- US Companies Up Against 'Nightmare' Tariff Wall - BBC
- Cargo Surge Amid Tariff Turmoil Drives The Port Of Savannah To Its 2nd Busiest Year - AP
- Turmp’s Trade Deals, A Summary to Date – IndustryWeek
Rising Expectations Lift Consumer Confidence in July
Consumer confidence came in better than expected in July as Americans' outlook on the economy improved. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to a reading of 97.2 in July from June’s upwardly revised reading of 95.2, according to new data released Tuesday. Economists polled by FactSet were expecting the index to rise to a reading of 95.5. “In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board. The gain in confidence was driven by consumers over 35 years old, and was widespread across all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 a year.
In July, people’s outlook on stock prices continued to recover from April’s 16 month-low, with roughly 48% of survey respondents expecting stock prices to increase in the next 12 months. The share of respondents expecting higher interest rates fell to 53% from 57.1% in June, while more people are expecting interest rates to come down. That said, economic concerns continue to abound. Tariffs remain top of mind, Guichard added. People are also still worried about the labor market. Consumers’ appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021, Guichard said.
Gartner Survey: Tariffs and Disruptive Tech Top Concern in Q2
The top-ranking emerging risks for 2025 are the escalating tariff and trade war, according to Gartner, Inc. Quarterly Emerging Risk Report. The series captures enterprise risk management (ERM) leaders’, risk management professionals’, auditors’, and senior executives’ views on emerging risks or over-the-horizon risk. “The top five emerging risks in Q2 point to two broad themes for enterprises: A volatile low-growth macroeconomic environment, and a disruptive new technology that poses significant compliance risks rapidly growing in mainstream adoption,” said Gamika Takkar, director, research, in the Gartner risk and audit practice, in a statement.
AI-related information governance-driven risks, moved from the fifth most cited spot in 1Q25 to the fourth rank in Q2, and Shadow AI moved into the top 5 as the popularity and ease-of-access to public AI tools soars, and organizations face challenges in effectively monitoring its use. “Risk leaders need to ensure their organizations are prepared for potential disruption to supply chains and increases to the cost of doing business in a global market,” said Takkar. “These impacts have the potential to be more disruptive at a time of slowing global economic growth.”
Read more at Material Handling & Logistics
Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern to Create America’s First Transcontinental Railroad
The $85 billion merger deal between Union Pacific UNP 2.00%increase; green up pointing triangle and Norfolk Southern NSC 1.43%increase; green up pointing triangle announced Tuesday joins 50,000 miles of railroad tracks that span from the Jersey shore to the ports in California. The union would create a single company controlling coast-to-coast rail shipments for the first time in U.S. history—a feat Union Pacific says would speed up shipping and make supply chains more efficient. The first transcontinental railway was patched together in 1869, when a ceremonial “golden spike” was driven into the final rail in Utah connecting two companies’ tracks—but that version depended on more than one operator. Today, Amtrak carries passengers from coast to coast but operates mostly on tracks owned by freight railroads.
Historically, though, rail tie-ups have spawned massive traffic snarls. A slew of train-traffic jams—and some crashes—in the aftermath of mergers in the late 1990s and early 2000s prompted regulators to put the brakes on such deals. It’s a question that regulators will now closely examine as they assess the deal for approval. If the merger is allowed to proceed, executives at Union Pacific say a transcontinental railroad could improve rail service, provide shippers with a one-stop shop, and increase port access for local manufacturers and farmers looking to export their goods.
Boeing's 2Q Loss Narrows And Revenue Rises, Topping Wall Street's Expectations
Boeing's second-quarter loss narrowed and revenue improved as the aircraft manufacturer delivered more commercial planes in the period. Boeing Co. lost $611 million, or 92 cents per share, for the three months ended June 30. A year earlier it lost $1.44 billion, or $2.33 per share. Adjusting for one-time gains, Boeing lost $1.24 per share. This was better than the loss of $1.54 per share that analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research expected. Revenue climbed to $22.75 billion from $16.87 billion, mostly due to 150 commercial deliveries compared with 92 deliveries in the prior-year period.
“Our fundamental changes to strengthen safety and quality are producing improved results as we stabilize our operations and deliver higher quality airplanes, products and services to our customers,” CEO Kelly Ortberg said in a statement. “As we look to the second half of the year, we remain focused on restoring trust and making continued progress in our recovery while operating in a dynamic global environment.”
Sweden's EQT to Buy Out Japan's Fujitec In All-Share $2.7bn Deal
investment fund EQT has decided to acquire Japanese elevator maker Fujitec through a tender offer worth more than 400 billion yen ($2.6 billion), the Nikkei business daily reported on Tuesday. EQT's tender offer price is likely to be in the upper 5,000 yen range, compared with the closing price of 6,205 yen on Tuesday, the Nikkei said. Fujitec has been the target of activist investors, notably Hong Kong-based Oasis Management, which is currently its top shareholder with a stake of about 30%.
Fujitec is the 5th largest elevator company in the world, with $1.5B in revenue. The company 0perates in 20 countries with 18 offices in North America and employs over 10,000 people worldwide and over 700 in North America. Fujitec has 11 manufacturing facilities producing elevator controllers and machines, escalators, and moving walkways.
Merck to Lay Off Workers and Narrows Guidance as Earnings Fall
Merck & Co. said it is embarking on a multi-year cost-savings plan, which includes cuts to its workforce and real-estate footprint, as it looks to redirect resources toward new product launches. The plan comes as the drug company on Tuesday logged lower revenue and sales in its latest quarter and narrowed its full-year guidance. The company said it expects the plan to result in $3 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2027, which it plans to reinvest to support new products as well as its pipeline across multiple therapeutic areas. As part of the cost-savings plan, Merck expects to eliminate certain administrative, sales and research-and-development positions.
“Today, we announced a multiyear optimization initiative that will redirect investment and resources from more mature areas of our business to our burgeoning array of new growth drivers, further enable the transformation of our portfolio, and drive our next chapter of productive, innovation-driven growth,” Chief Executive Robert Davis said. In its latest quarter, the company logged a profit of $4.43 billion, or $1.76 a share, compared with $5.46 billion, or $2.14 a share, a year earlier.
Read more at First Word Pharma
Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge After Wegovy Maker Names New CEO, Cuts Full-Year Guidance
Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk on Tuesday named its new CEO while simultaneously slashing its full-year guidance, citing weaker growth expectations for its blockbuster Wegovy obesity drug in the key U.S. market. The drug maker said company veteran Maziar Mike Doustdar would take over as president and CEO following the surprise ousting in May of Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. The appointment is effective Aug. 7.
The company said it now expects full-year sales growth of 8% to 14% at constant exchange rates, down from a prior target of 13% to 21%. It expects annual operating profit growth of 10% to 16% versus the previously estimated target of 16% to 24%, also at constant exchange rates. Novo Nordisk said Tuesday that the lower outlook was driven by weaker second-half U.S. sales growth forecasts for its Wegovy weight-loss drug and Ozempic diabetes treatment. “For Wegovy in the US, the sales outlook reflects the persistent use of compounded GLP-1s, slower-than-expected market expansion and competition,” it added in a statement.
Procter & Gamble Beats Estimates But Warns Tariffs Will Start To Weigh On Earnings
Procter & Gamble on Tuesday reported quarterly results that beat Wall Street’s expectations, but introduced fiscal year 2026 guidance that included a $1 billion hit due to higher costs from tariffs. “We grew sales and profit in fiscal 2025 and returned high levels of cash to shareowners in a dynamic, difficult and volatile environment,” said CEO Jon Moeller in a news release. CFO Andre Schulten said during a media call that there will be mid-single-digit price increases affecting about a quarter of P&G’s items during the first quarter of fiscal 2026 due to tariffs and innovation.
P&G has invested significantly in the U.S., Schulten said, but some ingredients and materials are not available in the U.S. and continue to be imported. He said P&G can offset most of the tariff hit through productivity or sourcing changes, but some of the costs will be passed on through price increases.
Stellantis Pulls Back From Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Development, Toyota Presses On.
Stellantis has canceled its hydron fuel cell technology development program. According to Stellantis, people who that have been working on the hydrogen research and development programs will be redirected to other projects. This follows after Stellantis acquired a 33.3% stake in Symbio, a leading North American zero-emission hydrogen mobility company, in 2023. Stellantis states that the company is currently in discussions with Symbio to find an amicable way to part ways.
Meanwhile, Toyota, the world's biggest automaker, is carrying on regardless, offering its Mirai hydrogen fuel cell cars for sale in several territories around the world, including California. And investing heavily in developing internal combustion engines powered by hydrogen. The Toyota Mirai sedan is sold in Japan, some European countries and in California. Toyota again seems to have found a sweet spot between new technology and the practical, realistic implementation of said technology in a production vehicle. Toyota claims the Mirai can reach just over 400 miles per hydrogen tank. In 2021, the Mirai even set a new world record after driving 845 miles on one tank (12.5 lbs) of hydrogen. And it can do that by emitting no harmful gases whatsoever. At the same time, it has 182 hp and 221 lb-ft of torque, ensuring very brisk performance.