Member Briefing July 29, 2026

US Core Capital Goods Orders Rise, Shipments Post Largest Gain In 4-1/2 Years Amid AI Investment Boom

New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased strongly in June while shipments surged by the most in 4-1/2 years as businesses ramped up spending on artificial intelligence, suggesting the economy maintained a fairly strong pace ​of growth in the second quarter. The report from the Commerce Department on Monday also showed upward revisions to the data for May. The AI build-out is helping to ‌limit the drag on the economy from the five-month war in the Middle East and the Trump administration's lingering tariffs on imports, propping up manufacturing. Core capital goods orders rose 9.3% year-on-year in June.

• Non-defense capital ​goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, rose 0.9% last month after an upwardly revised 1.9% increase in May, the Commerce ⁠Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would advance 0.8% after a previously reported 1.4% jump in May.
• Orders for ​computers and electronic products soared 3.1% after rebounding by 1.2% in May.
• Electrical equipment, appliances and components orders rose 0.9% after climbing 0.2% in May.
• Orders for primary metals advanced 1.1%, but bookings for ​fabricated metal products fell 0.5%.
• Machinery orders dipped 0.1%.
• Shipments of core capital goods, which go into the calculation of the business spending on equipment component in the gross domestic product report, surged 1.9% last month after gaining 0.2% in May.
• Nondefense capital goods orders increased ​1.2% and shipments of these goods rose 1.5%
• Durable goods shipments increased 0.7% in June after advancing 1.1% in the prior month. Beyond the AI spending boom, economists expected manufacturing, which accounts for about 9.4% of the economy, to be supported by businesses rebuilding inventories as well as by tax ⁠rebates.

Read more at Reuters

Midyear Global Steel Output is Flat

Global raw steel production through the first half of 2026 is barely changed from January-June 2025, with 931.5 million metric tons of output across the 69 countries reporting to the World Steel Assn. That represents a -0.7% drop in production versus the first half of last year. More specifically, during June global steel production totaled 155.7 million metric tons, a -1.4% drop from the May total, and just -0.3% less than the June 2025 result. Various factors shape the global steel production total, and in the past year the major change has been the sustained effect of a 50% U.S. tariff on steel imports. That development has stabilized U.S. steelmakers’ production volumes and lifted the domestic industry to third-largest in the world.

• China remains the world’s largest steelmaking nation - it has produced almost 54.0% of the total global tonnage YTD. The January-June total for raw steel production in China is 500.0 million metric tons is -3.0% less than the comparable result for 2025.
• The Indian steel industry produced 14.1 million metric tons in June, unchanged from May but 4.5% more than in June 2025. India’s steelmakers have produced 87.0 million metric tons for the January-June period, 7.1% more than last year.
• U.S. steelmakers produced 7.2 million metric tons of raw steel during June, -4.2% less than in May but that total is 3.5% more than the June 2025 result. Through the first half of this year, U.S. steelmakers have produced 42.8 million metric tons of raw steel ( million short tons), 6.3% more than during January-June 2025.
• Japan’s industry produced 6.8 million metric tons of raw steel during June, -2.9% less than in May but 1.3% more than in June 2025.
• The fifth-largest steelmaking nation is Russia, where the estimated steel output for June was 5.6 million metric tons, unchanged from the May report and -3.4% less than the June 2025 result. Russia’s YTD output is estimated at 32.1 million metric tons, -8.4% less than during the first six months of last year.
• In the European Union’s 27 nations, June raw steel output was 10.8 million metric tons, which is 4.6% higher than in June 2025; and the YTD total is 65.4 million metric tons, down just -0.3% from last year’s comparable total.

Read more at American Machinist

Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout

For months, major employers treated hiring as an expensive last resort. Now, a shift is emerging across industries. Companies ranging from railroad giant CSX to Google parent Alphabet have told investors in recent days that they plan to hire to meet growth goals or to seize on emerging technologies. The push to expand head count, at least modestly, is a reversal from the prevailing corporate messaging during much of the AI era. Major employers largely held back on adding people due to economic uncertainties or a belief that artificial intelligence could shoulder more tasks on the job. But some executives say the costs and limitations of AI now demand that more people be added; others want to hire people back following layoffs.

Part of the change in hiring also reflects a recalibration among employers about what AI can do, said Sarah Franklin, CEO of the human-resources platform Lattice. Many companies stopped hiring entry-level employees, thinking AI agents could pick up the slack. They have since realized that humans are necessary to work alongside AI.  “Just because you have coding agents doesn’t mean you’re not hiring engineers,” she said, adding that companies with AI sales agents also need salespeople. Across Lattice’s thousands of clients, many are now back in hiring mode for a number of roles, particularly junior positions.

Read more at The WSJ

Iran and the Middle East

• Iran Launches Surprise Missile Attack on U.S. Forces - WSJ
• US And Saudi Strike Iran's Allies In Iraq - Reuters
• Iran Hosts Hormuz Calls With Saudi Arabia, Oman As Trump Hails ‘Good Talks’ – CNBC
• Trump, Netanyahu Tout "Productive" Meeting After Weeks Of Tensions - Axios
• Drones Attack Iran's Neighbours As Tehran Appears To Test Trump's Latest Pause - Reuters
• Houthis Say They Targeted Saudi East-West Oil Transport - AP
• Saudi Arabia Blames Iran-Backed Militias for Attack on Oil Facilities - WSJ
• Regime Change? Inside Reza Pahlavi’s Faltering Bid To Lead Iran - Reuters
• Interactive Map – US and Israeli Attack in Iran – ArcGIS Story Maps
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Zelenskiy To Meet US Senators, Russia Sanctions Vote Expected – Reuters
• Blurred Front Lines: Trump To Meet Zelenskyy As Ukraine, Iran Wars Collide - CNBC
• Zelenskyy And Britain’s New Leader Discuss Drone Projects And Missile Defense For Kyiv - AP
• Romania Slams Russia Over Weekend Drone Incursions - Politico
• Finland Closes Airspace, Restricts Maritime Traffic Near Russia Over Drone Risk – Defense News
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other World Headlines

• France Evacuates 4,000 More People As Heat Threatens Wildfire Fight Across Southwestern Europe – Reuters
• A Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake Shakes Part Of Southern Japan But No Tsunami Detected - AP
• Japan Quake Causes Explosion at Mall, Traps Shoppers - WSJ
• France, Germany Seek Grand Bargain On Cars And ‘Made In Europe’ - Politico
• France And Spain Race To Curb Wildfires Before New Heatwave Arrives - Reuters
• Trump Says U.S. Has Sold More Than $13 Billion Of Venezuela Oil Since Maduro’s Capture - CNBC
• French Politicians Can’t Get Enough Of 5 Hour Film ‘De Gaulle’ - Politico
• Netanyahu And Zelenskiy Attend Graham’s Funeral After White House Meetings With Trump - Reuters

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Washington Gathers To Mourn Lindsey Graham At Washington National Cathedral Funeral

President Trump heralded the late Sen. Lindsey Graham as a "legend" and "giant of the U.S. Senate" during a funeral service at the Washington National Cathedral on Tuesday. Trump's remarks came on the first of two days of remembrances for Graham, who died earlier this month at the age of 71. Trump expressed fondness for the man who once had harsh words for him when the pair competed for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016. He recalled sharing Graham's personal cell phone number in a particularly heated moment with millions of people – "something I shouldn't have done," he admitted, before once again reciting the digits during the ceremony, to much laughter in the sanctuary.

Dozens of members of Congress, along with members of the Cabinet, attended the funeral. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was also in attendance; Graham was one of Kavanaugh's most vocal defenders during his confirmation process. Several of Graham's staff members served as honorary pallbearers for the South Carolina senator. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were both in attendance — a reminder of Graham's longtime advocacy for both nations, and his interventionist foreign policy approach.

Read more at NPR

Trump Administration Bans New Chinese Humanoid Robots, To Protect US AI Buildout

The Trump administration on Tuesday unveiled bans ​that target imports of new Chinese robots and power inverters, seeking to protect the U.S. AI buildout from national security threats and reshore key industries slated for explosive ‌growth. The Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday afternoon released the measures, which bar Chinese imports of new humanoid and quadruped robots, in addition to connected power inverters, which enable renewable energy sources and batteries to connect to grids and data center equipment.

The restrictions, as first reported by Reuters, show the Trump administration is aiming to safeguard the U.S. artificial intelligence supply chain from Chinese threats of disruption, data theft and cyberattacks, while also driving firms to shift manufacturing to the U.S. Humanoid robots, topped with AI-enabled "brains," are forecast by some analysts for broad adoption in consumer and industrial arenas, while explosive data-center construction in the U.S. will ​depend on reliable sources of inverters.

Read more at Reuters

Will The Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates? Here Is What Experts Predict For This Week's Meeting.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting next week, but rising oil prices have prompted investors to sharply increase their bets that a fresh rate hike could come later this year. At the start of the year, many economists expected at least one rate cut in 2026. But resurgent inflation tied to rising energy prices has prompted some forecasters to instead expect higher rates before year's end. Economists polled by FactSet predict the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. That would mark the fifth

consecutive meeting when the central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged.

The probability of a rate hike at Wednesday's meeting has been rising, according to the CME Group's FedWatch, which uses 30-day Fed funds futures prices to predict rate cut decisions. The tool now shows a 38% likelihood the central bank will hike its benchmark rate next week, up from 12% a week earlier. Still, the greater likelihood is that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the CME FedWatch predicts.

Read more at CBS News

November Election Headlines

• Democrats Favored To Win House, Underdogs In Senate 100 Days Out – The Hill
• Senate Democrats Announce $40M Ground Game Spend In 10 Battlegrounds - Politico
• Democrats Select South Carolina For Their First Presidential Nominating Contest In 2028 Election – NY State Of Politics
• Real Clear Politics Generic Congressional Vote Poll Average – Real Clear Politics
• 2026 Senate Election Forecasts – 270 to Win

More Policy and Politics Headlines

• Taylor Farms Pressed Over White House Ties – Seeking Alpha
• Key Moments From Sen. Lindsey Graham’s Memorial - WSJ
• Economic Pessimism Eases Slightly: Gallup – The Hill
• McConnell To Skip Fancy Farm Picnic; Physician Says He’s Not Cleared To Return To Senate – The Hill
• Trump Defends His Sweeping Tariffs And Watches ‘America First’ Drag Races During Michigan Stop - AP
• Fauci, in Private Diary, Reflected on Covid’s Origins and His Own Fame - NYT
• Rand Paul On Fauci Diary Entries: ‘Level Of Dishonesty Is Really Astounding’ – The Hill
• Trump Administration to End Medicare Drug Plan Subsidy - WSJ
• Mamdani Publishes Names And Addresses Of All NYC Property Owners Who Could Be Hit With New Pied-À-Terre Tax – NY Post
• Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court To Intervene To Allow Mail-In Voting Restrictions – CNBC

We're Getting Closer To A Breakthrough On Hearing Loss

For decades, hearing researchers have been chasing a peculiar biological contradiction. Once enough of the inner ear’s sensory hair cells die, whether from age or injury, the loss is generally permanent. Hearing aids can amplify sound and cochlear implants can bypass damaged structures, but neither restores the cells themselves. And yet, in other animals, this limitation does not exist. Birds can regenerate the sensory cells that allow them to hear. Fish can do it, too. When those cells are damaged, new ones take their place. Humans cannot.

Or so it seemed. In the past decade, a series of experiments in mice have begun to complicate that picture—showing that, for a brief window after birth, a mammal’s inner ear retains a limited capacity for repair. Researchers initially hoped there might be a single master switch that could reactivate that ability. Instead, the answer appears to be more like a molecular recipe—one that draws on an unexpected source of replacement cells: the cochlea’s own supporting cells. With the right combination of developmental signals, these cells can begin to take on the identity of sensory hair cells. The challenge now is getting them to complete the transformation.

Read more at National Geographic

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

SOLD OUT! TEE SIGNS STILL AVAILABLE Council of Industry Golf Outing - Monday August 24th 11:30 AM - 7:30 PM. The Powelton Club, Newburgh.

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See previous episodes here!

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Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership (CML), In Person at Orange Community College , Newburgh.  Sept 16 - Dec 9. 8:30 - 4:30. (7 Courses)

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Trade Wars

• China Draws Lines on US Tariffs, AI Ahead of Xi-Trump Summit – Bloomberg
• Why Trump’s New Tariff Blitz Is Very Different This Time Around - CNBC
• Shein Swings To $99m Loss As Trump Tariffs Hit Sales - BBC
• Trump May Need To Allow Chinese Minerals As US Industry Struggles To Meet 2027 Deadline - Reuters
• Europe’s AI Safety Rules Take On US Rogue Agents And Chinese Ambitions - Politico
• Mercedes-Benz Leans On U.S. Growth To Counter Tariffs, China Slump – Automotive News

Chipmaker CXMT Vaults To Top Of China's Valuation With 466% Surge In Shanghai Debut

Shares of CXMT Corp soared ​466% on their Shanghai trading debut on Monday following Asia's biggest IPO this year, catapulting the chipmaker to the top of China's stock market by valuation despite a ‌recent selloff in global tech stocks. The one-day surge was the largest among the world's 10 biggest IPOs this year by deal value, based on Dealogic data. The jump was also the largest recorded among Chinese new listings valued at $5 billion or more in Dealogic data going back to 2006.

As U.S. curbs intensify competition in the global semiconductor race, CXMT has emerged as a key pillar of Beijing’s drive ​to build a self-sufficient chip industry and close the gap in strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence. The explosive debut crowned CXMT as China's most valuable ⁠listed company, overtaking banking giant Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, long the market's heavyweight.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

At 115 Years Old, Can IBM Survive the AI Era? CEO Arvind Krishna Makes the Case

IBM has a plan to profit from the AI race that doesn’t involve pouring billions of dollars into data centers or new models. CEO Arvind Krishna sits down with WSJ columnist Christopher Mims after the company’s worst single-day stock loss in history to share his vision for Big Blue’s future. Plus, lifestyle collections from Palantir and OpenAI have sparked ridicule across the internet. WSJ features editor Jamie Waters joins to explain why the products are selling out anyway.

“I think AI is an incredible technology that is going to provide an incredible amount of productivity in a number of human endeavors. Health, education, how companies run, how governments operate. I actually believe all of that is going to go happen. Now, there are two ways that can happen. It can all fall into the hands of one or two providers, and that is what some of that boom you're talking about is being spent on, I actually believe is going to be the exact opposite. I believe that the vast majority, 70%, is going to be in a massive heterogeneous mix. A number of open weight models, a number of models from other countries. We have yet to talk about the physical world coming into this where you need knowledge that is embedded deeply in the model and as well as models at the edge. So that is my view of what's going to transpire. This is going to take a couple of years to play out, not decades.” Arvind Krishna.

Read more/listen at the WSJ

Pratt & Whitney Boosted by New Geared-Turbofan Engine Orders

Pratt & Whitney will supply dozens of GTF geared-turbofan engines for 33 Airbus A320neo jets ordered by British Airways, as well as a further 30 aircraft that could be supplied under options. Up to 126 engines could be supplied, not including spares, and with an estimated unit cost of $12 million to $14 million the airline’s selection could be worth more than $1.8 billion to Pratt & Whitney. Engine deliveries are expected to begin in 2027.

The GTF engine is one of two options available to airline operators for the A320neo series jets, which are twin-engine, narrow-body aircraft. The design allows the engine fan and low-pressure turbine to operate at optimal speeds. The manufacturer calls it “the most fuel efficient engine for the single-aisle market, delivering up to 20% lower fuel consumption and a 75% smaller noise footprint compared to the prior generation of engines.” Pratt & Whitney recently reported it has logged over 800 orders and commitments for GTF engine since the start of 2026, including the British Airways order. "We see strong demand for the GTF engine and continued confidence in the value it delivers to customers," stated P&W’s Rick Deurloo, president of Commercial Engines.

Read more at American Machinist

The US Air Force Is Quietly Shrinking Below 5,000 Aircraft For The 1st Time In Its History

The United States Air Force (USAF) is in the midst of a watershed moment as its first sixth-generation stealth bomber comes online while also rapidly investing in low-cost uncrewed platforms. As the world's largest military air power is contending with the dual threat axis of asymmetric and near-peer adversaries, it is also facing a recruiting shortfall that leaves many pilot billets vacant. Meanwhile, its intake of new planes is falling short of a replacement rate as decades-old aircraft reach the end of their serviceable life.

The United States Air Force (USAF) is in the midst of a watershed moment as its first sixth-generation stealth bomber comes online while also rapidly investing in low-cost uncrewed platforms. As the world's largest military air power is contending with the dual threat axis of asymmetric and near-peer adversaries, it is also facing a recruiting shortfall that leaves many pilot billets vacant. Meanwhile, its intake of new planes is falling short of a replacement rate as decades-old aircraft reach the end of their serviceable life. One of the reasons the Air Force divestment rate is higher than its procurement rate is that the defense industrial base can't accommodate the volume of USAF orders, which is outstripping production

.

Read more at Simple Flying

Janicki Industries Invests $800 Million To Build Manufacturing Campus In Montana

Janicki Industries plans to build a new manufacturing campus in Great Falls, Montana. The project marks the start of construction on the company's new manufacturing operation in the city. The company, which designs and manufactures composite and metallic tooling, parts, prototypes, and assembled structures for customers in the aerospace, defense, space, marine, and other industries, is investing $800 million in the project and expects to create 1,000 new jobs within five years and more than 2,000 jobs once the campus is complete.

The manufacturing campus will encompass 1.6 million square feet on 180 acres within the Great Falls AgriTech Park and will be constructed in phases over the next decade. The first phase is expected to open by the end of 2027. The facility will expand Janicki Industries' capabilities in advanced composites, precision machining, and metal fabrication to support growing demand from its aerospace, defense, and space customers. The company expects to fill the majority of the new positions with Montana workers and plans to use its training programs to prepare employees for manufacturing roles.

Read more at Plant Services

Boeing Posts Wider Loss Than Expected As Air Force One Costs Weigh On Results

Boeing reported a wider-than-expected loss for the second quarter as the aircraft manufacturer’s long-delayed Air Force One program weighed down results. Boeing took a $280 million loss on the program to deliver two 747s that will serve as the next-generation Air Force One aircraft to the U.S. government as it said it ramped up investment for that plane. It said it still expects the first delivery in 2028. The company reported a loss per share of 76 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 30 cents a share expected on revenue of $24.56 billion vs. $24.25 billion expected.

On the positive side the aircraft manufacturer, a top U.S. exporter, increased revenue 8% in the second quarter to $24.56 billion from a year earlier with gains across its businesses, including increased deliveries of commercial aircraft. Boeing has been ramping up production of its bestselling 737 Max airplanes to 47 a month, with further increases planned. Boeing’s commercial aircraft deliveries in the second quarter rose 14% from a year earlier to 171 planes from 150 a year earlier. Free cash flow of $631 million came in well above the $177 million cash burn analysts expected, and compares with a $200 million burn in the second quarter a year ago.

Read more at CNBC

SpaceX Achieves Milestone with Starship Flight Test

On July 26, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies Corp completed its thirteenth flight test of the Starship from Starbase, Texas on July 24. This mission marked the second flight involving the Starship and Super Heavy V3 vehicles, also showcasing the deployment of the new Starlink V3 satellites. The recent flight test of SpaceX's Starship is a significant milestone in the company's ongoing efforts to enhance its space exploration capabilities.

The mission involved a series of complex maneuvers, including a hot-staging maneuver where the Starship's upper stage activated its engines to continue its ascent into space. Despite the successful separation of the stages, the Super Heavy V3 experienced a hard splashdown after attempting to reignite its engines for landing. This test not only demonstrates SpaceX's advancements in rocket technology but also highlights the company's commitment to refining its operations for future missions.

Read more at Space News

Nvidia in Talks With OpenAI to Guarantee $250 Billion Financing for Data Center

Nvidia is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data-center project, one of the most ambitious financial transactions yet in America’s artificial-intelligence boom. The guarantees from Nvidia would help the ChatGPT maker lease a 10-gigawatt project that SoftBank’s energy subsidiary is developing in southern Ohio, people familiar with the matter said. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, including the chips that would go inside the data centers. It would be the largest data-center project announced to date. The power for the project is controlled by the U.S. government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is involved in deciding who will get the power, some of the people said.

Nvidia’s backing would allow the data-center developer, which is owned by Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son’s investment firm SoftBank, to raise debt at more favorable terms than it could if OpenAI had no financial backer, since OpenAI has no investment-grade credit rating as an unprofitable private company. The AI company has been in advanced talks to lease the site for several weeks, people familiar with the matter said. OpenAI is among the companies that has shown most interest in the site, while Anthropic, Microsoft and Google have also spoken to Lutnick about it in recent weeks, one of the people said.

Watch the Video at WSJ

Daily Market Update July 28, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.04 at $2.73. The September ‘26 crude oil contract is down $1.27 at $81.34. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“You wake from dreams of doom and--for a moment--you know: beyond all the noise and the gestures, the only real thing, love's calm unwavering flame in the half-light of an early dawn.”

Dag Hammarskjöld - Swedish Economist and Diplomat who served as the second Secretary-General of the United Nations from his collection of poems and meditations 'Markings.' He was bon on this day in 1905.

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