Member Briefing July 30, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Census Bureau: The Trade Deficit Fell In June

The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in June amid a broad decline in imports, but the improvement was probably insufficient to prevent trade from again subtracting from economic growth in the second quarter. The ​report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed exports dropping to a five-month low, pulled down by a sharp decline in shipments of industrial supplies, which include petroleum. Although better than the previous report, the prior month was the worst deficit since July 2025. The June report points to broad-based cooling in international trade, although the details are mixed.

  • Total exports fell 1.8% from May.
  • The biggest drag came from industrial supplies (-4.4%), likely reflecting lower commodity and energy-related shipments.
  • Capital goods (-1.1%) also eased, suggesting softer overseas demand for U.S. machinery and equipment.
  • Bright spots were automotive exports (+5.1%) and consumer goods (+3.2%), indicating resilient demand in those sectors.
  • Total imports declined 2.6%, with every major category posting a monthly decline.
  • The sharpest drop came in consumer goods (-3.8%), which could indicate softer domestic demand or normalization after earlier inventory building.
  • Capital goods imports (-2.0%) also weakened, potentially signaling slower business investment.
  • Lower imports of industrial supplies and autos added to the overall decline.

Overall, the report paints a picture of slowing trade activity rather than accelerating global growth, even as the smaller trade gap may prove to be a modest positive for GDP.

Read more at Marktplace

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the US Declined in June and Partially Reversed Gains from Prior Two Months

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1 (2016=100), following a 0.1% increase in May. However, the LEI is down by only 0.3% over the first half of 2026, a much smaller rate of decline than its 1.1% contraction over the second half of 2025. “In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

  • While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories.
  • Despite the recent decline, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable.
  • Consumer spending is weakening
  • Strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve.
  • The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y GDP growth for 2026.

Read more at The Conference Board

AI Is Super Powering Cyberattacks, But Manufacturers Can Cut Their Exposure

Cyberattacks against industrial operations aren't new, but AI is rapidly changing how quickly attackers can identify targets, find vulnerabilities, and exploit them. At the same time, manufacturers are taking advantage of connectivity between IT and OT systems, adopting cloud-based tools, and enabling remote access to plant-floor assets. This level of connectivity is creating new pathways for hackers, providing access points to critical systems such as PLCs, HMIs, drives and other industrial controls.

In April, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a warning that cyber actors were specifically targeting OT devices, including PLCs. Hackers are looking to quickly exploit exposed controllers, poorly segmented networks, or unsecured remote access tools. As AI-powered threats become more automated and adaptive, manufacturers need to rethink how they secure systems—especially controllers and drives—and keep production running. Understanding how AI elements are supercharging cybersecurity attacks and the necessary steps manufacturers can take to reduce their risk is critical as today’s threat landscape evolves.

Read more at Smart Industry

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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Steady At Warsh's Second Meeting, Three Policymakers Back A Hike

The Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, opting to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Though markets largely expected the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold, recent talk from several officials indicate there’s a sizable constituency to at least consider a hike. At the post-decision press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that while the Fed won’t provide hints on where rate policy is heading, it will take necessary steps to meet its 2% inflation goal.

With no meeting in August, the next big challenge for Warsh will be the Fed’s annual policy retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The event will run from Aug. 27 to 29. Traditionally, Fed leaders have used the symposium to outline broad policy objectives. Warsh said his keynote speech, for now, is “a blank piece of paper right now.” However, he did say that he will be meeting with leaders of the five policy task forces he has created, and could use whatever information he gleans there as a starting point for the speech.

Read more at Reuters

House NDAA Proposes Major Acquisition Workforce Reforms

The fiscal 2026 defense policy bill was touted as a piece of legislation that would deliver “the most significant acquisition reforms in a generation.” And while the bill made some significant changes to defense acquisition processes, it barely addressed the workforce — a gap some experts warned could undermine those reforms. Now, House lawmakers are putting forward a number of reforms that could change how the Defense Department recruits, develops, evaluates and manages its acquisition personnel.

If passed, the bill would require the under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment to create a centralized dashboard or similar data analytics tool that integrates workforce data from across the military services and defense agencies. The system would track the acquisition workforce size, composition, geographic distribution, skills, certifications, vacancy rates and career progression, as well as employee performance. It would also include data on retention, attrition, career progression, retirement eligibility and projected workforce changes in the acquisition workforce. Lawmakers also want DoD to rely on commercially available data analytics and visualization tools to support the capability, unless the department determines that no commercial product can meet its requirements. The Defense Department could also get a new senior Pentagon official solely responsible for managing the acquisition workforce.

Read more at Federal News Network

Anthony Fauci Repeatedly Invokes Fifth Amendment at Covid-19 Hearing

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime government scientist who became the face of the U.S. response to the Covid-19 pandemic, repeatedly invoked the Fifth Amendment on Wednesday amid a barrage of heated questions and sharp accusations on Capitol Hill. Fauci faced the Senate committee hearing after the recent release of his journals shed new light on his handling of the crisis. Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.), whose office released the journals, issued a subpoena in June to require Fauci’s testimony after the infectious-disease doctor declined to appear willingly.

Fauci, 85, told senators on Wednesday that he had testified or briefed congressional committees more than 200 times but would decline to answer their questions because he believed the hearing was part of a campaign of slander against him. Paul in recent years has been particularly focused on whether American scientists, including Fauci, worked to discredit the theory that the Covid virus originated in a Chinese lab, while downplaying the level of scientific uncertainty about the matter. The doctor’s diary entry from Feb. 1, 2020, showed that in a meeting of a dozen top scientists, all but two thought it was possible the virus had been altered in a lab.

Read more at the WSJ

November Election Headlines

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Explosive Diarrhea Parasite Cases Rise By Thousands, Now In 45 States

Cases of cyclosporiasis, a stomach-churning parasitic infection known for causing explosive diarrhea, have now reached 45 states as infections climb well into the thousands. There have been 6,707 laboratory-confirmed cases of the illness since May 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in its weekly update on Tuesday, July 28, a more than 2,500 increase since its last report on July 21. Cases have also now been recorded in 45 states, up from 41 last week. More than 11,500 additional cases, primarily in Michigan and Ohio, have not yet been confirmed by laboratories, the CDC said.

Cyclosporiasis is a parasitic infection that causes unpleasant gastrointestinal symptoms often associated with food poisoning, such as diarrhea, nausea and vomiting. It is caused by the parasite Cyclospora cayetanensis, also known simply as cyclospora, and is usually contracted through contaminated food or water. There have been 423 hospitalizations and no deaths, per the agency.

Read more at USA Today

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Trade Wars

L3Harris Inks Deals With DOD, Lockheed Martin To Expand Component Production

Earlier this week L3Harris Technologies signed two seven-year contracts with the Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin to expand key component production for two weapons systems. An investment amount was not disclosed. Under one agreement, L3Harris will triple manufacturing of its propulsion products that support the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement system. The second agreement quadruples propulsion production for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system. Lockheed is the prime contractor for both weapons systems.

L3Harris produces the solid rocket boost motors that power the THAAD interceptor, which are made at its facilities in Huntsville, Alabama, and Camden, Arkansas, according to a data sheet. The company also makes the Liquid Divert and Attitude Control Systems, a propulsion system that situates the THAAD interceptor to destroy an incoming ballistic missile. The LDACS are produced at L3Harris’ Los Angeles facility.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Ford Raises Guidance For 2026 As F-Series Production Recovers

Despite top-line sales and revenue down year over year in Q2, Ford Motor Co. raised and narrowed its full-year 2026 guidance, to between $10 billion and $11 billion, up from $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, buoyed by confidence in strong sales of high-margin trucks and a continued recovery from aluminum supply issues.  Ford reported a net loss of $1.3 billion in Q2, mostly related to its electric vehicle retreat. It cited $4.2 billion in charges, including $500 million from a canceled EV program and $3.6 billion related to dissolving a BlueOval SK battery joint venture.

The automaker highlighted its third consecutive quarter of year-over-year profit improvement for its Model e EV business, even with sales down from the cancellation of the Ford F-150 Lightning. Meanwhile Ford reported the Bronco family’s best first half ever, record Maverick Hybrid sales, and strong sales of high-margin trims including Tremor and Raptor. F-150 supply is down to 45 days, confirmed Frick during Ford’s Q2 earnings call. “That gives us upside coming out, and the demand continues to look really strong,” Andrew Frick, the president of Ford’s Blue gasoline and Model e electric vehicle business units said.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Other Key Earnings

Procter & Gamble on Wednesday reported mixed quarterly results, as underwhelming demand for its products resulted in weaker-than-expected sales. Earnings per share were $1.43 adjusted vs. $1.41 expected and revenue was $21.2 billion vs. $21.38 billion expected. P&G reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income attributable to the company of $3.04 billion, or $1.26 per share, down from $3.62 billion, or $1.48 per share, a year earlier. Net sales rose 2% to $21.2 billion. The company’s organic revenue, which excludes acquisitions, divestitures and currency fluctuations, was unchanged for the quarter, thanks to flat volume across P&G’s portfolio.  - CNBC

General Dynamics reported higher profit and revenue in the second quarter, as performance improved across all of the company’s lines of business. The defense company on Wednesday posted a profit of $1.16 billion, or $4.24 a share, for its three months ended July 5, compared with $1.01 billion, or $3.74 a share, in last year’s comparable period. Analysts polled by FactSet expected quarterly earnings of $3.96 a share. Revenue rose 8.1% to $14.09 billion, ahead of Wall Street models for $13.52 billion. Revenue rose across all four of its business segments, it said. The company’s largest segment—marine systems—notched revenue of $4.66 billion, up 10% from last year. Its fastest-growing segment was aerospace, with revenue up 15% to $3.53 billion. WSJ

Microsoft reported robust cloud growth and a boost in the number of paid AI subscribers, as investors remain fixated on whether the tech giant’s data-center spending will pay off.  Microsoft’s revenue grew 18% to $90 billion in the quarter ended in June, a sign that the company’s AI revenue growth is accelerating and it will continue to spend on data centers. Net income increased 31% to $35.8 billion. The result beat Wall Street’s expectations, according to an average of dozens of analysts polled by FactSet. Microsoft’s capital expenditures reached $41 billion for the quarter, in line with the firm’s guidance last quarter. In April, the company said it expected to spend about $190 billion on capex in calendar 2026—up 61% from 2025. WSJ

Meta reported its second quarter results Wednesday, missing on earnings per share (EPS) but beating on revenue. The company also missed the midpoint for its Q3 revenue outlook, though it narrowed its planned capital expenditure range for 2026. For the quarter, Meta saw EPS of $6.18 on revenue of $60.8 billion. Analysts were anticipating EPS of $7.14 and revenue of $60.2 billion, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. Importantly, the company raised the bottom line of its capital expenditure estimates, increasing them to between $135 billion and $145 billion from $125 to $145 billion. – Yahoo Finance

ITW and Nucor See Tailwinds Sustaining Manufacturing Growth

Coming off landmark second quarters, in which Nucor set a second straight record for steel mill shipments and ITW posted the most profitable quarter in its long history, the top leaders of the companies said July 28 they’re confident that tailwinds from investments in the energy, infrastructure, data center and advanced manufacturing sectors will endure. “The backdrop for the demand picture is […] broad enough and strong enough in enough channels and it’s driven by some fundamental reshoring, fundamental capital investment cycles that are probably multi-year in nature,” President and COO Steve Laxton told analysts on a conference call. “This year, we would put an estimate somewhere around 2% up on demand overall. […] We see strength at least for the next couple of years in that same band or more.”

At ITW, which comprises seven divisions that are on pace to book 2026 sales of $1.8 billion or more, President and CEO Christopher O’Herlihy and his team have raised their forecast for 2026 organic sales growth by 1.5 percentage points to a range of 3% to 4%. That comes after a spring quarter in which each division grew more quickly versus the first three months of the year than is typical, and one in which ITW’s test/measurement and electronics business posted 10% organic growth and its welding group topped that with 14% organic growth.

Read more at IndustryWeek

US Army Awards Prototype Contracts To Ford, GM, BC Customs

The U.S. Army has awarded contracts to the Ford Motor Co., GM Defense and BC Customs on June 30 as part of its efforts to upgrade its Heavy Infantry Squad Vehicle, the military branch confirmed in an email Monday to Manufacturing Dive.  The three automotive companies will each develop three prototypes of the ISV-H as part of a competition. Desired capabilities include traveling 62 miles in eight hours with a gas tank just three-fourths full. Contract requirements also include right-to-repair and data provisions.

The first prototype deliveries are scheduled for March 30, 2027. Following delivery, the Army Test and Evaluation Command will assess and test the vehicles. The winner of the competition will receive a contract to produce over 600 ISV-Hs for the military branch. Auto and component manufacturers are getting involved in the defense industrial base months after President Donald Trump urged automakers to participate in munitions production, with discussions beginning before the Iran war, the Wall Street Journal reported in April.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

OpenAI’s Rogue Models Roamed The Internet For 4 Days And Staged A Second Attack

The powerful artificial intelligence models from OpenAI that went rogue and mounted an unprecedented, autonomous cyberattack earlier this month spent more than four days loose on the internet orchestrating the hack, according to a new analysis from the platform that was breached. Separately, a second AI company confirmed that one of its customers was also targeted by OpenAI’s models during the same event, raising questions about how OpenAI failed to detect the alarming activity for days.

OpenAI admitted last week that two of its most advanced models escaped a closed testing environment and strung together a series of advanced hacking techniques to breach AI developer platform Hugging Face before being discovered. But in a new analysis published Tuesday, Hugging Face said OpenAI’s two models — one publicly released and a second unreleased — did much more: They carried out 17,600 hacking actions on the internet between July 9 and July 13, during which time the models moved from their first foothold on the open internet to inside Hugging Face’s servers. Hugging Face first detailed the hack on July 15, but it was not clear until OpenAI’s disclosure last week which models were behind the breach — and that no human had prompted them to launch the cyberattack.

Read more at Politico

Japan Quake Halts Lexus Output as Nissan Assesses Plants

A powerful 7.1-magnitude earthquake in southwestern Japan forced Toyota to suspend Lexus production and left Nissan evaluating operations at one of its most important domestic assembly hubs. The quake struck the Kumamoto region of Kyushu at 4:27 p.m. local time on July 28, at a depth of roughly 6 miles. Violent shaking damaged buildings and roads, sparked fires, disrupted rail and air travel, and prompted a tsunami advisory for coastal waters. The warning was lifted within two hours, but the human impact remained far more serious, with people injured, missing or trapped in damaged structures.

For automakers, the immediate response was deliberately cautious. Stopping a production line after a major earthquake isn’t only about visible factory damage. Companies must inspect structures, machinery, utilities, transport routes and supplier networks before workers can safely return. At this stage, there’s no indication of a prolonged shutdown or a significant loss of production. Still, pausing the plants was the sensible decision. Modern assembly operations depend on precise equipment, uninterrupted utilities and thousands of parts arriving in sequence. A factory can appear intact while roads, suppliers or power systems around it remain unreliable.

Read more at News10

JetZero’s Blended-Wing Aircraft Just Got A Major Boost From Washington: A $3 Billion Preliminary Deal To Help Start Production

The U.S. government is swinging behind a fledgling startup’s moonshot bid to dislodge Boeing BA -3.21%decrease; red down pointing triangle as America’s only major maker of commercial airliners. The aircraft that JetZero wants to do it with is no less radical than its ambition. It looks more like a manta ray than the tube-with-wings blueprint that has been the default for over 70 years. If JetZero can cross the line, the blended-wing aircraft would mark the biggest shift in passenger-jetliner design since the supersonic Concorde. With four aisles the plane is set to fly about 10,000 feet higher than today’s airliners. Initial designs replace passenger windows with digital screens and, to compensate, a skylight in the ceiling to flood the cabin with natural light. Each seat, the company says, has its own overhead luggage compartment. And each toilet has a dedicated waiting space.

JetZero, based in Long Beach, Calif., last week reached an early deal with the U.S. Export-Import Bank as part of its Make More in America Initiative for as much as $3 billion in loans and guarantees that the company needs to build its first factory. The preliminary agreement is helping JetZero’s chief executive answer a question that has been plaguing him for years: Is this thing even real? The trick up JetZero’s sleeve is that its radical, new aircraft isn’t actually that new at all. Almost all of the Z4’s components—from controls to the use of previous-generation engines on its demonstrator—are taken from existing planes, meaning they have already obtained sign-off from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Read more at The WSJ

Daily Market Update July 29, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading flat at $2.66. The September ‘26 crude oil contract is up $5.24 at $84.50.  

Read more at NRG

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