Member Briefing October 7, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Global Manufacturing PMI at 55-Month High, But Price Pressures Accelerate

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI® September survey data signaled that worldwide manufacturing operating conditions improved to the greatest extent in over four-and-a-half years. Manufacturers were buoyed by rising levels of output, new orders and international trade. The outlook for the sector also remained positive overall, with businesses generally expecting output to expand further over the coming 12 months. The index posted a 55-month high of 53.0 in September, up from 52.3 in August, its highest level since February 2022. The headline PMI has signalled expansion for 14 consecutive months.

All five PMI sub-components were at levels consistent with improved operating conditions in September, the third successive month this has been the case. Output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases all expanded, while average supplier lead times lengthened. Manufacturing production increased at the quickest pace since July 2021 (62-month high), underpinned by the steepest gain in new business for 55 months. Demand for goods has improved throughout 2026 so far reflecting the combined increases in spending on AI infrastructure and defence equipment, though inventory building due to price and supply fears resulting from conflicts – notably the war in the Middle East – has also spurred demand.

Read more at S&P Global

New Orders For US Manufactured Goods Increased 0.1% In August

New orders for manufactured goods in August, up two consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $663.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported last week. This followed a 0.8 percent July increase.

  • Shipments, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $658.6 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent July increase.
  • Unfilled orders, up twenty-five of the last twenty-six months, increased $9.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,609.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent July increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.87, up from 6.81 in July.
  • Inventories, up eleven consecutive months, increased $5.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $972.4 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent July increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.48, up from 1.47 in July.
  • New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $338.5 billion, down from the previously published virtually unchanged decrease. This followed a 0.9 percent July increase.
  • Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $114.1 billion.
  • New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $325.0 billion.

Read more at Census.gov

Survey: Manufacturers Challenged but Still Confident About Growth, Prepared to Invest

Nearly two-thirds of the respondents to a survey conducted last month by Endeavor Business Intelligence, the research division of IndustryWeek parent EndeavorB2B, said they’re either very or somewhat confident in the growth prospects of the manufacturing sector over the next five years. By contrast, only 18% were either somewhat or very concerned about the sector’s outlook. The EBI report also showed that manufacturing leaders are very focused on adding automation and advanced technologies to their operations. The share who said that’s their No. 1 investment priority for 2027 (36%) was nearly as much as the second and third answers, facility expansion or upgrades (22%) and workforce training and development (18%).

The expansionary ambitions of those three priorities – versus the remaining supply-chain and sustainability options that are focused more on operational refinement – surfaced clearly in EBI’s research even though nearly half of respondents said their businesses are either facing challenges or declining. They reflect the growing sense of optimism in the industrial sector evidenced by nine consecutive months of expansion readings in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and suggest that the improving mood will endure well into next year.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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US EIA Hikes Oil Price Forecasts Again As Iran War Drains Global Stockpile

The US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecast for this year and next year on Tuesday, as global stockpiles fall rapidly and diesel markets remain tight due to the ongoing Iran war. Attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, a key export route for one of the world's largest oil producers, underscore ​the risk of further disruptions to physical oil flows and prices, the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

As a result, falling global inventories and tightening diesel markets are expected to keep crude prices elevated. Global benchmark Brent crude is forecast ​to average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 above the EIA's previous estimate. US retail diesel prices, which hit record highs last month, are ​expected to remain above $6 a gallon in October before gradually easing to an average of roughly $4.50 a gallon in 2027, the EIA said. The EIA expects US crude oil production to rise to ​a record 14.3 million bpd in 2027 from 13.9 million bpd in 2026, also a record. US petroleum demand is forecast to dip to 20.6 million bpd in 2026 ​before rebounding to 20.8 million bpd in 2027, the agency said.

Read more at Reuters

Senate Reaches Bipartisan Deal On Permitting Bill To Speed Approvals Of New Energy Projects

Senators from both parties said Wednesday they have reached a deal on legislation aimed at speeding up permitting reviews for new energy and infrastructure projects that now face yearslong delays, as lawmakers seek to meet growing demand for electricity and other forms of energy. The bill, proponents argue, would cut down the arduous timeline for getting big energy projects off the ground at a time when demand is rising because of mushrooming data centers for artificial intelligence. The bill would ensure AI data centers are forced to pay for the increased electricity they use and would mark a significant change to a landmark environmental law that critics say slows the process of building energy projects.

A vote on the bill won’t happen until after the midterm elections — reflecting the fraught political reality as elections loom that could change partisan control of both chambers. But the bill represents a rare instance of bipartisanship over the country’s energy policy as lawmakers from both parties agree on the need to build new energy projects of all types. Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, who chairs the energy committee, said he is confident the bill will be approved in a lame-duck session in November, noting its bipartisan support and encouragement from business and environmental groups.

Read more at The WSJ

The Worst State for Taxes in America Is Not a Surprise. The Details Still Are.

Every countdown has a moment where the reveal feels inevitable. You already know where this is going. New York. Number one on my personal list of worst states for taxation. The only state in this series that earned its own article. New York is different from every other state in this series. Not because it is simply more expensive, though it is. It is different because it has built a tax system so layered, so deliberately complex, and so aggressive in its reach that it functions almost like a toll booth at every stage of economic life. You pay to earn. You pay to own. You pay to sell. You pay to leave. And if you try to leave without doing it exactly right, New York will argue you never left at all.

The draw of New York, particularly New York City, has been enough to attract and retain people despite everything described above. The market access, the talent pool, the deal flow, the cultural gravity of the city, these things have genuine economic value. For certain businesses and certain individuals, that value exceeds the tax cost. That is a legitimate calculation and I respect it. But here is the distinction that matters. Choosing to be in New York with full knowledge of what it costs is a strategic decision. Staying in New York without understanding what it costs is an expensive accident. The clients I worry about are not the ones who have done the math and decided the city is worth it. They are the ones who have never run the numbers at all.

Read more at Weston Tax Associates

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Gov. Hochul Declares Upstate NY Measles Outbreak A ‘Disaster Emergency’

Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a disaster emergency Monday in response to the spread of measles across rural parts of the state as an outbreak ravages neighboring Pennsylvania. Statewide, 108 cases of measles have been reported through Oct. 3, including 92 cases reported since mid-July in “under-immunized, rural communities” across 18 New York counties, according to the governor’s office. Ostego, Seneca and Steuben counties are among those with the highest number of measles cases this year, according to a state health department tracker. Statewide, there were 48 confirmed cases last year.

Hochul issued an executive order Monday directing state agencies to help local governments manage the outbreak and stop the disease from spreading. Measles is highly contagious and often causes a rash of small, raised bumps. Other symptoms can include high fever, cough, runny nose and watery eyes, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Symptoms typically come on seven to 10 days after exposure, the CDC says.

Read more at the Gothamist

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

TODAY! Human Resources Management Issues, (A CML Course) October 7, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15. 8:30 - 4:30.

Effective Business Communication, (A CML Course) October 21, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Making a Profit in Manufacturing, (A CML Course) October 28, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Nobel Prizes Awarded

A trio of neuroscientists were awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for their pioneering work on optogenetics, a method of controlling nerve cells with light, which makes it possible to study how the brain shapes memories, feelings and behaviors. The Nobel committee said the work of Drs. Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel had laid the foundation of a new era in neuroscience. The work “unlocked new understanding of how the brain works, new possibilities for treating neurological and psychiatric disorders,” said Jonathan Levin, president of Stanford University, where Deisseroth is a neuroscientist and psychiatrist. Hegemann is based at Humboldt University in Berlin and Nagel at the University of Würzburg in Germany.

Broadly, the method is used to study how brain activity is linked to psychiatric or behavioral conditions. Finding the cells that matter can then help to design new therapies, Deisseroth said Monday. Studies are under way using optogenetics in autism and schizophrenia, and others coming along for Parkinson’s disease and depression, he said. “We’re optimistic that this will help us across neuropsychiatry,” he said. WSJ

Belgian-American particle physicist Francis Halzen won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics for ground-breaking work creating an observatory to detect some of the universe's most elusive particles, high-energy neutrinos, and how they ​are created. Halzen realised that ice at the South Pole could be used to track neutrinos, sometimes known as 'ghost particles' ‌for the way they pass through the Earth and our bodies without a trace, and only interact with matter extremely rarely.

The neutrino interactions collected by the IceCube observatory in Antarctica provide researchers ​with knowledge about how high-energy neutrinos are created, potentially even revealing previously unknown cosmic phenomena, the body said. - Reuters

Bayer to Invest 2.2 Billion U.S. Dollars in a New Manufacturing Site in Ohio

Bayer announced on Friday plans to invest 2.2 billion U.S. dollars in a new pharmaceutical manufacturing site in New Albany, Ohio, U.S. Building on more than seven billion dollars in U.S. pharma R&D and manufacturing spend over the past five years, the project is a central element of Bayer’s long-term growth strategy and commitment to innovation and patient access in its largest pharmaceuticals market. Bayer is expected to create around 600 high-value jobs in the New Albany International Business Park and roughly 1,500 construction jobs during the facility’s construction.

The flexible, modular campus is designed to combine drug substance and drug product manufacturing, leverage advanced digital and automation technologies, and support our growing portfolio initially in oncology, cardiovascular and renal care. The first module, dedicated to drug substance manufacturing, is expected to become operational in 2031. A second module for drug product manufacturing is planned to follow in 2034. The new site will complement Bayer’s U.S.

pharmaceuticals headquarters in Whippany, New Jersey and its other sites in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Berkeley, California; Cambridge, Massachusetts; Research Triangle Park, North Carolina; and San Diego, California.

Read more at BioSpace

Rolls-Royce Invests £300 Million In Manufacturing And Engineering Facilities Across The UK

Rolls-Royce has invested £300 million ($398 million) in manufacturing and engineering facilities across the UK, with projects in Derby, Bristol, Glasgow, Rotherham and Warwickshire. The company, which develops and delivers engines for aerospace and naval vehicles, has earmarked:

  • more than £140 million ($186 million) in Derby
  • more than £90 million ($119 million) in Bristol
  • £43 million ($57 million) in Inchinnan, Glasgow
  • £19 million ($25 million) in Rotherham
  • and £5 million ($6.6 million) in Ansty, Warwickshire.

Each site will focus on different projects. In Derby, the investment will fund new engineering and manufacturing services facilities and aftermarket support improvements, with the work expected to be completed in 2028. The Derby investment is intended to enable future growth, increase capacity and improve operational efficiency. In Glasgow, the money will be used to introduce machinery that will enable the manufacture of new engine components. In Rotherham, the funds are being invested at the Advanced Blade Casting Facility to increase its capability and productivity, with the program expected to double production of advanced turbine blades by 2030. In Ansty, Warwickshire, the investment in machinery upgrades will enhance manufacturing capability and efficiency.

Read more at Plant Services

FAA Finds No Risk with 737 MAX Software

The Federal Aviation Administration has concluded that a software defect in some Boeing 737 MAX flight-management systems is not a safety concern. The issue was discovered by Boeing in August and reported to FAA and 737 MAX operators. The wider significance of the issue was the pending FAA-certification of the 737 MAX 10, the largest variant of Boeing’s narrow-body jet series. Boeing earlier explained the issue could cause an aircraft’s automated vertical navigation (VNAV) system to fail unexpectedly during a missed approach or reapproach, if the flight crew alters the pre-programmed flight path. In those instances, pilots are instructed to execute further procedures in order to use automated tools on subsequent approaches.

No airline operators are known to have reported adverse incidents related to the issue, which affects versions 14 and 14.1 of the VNAV software. Earlier versions of the program are not affected. Whether the FAA’s pass on the VNAV issue will speed up its certification of the MAX 10 is unknown. Boeing had been anticipating that FAA clearance before the end of this year, signaling to analysts that deliveries (and thereby, revenues) would follow in course. Boeing has booked over 1,400 orders from major carriers, including Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Ryanair, and United Airlines.

Read more at American Machinist

Report: America Not Creating Enough Skilled Trades Workers

America needs to find 1.7 million skilled tradespeople every year through 2035 to fill the nation’s job openings. But schools and programs are only turning out 55 graduates for every 100 positions needed. That’s according to “The State of America’s Skilled Trades: A National Report,” a study just released by the Alliance for America’s Skilled Trades. The report covers 124 occupations, including advanced manufacturing, in every state. It discusses where workers are needed most and if enough workers are being trained there. The goal, according to the alliance, is to help employers, educators and lawmakers put resources where they are most important.

According to the alliance, many people are interested in trades jobs—many just don’t know how or where to find them. High school guidance counselors are still not steering students toward trades work. According to the report: Only one in four regularly recommend apprenticeships. Only 50% of counselors suggest trade school. Nine in 10 suggest getting a four-year degree, which doesn’t meet the needs of many students.

Read more at Advanced Manufacturing  

Google and Constellation Energy Strike a Sweeping Nuclear-Power Deal

Google and Constellation Energy agreed to a sweeping, 20-year nuclear-power deal that would boost output at 11 existing reactors, the latest tie-up between the tech and energy industries to power new data centers. The 890-megawatt power-purchase agreement unveiled by the companies Tuesday involves improvements to Constellation-owned reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The upgrades will provide additional power to the grid that is roughly equivalent to building a new large reactor. The deal is the largest-ever “uprate” project, one that squeezes more power out of existing reactors.

Constellation aims to deliver the first uprate project in 2028, while construction on the others continues through 2032 or 2033, Dominguez said. Google and Constellation also agreed to a 15-year supply deal for an additional 2,700 megawatts of electricity in the PJM power market in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. Constellation, the country’s largest owner of nuclear power reactors, also has a deal with Microsoft, which is supporting the restart of the undamaged reactor at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island.

Read more at WSJ

Anduril's $3.7B Md. Shipyard To Focus On Navy Submarines

General Motors plans to introduce hybrid models into its U.S. lineup as sales of the vehicles continue to grow amid inflated gas prices and a pullback in all-electric cars. Mike Anderson, GM’s vice president of propulsion engineering, reconfirmed the automaker’s hybrid plans, but declined to discuss timing for such vehicles, which had previously been expected as soon as next year. “It’s fair to say that [hybrids are] part of the plan,” Anderson, a 35-year GM veteran, told CNBC during an interview. “We’re not tone deaf to our customers. We know what they want and we want to give that to them as quickly as we can.”

Anduril won an up to $2.9 billion contract with the U.S. Navy on Tuesday to boost submarine production, days after co-founder Palmer Luckey was named to a Pentagon future weapons task force. The company is also investing $3.7 billion to scale a new shipyard at Sparrows Point, outside Baltimore, Maryland, slated to start operations in 2030 and create about 3,100 jobs. Anduril said the 2 million-square-foot facility will build components for the Virginia-class submarine. Some parts, including torpedo tubes, will be manufactured at a 160,000-square-foot facility in Orange County, California. Anduril is widely known for building autonomous drones and crafts. Over the summer, the Wall Street Journal reported that the company was reportedly in talks to build drone boats on the site. Brose said the facility will focus on the Virginia-class submarine program, illustrating a push into conventional shipbuilding by the growing defense contractor.

Read more at CNBC

Army Taps Anduril for Up to $1.8B NGC2 Data Layer Rollout

The Army has awarded Anduril Industries a five-year contract worth up to $1.8 billion to field the Next-Generation Command and Control, or NGC2, common data layer across operational units, starting with I Corps. I Corps, known as America’s First Corps, oversees four Army divisions in the Pacific region, where deployments may sit thousands of miles apart and must coordinate with joint and allied forces amid disrupted communications. Anduril said NGC2 must link the separated units and keep operations running when segments of the wider network go down.

Anduril’s Lattice platform supplies the distributed data layer within NGC2, tying together applications, artificial intelligence models, sensors and vehicles. The company said the open design lets the Army select technology from multiple vendors and add sensors, applications or weapons without rebuilding the foundation. The award carries a $162.8 million base period, with options making up the remaining value, Anduril said. The company said the contract shifts NGC2 from division-level prototyping to operational deployment.

Read more at GovCon Wire

US Crude Stocks Reach 427.3 Million Barrels as Fuel Markets Tighten

According to the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on September 30 by the EIA, US commercial crude stocks reached 427.3 million barrels for the week ended September 25, 2026, up 0.9 million barrels week-on-week. That total excludes the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). At the same time, gasoline and distillate inventories declined, according to the agency. This divergence means that a build in crude stocks alone cannot characterize the state of the refined products market.

Refining activity forms an essential link between these two markets. A drop in throughput processed by refineries reduces the conversion of crude into fuels, which can simultaneously contribute to a crude stock build and a drawdown of finished product inventories. This reading remains consistent with the EIA's weekly report, though it does not amount to a full breakdown of the changes observed: commercial trade flows and product supplied to the market also play a role in the variations recorded.

Read more at Energy News

Daily Market Update October 2, 2026

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.02 at $2.96. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is down $3.47 at $89.47. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“The nice guys are all over there, in seventh place.”

Leo Durocher - Hall of Fame Baseball Player and Manger from his Autobiography 'Nice Guys Finish Last.' - He died on this day in 1991.

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