Member Briefing October 1, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

PCE = 3.0% - Fed’s Preferred Gauge Showed Core Inflation In August Was Much Lighter Than Expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month gain at 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Excluding food and energy, PCE posted a 0.2% climb that put the annual core level at 3%. The respective forecasts were for 0.3% and 3.3%. Though the Fed officially follows the headline PCE number, officials generally consider core a better gauge of longer-term trends.

  • The report also showed that personal income rose 0.2% while spending increased 0.9%, against the respective consensus for 0.4% and 0.8%.
  • Energy costs were the primary culprit for the price rise in August, though multiple other sectors also showed gains. Gasoline jumped 4.4% and transportation services accelerated by 1.4%. Energy goods and services climbed 2.3%.
  • Goods and services prices both posted 0.3% increases.

Read more at CNBC

US Economy Grew A Solid 2.2% In The Second Quarter, Government Says, Upgrading Previous Estimate

The U.S. economy grew at a stronger pace than expected in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department's estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Wednesday released its final reading of second-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the three-month period including April, May and June. That figure topped the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who had estimated 1.5% GDP growth in the second quarter.

  • The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
  • From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in real value added of 2.5 percent for private services-producing industries, 2.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, and less than 0.1 percent for government.
  • The leading industry contributors to the increase in real GDP were real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance.
  • The leading offsets were decreases in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing.

Read more at the Bureau of Economic Analysis

ADP: Private Sector Jobs Rose By 90,000 In September, Better Than Expected

Private job creation picked up in September after a brief slowdown, providing further indication that the U.S. labor market has stabilized, according to an ADP report Wednesday. The payrolls processing firm said company employment rose by 90,000 for the month, higher than the downwardly revised 36,000 in August and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 68,000.

  • There also was a fair amount of balance in the report, with service providers adding 59,000 positions while goods producers contributed 31,000.
  • Base pay rose 3.2% from a year ago, while gross pay accelerated by 4.7%.
  • Education and health services contributed the most, with 55,000 new hires. Other areas of growth included leisure and hospitality (22,000), manufacturing (17,000), and construction (15,000).
  • A handful of sectors saw job losses, including financial activities (-16,000), professional and business services (-11,000), and natural resources and mining (-1,000).
  • Much of the employment growth came from the Northeast, which added 56,000.
  • By size, companies with between 50 and 499 workers saw a gain of 54,000.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to New 24-Year High

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield (US10Y) on Wednesday surged to a 24-year high above 5.30%, surpassing its previous 2007 peak. The benchmark yield spiked to as high as 5.31% (+5 basis points) in afternoon trading, reaching levels unseen since the spring of 2002, in the face of resilient U.S. economic data combined with ongoing concerns about energy-driven inflation and mounting fiscal debt. That leaves the 10-year note some 55 bps for the month and 138 bps higher than its March 2026 low.

The broader Treasury curve is climbing alongside it, with 2-year (US2Y), 5-year (US5Y), and 30-year (US30Y) yields rising to 4.89% (+2 bps), 5.10% (+4 bps), and 5.65% (+8 bps), respectively, all hovering around multi-year highs. Still, policy-sensitive short-dated yields didn't rise nearly as much as long-dated ones at press time as market-implied chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the Oct. 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting fell sharply after a softer-than-expected PCE inflation report.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Private Investment In Defense Growing But Uneven, AIA-Bain Report Finds

Money is pouring into defense technology firms, but key areas like critical minerals and components like semiconductors or solid rocket motors remain an underfunded gap in the industrial base, according to a new study by the Aerospace Industries Association and Bain & Company. And while venture capital funding for defense has increased by 10 times since 2019, other funding pools like private equity remain relatively untapped by defense companies, the study found.

“Defense does not face a shortage of capital. It faces barriers that make expanded investment, particularly in critical bottleneck areas, more difficult,” states the study.

Read more at Inside Government Contracts

New York's Decades-Old Unemployment System Is Getting an Upgrade

New York’s unemployment insurance system will soon get a major upgrade designed to make it easier for people and businesses to access support. The New York State Department of Labor announced that starting at 5 p.m. on Nov. 2, it will begin updating its Unemployment Services system, which has been in use for 50 years. The department said the upgrade is expected to take nine to 12 days to complete. During this time, all online and phone-based unemployment insurance services will be unavailable. The upgrade comes several years after a state audit revealed billions of dollars were lost to unemployment insurance fraud in New York due to the outdated system.

"This significant overhaul of the unemployment insurance system is part of NYSDOL's multi-pronged plan to modernize its customer-facing services. Using their existing NY.gov login, most users will be able to complete the entire claims process fully online, including from their smartphones. This includes filing a claim, certifying for weekly benefits, and receiving updates and notifications about their accounts. The upgraded system also maintains NYSDOL's strong protections for personal information and fraud prevention measures."

Read more at the WKTV

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

New mRNA Flu Vaccine Available As Flu Season Approaches

A new flu vaccine using mRNA technology is now approved for use in the United States, giving people another option to protect against the influenza virus. The vaccine, called mFlusiva, is the first and only flu vaccine to use mRNA technology, according to Kawsar Talaat of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “The new vaccine provides a little bit of the genetic material of the influenza virus that allows our cells to make some of the influenza proteins, and allows us to develop an immune response to that,” Talaat said.

Other traditional flu vaccine options remain available based on age. Standard-dose vaccination and an egg-free, cell-based influenza shot are approved for people ages 6 months and older. A recombinant flu shot, also egg-free and made without influenza viruses, is available for people ages 9 and older. A flu vaccine nasal spray called FluMist is available for those ages 2 to 49. It contains weakened live influenza viruses, so it is not recommended for anyone pregnant, immunocompromised or with certain medical conditions.

Read more at ABC7 Sun Coast

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

AI Without the Hype: A Practical Roadmap for Growing Businesses In Person at Marist University.  September 24, 8:30 -11:00 AM. (Manufacturers Only Please)

Human Resources Management Issues, (A CML Course) October 7, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15. 8:30 - 4:30.

Effective Business Communication, (A CML Course) October 21, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Making a Profit in Manufacturing, (A CML Course) October 28, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Level in 12 Years

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index tumbled 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August. That’s the lowest reading in the board’s survey since April 2014 and below the lowest level reached during the pandemic. Respondents’ views of their present situation fell by 7.9 points to 109.3. Their short-term outlook also slid, falling 5.9 points to 63.6.

Write-in responses to the board’s survey, collected from September 1-23, were mostly pessimistic this month, with frequent references to the high cost of gas, goods and services. Consumers’ views of the current labor market also worsened in September, but remained in positive territory, the board said. Respondents broadly said they expected their household incomes to rise, but not as much as in previous months.

Read more at The AP

Boeing Wins Navy Next-Gen Fighter F/A-XX Competition

The Navy has chosen Boeing over Northrop Grumman to build its sixth-generation strike fighter, dubbed F/A-XX, two sources told Breaking Defense ahead of the formal announcement. The selection locks Boeing in as the sole supplier of sixth-generation fighters for the US. In March 2025, Boeing won the right to develop and produce the Air Force’s next-gen fighter, dubbed the F-47. Per a Pentagon release the agreement is “valued at more than $20B for the full-scale development phase. The contract procures multiple test aircraft for ground, airworthiness, systems, and weapons integration testing.” The statement added that the F/A-XX will fly “beginning in the 2030s” for the Navy.

Hung Cao, the acting navy secretary, said, “The Sixth-Generation fighter is a generational leap in air superiority and will provide the world’s best aviators with unparalleled capabilities to fight, win, and come home safe. We are excited to partner with Boeing, and for our warfighters to continue to dominate the skies and defeat our nation’s enemies.” Boeing’s defense chief, Steve Parker, called the selection “an honor.”

Read more at Breaking Defense

Ford F-150 Supplier Disruption To Impact Third-Quarter Sales, CEO Says

Ford CEO Jim Farley said a supplier issue that affected F-150 ‌pickup-truck output in recent days has been ‌resolved, but the snag has impacted the company's third-quarter wholesale numbers. Production ​of Ford's best-selling vehicle was halted last week at a Detroit-area factory because of a supply problem, and had been scheduled to resume on Tuesday, Reuters reported ‌last week, citing ⁠an internal memo. Ford's Kansas City F-150 plant also was affected, Reuters reported.

Farley told ⁠reporters during an event on Wednesday that the issue with the supplier, which he did not name, has ​been fixed. "We ​are back up and ​running," he said. "The supplier ‌issue, you know, we have ways to address it. It is impacting our third-quarter wholesale. But I'm very optimistic." Farley also said that the company is "fully recovered" from the effects of two factory fires late last ‌year that disrupted production at aluminum ​supplier Novelis, crimping Ford's truck ​output for much ​of the year. The supplier issue that affected ‌Ford's truck output in the ​past week ​was unrelated to the aluminum issue, Reuters reported last week.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Eli Lilly Says Closely Watched Combo Obesity Regimen Boosts Weight Loss In Mid-Stage Trial

Eli Lilly on Wednesday said its experimental combination regimen showed greater weight loss than a high dose of its top-selling drug, tirzepatide, alone in a mid-stage trial on patients with obesity and Type 2 diabetes. The combo therapy met the study’s main goals in a population that typically struggles to lose weight. The results boost hopes that it could serve as an alternative blockbuster treatment option for people who didn’t respond to or see the results they wanted on the current GLP-1 products on the market. Lilly said it plans to start Phase 3 trials on the regimen at the end of the year.

The combination treatment combines Lilly’s experimental drug eloralintide, which targets amylin – a hormone in the pancreas involved in appetite and satiety – with a low dose of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in its obesity injection Zepbound and its diabetes counterpart Mounjaro. Tirzepatide targets two gut hormones, GLP-1 and GIP. Lilly believes that hitting all three pathways, including amylin, can further reduce appetite and improve weight loss – and the combo drug did just that in the 48-week Phase 2 trial.

Read more at CNBC

Micron Beats On Earnings And Issues Strong Guidance As Data Center Revenue Jumps 11-Fold

Micron reported better-than-expected quarterly results on Wednesday as the memory maker continues to benefit from soaring demand for AI infrastructure. The stock rose slightly in extended trading. Earnings per share were $33.42 adjusted vs. $31.61 expected and revenue was $54.23 billion vs. $51.07 billion expected. Revenue almost quadrupled in the fiscal fourth quarter from $11.32 billion a year earlier, according to a statement.

For the fiscal first quarter, Micron said it expects revenue of about $61.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $38.15. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected $35.40 in adjusted earnings per share on $57 billion in revenue. Micron is the only U.S.-based maker of high-bandwidth memory, HBM, made up of stacks of general-purpose dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM. Fourth-quarter DRAM revenue increased 343% from a year ago to $39.8 billion, representing 73% of total sales.

Read more at CNBC  

Heavy Equipment Maker JCB To Open $1 Billion Texas Factory In October

JCB is stepping up investment in its manufacturing operations in Britain and the US, with a £100m transformation of its Staffordshire headquarters and the opening of a $1bn factory in Texas. The investments come as the British construction equipment manufacturer looks to position itself for its next phase of growth, following a resilient performance in 2025 and the appointment of George Bamford as Joint Chairman alongside his father, Lord Bamford. Alongside its manufacturing expansion, JCB is continuing to invest heavily in alternative powertrain technology. The company has committed £100m to developing hydrogen combustion technology and says it has become the first construction equipment manufacturer to bring a fully approved hydrogen-fuelled combustion engine to market.

JCB is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the US, with its new factory in San Antonio, Texas, due to open next month. The one-million-square-foot facility will be JCB’s largest factory anywhere in the world and represents an investment of $1bn. The site will manufacture Loadall telescopic handlers and access equipment for the North American market, which JCB describes as the world’s largest construction equipment market. The company expects the facility to create 1,500 jobs over the next five years.

Read more at The Manufacturer (UK)

Ford, JPMorgan Chase and Michigan Establish $3B Manufacturing Initiative

Ford Motor Co., JPMorgan Chase and the state of Michigan are establishing a $3 billion program that addresses manufacturing and supply chain challenges by providing companies with financing, workforce support and other resources to scale production. The Michigan Launchpad for Industrial Innovation and Transformation, or Michigan LIFT, creates and facilitates an “open call” system that connects suppliers with industry buyers to tackle needs in robotics and automation, critical minerals, semiconductors and other priority areas, according to a news release. Industry buyers do not have to be in the state to participate.

Ford and JPMorgan Chase have each pledged up to $1 billion to the program to advance workforce development and finance industries dependent on critical minerals, respectively. Michigan Central, Newlab and the state’s economic development group aim to add another $1 billion in commitments from buyers over the next 10 years. The program grew out of the Michigan Resiliency Summit hosted by JPMorgan Chase and the state of Michigan in Detroit in June, where industrial, financial and government leaders identified operational and technological hurdles.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

L3Harris Secures $6B Contract To Expand THAAD Missile Defense Production

L3Harris Technologies has received a contract worth more than $6 billion over seven years to significantly expand production of propulsion systems for the THAAD missile defense system, with Huntsville among the locations supporting the work. The contract, awarded by Lockheed Martin, will expand L3Harris' THAAD propulsion production in Huntsville, Los Angeles and Camden, according to the company.

THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, is a missile defense system designed to intercept ballistic missile threats inside and outside Earth's atmosphere. L3Harris said THAAD is designed to defend against short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The company also said THAAD has achieved a 100% intercept success rate in flight tests since production began. “L3Harris is proud to partner with Lockheed Martin to significantly scale production of these vital interceptors, providing warfighters with the reliable, proven capabilities they need to defeat a range of threats,” Bedingfield said.

Read more at Fox 54 (Alabama)

The Data Center Boom Continues Apace, But Projects Face Mounting Obstacles

The U.S. data center boom has entered a new, contradictory phase. On the one hand, both data center construction activity and credible forecasts for near-term capacity additions to the electric grid to serve data centers remain robust. The Electric Power Research Institute, for example, said in February that data centers will represent up to 17% of U.S. electricity demand in 2030 and as much as 20% in 2035.

On the other hand, data center and utility infrastructure projects face a host of challenges. These include both physical constraints, such as equipment and labor shortages, as well as mounting public opposition driven by concerns about large-scale computing facilities’ impact on water supplies, the cost and reliability of power and natural gas supplies, and the quality of life in host communities. The upshot is that even some data center development projects advanced enough to appear in utility load forecasts with a named hyperscaler attached are not certain to move forward.

Read more at Utility Dive

Daily Market Update Sept 30, 2026

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.01 at $3.00. The November ‘26 crude oil contract is down $1.02 at $90.40. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

"We are embarked as pioneers upon a new science and industry in which our problems are so new and unusual that it behooves no one to dismiss any novel idea with the statement that ‘it can’t be done!’"

William Boeing - American Aviation Pioneer who was born on this day in 1881.

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