Member Briefing June 11, 2025
NFIB: Small Business Optimism Increases in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by three points in May to 98.8, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. Expected business conditions and sales expectations contributed the most to the rise in the index. The Uncertainty Index rose two points from April to 94. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. Key Findings Include:
- The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to a net 25%.
- The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 11 points from April to a net 10%. This component contributed the most to the Optimism Index’s improvement.
- Twenty-two percent plan capital outlays in the next six months, up four points from April and the highest reading of this year.
- The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as the single most important problem for business fell three points from April to 16%.
- Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April.
- When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 14% reported excellent (up one point), and 55% reported good (down one point). Twenty-eight percent reported the health of their business was fair (up one point) and 4% reported poor (unchanged).
World Bank Sees U.S. Growth Rate Halving as Tariffs Slow Global Economy
Economic growth in the U.S. might halve this year as a result of President Trump’s tariff policies, while the global economy is set to suffer a more modest, but still significant, slowdown, the World Bank said Tuesday. The Washington, D.C.-based development bank said it expects the world’s largest economy to grow by just 1.4% in 2025, a sharp deceleration from the 2.8% expansion recorded in 2024. In its January report on the outlook for the global economy, the World Bank forecast a 2.3% increase in U.S. gross domestic product.
The World Bank also lowered its forecasts for economic growth in the eurozone, Japan, India and many other countries around the globe, as the rise in duties crimps their exports to the U.S. Among large economies. Mexico is set to suffer the biggest blow, with growth in 2025 now forecast at just 0.2%, down from 1.5% in January.The World Bank now expects world output to grow by 2.3% this year and 2.4% the next, having previously projected an expansion of 2.7% in each year. However, the World Bank backed Trump’s claim that the U.S. faced higher tariffs on its exports than it levied on imports before the recent increases, and Gill said other countries should offer to lower their duties in an effort to secure trade peace.
The US and China Say They Have Agreed On A Framework To Resolve Their Trade Disputes
Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators have agreed on a framework to get their trade negotiations back on track after a series of disputes that threatened to derail them, both sides have said. The announcement came at the end of two days of talks in the British capital that wrapped up late Tuesday. The meetings appeared to focus on finding a way to resolve disputes over mineral and technology exports that had shaken a fragile truce on trade reached in Geneva last month. It’s not clear whether any progress was made on the more fundamental differences over China’s sizeable trade surplus with the United States.
“First we had to get sort of the negativity out and now we can go forward,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters after the meetings. Li Chenggang, a vice minister of commerce and China’s international trade representative, said the two sides had agreed in principle on a framework for implementing the consensus reached on the phone call and at the talks on Geneva, the official Xinhua News Agency said.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Trump Rejects Iran's Counter-Proposal In Nuclear Negotiations: 'It's Just Not Acceptable' – Fox
- Israeli Navy Strikes Houthi-Controlled Port City Of Hudaydah - BBC
- Israel Deports Greta Thunberg After Gaza-Bound Ship She Was On Was Seized - BBC
- A Surprising Power Shift Inside Hamas – The Economist
- Netanyahu’s Government Could Collapse Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Draft Law – AP
- France Says It Obtains Palestinian Reform Pledge Ahead Of Conference - Reuters
- Britain Sanctions 2 Israeli Ministers For ‘Inciting Extremist Violence’ Against Palestinians - Politico
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- EU Announces Punishing Sanctions Targeting Russian Energy And Banks – Politico
- Why The Russia-Ukraine War Is Also A Complex Energy Conflict - Forbes
- Zelenskyy Says Russia Struck Maternity Hospital In Huge Overnight Attack - Politico
- Zelenskyy: US Diverting 20,000 Missiles Promised For Ukraine To The Middle East - ABC
- Ukrainian Woman Searches For Husband Lost In Action Two Years Ago - Reuters
- Ukraine, Russia Conduct Second Prisoner Swap Under Istanbul Deal - CNN
- Russian Drone And Missile Attack, One Of The Biggest In The War, Kills 2 And Wounds 13 In Ukraine - AP
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- 14-Year-Old Hitman Who Tried To Kill Miguel Uribe: ‘I’m Sorry, I Did It For The Money, For My Family’ – EL PAÍS
- UN Ocean Conference Drums Up Signatories To Key High Seas Treaty – France 24
- Brazil’s Annual Inflation Slows for the First Time Since January - Bloomberg
- Mexican President Condemns Violence In Los Angeles Protests - Reuters
- China’s Navy Expands Its Reach With Aircraft Carrier Drills - WSJ
- India, Poland And Hungary Launch Astronauts On Historic Mission - Forbes
- China Taps $1.5 Trillion Fund to Boost Home Market Support – Yahoo Finance
- Concerns Grow Over Intense Price Competition In Chinese Auto Sector – Nikkei Asia
Policy and Politics
Senate GOP Deeply Divided Over Cutting Cost Of ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’
Senate Republicans are deeply divided over how to cut the cost of House-passed legislation to enact President Trump’s agenda, which Elon Musk has attacked as a “mountain of disgusting pork” and fiscal conservatives on Capitol Hill say doesn’t do enough to cut the deficit. GOP lawmakers have expanded their search for ways to reduce the deficit by cutting Medicare, the Defense Department and the Federal Reserve — areas of the budget that were considered off limits just a few weeks ago. But each new proposal is creating new divisions.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is warning colleagues to steer clear of cutting Medicare spending, even though proponents of the idea insist it would be targeted only on “waste, fraud and abuse.” Some Republicans are also calling for a closer look at defense spending, arguing that the Pentagon needs to see its budget shrink along with the rest of government. While the House-passed bill includes $150 billion in new funding for the Defense Department for new programs, such as Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense shield, fiscal conservatives say there’s a lot of bloat in the defense budget that should be eliminated.
Assisted Suicide Headed To Governor With Senate Approval
After more than a decade of advocacy, the so-called "Medical Aid in Dying" Act has passed the state Senate. The legislation allows those with terminal illness to medically end their own life. Advocates have argued the bill limits what they call "unnecessary suffering for individuals who are in end-of-life situations." Guard rails have been put in place, including the need for both a written and oral request and the need for the individual to administer the prescription themselves.
The bill has received pushback from disability rights advocates and other groups who are concerned people could be pressured into the procedure. The Catholic Conference, which led the lobby against the bill, released a statement Monday night, saying: "This is a dark day for New York State. For the first time in its history, New York is on the verge of authorizing doctors to help their patients commit suicide. Make no mistake – this is only the beginning, and the only person standing between New York and the assisted suicide nightmare unfolding in Canada is Governor Hochul.
Read more at NY State of Politics
Statewide Coalition Formed To Oppose Construction Prevailing Wage Bill
More than 50 organizations representing economic development, community, and business groups across New York Tuesday launched a statewide coalition to oppose the proposed expansion of construction prevailing wage laws. The bill – A6708 / S6378 – would dramatically raise construction costs, stop critical projects, including those working toward New York’s housing goals, and eliminate thousands of jobs for New Yorkers. The coalition calls on lawmakers to reject the legislation that would stall development and continue to weaken New York’s economy.
“At a time when New York is grappling with an escalating affordability crisis, declining development, fewer construction jobs, and a shrinking pipeline of new projects, imposing additional cost burdens on construction will only worsen these conditions. In the midst of a statewide housing shortage, the bill will result in less affordable housing in communities across the state. The legislation also seeks to eliminate the Public Subsidy Board, a misguided proposal that would remove the balance between government, labor, and business that is needed to ensure good wages and economic development go hand-in-hand.” The Coalition said in a press release.
For more information about the coalition, visit: keepnewyorkbuilding.org.
Political Headlines
- Trump Authorizes Deploying 2,000 More National Guard Troops To LA – CNBC
- California Asks Judge To Quickly Block Trump Troop Deployments To LA - CNBC
- Tense ICE Protests Spread to San Francisco, Putting New Mayor to the Test - WSJ
- State Leaders’ Response To Federal Funding Cuts: Blame Republicans – City & State
- Perfect Storm As Trump's Mass Deportation Drive Collides With City Of Immigrants - BBC
- RFK Jr. Ousts Entire CDC Vaccine Advisory Committee - AP
- Los Angeles On Edge as Marines Arrive - WSJ
- Trump Approval Rating Tracker: Majority Side With Neither Trump Nor Musk In Feud, Survey Finds - Forbes
- Democratic Frustration Reaches Boiling Point Over David Hogg – The Hill
- Kennedy's Firing Of Independent CDC Advisers Undermines Vaccine Confidence, Experts Say - Reuters
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Health Secretary RFK Jr. Abruptly Fires CDC Vaccine Advisory Panel
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has taken the extraordinary step of firing the expert panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on immunizations, saying the action is needed to restore faith in vaccines. “A clean sweep is needed to re-establish public confidence in vaccine science,” Kennedy said in an op-ed published Monday afternoon in the Wall Street Journal.
ACIP votes on updates to the CDC’s vaccine schedule. The CDC director has the power to overrule those recommendations but rarely does. Kennedy, a longtime vaccine skeptic, will now be able to select replacements for all members, who usually serve four-year terms. The decision also seemed to buck promises that he made to Sen. Bill Cassidy, chair of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, to win confirmation as HHS secretary.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- Appeals Court Keeps Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs in Place for Now - WSJ
- US-China Trade, Export Control Talks Push Through Second Full Day In London - Reuters
- Price Wars Grip China As Deflation Deepens, $30 For A Luxury Coach Bag? - Bloomberg
- NRF Expects U.S. Importers To Bring In The Equivalent Of 2.01 Million Ocean Shipping Containers In June - WSJ
- China Says Its Exports To The US Fell 35% In May - AP
- Kohl’s Shifts Inventory Strategy To Curb Tariff Impact – Supply Chain Dive
- Temu And Shein Are Pivoting To Europe In Face Of U.S. Tariffs. But They May Not Get A Warm Welcome - CNBC
- US Retail Giants Pushing Chinese Suppliers To Shoulder Up To 66% Of Tariff Costs - SCMP
- Taiwan Exports Growth Nears 15-Year High Amid Tariff Uncertainty - WSJ
- Building New Facilities to Avoid Tariffs Won’t Be Easy - IndustryWeek
- Trump’s Tariffs: Tracking The Status Of International Trade Actions –Supply Chain Dive
China’s Rare-Earth Mineral Squeeze Puts Defense Giants In The Crosshairs
The automotive and robotics industries have been hit particularly hard by China’s rare earth export restrictions in recent weeks, but analysts warn Western defense giants will also feel the heat. Top U.S. and Chinese officials are resuming trade talks in London for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, pushing to de-escalate tensions over rare-earth minerals and advanced technology.
The restrictions imposed by China’s Ministry of Commerce in early April require firms to apply for a license for the export of rare earths and magnets. Rare earth elements play an integral role in modern defense technologies, according to the SFA-Oxford consultancy, enabling advanced radar and sonar systems, laser guidance and propulsion technologies in combat environments. Automotive industry groups have complained about the cumbersome process of trying to get necessary approvals, warning of increasing production threats as inventories deplete. China nevertheless appeared to offer U.S. and European auto giants something of a reprieve over the weekend.
Toyota, Daimler Finalize Plan to Merge Truck Units in 2026
The planned merger of Daimler Truck and Toyota's Japanese truck subsidiaries appears to be nearing completion. The two corporations have signed the definitive agreement to merge Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino Motors, Daimler Truck announced on Tuesday. According to the companies, Japanese truck makers Fuso and Hino will merge as equals under a new publicly listed holding company, with Daimler Truck and Toyota each holding a 25 percent stake. The holding will be led by Karl Deppen, the current head of Mitsubishi Fuso. Further details will be announced in the coming months.
Daimler Truck and Toyota first announced the merger of their subsidiaries two years ago, describing it as a merger of equals. By pooling their resources, the companies aim to address the high costs associated with developing environmentally friendly drivetrains.
Machine Tools Orders Trending Upward
U.S. manufacturers’ orders for new machining equipment slipped to $444.9 million in April, down -12.7% from March. However, as noted by AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology, the new figure is 44.5% higher than the April 2024 total, and it raises the new order total for January-April 2025 to $1.69 billion, or 17.8% higher than last year’s four-month tally. Those figures support AMT’s reading of rising demand for machine tools since the end of Q3 2024.
Some portion of the current demand for machine tools may represent buyers’ efforts to out-run the anticipated tariffs on imported goods, AMT observed. Contract machine shops’ April orders declined by -6.3% from March, less than half the overall rate of decrease during that period. On the other hand, machine-tool orders from the aerospace sector dropped by nearly half from March – and still remained higher than their 2024 monthly average.
Read more at American Machinist
Rolls-Royce To Build Britain’s First Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
British aerospace group Rolls-Royce on Tuesday received backing from the U.K. government to build the country’s first small modular nuclear reactors.The announcement follows a two-year selection process and reaffirms Britain’s embrace of nuclear power, particularly as it also pledged on Tuesday to invest £14.2 billion ($19.2 billion) to build the large Sizewell C power station in eastern England. Britain’s center-left Labour government said the plans could support up to 3,000 jobs and power the equivalent of 3 million homes once the SMRs are connected to the grid in the mid-2030s.
SMRs promise to have smaller and lighter footprints than traditional plants, potentially making them cheaper and quicker to build when they are fully commercialized. Amazon and Google both signed deals last year to develop SMRs in the U.S. as tech giants increasingly turn to nuclear to fulfill the growing energy demands from data centers. As it is low-carbon, advocates argue that nuclear power has the potential to play a significant role in helping countries generate electricity while slashing emissions and reducing their reliance on fossil fuels.
Sails, Batteries And AI: What A Green Revolution In Maritime Transport Might Look Like
Today, the shipping sector accounts for around 3 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions – almost the same amount as the aviation industry. In Europe, it is even worse, and accounts for 14.2 percent of transport-related greenhouse gases, and about 4 percent of all emissions. The reason for this is that most ships are powered by heavy fuel oil, a dirty by-product of oil refining and one of the worst offenders when it comes to pollution and greenhouse gases. To come to terms with this, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set an ambitious target for the shipping industry of net-zero emissions by 2050.
Among the many solutions that have been studied in recent years, electrification is one of the most promising so far. As with cars, it would involve equipping a ship with a battery that would be recharged when docked in port. Another option is for vessels to switch to alternative fuels like biomethanol. In September, Danish shipping giant Maersk surprised the industry by presenting a 32,000-ton container ship (capable of carrying 2,100 containers) powered by biomethanol from forestry and agricultural waste. Aside from turning to greener fuels, another key lever is to make ships more energy efficient in and of themselves. This is where ship design would come in, with designers potentially equipping vessels with sails, propulsion-enhanced propellers and optimising their hull shapes.
Update: Nissan, Bridgestone, Serta, Spirit Aero Confirm Layoffs Amid Uncertain Demand
Nissan Motor Co. unveiled plans for massive job cuts last month, announcing 20,000 layoffs around the globe. The automaker will also close seven plants as part of the cost-cutting plan. The job cuts will take place by fiscal year 2027, according to the company. Nissan provided no details on which plants would be shuttered, but said impacted job functions would include direct and indirect roles and contractual positions in manufacturing, administrative, sales and research and development. The company also aims to streamline plant operations and cut capital expenses as it works to regain profitability by FY2026.
Tire manufacturer Bridgestone Americas confirmed plans to lay off 658 workers in La Vergne, Tennessee, beginning July 31. The company announced plans to shutter the La Vergne factory in January as it shifts operations to another plant in Morrison, Tennessee. Bridgestone cited the factory’s age and high output costs as reasons for the closure. The company has undergone multiple rounds of layoffs or other staff reductions over the past year — Bridgestone laid off 118 workers in Des Moines, Iowa last summer, and also offered buyouts to workers at the plant in January amid falling tractor demand.
Mattress maker Serta Simmons Bedding plans to lay off 180 workers from its factory in Moreno Valley, California, according to a May 6 Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification. The layoffs will begin July 5, according to the notice. Serta operates 18 manufacturing plants across the U.S. and Canada as one of the country’s largest bedding manufacturers. After filing for bankruptcy in 2023, the company has named several new executive leaders as part of a turnaround plan. Serta has opened at least one new factory since then, a 500,000-square-foot factory in Wisconsin.
Spirit AeroSystems is planning to furlough more workers at its Wichita, Kansas, facility starting this week, the company said in an email Monday. The temporary layoffs will impact approximately 300 employees and will last two to three weeks, Spirit AeroSystems spokesperson Joe Buccino said in an email. The latest round of furloughs adds to last month’s temporary layoffs for 300 workers, which Buccino said Spirit AeroSystems has already completed, as well as the 700 workers furloughed back in October 2024.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
FedEx Bumps Up Fuel Surcharge Rates
FedEx increased its fuel surcharge calculations on Monday, adding to the list of fee adjustments the logistics giant has made so far this month. The fuel surcharge hikes — generally around 200 basis points — apply to FedEx Ground, Home Delivery, International Ground, domestic package services and international imports and exports. Additionally, U.S. express freight services now have a higher per-pound surcharge rate.
FedEx sets its fuel fee prices each week, adjusting it based on average diesel and jet fuel costs. With the calculation changes, if the per-gallon price of diesel fuel is $3.74, a FedEx Ground shipment now incurs a 20.5% surcharge on fuel instead of an 18.5% surcharge. Fuel surcharge calculations tweaks have been common during this stretch. From Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, FedEx’s ground fuel surcharge jumped 12% as a result of the changes, despite diesel fuel prices falling by 8.4% over the same period, per the index.
Read more at Supply Chain Dive
Tesla’s Robotaxis Are Rolling Out Soon
Tesla could be launching its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in a matter of days after the automaker tested its self-driving Model Ys ahead of schedule. According to Bloomberg, Tesla is eyeing Thursday as the official launch date — with several caveats. For one, that timeline could still change. Secondly, only 10 self-driving electric vehicles will be in operation, with Teslarati reporting riders will need an invite from the company.
If realized, Tesla's robotaxi could be a major win for a brand reinventing itself around driverless vehicles and artificial intelligence. The company has found itself on bumpy roads at the outset of 2025, with plummeting stocks and a 13% year-over-year dip in EV deliveries in the first quarter of the year. Critics of Tesla's robotaxi worry that a June launch may be premature, as the automaker has well-documented struggles with its autonomous driving features. Recently, a pair of Business Insider writers had their Tesla robotaxi proceed through a red light in San Francisco.
Toyoda Defends Toyota’s Multi-Energy Strategy And Warns Against An EV-Only Future Approach
Electric vehicles may dominate headlines and political agendas, but the road to a cleaner future isn’t a one-way street. At least, not according to Toyota, the world’s best-selling brand and long-time champion of hybrid technology. While other automakers sprint toward full electrification, Toyota is still holding its ground, cautiously expanding its EV lineup while doubling down on hybrids.
In an recent interview with Automotive News, Toyoda said, “When the term carbon neutrality became popular, we said as a company the enemy is carbon. We have to focus on what we can do immediately to reduce carbon dioxide. That is the basis of our decision. It has not changed and will not change.” Toyoda also pointed to Toyota’s history with hybrid vehicles. “We have sold some 27 million hybrids,” he said. “Those hybrids have had the same impact as 9 million BEVs on the road. But if we were to have made 9 million BEVs in Japan, it would have actually increased the carbon emissions, not reduced them. That is because Japan relies on the thermal power plants for electricity.”