Member Briefing June 12, 2025
CPI = 2.4% - U.S. Inflation Up 0.1% In May From Prior Month, Less Than Expected
The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 2.4%.Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%, compared to forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Federal Reserve officials consider core a better measure of long-term trends, with several expressing concerns recently over the impact that tariffs would have on inflation.
Energy slipped 1% on the month, while new and used vehicle prices posted respective declines of 0.3% and 0.5%. Within energy, gasoline posted a 2.6% drop that took the year-over-year decrease to 12%.
The downside surprise in core inflation was also aided by other categories, including a drop in airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel.
Food increased 0.3% as did shelter, which the BLS said was the “primary factor” in the otherwise modest CPI increase. Egg prices fell 2.7% but were still up 41.5% from a year ago.
The shelter index rose 3.9% over the last year and 0.3% over the prior month in May. The index for rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) rose 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, over the prior month. Owners' equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay for the same property. It was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase, according to BLS.
IndustryWeek U.S. 500: Manufacturing Revenues, Profits Plunged in 2024:
2024 was a rough year for the largest manufacturers in the United States, but It’s not as bad as it looks. The 2025 IndustryWeek U.S. 500 list of the largest publicly held manufacturing companies in the country is heavily skewed by a handful of special cases that posted massive losses and dragged down the entire industry. Results reflect corporate performance for 2024, and while last year was a great one for manufacturing, it was probably better than the index numbers indicate. With those warnings, let’s get the numbers out of the way.
- Revenues: $6.37 trillion, up 0.86% from 2023
- Net income: $496 billion, down 12.8% from 2023
Taking out some of the big outliers, 2024’s results were very mildly positive. More than half of companies (55%) had higher sales last year than in 2023, and 53% had higher profits. As noted above, sales for the overall group grew slightly. That increase came mainly from raising prices on goods, but some industries had higher volumes of sales as well.
Fed ‘Beige Book’ Economic Report Cites Declining Growth, Rising Prices And Slow Hiring
The U.S. economy has contracted over the past six weeks as hiring has slowed and consumers and businesses worried about tariff-related price increases, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday. In its periodic “Beige Book” summary of conditions, the central bank noted that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report” released April 23. “All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” the report added.
Regionally, Boston, New York and Philadelphia all reported declining economic activity. Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago were among the districts reporting better growth. In New York specifically, the Fed found “heightened uncertainty” and input prices that “grew strongly with tariff-inducted cost increases. Richmond reported a slight increase in hiring despite Trump’s efforts to trim the federal government payroll.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Iran Threatens To Strike US Bases In Region If Military Conflict Arises – Reuters
- Iran Warns Of ‘Proportionate’ Response As IAEA Mulls Censure – Al Jazeera
- A Flawed Attempt at Delivering Gaza Aid Led to a Wave of Deaths - WSJ
- 'The Two-State Solution Is Going To Happen': Israel’s Olmert And Ex-Palestinian FM Qudwa – France 24
- US Warns Against Attending UN Conference On Israel-Palestinian Two-State Solution - Reuters
- Hamas Has Killed 50 Palestinian Fighters Armed By Israel In Gaza, Faction’s Associates Say – The Guardian
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- EU Faces Uphill Battle To Pass New Russia Sanctions – Politico
- Trump’s Joint Chiefs Chair Says Putin Won’t Stop At Ukraine – The Hill
- Deadly Russian Strikes Hit Kharkiv As Ukraine Brings Home Bodies Of 1,212 Soldiers – France 24
- Russian Economy Faces Collapsing Oil Profits, Non-Viable Refineries - Newsweek
- Russian Strikes In Ukraine Hit Kyiv And Kill Two In Odesa - BBC
- Russia’s Top Peace Negotiator Is Historian Who Justified the War - WSJ
- Hegseth: Ukraine Support Will Be Reduced – Defense Blog
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Coordinated Spate Of Bombings And Gun Attacks Rock Colombia – France 24
- Major Pakistan Defense Boost as China Military Ties Deepen - Newsweek
- Macron Says He’ll Ban Social Media For Under-15s In France - Politico
- China's Embassy In UK Accuses NATO Of 'Smearing And Scapegoating' - Reuters
- UK's Starmer Condemns Two Nights Of 'Mindless' Violence In Northern Ireland – France 24
- Poland’s Tusk Set To Win Confidence Vote, But Faces Uphill Slog To Govern - Politico
- South Korea Turns Off Propaganda Loudspeakers To North - BBC
- Philippine Senate Vote Plunges Sara Duterte Trial Into Turmoil – Nikkei Asia
- UN Pushes for 10,000 Ships To Track Ocean Changes – Inter Press Service
- Watch: Strawberry Moon Rises Behind The Parthenon In Athens - AP
Policy and Politics
China Deal: Tariffs On Goods Set At 55 Percent, Chinese Students Back In, US To Get Rare Earth Minerals
President Trump said Wednesday his administration reached a tentative agreement on a trade truce with China following talks between the two sides in London. As part of the agreement, which Trump said was pending his approval and the approval of Chinese President Xi Jinping, China will supply “full magnets, and any necessary rare earths,” Trump said on Truth Social. Trump indicated the U.S. would impose 55 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, while China would impose a 10 percent tariff on U.S. products.
“Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!),” Trump posted, describing the relationship between the two sides as “excellent.” The announcement comes after top Trump economic officials met in London with their Chinese counterparts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer represented the Trump administration.
Key House Republican To Meet With Senate Leadership Staff On SALT
Rep. Nick LaLota is meeting with staff for Senate Republican leadership today to discuss the state and local tax deduction, according to a person granted anonymity to describe the private meeting. It comes as Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) is set to brief Senate Republicans on Wednesday on the tax portion of President Donald Trump’s “big, beautful bill,” which was passed by the House in May. Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) is also set to brief the conference on scaled-down cuts to food aid programs in the legislation.
The sweeping, House-passed version of the GOP megabill bumped the SALT deduction from $10,000 to $40,000, with a new phase-out for higher earners. LaLota, of New York, was one of five blue state Republicans who pushed to increase the tax break, which is otherwise unpopular in the GOP conference. Senate Republicans have since indicated they want to lower the SALT cap back down, but LaLota has vowed to vote against the package if they do.
How Home Depot Became Ground Zero in Trump’s Deportation Push
President Trump’s immigration crackdown is starting to show up in and around the parking lots of Home Depot HD 0.74%increase; green up pointing triangle stores across the country. The usual crowds of day laborers have begun to dwindle, scared off by increasing and unannounced immigration raids. These laborers often lack legal status in the U.S. The Trump administration’s sweeping deportations threaten a symbiotic and contentious relationship that stretches back decades. The laborers provide a service for Home Depot’s customers—contractors and homeowners—in need of help on construction projects. Officially, Home Depot doesn’t endorse the activities.
Home Depot hasn’t been notified when immigration raids are happening around their stores and isn’t involved in any type of coordination with immigration officials, the company spokeswoman said. In April, Customs and Border Protection agents detained at least nine day laborers outside a Home Depot in Pomona, Calif. The agents had traveled to Pomona, where they arrested Martin Majin-Leon, a Mexican immigrant, at gunpoint in the parking lot of his business, according to court records. The agents then went to a nearby Home Depot for a debriefing, according to the court records. There, the agents saw day laborers trying to leave and arrested them.
- Read more at the WSJ
- Watch our Insight Exchange: Immigration Update: What Employers Need to Know - Otieno Ombok and Marissa Prianti of Jackson Lewis provide an overview of recent immigration executive orders. and their impact on employers. Available beginning 4/1.
Political Headlines
- Billionaire Walmart Heiress Promotes Nationwide Anti-Trump Protests – Forbes
- From Los Angeles To Washington, Trump Leans In As Commander In Chief - Politico
- Judge Rejects Newsom’s Emergency Request To Limit Trump LA Troop Deployment – The Hill
- Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Deporting Mahmoud Khalil Using Rubio Power - Reuters
- Newsom Leans Into L.A. Unrest to Position Himself as Leader of Opposition - WSJ
- Marines Poised To Move Into Los Angeles As Protests Spread Across US - Reuters
- Musk Says He Regrets His Posts Bashing Trump Last Week—‘Went Too Far’ - Forbes
- How the U.S. Government Borrows to Fund Its Massive Budget Shortfall - WSJ
- Trump Administration Set To Announce Rollback Of Power Plant Rules, Sources Say - Reuters
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Employee Wellbeing And Recognition: Why PwC Spent $22M To Bring Them Together
At professional services firm PwC, the people team is taking an innovative approach to supporting its workforce: marrying employee wellbeing and recognition—in a way that is ultimately enhancing the employee experience and becoming a critical employee retention and attraction tool.. The initiative recognizes employees who reach milestone tenures with a menu of rewards offerings. In its first year, the program recognized about 7,000 employees—supported by an organizational investment thus far of about $22 million.
“We created this program to be able to reward more of our employees, not just those who are promoted, and we wanted to give them options to choose what’s most important to them—based upon where they are in their lives,” Kim Jones, PwC talent strategy and people experience leader says. “People want to be recognized for the work hard they put in for PwC and for our clients—and they don’t want a one-size-fits-all approach.” Rewards vary by tenure and level, and are offered across four categories: employee wellbeing experiences, purpose-driven experiences, time away from work, cash options.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- Appeals Court Keeps Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs in Place for Now - WSJ
- China Puts Six-Month Limit on Its Ease of Rare-Earth Export Licenses - WSJ
- Trump Hails Favorable Federal Appeals Court Ruling On His Sweeping Tariff Policy As A ‘Great’ Win - AP
- Inflation Report Suggests Damage From Trump's Tariffs Isn't Guaranteed - Axios
- US Importers Turn To Brokers To Navigate Trump-Era Tariffs, At A Cost - Reuters
- The Latest Casualty of the Tariff War: Free Shipping - WSJ
- Japan Remains Cautious On Tariff Impact In June Econ Report - Reuters
- Trump’s Tariffs: Tracking The Status Of International Trade Actions –Supply Chain Dive
Consumer Debt Is Rising Fast. Is That Necessarily A Bad Thing?
The Federal Reserve reports that consumer credit in April rose by nearly $18 billion, or 4.3% on an annualized basis. That was a lot more than expected, and the biggest increase this year. “Consumer debt” includes credit cards, car loans, personal loans and student loans. Historically, consumer debt has tended to decrease at the beginning of the year, as people pay down what they charged up for the holidays, and tax refunds flow in. Then in the spring, spending on credit tends to pick up again. This spring, there’s an added factor: consumers spending and charging more on credit cards ahead of expected price hikes from tariffs.
Charges on credit cards soared in April, which is not necessarily a problem, said banking analyst Alexander Yokum at CFRA research. “As long as people are paying it back, credit card companies are actually pretty happy right now. If they were concerned about the consumer, about credit quality, you might see competition falling. But marketing budgets have been high,” he said.
GM To Invest $4 Billion In U.S. Plants Amid Tariffs For Mexican-Produced Vehicles
General Motors plans to invest $4 billion in three American assembly plants, including moving or increasing production of two Mexican-produced vehicles to U.S. plants. The Detroit automaker announced the plans Tuesday, as there have been few indications of progress in trade talks between the Trump administration and Mexican leaders. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump implemented 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and 25% tariffs on many auto parts imported into the U.S.
GM said the investment will add assembly of the gas-powered Chevrolet Blazer and Chevrolet Equinox that are currently produced in Mexico to two other plants in the U.S. and convert a large idled plant in Michigan — formerly expected to build all-electric trucks — to make gas-powered SUVs and trucks in 2027. “We believe the future of transportation will be driven by American innovation and manufacturing expertise,” GM CEO Mary Barra said in a release. “Today’s announcement demonstrates our ongoing commitment to build vehicles in the U.S and to support American jobs. We’re focused on giving customers choice and offering a broad range of vehicles they love.”
Nvidia CEO Says Quantum Computing Is Reaching An ‘Inflection Point’
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is growing more bullish about quantum computing — and he expects they’ll start solving real-world problems in the coming years.“Quantum computing is reaching an inflection point,” Jensen declared during his keynote speech at Nvidia’s GTC Paris developer conference Wednesday.Quantum computers are machines that use the laws of quantum mechanics to solve problems too complex for classical computers, which store information in bits (ones and zeroes).
“We are within reach” of being able to apply quantum computers “in areas that can solve some interesting problems in the coming years,” Huang added, as he talked up Nvidia’s own hybrid quantum-classical computing solution, Cuda Q. “This is a really exciting time.” This marks a more bullish view from the Nvidia boss on quantum, after Huang previously said he thinks a 15-year timeline for realizing useful quantum computers is “on the early side,” and that a 20-year timeframe was a likelier target.
IBM Announces New Quantum Processor, Plan For Starling Supercomputer To Be Built in Poughkeepsie By 2029
IBM on Tuesday announced a roadmap to develop a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer called Quantum Starling. Part of the company’s plan involves the new IBM Quantum Nighthawk processor, which is set to release later this year, according to a blog post announcing the details. The Quantum Nighthawk processor will replace the company’s Quantum Heron processor, the company said in the post. IBM said Nighthawk can run quantum circuits with 5,000 gates, like the Heron, but plans to boost it to 15,000 gates by 2028.
Quantum Starling will be built at the IBM Poughkeepsie Lab in New York. IBM’s new roadmap sets a timeline for building the components needed in the build, with a series of processors and adapters all named with the bird theme. Quantum computing has received more attention and investment in recent years as experts say they are getting closer to a device that can actually solve problems faster than a traditional computer based on semiconductors.
Trump FAA Nominee Vows To Hold Boeing 'Accountable'
President Donald Trump's nominee to head the Federal Aviation Administration vowed to hold Boeing accountable after a series of safety issues have raised questions about the U.S. planemaker.
Republic Airways CEO Bryan Bedford said at a Senate Commerce confirmation hearing there were "some really hard lessons learned" by the FAA about the failure of a key safety system tied to two fatal Boeing 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people. Bedford vowed to hold Boeing "accountable to deliver a high quality product safely... We can also help Boeing by not simply saying, 'This fails.' We can collaborate and tell them where the failures are and how we view remedies that can help Boeing move the process along a little bit quicker."
Eli Lilly Telehealth Partners Continue To Sell Compounded GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs Despite Agreement Not To
Telehealth partners for Eli Lilly continue to sell compounded GLP-1 weight-loss drugs despite an agreement with the pharma giant to end copycat sales after the FDA ended a years-long shortage of the branded products. Companies like Ro and Noom, which announced partnerships with Lilly in the past six months, are both still offering compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs. That includes competitor Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, which is also part of Lilly's agreement. Telehealth companies rushed to sell cheaper copycats when the branded drugs, such as Lilly's Zepbound and Novo's Wegovy, were in short supply starting in 2022.
The FDA declared an end to Lilly's drug shortage in December and Novo's drugs earlier this year. The base chemical ingredients for each, tirzepatide for Lilly and semaglutide for Novo, were sold by compounding pharmacies that would mix them in vials and sell them through telehealth companies and medispas. They could do so at a significant discount because vials are cheaper to produce than the branded injectables, making them a popular option for cash-paying patients. But when the FDA declared an end to the shortage, it closed the loophole that allowed compounders to produce copycats.
Apple Executives Defend Apple Intelligence, Siri and AI Strategy
For years, Apple events felt haunted by the ghost of Steve Jobs. This week, a different ghost hovered: Siri. A year ago, on this same sunny and pristine Apple Park campus at the Worldwide Developers Conference, the company unveiled its grand vision for artificial intelligence. After announcing new operating systems this week, Apple executives are defending the company’s AI strategy. Big time. In fact, they are now saying the company is rebuilding Siri from the ground up.
“Apple Intelligence” was a suite of generative-AI tools with an exciting centerpiece: a Siri that was finally smart. Some Siri features arrived, but the coolest—where Siri can respond to things you’re doing on your phone, as if it were your sidekick—never did. Apple quietly pulled plans, even stifling an ad it had run to hype the feature. “This stuff takes hard work, but we do see AI as a long-term transformational wave as one that’s going to affect our industry and of course our society for decades to come,” Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering, told me in an interview at the company’s headquarters. “There’s no need to rush out with the wrong features and the wrong product just to be first.”
AESC Halts Construction On $1.6B Battery Cell Facility In South Carolina
Electric vehicle battery cell maker AESC is pausing construction of its $1.6 billion factory due to “policy and market uncertainty,” company spokesperson Brad Grantham said in an emailed statement Tuesday AESC will evaluate market conditions and anticipates it will “resume construction once circumstances stabilize,” Grantham added. “AESC fully intends to meet our commitments to invest $1.6 billion and create 1,600 jobs in the coming years,” Grantham said in a statement.
The Japan-based EV battery maker announced plans in 2024 to expand the Florence County, South Carolina, site. AESC said it was investing $1.5 billion to build a second facility that will service BMW’s assembly operations in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, where the automaker will build the next generation of its Neue Klasse EV model beginning in 2027. However, AESC withdrew its plans for the second facility earlier this year, informing the state’s Department of Commerce that it no longer has a fixed timeline for carrying out the project, according to State Fiscal Accountability Authority documents.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Travelers Report: Workplace Injuries Decline
The frequency of workplace injuries overall has declined over the past decade, according to the 2025 Injury Impact Report, from The Travelers Companies, Inc. The insurance company examined 1.2 million workers' compensation claims received during the past five years, down from 1.4 million from 2015 through 2019. The report identified three specific trends:
Workplace Turnover and First-Year Employees - There were many shifts in the workplace over the last 10 years, including continued job churn during and after the pandemic. This created a steady stream of new employees, who are among the most vulnerable to injury. The report found that employees in their first year on the job accounted for approximately 36% of injuries and 34% of overall claim costs during the last five years. This is an increase from the prior five years, when 34% of injuries and 32% of overall claim costs were attributed to new employees.
An Aging Workforce - Travelers has seen the volume of claims involving older employees rise in line with this shift. During the past five years, employees aged 50 or older made up 41% of the injured employee population, and those 60 and above represented 16%. This is up from 39% and 13%, respectively, when compared with data from 2015 through 2019. This trend is significant because older employees, while typically injured less frequently than their younger counterparts, tend to require longer recovery times and have more costly claims.
Lengthier Recovery Times - From 2020 through 2024, employees missed an average of 80 workdays per injury – an increase of more than seven days when compared with the previous five-year period. Injured employees aged 60 and above were out of work due to workplace injuries for nearly 97 days, almost 17 more days than the overall average and an increase of 14 days from pre-pandemic years.