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Member Briefing June 17, 2025

June 17, 2025

Posted By: Harold King in Daily Briefing,

Top Story

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: June Shows 4^th Straight Month of Decline

Business activity continued to decline in New York State in June, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -16.0.

The new orders index fell to -14.2, and the shipments index moved down to around zero, pointing to a decline in both orders and shipments.
Delivery times were little changed, while the supply availability index remained below zero at -8.3, suggesting that supply availability continued to worsen.
The index for number of employees rose ten points to 4.7, its first positive reading since January and a sign that employment increased slightly.
After reaching its highest level in more than two years in May, the prices paid index fell twelve points to 46.8, suggesting that the pace of price increases slowed but remained significant.
The prices received index edged up four points to 26.6, suggesting that selling price increases accelerated somewhat.
The index for future general business conditions climbed twenty-three points to 21.2.
New orders and shipments are expected to increase, but capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at NY Fed

The Steel Industry Is Having A Moment — Thanks In Large Part To Tariffs – Other Manufacturers Pay the Price

President Donald Trump’s latest steel and aluminum tariffs doubled the previous tariffs on imports of those metals to 50%. Those import taxes will, no doubt, be tough on a lot of sectors of this economy, and, by extension, U.S. consumers. But the American steel industry is welcoming the new tariffs. In fact, domestic steel producers have been investing in new capacity ever since Trump first imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum back in 2018.

“Assets are being built and turned on and ramped up in the U.S.,” said Josh Spoores, head of Steel Americas Analysis with CRU Group. Spoores said a big reason is that between those tariffs, and all of the supply chain congestion early in the pandemic, steel prices rose. As a result, steel makers wanted to cash in. But even though the domestic steel industry is being protected by the Trump administration’s tariffs, the manufacturing sector, which buys steel, is going to end up paying more for it. That’s because tariffs will lead to higher steel prices across the board, said Teresa Fort, an economics professor at Dartmouth College. “When your costs go up, you have to raise prices, and then consumers buy less, and so those firms end up shrinking. All the firms that rely on steel as an input will shrink.

Read more at Marketplace

Over-The-Year Real Earnings Growth For Production Employees Continues To Outpace Gains For All Employees

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.3% from April to May, resulting from a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1% gain in inflation. Meanwhile, real average weekly earnings increased 0.3% due to the change in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek. In the past year, real average hourly earnings grew 1.4% while the average workweek was unchanged, resulting in a 1.5% increase in real average weekly earnings compared to the prior year.

For production and nonsupervisory employees, real average hourly earnings grew 0.3% in May, resulting from a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings and a 0.1% increase in inflation. Real average weekly earnings for this group edged up 0.3% over the month due to the change in hourly earnings and no change in the average workweek. In the past year, real average hourly earnings for this group climbed 1.8%, and the average workweek was unchanged, resulting in a 1.8% increase in real average weekly earnings over the year.

Read more at the BLS

Global Headlines

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Policy and Politics

Senate Trims SALT, Cuts More Medicaid in Proposed Changes to Trump Megabill

Senate Republicans detailed major revisions of the House’s giant tax-and-spending bill, offering more permanent business tax breaks, deeper cuts to Medicaid, slower phaseouts for clean-energy tax credits and a much lower cap on the state and local tax deduction. Senate Republicans are trying to pass the bill as soon as next week with the aim of getting a final deal back through the House and to President Trump’s desk by July 4. The bill’s release kick-starts a period of intense negotiations in the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority.

The Senate’s proposed changes released Monday are more than cosmetic and, in some cases, they challenge the fragile agreement that united the House GOP’s wings around the legislation. In the Senate update, conservatives scored more spending reductions from Medicaid but saw backsliding on their demands for quick cutoffs to clean-energy tax credits. The core of the Senate tax and health bill is largely the same as the version that squeaked through the House last month. It would extend the bulk of the 2017 tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire Dec. 31 if Congress does nothing. Moderates will look at the bill and see the reverse—victories on renewable energy and Medicaid cuts that could pose challenges for rural hospitals they wanted to protect.

Read more at The Hill

DiNapoli Releases Analysis of Enacted State Budget

The Enacted Budget for State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2025-26 is projected to total $254 billion, a 5.2% increase in spending at a time when new federal actions on funding and policy may change the relationship between the federal government and states. Actions that have already occurred at the federal level, paired with potential Congressional action, may mean that in the upcoming months New York will see challenges to the recently Enacted State Budget, according to a report by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. The state has not taken any significant cost containment measures or implemented a strategy for addressing federal cuts, so how these risks will be reflected in DOB’s Enacted Budget Financial Plan for the next four years remains to be seen.

All Funds spending in SFY 2025-26 is projected to total $254 billion, an increase of $12.5 billion from $241.5 billion in SFY 2024-25. State Operating Fund spending is expected to grow 9.3%, continuing a recent trend of significant growth. Between SFY 2019-20 and SFY 2024-2025, State Operating Funds spending grew 4.6% annually on average – more than double the preceding 5-year period. The big two items in state spending – School Aid and Medicaid – are the primary drivers of these increases. The Enacted Budget provides $37.4 billion in School Aid on a School Year (SY) basis, an increase of $209 million (0.6%) over the Executive Budget and $1.7 billion (4.9%) over SY 2025.

Read more at The Comptroller’s Website

Credit Scores Decline For Millions As US Student Loan Collections Restart

Millions of Americans are seeing their credit scores suffer now that the U.S. government has resumed referring missed student loan payments for debt collection. After 90 days of non-payment, student loan servicers report delinquent, or past-due, accounts to major credit bureaus, which use the information to recalculate the borrower’s score. Falling behind on loan payments therefore can affect an individual’s credit rating as severely as filing for personal bankruptcy.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that in the first three months of 2025, 2.2 million student loan recipients saw their scores drop by 100 points, and an additional 1 million had drops of 150 points or more. The U.S. Department of Education paused federal student loan payments in March 2020, offering borrowers relief during the economic chaos of the coronavirus pandemic. Though payments technically resumed in 2023, the Biden administration provided a one-year grace period that ended in October 2024. Last month, the Trump administration restarted the collection process for outstanding student loans, with plans to seize wages and tax refunds if the loans continue to go unpaid.

Read more at the Hill

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

RFK Jr. Appoints Vaccine Critics To Federal Immunization Committee

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced eight new members of an expert panel that advises the federal government on immunization policy, including several vocal vaccine critics and one who identifies as an “anti-vaxxer.” The newly reconstituted panel includes numerous scientists with less conventional views. Several weren’t aware of their appointments when contacted by Bloomberg. The health secretary, at a showing of Les Misérables at the Kennedy Center in DC on Wednesday, said he changed the makeup of the panel “because the American people deserve it” and because of financial entanglements among the members.

The new members, including one who claimed Covid shots were causing AIDS and a nurse who became an advocate after saying her child suffered long-term health damage from immunizations, are in a position to revamp vaccine use in the US. The group’s positions are used to help determine what shots are given and whether insurers pay for them, among other things.

Read more at BenefitsPro

Industry News

Trade War Updates

China's May Factory Output Slows, Retail Sales Surprisingly Upbeat

China's industrial output rose 5.8% year-on-year in May, slowing from the 6.1% pace in April and missing forecasts, but retail sales growth unexpectedly picked up, official data showed on Monday. The industrial output data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), missed expectations for a 5.9% increase in a Reuters poll and marked the slowest growth since November last year.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose 6.4% in May, compared to 5.1% growth in April. It was the quickest growth since December 2023. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 5.0%. Fixed asset investment expanded 3.7% in the first five months this year from the same period a year earlier, compared with the expectations for a 3.9% rise. It grew 4.0% in the January to April period.

Read more at Reuters

Paris Air Show 2025: As It Happens

The Paris Air Show is back again, running from June 16th to 22nd. The event is held every two years and, alongside the Farnborough International Airshow, which takes place in between, it represents one of the biggest events on the European aviation calendar. The first four days are reserved for trade visitors, before the show is opened up to the general public on Friday and at the weekend.

Held at Le Bourget Airport (LBG), which is situated just to the northeast of the French capital and not too far from the major hub of Paris Charles De Gaulle Airport (CDG), the show expects to handle 300,000 unique visitors, with more than 2,500 exhibitors present. Among these are some of the world's largest airlines and manufacturers, meaning that such an event will be ripe for high-profile orders. Simple Flying will be on the ground in Paris, bringing you all the latest developments alongside our team back at home.

Read more at Simple Flying

Lockheed, Boeing Tout Golden Dome Credentials At Paris Air Show

Lockheed Martin and Boeing said on Monday they are positioning themselves to secure a significant share of U.S. President Donald Trump's Golden Dome missile defense system, as competition intensifies over what could become one of the world's largest defense contracts. While the program envisions cutting-edge technologies such as space-based interceptors and directed-energy weapons, many of the early systems are expected to come from existing defense platforms. That puts established players like L3Harris Technologies (LHX.N), opens new tab, Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX Corp in contention for early contracts.

Lockheed Martin already supplies systems that could be integrated into Golden Dome, including C2BMC missile detection and command system, the PAC-3 advanced air defense missile and the THAAD interceptor. At a separate media briefing at the air show, Boeing's interim CEO for space and defense, Steve Parker, said the company had done "a lot of work" on Golden Dome, without going into details. Boeing has developed compact laser weapons capable of downing drones and potentially intercepting missiles and it produces components for the PAC-3 missile, including seekers.

Read more at Simple Flying

Getting Ahead of Heat Stress Risks on the Job

Heatwaves are rapidly evolving into occupational hazards. From construction sites and oil rigs to mines and manufacturing floors, frontline workers are increasingly exposed to extreme temperatures that threaten their health and safety. Federal regulation is moving slowly, but the need for action is immediate. Environmental, health, and safety (EHS) leaders must take proactive steps now to stay ahead of policy changes and protect their workforce.

Proactive heat stress prevention starts with education. A dedicated heat stress prevention plan is the cornerstone of preparedness. It should include protocols for identifying heat hazards, monitoring environmental conditions, and responding to incidents. Understanding the symptoms and causes of heat stress, as well as how to identify it when it occurs, is fundamental. Comprehensive heat stress training should include topics such as: Risk factors, the different kinds of heat-related illnesses and how to identify them, how to administer first aid, proper hydration techniques, preventative measures like acclimation, procedures for contacting emergency medical services if needed.

Read more at EHS Today

Airbus Forecasts Near-Term Uncertainty for Growth

Airbus has adjusted its 20-year outlook for commercial aircraft demand to reflect “short-term uncertainties,” while maintaining a bullish outlook on growth for the sector. The manufacturer anticipates a total of 43,420 new passenger and cargo aircraft will be delivered during the 2025-2045 period, which is 2.3% more than it forecast (42,430 new aircraft) in its 2024 20-year outlook. However, that 2.3% increase will be lower year-by-year than the 3.9% rate forecast last year.

The “uncertainties” referred to in the Airbus announcement apparently are the tariffs being proposed that may impede global trade: presumably, this is also the reason Airbus discounts its GDP forecast from 2.6% per year in the previous 20-year outlook, to the from 2.5% per year it projects now. The growth drivers that Airbus identifies remain on track with past outlooks, including an increase in business and leisure travel shaped by expanding middle-class populations; and growing GDP rates and an accompanying growth in global commerce. It’s notable that Airbus is forecasting GDP rates to average 2.5% annually, though in its 2024 outlook it put that figure slightly higher at 2.6%.

Read more at American Machinist

US to Ease Rules Hindering Tesla’s Self-Driving Cybercab

According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is streamlining the exemption process for automakers seeking to deploy self-driving cars designed without traditional steering wheels or brake pedals. This regulatory shift could significantly benefit Tesla’s ambitions to launch its robotaxi service. Current federal safety standards effectively require new vehicles to include human driving controls, forcing companies developing autonomous vehicles to seek exemptions - a process that has created substantial delays for manufacturers.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced it will simplify the exemption procedure, which previously resulted in processing times that could stretch for years. In a letter posted to its website on Friday, NHTSA Chief Counsel Peter Simshauser stated the agency "anticipates reaching decisions on most exemption requests within months rather than years." The regulatory changes align with Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s previously announced plans to develop a fleet of self-driving "Cybercabs" that could compete directly with traditional ride-sharing services.

Read more at Investing

Deere Must Face FTC’s Right-To-Repair Lawsuit, Judge Rules

Deere & Co. must face a lawsuit brought by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission alleging that the tractor maker forced farmers to use its authorized dealers for parts and repairs, a federal judge ruled last week. Judge Ian Johnston found enough support within the plaintiffs’ arguments, brought forth by the FTC and five other states alleging anticompetitive behavior, to deny Deere’s effort to end the lawsuit, according to a 27-page order filed June 10 in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Western Division.

The ruling clears the way for a trial expected to begin later this year, but a date has not been set yet. Deere sought to dismiss the complaint in March after claims were brought against the company in mid-January, during the end of the Biden administration. If Deere is found liable, the company may be forced to change its repair policies and make its resources more available to customers.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Air India Completes One-Time Checks On 9 Boeing 787 Aircraft After Fatal Crash

Air India has completed safety inspections on nine of its Boeing 787 Dreamliners as part of a one-time directive issued by India's civil aviation regulator. The checks follow the recent fatal crash of Air India Flight 171, which marked the first-ever hull loss involving a Boeing 787. Following the incident, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) instructed Air India to conduct detailed inspections of its 787-8 and -9 fleet.

Currently, the airline is continuing checks on the remaining 24 aircraft. The added maintenance procedures, while temporary, require longer ground time between arrivals and subsequent departures; this might affect flight schedules. It has advised passengers to check the status of their flights and is offering refunds on cancellation or complimentary rescheduling to those who opt for it.

Read more at Simple Flying

New Pluto-Like Planet Discovered In Solar System — What To Know

Astronomers have found a distant celestial body — potentially a dwarf planet — orbiting the sun from more than twice as far as Pluto. Found by astronomers at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, it’s one of the most distant solar system bodies observed with optical telescopes. It takes 25,000 years to orbit the sun — and it could be the first of many new objects to be found in the outer solar system.

2017 OF201 is estimated to be 435 miles (700 kilometers) in diameter. That’s smaller than Pluto’s 1,477 miles (2,377 kilometers), but if its size is confirmed using radio telescopes, 2017 OF201 will become the largest object in the outer solar system found in more than a decade. It’s classed as an “extreme” trans-Neptunian object, which is an icy body orbiting beyond Neptune in the solar system. The largest TNOs known are Eris, followed by Pluto, Haumea, Makemake and Gonggong.

Read more at Forbes

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