Member Briefing March 18, 2025
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Business Conditions ‘Dropped Significantly’ in March
Business activity dropped significantly in New York State in March, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-six points to -20.0.
- The new orders index fell twenty-six points to -14.9,
- The shipments index fell twenty-three points to -8.5, indicating that both orders and shipments declined after increasing last month.
- The inventories index moved up five points to 13.3, its highest reading in more than two years, signaling that business inventories continued to expand.
- The index for number of employees held steady at -4.1, and the average workweek index was -2.5, pointing to a slight decline in both employment and hours worked.
- The prices paid index rose five points to 44.9, its highest level in more than two years,
- The prices received index rose three points to 22.4, its highest reading since May 2023.
- After dropping fifteen points last month, the index for future business activity fell another ten points to 12.7.
- Capital spending plans remained soft. Input price increases are expected to remain significant, and supply availability is expected to contract somewhat in the months ahead.
OECD: Trade War To Sap Canadian, Mexican And US Growth
President Donald Trump's tariff hikes will drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the United States while driving up inflation, the OECD forecast on Monday, cutting its global economic outlook and warning that a broader trade war would sap growth further. In the case of a generalised trade shock, not only will U.S. households pay a high direct price, but the likely economic slowdown will cost the United States more than the extra income the tariffs are supposed to generate, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated in its interim outlook.Global growth is on course to slow slightly from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, the Paris-based policy forum said, cutting its projections from 3.3% for both this year and next in its previous economic outlook, issued in December.
The organisation updated its forecasts assuming tariffs between the United States and its neighbours are raised an extra 25 percentage points on almost all goods imports from April. As a result, U.S. economic growth was seen slowing this year to 2.2% before losing more steam next year to only 1.6%, the OECD said, cutting its forecasts from 2.4% and 2.1% previously. But the Mexican economy would be hit hardest by the tariff hikes, contracting 1.3% this year and a further 0.6% next year instead of growing 1.2% and 1.6% as previously expected. Canada's growth rate would slow to 0.7% this year and next, well below the 2% previously forecast for both years.
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% In February
Retail sales increased 0.2% on the month, better than the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior month but below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.6% rise, according to the advanced reading Monday from the Commerce Department. Excluding autos, the increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations. The sales number is adjusted for seasonal factors but not for inflation. Prices rose 0.2% on the month, according to a previous Labor Department report, indicating that spending was about on pace with inflation. The so-called control group, which strips out noncore sectors and feeds directly into gross domestic product calculations, rose a better-than-expected 1%.
Online spending helped boost the sales number for the month, with nonstore retailers reporting a 2.4% increase. Health and personal care showed a 1.7% gain while food and beverage outlets saw a 0.4% rise. On the downside, bars and restaurants reported a 1.5% decrease, while gas stations were off 1% amid falling prices at the pump. Sales overall increased 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, better than the 2.8% inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israeli Strikes Kill Hundreds, Tilting Gaza Back Toward War - WSJ
- Trump Ratchets Up Threats Against Iran Over Houthi Ties After Ordering Strikes Against Yemeni Rebel Group – Forbes
- US Rejects 'Impractical' Hamas Demands As Gaza Truce Hangs In Balance - BBC
- Netanyahu Moves To Oust Domestic Security Chief Amid Tensions Over Oct.7 Attacks – France 24
- In Yemen Strikes, Trump Takes On a Group That Has Outlasted Powerful Foes - WSJ
- Un Warns Against Us Houthis Escalation – France 24
- Witkoff Says Administration Is ‘Exploring’ Alternatives For Gaza Relocation – The Hill
- Houthis Claim Attacks on U.S. Aircraft Carrier: What We Know - Newsweek
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Trump Set to Talk With Putin Today on Ending Ukraine War - WSJ
- Advanced Drone Tactics Drove Ukrainian Troops Out Of Kursk. - Forbes
- Ukraine Open To Russia Sanctions Relaxation As Part Of Peace Deal– Politico
- 'Everything Is Finished': Ukrainian Troops Relive Retreat From Kursk - BBC
- Russia Responds To Plan for Peacekeepers in Ukraine - Newsweek
- Putin's Biggest Allies in Europe Face Political Peril - Newsweek
- The Olympics’ Big Quandary: Let Russian Athletes Participate Or Not? - Forbes
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Top Chinese Military Official Close to Xi Rumored To Have Been Arrested – Newsweek
- Canada’s New PM Carney Hails 'Reliable Allies' After Meeting With Macron – France 24
- Italy's Release Of A Warlord Puts Meloni's Entanglements With Libya Under Scrutiny - Politico
- China Says It Started Year on Strong Economic Footing as Trump Tariffs Hit - WSJ
- Thousands Rally For Brazil's Ex-President Bolsonaro As He Faces Coup Charges – France 24
- Rwanda Severs Ties With Belgium Over 'Neo-Colonial Delusions' - BBC
- Argentina's GDP Seen Growing In Q4 After Shrinking For Six Quarters – Yahoo Finance
- Defense Giants Want Von der Leyen To Boost Made-In-Europe Tech – Politico
Policy and Politics
New York State Business Groups Oppose HEAT Act
More than 20 New York Statewide and Regional Business groups, led by the NYS Business Council, penned a letter to legislators and administration officials opposing passage of the “Home Energy Affordable Transition” (HEAT) Act. “The undersigned organizations continue to support efforts to respond to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including increased energy efficiency and expanded renewable generation, among others approaches. However, we are increasingly focused on assuring that the New York’s transition to a lower GHG emission economy is workable, affordable, and avoids imposing significant adverse impacts on the state’s economy, individual businesses, and residents.” The letter reads.
”Importantly, the state’s electric grid needs significant upgrades and expansions to accommodate the shifting of building and transportation energy demand from the direct consumption of fossil fuels to electric power (increasingly from non-emitting sources.) The state needs a dramatic increase in non-emitting electric production and storage capacity to meet system supply and reliability needs under the CLCPA’s decarbonization goals. Expedited contraction of the natural gas distribution system would only make these other transition efforts more economically disruptive and costly.”
Read the letter
Ex-U.S. Rep. Nita Lowey, A New York Democrat Who Chaired Powerful House Appropriations Committee, Dies
Former U.S. Rep. Nita Lowey, a long serving New York Democrat who was the first woman to chair the powerful House Appropriations Committee, has died. She was 87. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who served with Lowey in Congress, ordered flags flown at half-staff Sunday through Monday in honor of her former colleague. Lowey's family, in a statement, said she died Saturday after battling metastatic breast cancer with the “same tenacity and strength that she fought throughout her 32-year career in Congress for women, children and families." The family said she passed away peacefully in her home in Harrison, New York, surrounded by her husband, children and grandchildren.
“A public servant in the truest sense, she was guided by the Jewish core value of ‘Tikkun Olam,’ repairing the world,” the family's statement read. “She was an indefatigable fighter and worked across the aisle to deliver results for her constituents and all Americans." Lowey represented suburban communities north of New York City, including parts of Westchester and Rockland Counties and the Hudson River Valley. She was elected to Congress in 1988 and served until she opted to retire rather than seek reelection in 2020.
Read more at NY State of Politics
After Elon Musk’s Delaware Exit, State Lawmakers Weigh Bill To Overhaul Corporate Law
Tesla CEO Elon Musk turned Delaware’s corporate law into a hot-button topic last year after a judge there ruled that his $56 billion pay package from 2018 was illegally granted and should be rescinded. Musk became an outspoken critic of Delaware’s judiciary, moving the site of incorporation for Tesla and his other companies out of the state while encouraging others to follow suit. Dropbox moved its site of incorporation to Nevada, and Bill Ackman said his Pershing Square Capital Management would exit Delaware. Meta and Walmart are reportedly considering leaving.
After a flurry of such announcements, Delaware’s Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend, a corporate attorney by trade and former clerk for Delaware’s Court of Chancery, began looking into the matter with fellow elected leaders. He then moved to sponsor a bill, known as SB 21, aimed at making Delaware a more attractive state for businesses. Last week, the state Senate voted to pass an amended version of SB 21. If it passes Delaware’s House of Representatives, in a vote expected next week, and gets signed by the governor, the bill would change the state’s corporate law. Notably, it would alter how companies can use independent directors and other officials to ensure deals they’ve made will pass muster in court, and limit the records that shareholders can obtain from companies.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- HUD, Interior Announce Plan To Use Federal Land For Affordable Housing – The Hill
- Trump Says 'No Intention' to Ease Steel, Aluminum Tariffs – IndustryWeek
- Trump Lays Groundwork For Investigating People Pardoned By Biden - WSJ
- White House Denies Defying Judge's Order Over Deportations To El Salvador - BBC
- Democratic Party’s Favorability Hits Record Low: Poll – The Hill
- The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Firing Spree - WSJ
- Trump Moves To Close Down Voice Of America - BBC
- Ocasio-Cortez Leads Poll Of Democrats On Which Leader ‘Best Reflects’ Party’s ‘Core Values’ – The Hill
- Law Students Mourn Loss Of ‘Dream Jobs’ After Government Offers Disappear: ‘I Was Distraught’ - CNBC
- Goldman Sachs Cuts Oil Price Forecast – Yahoo Finance
- The Trump Tracker, Stay Up To Date on the First 100 Days – WSJ
Health and Wellness
UN Agency Warns Of ‘Unprecedented’ Bird Flu Threat As H5N1 Virus Jumps To Mammals
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is raising the alarm over a rapidly escalating bird flu crisis as the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus spreads from poultry to mammals, fueling concerns over food security and a potential human spillover. The virus, first identified in 1996 in China, has forced mass culls worldwide, with Europe losing 47.7 million farmed birds in the 2021-22 epidemic and the U.S. culling at least 166 million since the latest outbreak began. FAO officials are urging governments to ramp up surveillance, strengthen biosecurity and bolster outbreak response.
FAO Deputy Director-General Godfrey Magwenzi on Monday described the situation as unprecedented, leading to “serious impacts” on food production, rural jobs, local economies and prices for consumers. The virus isn’t stopping at poultry barns. H5N1 has also surfaced in wild and domestic mammals, including zoo animals, pets and dairy cattle. While human infections remain rare, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) have identified genetic markers that could increase the virus’s ability to adapt to mammals — including humans. However, there is no confirmed evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.
Industry News
Trump Nixes $17.75 Minimum Wage For Federal Contractors Adopted By Biden
President Donald Trump has rescinded an executive order issued by his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, that required businesses that contract with the federal government to pay workers a minimum wage of $17.75 an hour. Trump, a Republican, late on Friday repealed, opens new tab nearly 20 Biden-era memos and executive orders touching on a range of topics, including the 2021 mandate that significantly raised pay for workers on federal contracts.
Trump on Friday also eliminated Biden orders that had made it easier for companies to win federal contracts if they vowed to remain neutral in union campaigns and participated in government-approved apprenticeship programs. Trump did not explain why he repealed the orders. Critics of Biden's wage mandate, including many business groups and Republicans, have said it made it more difficult for smaller businesses to compete for contracts and that the required wage was too high to be applied in areas of the country with lower costs of living. A pair of appeals court rulings that had upheld Biden's order against challenges by businesses and Republican-led states could still be a boon to Trump if he uses his powers over federal procurement to implement other parts of his agenda, such as eliminating corporate diversity initiatives. The U.S. Supreme Court in January declined to review one of those decisions.
What Is Revenge Quitting? Gen Z Driving New Career Trend
Employee satisfaction is rapidly decreasing, and employee resentment is rapidly rising. The Glassdoor Worklife Trends 2025 Report found that 65 percent of employees are feeling trapped in their current roles and employee satisfaction with career opportunities has dropped over the past two years across 10 industries. As bitterness increases, employees are moving to leave jobs, which is nothing new. But what is new is how they're doing it. People aren't just quitting their jobs and leaving calmly. Instead, they're slamming the door on their way out. Enter: the revenge quitter.
Revenge quitting is when employees who feel undervalued or frustrated leave their jobs in a way that is abrupt and designed to cause as much chaos and dismay as possible. "I believe the manager-Gen Z-employee relationship is one of the most critical factors in preventing or mitigating the risk of 'revenge quitting,'" Keri Mesropov the founder of Spring Talent Development, said. "Burnout has been the leading case of 'revenge quitting' and managers are in a unique position to assess and address each employee. Burnout is a major problem for Gen Z; according to a 2024 survey from UKG, 83 percent of Gen Z employees were struggling with burnout, and more than one-third said they'd quit their job because of negative impacts on their well-being.
PepsiCo Buys Prebiotic Soda Brand Poppi For Nearly $2 Billion
PepsiCo said Monday that it is buying prebiotic soda brand Poppi for nearly $2 billion. While soda consumption has broadly fallen over the last two decades in the U.S., prebiotic sodas, fueled by industry newcomers Poppi and Olipop, have won over health-conscious consumers over the last five years. The category’s growth makes it attractive for Pepsi and its rival, Coca-Cola, which recently launched its own prebiotic soda brand, Simply Pop. Pepsi had reportedly aimed to launch its own functional soda under its Soulboost brand, but it cancelled those plans, likely paving the way to a deal with Poppi.
Poppi’s founders Allison and Stephen Ellsworth launched the brand back in 2018, the same year that Olipop was founded. Poppi’s formula includes apple cider vinegar, prebiotics and just five grams of sugar. Pepsi said it plans to acquire the upstart Poppi for $1.95 billion. The deal includes $300 million of anticipated cash tax benefits, making the net purchase price $1.65 billion. Pepsi will also have to make additional payments if Poppi achieves certain performance milestones within a set time frame after the acquisition closes. The company did not say when the deal is expected to close, pending regulatory approval.
Honeywell Secure Pilot Program Contract To Develop AUKUS Submarine Industrial Base
Honeywell has secured a contract to deliver the AUKUS Submarine Industrial Base (SIB) pilot program. Under the program, Honeywell will establish an enhanced security framework that will underpin a safer, more secure, reliable and effective technology transfer to activate Australian Industry to support the conventionally armed, nuclear-powered Virginia–Class Submarine production, sustainment, and operational readiness.
Following the contract award, Honeywell will support the AUKUS SIB pilot program team by establishing a secure network of suppliers and partners to support production and operation submarine fleet. The AUKUS enhanced trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States was announced in 2021 and is designed to support security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. One of the priorities for the AUKUS partnership is to develop the nuclear stewardship required to grow Australia’s ability to secure the supply chain for the Virginia–Class Submarine programs. This will involve a network of suppliers and partners powered by a local workforce of more than 30,000 people in Australia and 100,000 in the United States.
Merck Invests $1B To Open Vaccine Manufacturing Facility In North Carolina
Merck has opened a new vaccine manufacturing facility in Durham, North Carolina. The company, which develops and produces medicines and vaccines, invested $1 billion into the facility. This expansion is expected to create significant new job opportunities in the region. The 225,000-square-foot facility will produce vaccines and is designed with advanced technologies that support efficient and flexible manufacturing processes.
These technologies include data analytics, generative AI, and 3D printing, which will help improve production and innovation. A training center equipped with a digital twin will also be used to simulate process changes and accelerate employee training.
Audi to Cut 7,500 Jobs in Germany to Become More Efficient
Audi said it will cut 7,500 jobs by 2029 following discussions with the works council as it looks to improve its future competitiveness. The luxury car manufacturer–which is part of the Volkswagen Group said Monday that the job cuts form part of its efforts to improve productivity, speed and flexibility as its refocuses its portfolio and reduces bureaucracy. “Economic conditions are becoming increasingly tougher, competitive pressure and political uncertainties are presenting the company with immense challenges,” Audi said.
In light of the challenges, Audi and the works council have agreed to what they called socially responsible job cuts. They also agreed to extend the company’s job protection plan until the end of 2033.Audi said the measures will help it achieve medium-term savings of more than 1 billion euros ($1.08 billion) annually. Audi said it is flattening its management structure to three levels and is examining where digitalization can help reduce workloads. The car maker employs more than 87,000 people worldwide, with 54,000 in Germany, according to its website.
GE Aerospace Awarded $5B for Jet Engines
The U.S. Dept. of Defense awarded $5 billion to GE Aerospace in a new contract to produce and service an undetermined number of F110 engines over a five-year period, through December 31, 2030. GE Aerospace will supply engines, spare parts, and associated services, including updated engine monitoring system computers, according to a DoD announcement.
The F110 is an afterburning turbofan jet engine in production through a series of models since the 1980s. The new assignment covers F110-129 engines for Boeing F-15 and Lockheed F-16 fighter aircraft operated by various other allied nations; the DoD specifically listed the Jordanian and Bulgarian defense forces as recipients of the engines via the current award. Funds will be drawn from the Pentagon’s foreign military sales budget. Over four decades GE has delivered more than 3,400 F110 engines worldwide, and reportedly they have flown over 11 million hours
Read more at American Machinist
Forever 21 Closing All U.S. Stores After Filing For Bankruptcy
Forever 21 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware, the company announced in a statement Sunday, noting it would implement an “orderly wind-down” of its U.S.-based operations. Forever 21’s website will continue to operate while the company holds liquidation sales at its stores, and Authentic Brands Group—which owns the international intellectual property associated with Forever 21—may license the brand to other operators as Forever 21 seeks a buyer for some or all of its assets, the company said.
Brad Sell, Forever 21’s chief financial officer, said the company has been “unable to find a sustainable path forward” amid competition with “foreign fast fashion companies” that benefit from de minimis, a trade provision used by low-cost retailers like Temu and Shein to avoid paying duties or certain taxes on packages. The company also struggled with rising costs, “economic challenges” impacting Forever 21’s customers and “evolving consumer trends,” Sell said. Forever 21 has about 350 stores in the U.S., according to Reuters, as the company says it operates 540 locations worldwide.