Member Briefing March 25, 2025
S&P Global: US Composite PMI Output Index Rises to 53.5 in March. Manufacturing Component Drops, Services Rise
S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 53.5 this month from 51.6 in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The survey was conducted between March 12-21. The services sector accounted for the rise in the PMI, partly attributed to a thaw in temperatures. Manufacturing slid back into contraction territory after two straight months of growth. The PMI would suggest the economy was regaining speed after hitting a soft patch halfway through the first quarter, in part because of snowstorms and freezing temperatures.
The S&P Global survey's business confidence measure dropped to the second lowest reading since 2022. Its measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs jumped to 60.9, the highest reading since April 2023, from 58.4 in February. It was boosted by the manufacturing gauge, which soared to the highest level since August 2022, attributed to tariffs and rising staffing costs. Manufacturers passed on the higher costs to consumers. Services businesses also faced expensive inputs, but their ability to raise prices for their products was limited by increased competition amid slowing demand. A measure of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services rose to 53.6 from 52.3 last month.
Deutsche Bank Survey: Risk of a US Recession Rise
Chances that the U.S. is heading for a recession are rising, according to a Deutsche Bank survey that raises more questions about the direction of the U.S. economy. The probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months is about 43%, as set by the average view of 400 respondents during the period of March 17-20. Though unemployment remains low and most data points suggest continued if slowing growth, the survey results reinforce the message from sentiment surveys that consumers and business leaders are increasingly concerned that a slowdown or recession is a growing risk.
The combination of higher inflation and slower growth raise the specter of stagflation, a phenomenon not experienced since the early 1980s. Few economists see that era replicated in the current environment, though the probability is rising of a policy challenge where the Fed might have to choose between boosting growth and tamping down prices.
Beijing Pledges Greater Market Access As Top Global Ceos Gather At The China Development Forum
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng has reassured foreign business leaders that Beijing will continue to open up its market and welcome more investment from multinational companies, according to a readout from the Ministry of Commerce. He also discussed deepening economic and trade partnerships between U.S. and China at the meeting Sunday with top executives from Apple, Pfizer, Mastercard, Eli Lilly and other multinational companies, the statement said.
Beijing has been seeking to attract foreign investment as its economy grapples with sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged real estate slump. U.S. tariffs have threatened to slow down its export, a rare bright spot in the faltering economy. China’s State Council unveiled last month an action plan aimed at attracting foreign investment, which outlined steps including removing some restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and improving the process for foreign funds to carry out mergers and acquisitions in the mainland.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Waltz Tells Iran To Give Up Nuclear Program Or 'There Will Be Consequences' – Fox
- Iran Warns Against Attack as US Warships Move Closer - Newsweek
- U.S. Airstrikes Kill 'Key Houthi Leadership' In Yemen, Mike Waltz Says - NBC
- Israel Is Killing Hamas Leaders in Quick Succession - WSJ
- Hamas Remains Potent Threat To Israel Despite Muted Response To Strikes - Reuters
- Netanyahu and Top Aides Think Israel Must Beat Hamas on the Battlefield - WSJ
- Egypt Makes New Proposal To Restore Gaza Ceasefire, Security Sources Say – France 24
- 'You Started This': Attacks On Alawites In Syria Highlight Deep Divisions - NBC
- Iranian Oil Tankers Using Forged Iraqi Documents, Iraqi Oil Minister Says - Reuters
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- US-Russia Talks On Ukraine Start In Riyadh With Focus On Black Sea Ceasefire – France 24
- US Holds Separate Talks With Russians After Meeting Ukrainians To Discuss A Potential Ceasefire – The Hill
- Russian Central Bank Sees Chance Of Prolonged Low Oil Price Cycle - Reuters
- Germany Approves $3.2B in New Ukraine Military Aid – Defense Post
- Fire Rages On At Russian Oil Depot Serving Caspian Pipeline After Drone Attack - Reuters
- Ukraine and Russia Had Cease-Fires Before. The Killing Didn’t Stop. - WSJ
- Trump’s Russia Envoy Downplays Concerns About Putin: ‘I Take Him At His Word’ - Forbes
- Ukraine Railway Traffic Stable After Cyberattack Knocks Out Ticketing System - Reuters
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Detentions At US Border Prompt Canada, UK, Germany, And Nordic Nations To Revise Travel Advice – USA Today
- After Georgescu’s Disqualification, Here’s Who’s Running For President Of Romania - Politico
- China Is Ready to Blockade Taiwan. Here’s How. - WSJ
- Turkey Jails Istanbul Mayor Before Trial, Stoking Opposition Anger - Reuters
- Turkey lurches toward outright autocracy as Erdoğan’s main rival is jailed - Politico
- Wall Street’s Embrace of Turkey Unraveled in Just 30 Minutes - Yahoo
- Greenland Leader Says Upcoming Visit By Trump Officials And Usha Vance Is ‘Clear Provocation’ - Forbes
- Germany’s Merz Loses Leverage As Coalition Talks Sputter - Politico
- Chinese President Xi's Family Holds Millions Of Dollars In Business Interests: U.S. Intel – Nikkei Asia
- Trump Says Any Country That Purchases Oil From Venezuela Will Have To Pay 25% Tariff On Trade With U.S.’ - CNBC
Policy and Politics
New York State Budget Talks: Where Things Stand
Gov. Kathy Hochul and state legislative leaders are wrapping up their first week of budget talks. By all accounts, discussions remain at a surface level, and headed in the right direction despite a curveball from the governor: a late push for some sort of restriction on wearing masks in public. A previous law went by the wayside amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The governor waded into a public acknowledgment that she’s having “conversations” with lawmakers about a mask restriction, with exceptions for health and religious reasons, at an event about measles on Wednesday as the subject of masking for health purposes was raised.
Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie conveyed to reporters that as expected, Hochul’s proposals to modify discovery laws, involuntary commitment standards, and institute a bell-to-bell cell phone ban are early talkers along with MTA funding. Lawmakers’ are resisting Hochul’s bell-to-bell cell phone ban in schools. In their one-house budget, the Senate favored an approach that gives more leeway to students during non-instructional time and accommodates districts who have already tackled the issue. That position appears to be holding at least early on.
Read More at NY State of Politics
Congress Returns For Three-Week Sprint Session
Both the House and Senate come back from recess this week to begin a busy three-week period that’s expected to focus on Republicans’ budget reconciliation agenda, including extending and expanding tax cuts and tightening immigration policy. The top items on the House agenda this week, meanwhile, will include more measures to overturn Biden administration rules. And the Senate will continue to vote on more of President Donald Trump’s nominations. The headliners this week are the nominees to lead the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration.
With a stopgap spending law now in effect through Sept. 30, the Republican majorities in both the House and Senate can fully turn their attention to their budget reconciliation agenda. “We are working in tandem with the White House, with our Senate counterparts, the Republican majority in the Senate, to deliver for the people and get this done.” In the meantime, there are plenty of policies from the Biden administration that Republicans still want to roll back, including energy efficiency regulations related to walk-in coolers and freezers, as well as for commercial refrigerators and freezers more broadly. The House is scheduled to consider joint resolutions this week to roll back both of those rules, with the Senate likely to follow suit. Republicans argue that the Biden standards are not feasible and that they restrict consumer choices.
Trump Ally Visits Beijing to Pave Way for Xi Summit
The U.S. and China stepped up diplomatic efforts as a visiting Republican senator met China’s premier and said he was laying the groundwork for an in-person summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “This was the first step to an important next step, which will be a meeting between President Xi and President Trump,” Sen. Steve Daines (R., Mont.), an ally of the president, said in an interview after meeting Premier Li Qiang on Sunday. “When that occurs and where it occurs is to be determined.”
The Trump administration has said it is using tariffs to force Beijing to take more aggressive steps to address its role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis. In recent weeks, Chinese officials have gone on the offensive against the U.S. over the issue, alleging that Washington was using it as a pretext to attack China’s economy. Daines said in the interview that he conveyed Trump’s concerns over China’s role in the fentanyl crisis and that the meeting with Li was productive. Chinese companies make many of the chemicals used in the production of fentanyl. The chemicals are sold to cartels in Mexico, which then make the drug and transport it over the border to the U.S.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Trump's Push To Calm Tariff Fears Faces Plenty Of Questions – Yahoo Finance
- Top Trump Officials Debated War Plans on Unclassified Chat Shared With Journalist - WSJ
- Judge Won’t Lift Block On Trump Use Of Alien Enemies Act To Deport Venezuelans – The Hill
- Trump Administration Revokes Biden Era ‘Parole” Status For 500,000 Caribbean, Latin American Immigrants – France 24
- Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court to Block Order Reinstating Federal Employees – AP
- Mia Love, First Black Republican Woman Elected To Congress, Has Died Of Brain Cancer At Age 49 -Roll Call
- Teachers union, NAACP sue over Trump order to dismantle Education Department – The Hill
- Businesses Line Up to Criticize Fees on Chinese Ships - USTR
- Tax Revenue Collected By The IRS Set To Plummet, Report Says - CNBC
- Universities Sprint from ‘We Will Not Cower’ to Appeasing Trump - WSJ
- U.S. Lodges New Accusations Against Detained Columbia Protest Leader Mahmoud Khalil - NYT
- The Trump Tracker, Stay Up To Date on the First 100 Days – WSJ
Health and Wellness
Study: Health Coverage Remains Over 10% of Income In 22 States Despite Improvement
A strong job market may have helped make paying for employer-sponsored health coverage a little easier for typical workers in 2023 than in 2020. Kristen Kolb and other analysts at the Commonwealth Fund, a health policy organization, have reported data supporting that conclusion in a new look at workers' spending on premiums and deductibles for employer-sponsored health coverage.
The share of median household income consumed by combined premium contributions and deductibles for family coverage nationally was 10.1 percent in 2023. This figure was 10.8 percent for families in 2020. The lower figure in 2023 is largely accounted for by income growth that has exceeded recent growth in deductible costs. The median household income nationally in 2023 was $80,610, a 4 percent increase from 2022, and ranged from $49,600 for single-person households to $102,800 for families.
Read more at The Commonwealth Fund
Industry News
Johnson & Johnson Invests $55B To Expand U.S. Manufacturing And Build A New Facility In North Carolina
Johnson & Johnson has announced plans to invest over $55 billion to expand its manufacturing, research and development, and technology capabilities in the United States. The company, which produces a broad range of healthcare solutions, will invest in three new manufacturing facilities and expand several existing sites across the company’s Innovative Medicine and MedTech businesses, creating many new jobs. The investment will also be used to improve R&D infrastructure to develop new treatments and implement new technologies to improve drug discovery and development.
This investment will also fund a new 500,000-square-foot biologics manufacturing facility in Wilson, North Carolina, which will produce next-generation medicines for conditions such as cancer, immune-mediated, and neurological diseases. The facility will support approximately 5,000 jobs during construction and create over 500 permanent jobs in the region.
South Korea’s Hyundai Announces $21 Billion U.S. Investment
South Korean conglomerate Hyundai announced Monday a $21 billion investment in U.S. onshoring that includes a $5 billion steel plant in Louisiana, according to people familiar with the plans. The plant is set to hire roughly 1,500 employees and will produce next-generation steel that will be used by Hyundai’s two U.S. auto plants to manufacture electric vehicles. The investment is expected to be announced Monday at the White House by President Donald Trump, Hyundai Chairman Euisun Chung and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry.
Hyundai’s announcement comes as major international conglomerates are racing to dodge tariffs and avoid a trade war ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Japan’s SoftBank are among the major foreign players that have visited the White House in the last two months to announce big U.S. onshoring plans.
Stellantis Offers Buyouts To UAW Employees At More Than 20 Sites In Detroit And Toledo
Stellantis is offering voluntary buyouts to hourly UAW employees at more than 20 Detroit and Toledo area manufacturing facilities and Mopar locations. The locations include Sterling Heights Assembly Plant, Warren Truck, Detroit Assembly Complex, Toledo Assembly Complex, Chelsea Proving Grounds and CTC facilities. The automaker, which owns the Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat brands, is offering lump sum payments for employees with at least one year of service, according to a copy of the offer letter obtained Thursday by the Free Press.
Payments range from $50,000 for workers with at least one year of seniority but less than 15 years to $72,000 for workers with 25 years or more seniority. The offer also includes six months of medical benefits, excluding dental. The offer, which is active from March 24 to May 8, stipulates that management will choose who can take the buyout. Some employees will be able to leave immediately, following a seven-day revocation period, but others might remain until Sept. 30.
Read more at Detroit Free Press
China's SiCarrier Emerges As Challenger To ASML, Other Chip Tool Titans
A state-backed semiconductor tool maker based in Shenzhen, which has connections with Huawei Technologies and has raised hopes of China reducing its reliance on US chipmaking technologies, will make its debut at a trade event in Shanghai next week. SiCarrier, a chip tool maker backed by the Shenzhen government, will launch new products during the three-day Semicon China exhibition, an annual industry event hosted by US-based industry association SEMI.
The start-up has maintained a low profile. Its website lists just four low-tech chip tools under the title of "semiconductor manufacturing" products, while the page for "news information" is blank. The company website offers no information about the company's ownership or senior executives, although it has a "compliance statement" that pledges to respect third-party intellectual property rights. It is unknown whether SiCarrier's showcased products will demonstrate any key breakthroughs, but in an effort to woo new customers the company has come up with a slogan that literally translates as "in the world of chips, there's a new choice, and that's SiCarrier".
Airbus, Boeing Explore Thermoplastics For Future Jets
Facing weak supply chains and a potentially lengthy wait for future engine developments, the world's two largest planemakers are years away from launching projects to replace their decades-old Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 series, which remain in demand. But both told a packed technical audience at a Paris composites fair this month that they were already making progress in researching what the succeeding generation of models could be made of - and in turn how fast they could be built.
The airplanes that future models would replace are built of aluminium under methods perfected over decades. But composites are being considered for their lighter weight and flowing shape. Already heavily used on larger jets like the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, composites save fuel and emissions but currently need time-consuming handling in pressurised autoclave ovens. To meet the demand for much larger numbers of small jets, both planemakers are increasingly studying manufacturing based on novel materials like thermoplastics at faster speeds.
Renewables Stepped Up To Meet Surge In Energy Demand From Rising Temperatures In 2024, IEA Says
Record high temperatures contributed to a sharp increase in the world’s electricity use last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s latest report reveals. Intense heatwaves boosted people’s demand for cooling in many countries, adding to rising consumption from industry, the electrification of transport, and the growth of data centres and AI. These power-hungry factors drove a 2.2 per cent rise in energy demand last year - almost twice its recent average of 1.3 per cent between 2013 and 2023.
The feedback loop between rising temperatures and emissions is one concerning trend in IEA’s Global Energy Review 2025. Fierce heatwaves in China and India - which pushed up cooling needs - contributed more than 90 per cent of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally. But the deployment of solar and wind energy, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps since 2019 now prevents 2.6 billion tonnes of CO2 each year, according to the IEA. That’s equivalent to 7 per cent of global emissions. The expanding supply of low-emissions sources covered most of the increase in global electricity demand in 2024. The amount of new renewable power capacity installed worldwide rose to around 700 gigawatts last year.
Westinghouse Mulls Former J&L Steel Site In Aliquippa PA For Major Microreactor Factory
Westinghouse Electric Co. is scouting the former J&L Steel campus in Aliquippa as a potential home for a large manufacturing plant for its eVinci microreactors. The Cranberry-based nuclear technology firm is in the process of licensing the eVinci design, which departs from current nuclear power plants in several key ways. It's much smaller - Westinghouse advertises truck delivery - doesn't require water or outside power, and comes pre-fueled to generate about five megawatts of power for eight years.
The company is aiming to have the first one up and running by the end of the decade, Leah Crider, Westinghouse's vice president of commercial operations for eVinci, said at a recent datacenter and energy summit hosted by the Pittsburgh Technology Council.
Quantum Computing Companies Saw Over $1 Billion In Revenue In 2024
Quantum technology companies saw revenues of over $1.4 billion in 2024, according to a new report from trade group the Quantum Economic Development Consortium. Over $1 billion of those revenues came from quantum computing companies, while the remainder came from quantum sensing applications. Collectively, the industry saw $5.7 billion in investment last year, according to the report, with $3.1 billion coming from the government and $2.6 billion from venture capital. The United States currently leads the world in the number of pure-play quantum tech companies, the report said, followed by the United Kingdom and Canada.
The report forecasts that over the next few years, revenues in both areas of quantum technology will triple, with quantum computing companies pulling in around $2.2 billion in revenue by the end of 2027 and quantum sensing hitting $915 million in 2028. Currently, the U.S. and Canada account for nearly half the global market for quantum computing, the report said. That growth in quantum sensing —the application of quantum mechanics principles to measure magnetic fields, gravity and other data points — is expected to come from a variety of sectors. For example, the defense industry is interested in this technology as an alternative to GPS satellites. The healthcare industry wants to take advantage of the extreme sensitivity of the technology to develop better patient monitoring and diagnostic devices.
Rare ‘Double Sunrise’ To Dawn Over Northeast U.S. And Canada This Weekend
Skywatchers in northeast U.S. states and eastern Canada may witness a rare celestial event at sunrise on Saturday, March 29, 2025, as the first solar eclipse of 2025 strikes. While not a total solar eclipse like the one on April 8, 2024, this partial solar eclipse will be in progress as the sun rises, creating the rare sight of a crescent-shaped sun on the horizon and the unusual view of separate cusps of the sun appearing to rise independently. The event comes two weeks after a “blood moon” total lunar eclipse was seen across North America and also from the moon.
From North America, the event will happen at sunrise and, from some locations along the terminator — from Nunavik down through Quebec, New Brunswick, and Maine — a crescent sun will rise as a “smiley face.” As it does, the sun will display sharp, pointed cusps known as solar horns or “devil’s horns” to create an eery “double sunrise.” A smaller eclipsed sunrise will be seen across the Atlantic coast in northeastern U.S. states, notably in Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts, and in eastern Canada, most easily in New Brunswick and Quebec. The exact schedule for any location can be found using this searchable map of the eclipse, which contains a simulation of what the observer will see. The Photographer’s Ephemeris is useful for calculating sight lines to the sunrise. Both are important to check, particularly if you want to see a “double sunrise” — though a clear horizon will be necessary.